ken678
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Posts posted by ken678
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Bobby Magern - 4.30 Warick - 5 (ew) Bobbie Magern - Bet365 The yard has an A1 record in bumpers and this is getting backed. I will take the hint
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Re: Kempton 27th Jan (AW) (Twilight) Mutajaaser - Kempton 6:10 - (ew) 7/1 Blue Square The Johnston runner is being backed as though defeat is out of the question - despite being off the track for 18 months. Were it from almost any other yard (great respect for Johnston) I would be very tempted to lay. Will go instead for the other one being backed - surely we get the place money at teh very least
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Re: Kempton 27th Jan (AW) (Twilight) 4.40 Kempton - Lay 1.93 - Betfair - Glen Lass (available £295) Poor race even for its type and though the fav has an obvious chance there are a couple that could well hunt it up. Moore's runner is an obvious candidate and Rufus Roughcut appears tp be attracting a bit of interest. Quite happy to lay most things oods on at this level- a lot down among the dead-men in races like these are doggy as well as poor
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Re: Lingfield 27th Jan (AW) Fly By Nelly - 4.30 Lingfield - 8.5 (ew) Bet Fred Shown consistent bits of form at this level and holds as good a chance as any here. By no means a certainty but will be very disappointed if we don't at least collect the place money - especially with assistance from one of the more experienced pilots
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Re: Huntingdon 27th Jan 1.50 Huntingdon - Mille Chief - Lay Betfair 1.29 (£1088 available Betfair) Obviously a class animal with every chance but 1.29!!!! Come on. There are other decent horses in the race and betting against Henderson has not been a profitable tactic lately - to name but one. Don't know exactly what the state of the course is but since there was a precautionary inspection presumably not to hot. 1.29!!! Bah humbug (even if it trots up by 30lengths!!)
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Re: Leicester 26th January 1.40 Leicester - LAY - Queen Poline - Betfair 1.96 - £46 @ 1.95 and £187 @ 1.96 available Torn between laying this and (small stakes) backing (ew) Holoko Heights, which is a remarkable 36 on betfair. It certainly ran miserably last time but any horse can be allowed one off-day and on its form prior to that is entitled ti start almost favourite here. Will chicken out though and lay the fav instead. Apart from Holoko there are at least a couple of others quite capable of turning teh fav over - and it takes a VERY brave man to take very short prices in the mud at Leicester.
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Re: Leicester 26th January Leicester 15:40 – Its All About You – Betfair 6.4 Not at all sure I should be “backing†this one now – may well be a (considerably) better price later – and I wouldn’t mind an ew saver. However all that being said I love things like this – it is what makes the sport so fascinating for me. It may be just another horse out for a “normal†run – and it holds a reasonable chance. It might just though be one set aside for a touch. This is the perfect sort of race for it. It obviously wants a stiff track – see where it has run before – and on the face of it 2 ½ miles is its trip. Sellers/amateur riders’ races are ideal for a tilt at the ring and McManus doesn’t keep many “poor†horses that don’t pop in at least once in their career. It has shown slivers of form and first time tongue tie answers any awkward questions of “improvement†should the need arise. Don’t know anything about the pilot – other than if she wasn’t up to the job McManus/O’Neill wouldn’t put her up on something with a real chance – and if it hasn’t got a real chance it doesn’t matter!
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4.10 Leicester – Uncle Eli (ew) Min Stakes It isn’t usually a great idea to back a horse that has more letters than numbers before its name – and as Uncle Eli boasts – UPPUU you are entitled to wonder whether it is trying to tell us something (up yours perhaps!?). The animal is obviously a dog – but a dog with some ability – and on that basis flogging it up the Leicester hill in the mud over further than it has ever run before seems a questionable solution. Rowe’s is a shrewd handler though who does “better than he should†in my book with the horses he has and maybe he thinks going that little bit steadier, as they will over 3 miles, might sweeten the beast up. Certainly not one to have the sweetbreads on but I will venture the minimum (ew) with interest. Pity we aren’t allowed a couple of picks – without Uncle Eli in the field I would fancy Grand Lodge as sporting ew shot.
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Re: Africa » MTN Africa Cup of Nations (10-31 jan 2010) Zambia v Nigeria - Draw - Stan James - 3.6 Nigeria have been underperforming from all accounts in what must still be a somewhat nervous tournament. With any kind of luck Zambia will be able to maintain parity for at least the first 90 mins even if Nigeria are expected to prevail in the end.
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Lingfield 15:45 – Rimsky –ew – SP A decent sort of horse who looks as though it would stay 6 miles in the mud. It has run well (and been quietly fancied) in good races in its time and whilst it has never quite hit the heights may have enough to figure prominently here. The distance is a worry (2miles too short!!) but the going looks ideal and it may appreciate the return to conventional obstacles – not entirely convinced that the attempt to turn it into a cross-country horse has been a success. Forecast to go off at about 10/1 – looks fair value.
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2.10 Fontwell – SP(ew) – Over the Flow – A decent sort of race – with plenty having chances. Many (price-wise) seem better fancied then Over the Flow which is forecast to go off at around 14/1. The yard (not one of the biggest but shrewd enough) obviously think something of the horse (which presumably went wrong in 2007) to persevere with it and if you look back it has (i) decent bits of form and (ii) has run in the odd decent race – again suggesting it has shown something at home. I also like the extra 10lbs off its back – counts for more in the mud – and though I confess I know nothing of the lad riding but he has two winners from his last four rides (both for this yard) which suggests that he is no mug. Hope to get a good run at a decent price.
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Re: Ascot 23rd Jan Ascot 3:10 - Skybet 16/1 (ew) - Frontier Dancer THe form the Nicholls yard is in (and with the form in the book)the fav demands utmost respect - however always believe in following the money in these sorts of races - especially when it comes for a runner from a top yard, Twiston Davies has had a mixed season but it seems to me they fancy this one.
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Re: Haydock 23rd Jan Haydock Park: 3:30 - Jaunty Flight - 9.5 (ew) Vic Chandler Cracking race as you would expect with plenty holding perfectly good chances. The sel relishes the mud and (along with others) perfectly entitled to win this. Would not hav e picked however, aftersuch a long lay-off, if it were not being nibbled at - currently shorter on Betfair than here. Interesting
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Re: Wincanton 23rd Jan Magot de Grugy 8/1 ew - Blue Square - Wincanton: 3:00 The Alners have been in cracking form this season and the selection has shown enough to figure here. It loves the mud and is getting weight from all its serious rivals. Nearly always regret saying this but I would be very suprised if we don't at least run into a (profitable) place.
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Ospreys v Leicester Tigers - Leicester Tigers 2.25 ToteSport Cracking game with both teams needing to win if they are to progress. It goes without saying the it might well be close - but I am a rugby fan of he old belief - forwards win matches - backs lose them. I think the Leicester pack will overwhelm the Ospreys and (at this time anyway) 2.25 looks generous.
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Re: Wolverhampton 22nd Jan (AW) (Twilight) Well done - just nicked it !!:clap
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Re: Wolverhampton 22nd Jan (AW) (Twilight)
At least right on the first bits - can lay at 1.20 the fav - and get 1,000 for my £2 on the odd Berry runner. That's 2 out of three - only need the resuly now for the treble:cheersWolverhampton 6:05 Duellist - Lay Betfair 1.27 (£973 available 15.57) Have stated reasoning before re these very short prices. The horse obviously ought to win unless one of the newcomers is someything special. But the price? Has started fav on its first two runs (albeit at less silly prices) but beaten both times. May well be third time lucky but I'll take my chance. Sorry I can't lay it later - I think its looks as though it will come in further. [Just an observation - I have said before that I think the poor beleagured yard of Alan Berry will land a coup sometime - its runner here is interesting to say the least (that IS NOt the same as saying I think its in witha realistic chance!) but just to avoid the sheer frustration of missing the coup I will have the satutory£2 on with BEtfair. Not yet (at 210) expect to get at least 500] -
Re: Wolverhampton 22nd Jan (AW) (Twilight) Place the Duchess - 8.05 Wolverhampton - 20/1 (ew) Bet Can't make head nor tail of the race - a pin would be as much use as my form reading opinion, HOWEVER I do like the betting on the above and will venture a small interest
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Re: Wolverhampton 22nd Jan (AW) (Twilight) You're probably right - at least one of us will be happy - 50:50 shot - not bad.
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Re: Wolverhampton 22nd Jan (AW) (Twilight) Wolverhampton 6:05 Duellist - Lay Betfair 1.27 (£973 available 15.57) Have stated reasoning before re these very short prices. The horse obviously ought to win unless one of the newcomers is someything special. But the price? Has started fav on its first two runs (albeit at less silly prices) but beaten both times. May well be third time lucky but I'll take my chance. Sorry I can't lay it later - I think its looks as though it will come in further. [Just an observation - I have said before that I think the poor beleagured yard of Alan Berry will land a coup sometime - its runner here is interesting to say the least (that IS NOt the same as saying I think its in witha realistic chance!) but just to avoid the sheer frustration of missing the coup I will have the satutory£2 on with BEtfair. Not yet (at 210) expect to get at least 500]
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Re: Catterick 22nd Jan (Jumps) Nous Voila - Bet Fred (ew) 10/1 - Catterick 12:50 Won races when with (Martin) Pipe some time ago - inc a good Class 1 at Haydock. Obviously not what it was (many ex MP horses might say that!) but woiuldn't need to be anything like its bes to win this,. Change of stable to a small yard might just workk the oracle - and its being nibbled at
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Re: Wolverhampton 21st Jan (AW) (Twilight) Good call Billy!
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Re: Wolverhampton 21st Jan (AW) (Twilight) Army of Stars 22/1 Stan James 18.20 Wolverhampton Only just noticed this - and too late to enter for tipping comp. Great respect for Jamie Osborne's ability to land a touch - and with the favoutite in the race and the (very tentativr) selection unraced (and owned by him) no inquiry of any sort if it were to win. May of course be nothing at all going on - but I will venture twopence each way in the real world just in case!
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Re: Wolverhampton 21st Jan (AW) (Twilight) No sooner the word than the deed! Another 200 days like this and I'llbe breaking even!!:nana:clap
Ffos Las - 28/1/10
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Ffos Las - 28/1/10 Ffos Las 4:45 - Celtic Carol - 5.5 (ew) Bet 365 Has an obvious chance - and although a lot more are coming over these days it isstill an expensive trip to come from Ireland for a possible £1,000 if you think you have no chance - and you get AP thrown in for nothing!