ken678
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Posts posted by ken678
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Re: Kempton 22nd Oct (AW) (eve) Kempton 8:50 Shaded Edge 11 (ew) Paddy Power The selection only just failed to get up over course and distance in a similar race last time. Partnered by Haley Turner it might just go one better this time. It is a competitive heat and there are at least three or four others, headed by the runners from the Jarvis and Charlton yards, with claims - but not better ones in my view - so I will follow the perceived value and go along with Shaded Edge – and Haley Turner is a bonus – I think the fact that she is a girl still “masks” what a good jockey she is – I would put her in the top two or three now – she doesn’t lose many races she should win and still doesn’t get the plaudits she deserves.
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Re: Kempton 22nd Oct (AW) (eve) Kempton 8:20 - Rawaaj - 7.5 Coral (ew) Obviously not one of the stable stars and interesting that Stoute/Maktoum have persisted with this 3YO gelding. Should do better over this trip (on its breeding) and a gaffe track on a wet Thursday night is still not the usual habitat of the connections either so that should not be ignored. On the basis of all that I can only think that they think it capable of winning at least one race at some stage – and this one, whilst not absolutely desperate, is pretty poor so in the words of the old joke maybe tonight’s the night! If it came from a lesser (or cuter!?) yard you would also note first run in a handicap after three quiet runs over distances far to short – have Sir Mark and Sir Michael shared a quiet beer?
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Re: Worcester 21st Oct 3.50 Worcester - Pride of Dulcote - LAY Betfair - (£100 at 1.37,£532 @ 1.38 available c11.25) Annoyed I didn’t have time to enter anything yesterday. I have banged on about first time up Novice chasers at length and the silly prices they can go off at - so whilst the 1/5 shot of Nicholls hacked up the 1/3 Hobbs runner ended up on the floor – a decent return on laying the pair. Today there is, as the Post says, a disappointing turn out for the novice chase - but it includes another Nicholls/Ruby Walsh runner. Forecast to be 1-2 on its chasing debut it represents another horse that fits our lay profile. Undoubtedly a good horse over hurdles and I give ground to no-one in my admiration for Nicholls/Walsh but as stated so often before that sort of “pedigree†can give rise to silly prices. Indeed the form figures for Pride of Dulcote, ridden by Ruby Walsh are – UFF8 !!!! And that over hurdles!! Again not saying it won’t win but is that the form of a 1-2 shot????
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Re: Southwell - 18th October - AW 3:15 Southwell - Wise Dennis- 25/1 (ew) Paddy Power A horse that has obviously fallen out with the game. There can’t be many times that horses that have won what Wise Dennis has won run at Southwell. His last three runs though had a total of 42 runners – and the selection has managed, in total, to beat only one of them. Prima facie not a great recommendation – not a great recommendation on any basis – but if the horse retains half of its old ability it looks a potential good thing here. Of course the horse could simply have thrown in the towel – in which case no matter how low you go it is unlikely to win – but it is from a good yard who would not, knowingly, flog a totally bad horse so on that basis – and at the price – it is worth a minimum stakes interest.
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Re: Wolverhampton 17th Oct (AW) (eve) Wolverhampton 9:20 - William Hill - 10/1 (ew) Wakita The invasion of the Irish has been remorseless this season and this could be another one. The form in the book is more than good enough to win this and I doubt they are sendig it over to Wolverhampton on a cold and drizzly Saturday night (that really is a grim prospect) if the horse was not fit enough to do itself justice despite a short lay-off. It is a keen heat on paper - a number in with a shout - but the travel (and the fact that it appears to have been nibbled at) persuades me its worth a go,
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Re: Newmarket 17th Oct (Champions Day) 2:25
Beethoven is obviously not the first string here but jockeys sometimes pick the wrong one. Coolmore have many horses to name and do the rounds with various subject groups. In the opinion of the writer Beethoven could give two stone and a healthy beating to Mozart and Mahler in the composing stakes and if the same holds true on the turf we are in with a shout! More seriously the horse is back to what appears to be its best distance – though rain would be nice– and (and this is the real reason for venturing a small e/w suggestion) this is a VERY late foal (2nd April) for a Coolmore runner – a few months can make a big difference early in a horse’s two-year career. Visored first time who knows - the horse might surprise everyone, it has happened before and I am sure (on what it has actually achieved) it would not be 66/1 were it the “first string†of a major stable instead of being perceived as a makeweight.Newmarket -
Re: Cheltenham 16th Oct 2.55
Cheltenham - - Betfair -LAY Snap Tie 1.66 (£151 at 1.64, £1,575 at 1.65 at c 11.00am)
Staggered at the price. Not saying it can't (or won't) win but only a maniac takes this price about a horse, however good over hurdles, first time up over fences - and atCheltenham . It is preciscely because it is a good hurdler that you must ask questions (old man speaking from here!) - even though fences have got progressively easier over the years the technique required from a horse - at the top - is totally different. It is no co-incidence that many many top hurdlers have failed over fences - the form book is littered with them. Top class hurdlers spend as little time as possible in the air - clearing a hurdle by inches or even rapping through the top. A 'chaser (over "proper" fences at least, needs to bend its back and clear a fence properly - keep going through the top of Cheltenham fences and the horse will be at best knackered and at worst on the floor. Even if the thing trots up by 20l I will still say this is a cracking bet (lay).Hobbs -
Re: Brighton 15th Oct 5:00 Brighton - Raimond Ridge - 33/1 Stan James (EW) Hummed and hawed a bit about this – unless I am misreading the form this thimg has as good a chance as any here on some of its previous runs in better company. Much put off by the price – but then again don’t look a gift horse in the mouth! I like Gannon riding for the bigger yards – she seems to have a good record and can produce again here
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Re: Nottingham 15th Oct Nottingham 2:40 - Turf Trivia 20/1 (ew) SportingBet Always like horses that have had just the three runs when they first appear in a nursery – just enough to get handicapped. The horse has run well(ish) in its first runs and has certainly run as though the extra distance will help. The yard isn’t in great form but the eye is caught by the booking of job-jockey Jimmy Fortune – not a usual booking for the yard – so although this may well turn out later to have been a decent race I think we will get a good run for our money – at 20/1 with sportingbet.
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Re: Ludlow 15th Oct 2.50 Ludlow- Finnegans Rainbow - 101 ew Bet Fred This has to be an early contender for worst race of the season. The Irish raider will start favourite I guess but it is a very moderate animal and Feelings appear to be getting backed. I shall row in with Finnegans Rainbow however – a desperate animal but not markedly worse than the others. I have in fact tipped the beast before (ran in line with its price c100/1!!) but remain undaunted!! It is in fact being nibbled at – could have had 200/1 with BetInternet when I started this missive now only 100/1! Obviously cascades of cash coming for it! It has won a race and on its day must have as good a chance as any here
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Re: Lingfield 11th Oct (AW) Digger Derek (IRE)- Lingfield 4:10 - 6.5 ew Bet 365 I think this is a two horse race , the selection and the Jarvis runner, Geezers Colours. Will risk a groat on each and the forecast but have plumped for the Fahey runner here simply because of the form the yard is in - they have had an absolutely remarkable run - 25 winers in the last month with many good races amongst them. It has been truly astounding and until it shows signs of tailing off I don't think it would be wise to take a position against a Fahey runner in any race
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Re: Wolverhampton 10th Oct (AW) (eve) Wolverhampton 7:45 - Royal Diamond – Lay 1.8 Betfair (£226 available at c17.10) The big yards don’t tend to over place their horses in races they have no chance in and but Straits of Hormuz (USA) has been running in much better races – and been backed on occasion. I think it has a first rate chance but am going to take the cowards way out and lay the fav instead. Henty Cecil’s horse must have a chance too so 1.8 on the fav – albeit a Sir Mark special by the looks of it seems a silly price to me
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Re: Wolverhampton 10th Oct (AW) (eve) 6.15 Wolverhampton - Sullenberger (ew) - 10 Ladbokes Jamie Osborne has been a great supporter of the all weather from teh off & does well here. Chris Catlin is a slighly unusual jockey booking - last tme he was on this horse was the last time it won. This race is a class below those it has recently been running in and it looks to have every chance. Almost put off by the price - it looks too good - still I'll take the chance.
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Bangor 3:20 – Norma Hill – ew @ SP Has obviously had problems of some sort but at her best is quite capable of winning this – especially with maximum assistance from AP. Have seen the horse run, “in the fleshâ€, a couple of times a year or two back and I thought it might be ungenuine – still do – but if you have a doggy horse you couldn’t ask for a better jockey. The horse may be in for a tough afternoon – hopefully mine might be better
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Re: York - Fri 9th Oct 3:20 York - Felday - 6.5 BetFred Thay say the bigger the field the bigger the certainty - which is just about as much drivel as so many of the others however Felday appears to have an outstanding chance on its last run in the "third division" of the Ayr Gold Cup. Been humming and hawing about picking by which time the price has fallen 2 or 3 points so it is obviously favoured in some quarters.
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Re: Newbury 8th Oct Newbury 17:35 - General Ting - 7.5 Coral ew This looks like a typical Sir mark job - often running over distances too short in the past. Up to a full two miles it looks like one of those free bets to me at this price - has every right to win this - but even if it doesn't we should surely get our money back via the place bet.
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Towcester 14:30 - Rate Field (IRE) - Ran its first race since coming over from Ireland at Worcester and left plenty money in the bookies satchels. Now runs at Towcester - hard to imagine more different tracks. Done enough in Ireland to make it a real good thing if there were any give in the ground - but probably has enough to win a scrubby seller like this anyway.
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Re: Exeter 7th October Exeter 4:50 - The Snail - EW Don't usually like it when they keep swapping a horse between fences and hurdles but in my view this has a much better chance than its projected price so I will ignore my own reservation. Comes from agood yard and has one of the better pilots on board so hopeful.
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Exeter 14:50 - Talimos (IRE) - LAY The Pipe dynasty was built on multiple winners of poor races - often blinkered, visored or tongue tied and though the reliance on that sort has declined they still add to the overall haul. This looks of that sort but it looks moderate and at the projected price looks a good lay - the race it won was not a good one and the race before it looked as though it could be doggy. The weight it gets is useful but it is only a three year old which isn't. Could obviously see the AP horse beating it along with others and less obviously Tubby Littlejohnswhich has come in for bits of support (so far totally unrewarded!) in most races it has run.
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Re: Catterick 6th Oct Catterick 2:30 - Love Match - A relatively late foal,nicely bred and judging by some of its initial entries is thought something of at home. From a yard which does not often slum it 'oop North at the gaffe tracks so must have a good chance in what appears to be a poor race. Draw important here and though not draw the best - but good enough". Will have an ew saver on Berry's horse - interesting that the local paper naps it
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Re: Redcar 3rd October Redcar 15:15 Avonrose (ew) Another possible Johnston winner at a juicy price. Not over worked under a welter weight last time and has shown a bit of temperament but has also shown enough ability if his quirks have been ironed out, to take a hand here
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Re: Epsom - Sat 3rd Oct Worth A King's Epsom 15:45 An unusual horse on the face of it for the Stoute yard - as evidenced by a win last time at Wolverhampton. Wolverhampton! Not his usual stamping ground. Maybe its the yard's punting horse for the lads - it has a certainly been backed today - again unusual for a Stoute horse
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Re: Epsom - Sat 3rd Oct Epsom 14:35 - Trailblazing Last run at Doncaster too bad to be true but looks almost a "good thing" on its previous Ascot win andmight be one of what I think might be a hatful of Johnston winners today
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Stratford-On-Avon 2:50 - Zonic Boom (FR)- 24 Betfair Being a follower of sellers & oddments I tipped this the other day when it was sent miles from its beautiful Shropshire home for a day by the sea at Yarmouth to run in a scrubby flat seller. It seemed such an odd entry that I thought something might be afoot - if it was no-one appeared to tell the horse (or the bookies for that matter) as in finshed well out the back at 50/1. Maybe it was just a pipe-opener for this prestigious event? 2m6f over the timber at Stratford certainly looks a more reasonable and realistic target. I always think the form numbders are important don't you - well this lot coldn't be much better for a touch - It has a good jockey on board (last three rides PU, Fell, PU) and a good trainer (last three runners 9/11, PU, PU) whilst the horse itself boasts /8PP. Can't see it getting beat can you?
Doncaster 23rd Oct
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Doncaster 23rd Oct Doncaster 5:10 - Steel Free - Stan James 20/1 ew A tight handicap where the additional 5lbs claimed by the rider might just make the difference - provided of course that the lad can ride! Coming from the yard it does that ought not to be a worry - but you never know. On the book half a dozen are entitled to finish in a heap (ex that claim) so it seems sense to go with the value in the race.