whycantistayawayfromdogs
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Posts posted by whycantistayawayfromdogs
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Re: F1 German Grand Prix 20th July massa decides to wave lewis through there wtf
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Re: F1 German Grand Prix 20th July oh i just looked at some 7 day forecasts but they are usually bullcrap anyway
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Re: F1 German Grand Prix 20th July showers are predicted for todays race...
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Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 ive got furyk top 5 still in with a shout (allbeit a bit of a stretch). I think harrington or kj wins it today if the conditions are a little bit better than other days, and looking at harringtons price id prefer choi at around 5.6 on betfair.
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Re: Cricket: England vs South Africa Test Series englands tail starts at 6 this match and after checking the weather forecast i dont think there will be too much rain about during play (although its just started raining). South Africa will wanna bounce back this time and bowling first is ideal. 2.66 on betfair seems like a good price to me.
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Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 ive been looking at people who have decent accuracy and GIR, I know nothing of the course other than what i have read. I have come up with the following short list, some big prices and some small
The y's are ones i will definately back in some shape or form. The ? are ones i need to look at more closely (so any advice would be greatly appreciated). The numbers are betfair available to back prices, so the final price could well be bigger or smaller.Zach Johnson 220 ? Nick O'Hern 150 ? Jay Williamson 820 ? Woody Austin 260 ? Scott Verplank 180 ? Ian POULTER 100 ? Hunter Mahan 50 y Bart Bryant 330 y Jim Furyk 26 y Steve WEBSTER 730 y -
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Re: Interesting River Spot TBH i would say its more tricky that the UTG didnt cbet the flop than it is tricky that the small blind didnt open. I know that on an ace high flop with a raiser and 3 callers, if im first to act and ive hit a set im probably checking it, donking looks so strong(are you ever donking that flop after that preflop action with anything less than a set) i think if it checks through then playing a diamond turn isnt particularly tricky.
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Re: Interesting River Spot
if you shove and get called by AA or 24d then just cry and reload :pukeI In my mind the only hands that will call a reraise that we beat are 55,33, maybe AKd. So that's a small range but could there be value here to extract from these hands or do people more often turn up with A3,A5,A9,AA,24d? -
Re: Interesting River Spot the small blind didnt play this tricky at all, he was simply check-raising the flop and no one bet (he is standard and not one to worry about). UTG payed it well imo and pretty much had to call the river (probably crying as he did so).
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Re: Interesting River Spot
IM A GENIUS!!! I knew if i mentioned every possible hand anyone could have i would get it right! :lol But seriously the more i looked at it the more it looked like he was hoping someone would bet their ace (or UTG would continue on Ace high board) on the flop and then when they didnt, he realises he has to bet to turn to make single diamonds pay so he puts out a feeler bet (once called he will probly value bet and fold to a raise on a non pairing river. Ones he hits his full house on the river and it comes the 4th diamond he has 'the nuts' in his eyes and bets pot because he knows he has the best hand, and knows hes been unucky if no one has a broadway diamond and he doesnt get paid. The key point was to know how he plays AXs and AX from the small blind in this kind of pot preflop, if he pitches them then you are raising the river, if he plays them then it might be a call.either way i pretty much always get this wrong, if i raise he has afformentioned hand, if i call they show Kd and Qd or lower full houses. To think about it, is there anything to suggest that the small blind doesnt have a lower full house - I mean is his calling range in the small blind (after a number of callers) made up more of suited aces or pocket pairs (is he definately folding unsuited raggy aces in SB here)?? Either way on that board i think his river bet screams ' i have the best hand' (even if he doesnt have the best hand and just puts others on combos of diamonds) -
Re: Interesting River Spot ^ lol that whole post kinda proves i know nothing about hand ranges :-)
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Re: Interesting River Spot either way i pretty much always get this wrong, if i raise he has afformentioned hand, if i call they show Kd and Qd or lower full houses. To think about it, is there anything to suggest that the small blind doesnt have a lower full house - I mean is his calling range in the small blind (after a number of callers) made up more of suited aces or pocket pairs (is he definately folding unsuited raggy aces in SB here)?? Either way on that board i think his river bet screams ' i have the best hand' (even if he doesnt have the best hand and just puts others on combos of diamonds)
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Re: Interesting River Spot id like to hear the argument for folding...??? As said before, in the heat of the moment id be getting it in but the more i look i think the SB shows up with A3s/A5s ( possibly A9s) quite often. I think his bet on the turn could be a bit of a feeler to find out where abouts everyone else is in the hand (assuming he was check raising or check calling on the flop). His bet on the river looks to me like he knows that someone has a diamond they can call with after the two calls on the turn, to me that is why he bets so much. Like i say, in the heat of the moment i shove, if im given 10 minutes to stew i may just call and hope they both have flushes of some sort, and then when they do, curse my stupid non-raising self.
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Re: Cricket: Twenty20 Cup 2008 i took the bait and backed lancashire today...Good of stuart law to let them back in the game by bowling two spinners who just bowls half trackers. why on earth was that spinner forced to bowl out on a pitch that didnt turn at all, and then not bring back your two openers. Well done to anyone who backed Middlesex, youve won.
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Re: Anything really wrong with my play ?
you are playing .05/.1, dont make these kinds of players your benchmark and certainly dont try and put reasons to their actions :lollast related point on this hand, I'll ask a different question, should he have folded to my $1 bet on the turn ? He has 7 outs and is a 15% dog, I bet 3/4 of the pot, surely he should have folded ? -
Re: Cricket: Twenty20 Cup 2008 wow what a toss to win. The ball didnt move at all for the seamers whilst northants were bowling, then a rain shower changes the conditions completely and its moving in, away, bouncing more etc. But i suppose thats what we will have to accept once all cricket is 20:20 in ten years time lol, 1 rain shower can decide an entire game/competition. Has anyone else noticed that 20:20 really draws the 'scumbag' element of society to cricket, not an altogether good idea if they are going to shout ****** all the way through both innings.
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Re: Anything really wrong with my play ?
Like i say i dont play full ring but I laugh my ass off when i see the whole table limp round preflop. I play 6max and generally dont wanna be part of that, pretty much any hand that im not happy raising (be it position, hand strength etc) i will fold out. Like i say though, i play 6max where aggression is the key, 9Ts is a great hand to be increasing your PFR ---> giving yourself an agressive image ---> getting paid when you have a big hand. I guess limping also allows hands that dominate you in for free - K9, Q9 that would probly fold out to a raise (esp at full ring), not to mention K2-?? of the same suit, the last thing we need is to lose our stack flush over flush because we decided to try and beat the fish at their own game! I guess what im trying to say is people who limp a lot get 'unlucky'.I can't believe people are saying they don't like the call preflop when no one has raised, I'm never folding that hand preflop unless there's a huge raise. Once the flop comes down I'd fold as you've totally missed the flop and bluffing with mi ninimum outs is a no brainer. I would either have bet a $1 on the river as it's a kind of blocking bet and gets the same amount of info as $2 or I maybe would have checked called depends on the opponent. -
Re: Anything really wrong with my play ?
I guess but theres a couple of things we need to think about when saying that check calling could be the best option. If we check call we are calling and taking down pots when they are betting with pretty much air, but i dont think you are getting value from a lot of hands you beat that likely check behind. eg. - lower two pairs (although they probably bet, they wont know why they are betting but they will do it any) - any pair that for some reason wants to get to showdown. - any jack - draw and pair that will call a bet on river when they miss because they have a pair! So imo you should probably be bet/folding the river because i think you can assume (readless) that anything you beat isnt raising the river. I think a TPGK type hand probably raises the flop, pretty drawy board. The problem is that because you dont have a full stack you cant really bet/fold the river because of the odds your getting on a call. So i suppose if you arent folding to an all in raise on the river then you might as well shove yourself, you might manage to fold out flopped two pair J5,J6 (pretty unlikely) The more videos i watch on SHNL the more i realise the value of bet/folding - you get value from hands you beat and lose the minimum against hands you lose to. In this case bet/fold was probably the move (unless youve got a read that really suggests that the guy is play TPGK like that)In particluar, check calling the river would clearly be the way to go. -
Re: Anything really wrong with my play ?
you have a big problem if you only read people for hands you beat all the time:eekI was ready to check / fold the river, the 9 hits and I think happy days. I read his reraise as either someone over playing TPTK or a steal with a busted flush draw. -
Re: Anything really wrong with my play ? I hate preflop but then i dont play full ring, maybe limping early is standard i have no idea - I understand that in a limpy game its tempting to just join in and limp loadsa hands from any position but then you are as bad as everyone else. Post flop I just cant understand the bet, you have absolutely nothing in a 5 way pot, not even overcards. You will get called more often that you fold everyone out, i dont know the odds for random hands but someone will have flopped something and people generally dont like letting go of any hand at this level, made or drawing. I disagree that this is a 'steal' or a 'bet to find out where you are', you should simply be dumping this, why get so tricky at this level when there are so many clear edges that you can already exploit. I make the same mistake as you a lot on the turn...If i cont bet a flop i have missed and then catch a little on the turn I will try and get tricky and kinda fall in love with it. I know you think hes drawing and dont want to give a free card but if hes getting fruity with a jack or two pair here you are taking yourself to value town. Imo you shouldnt be too bothered with protecting your hand because you havent invested enough to be worried. Although i tend to think villain is raising a jack or two pair on the turn because hes worried about seeing a lot of rivers that complete draws...They basically dont understand how to get value from a hand so will genenerally just try and get it in before the river. SO i guess we can assume he is drawing, but we cant be sure. I kinda like the value bet on the river, once he raises you are almost certainly beat, but i guess with 2.50 to call into a 12 dollar pot you possibly have to call (i never really get the maths behind this but i suppose you look at his range and see what % is beating you). He NEVER has a busted draw here, by saying that you are in one breath giving him credit for a decent move and also calling him a complete spaz - 1. to steal (or put pressure on by raising) with a busted flush draw is a move that you generally dont see at lower levels, so you are saying hes a decent player. 2. you are saying he made that move but gave you over 4/1 on the call rendering the move completely pointless. I think you are only saying he could have a busted flush draw to make the call seem reasonable, although i dont think you have to. I babbled a bit there but heres the key to this. Reload to 10$ before the hand and then you may be able to get away from it on the river. He has 8.95 so thats another 2.90ish, so you would be calling over 5 dollars into a 18ish dollar pot, hmmm still good value but like i say you are pretty much never winning the way he played it, if that was me i would be sighing when i saw that nine after making a plan to check fold the river ,you will find better spots. Another thought is. - if you suspect you are losing on that river (and im not sure its clear until he raises) then you could opt to check-call becuase i think he value bets a monster here (ive seen people minvaluebet this kinda line because they think you arent calling anything else lol) I dont think he shoves if you check to him so maybe thats a cheaper way out. But like i say, its not clear that you are losing until the raise is made. What an unstructured piece of rubbish that post was, hope i got across what i was trying to though. Wish there was more cash threads on this forum so post away people. :nana:nana Oh and to answer the question preflop - possibly (6max player) flop - yes turn - maybe river - possibly but i think you probably played this better than any other street.
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Re: British Grand Prix 6th July have ferrari ever done this grand prix thing before?!?! kimi should be easily winning this but for bad decisions is easily losing.
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Re: Live hand from the GUK Newcastle
agree min reraise gains nothing thus making it impossible to define villains range etc BUT i think maybe the key here is that he checks behind on the turn, he seems weak all through the preflop action until the river, is he happy with the river? possibly :\:crymaybe AK spades, but you have two kings so less likely. is this why you dont tell us the suits of your kings?I've never understood the point of minraising in NLH so I find it hard to define a range for. -
Re: Live hand from the GUK Newcastle immediate reaction is QQ with the line he took, but since this aint a bad beat thread i really dont know.
Cricket: Twenty20 Cup 2008
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
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Re: Cricket: Twenty20 Cup 2008 Gillespie is in the squad although i read somewhere that he isnt going to play because of ICL connections and the danger of 'the champions league' banning us or something (maybe this has been resolved). Ben wright isnt suited to this sort of cricket whilst alex wharf has been plain awful in this competition. Very surprised not to see watkins in the squad as hes been our best non-spinner (or was in the only tv game and has been decent in other games). Tom maynard is like his dad, can go big and therefore i hope he plays. Im hoping to see the following...: Grant, Hemp, Maynard, Powell, Wallace, Dalrymple, Croft, Harrison, Gillespie, Cosker, Harris. With perhaps croft or harrison (a la Napier :P) accompanying grant at the top of the order (with hemp batting further down). Looks like durham are going to field a side packed full of internationals [kolpak scum et al] so it should be an interesting game...