Hopefully it will be Day 1 of The Championships at Randwick in Sydney on Saturday although the area is having a crazy amount of rain so it could be called off. What is certain is that the ground will be very testing and that is going to be a big factor in how things play out. I have taken a look at 3 races on the card.
Race 2
This is a Group 2 over 2600m and the main bet is the ex-Stoute trained Circle Of Fire. He was 3rd in the Lingfield Derby Trial last year and then 4th in the Queens Vase at the Royal meeting. Since going to Oz he has had 2 4ths over 1600m and 1900m showing promise both times. As his form in the UK suggests he should relish stepping up to this sort of trip. He has yet to run on a testing surface so that is an unknown, but otherwise he has a leading chance.
At a bigger price Hopeful looks to have a fair chance. Well beaten 1st up, but he needs further than the 2000m that day. What really interests me though are his ground stats. He has no platings in 7 starts on good ground, on soft ground he has been in the 1st 3 10 times in 14 starts and in 3 starts on heavy ground 2 have seen him in the platings. There should be big improvement from him up in trip on a testing surface.
Circle of Fire @ 4/1 with most bookies
Hopeful e/w @ 16/1 with most bookies
Race 7
The big sprint on the card is the T J Smith. I’m not sure Imperatriz is in as good form as she was in her last prep and I’m happy enough to look elsewhere. I Wish I Win is 1st up here, but he does have a solid 1st up record and I think he can go close to winning this for the 2nd year running. That came on a Heavy 9 and his last start saw him finish a slightly unlucky 2nd in the The Everest when he didn’t get a clear run until the final 200m.
The other one I like is Bella Nipotina. She is a solid mare who has been running well so far this prep. She loves a heavy track and that could easily see her improve enough to hit the frame at least here.
I Wish I Win @ 14/5 with Bet365
Bella Nipotina e/w @ 9/1 with most bookies
Race 8
The Doncaster Mile is a big field handicap and Another Wil was a short price favourite for this, but he then drew stall 21 which is going to be a worry. He is a horse on the upgrade though and he was impressive last Saturday at Rosehill. I do like the horse, but this is the hardest race he has been in, he has a shocking draw and I’m not sure about the 7 day back up for him either. He’s around the 11/4 mark and it is hard to say that is value.
With that said I am look to take 3 at double figure odds and then another couple at huge odds to small stakes. Plenty of UK bookies are going 4 places as well (on Aussie rules it is only 3 places despite the field size). All these have wet track form and look to be coming here in solid form. Detonator Jack, Southport Tycoon and Zougotcha are those at shorter double figure odds and the 2 at massive odds are Pericles and Semana.
I should just say Berkshire Shadow runs in this on his 2nd start in Oz and he his a huge price if he can run to the form he showed in the Lockinge or the Queen Anne. He was average in that 1st run at Flemington though.
Detonator Jack e/w @ 11/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes
Southport Tycoon e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill (N/R)
Zougotcha e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill (N/R)
Pericles e/w @ 50/1 with William Hill
Semana e/w @ 33/1 with William Hill (N/R)
Hi @Martyj22,
You're in the right place then!
Welcome to the Punters Lounge. You may like to check out the 'at the races' forum which is full of plenty of like minded people.
There's threads there to place your fancies and to check out what everyone else is thinking.
Good luck going forward.
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