ThunderDan9

I saw the Heta match, and he was... mediocre... like very mediocre... or as you said: half decent 😀 or maybe 30% decent😀... still, it's Dolan in a longer format match, Heta should win by a few legs, I think. Doets was more of a danger to him in my opinion. I pass though.

Yes... especially the MVG performance was perfection... sadly for him he (just like Price) is so prone to have a bad game nowadays... I don't like any of the games tonight bettingwise, maybe, maybe Woodhouse, but I think I just follow you on the Searle outright, it makes sense.

On a sidenote, I think I'm going to try Ross Smith to win the WC... it's just a hunch.

At least, a very easy winner for you, daveg, nice job!

And of course all three of these dogs win - while I put the +2,5 Woodhouse and +2,5 Zonneveld in a silly accy which lost on Kuivenhoven. 😀

Ok, LOL... this is ridiculous... Veenstra back to 5-5, has a big lead in the final leg - then Wattimena makes the 164 (!!!) checkout... wow.

Yes, Clayton and Cullen look too short, as does Cross to me as well.

Vandenbogarde was my first thought as well, as Cambell looked terrible.

Oh yes... the other one I like to fade is Ratajski, but I missed it this time.

Fantastic job, Fader! And all your outrights won too.

In the evening I like once again the first match, Doets as a 2,37 underdog again De Sousa. I think that in a first round short match, it should be closer to evens.

I managed to get a net profit of exactly ZERO with my four picks, and I'm even very lucky with that... the classic mistake: I should have gone with only one pick, THE strongest hunch. All three of the losses were pretty pathetic performances... I mean, a 68 (!) average (Kist) at this level?!?

In the afternoon session, I like: Szaganski vs White 2,10 De Decker vs Vandenbogarde 1,67 Kist vs Pietreczko 2,38 Jim Williams vs VDB 1,91 (although... maybe not, in general this would be a silly price... but VDB (almost like DVD) is so bad nowadays...) I think I like the fitst one the most. Szaganski showed great form on the last PC events.

It starts tomorrow, the last event before the World Championship. My first thought was of course Ross Smith, but he is in that Price/MVG quarter... the fourth quarter looks to be the most "favorable" to be in at first glance... maybe Heta? If Humphries doesn't win everything (but he does, lol), Searle would actually make some sense... he hit that 9-darter at the Grand Slam, and then was eliminated by... Humphries. And in the second quarter, Gurney looks to have a relatively nice draw... he has good stats, but hasn't won anything in ages... maybe now? With the longer format from the third round on, the chances of a longshot winner are not that good... I was thinking about Kist, just on the vague assumption he could somehow recreate that form he had in that short spell... he has been useless since then though...

Well... it seems that Luke-Gary was the REAL finals... Anyways, this is the year of Humphries, for sure. Last year, Michael Smith win the Grand Slam and then... well, we'll see.

Actually, I kind of like all the underdogs tonight... OK, let me be more precise: I won't bet on any of the favorites. I'm on Noppert on the outright, and it is a bit surprising to see him as a dog against Bunting... but on second look it might be correct having seen their autumn form. Still, I might pick Noppert at this odds, if I wasn't on his (quite slim) outright chances. The one I like the most is Buntz to beat Gilding at 2,75. I mean, Gilding as a 1,44 fav in a major seems odd... and Buntz hasn't played worse than him in this tournament... even with the longer format, Buntz might win, I think.

At first glance I thought Searle's odds are too high... but then again, it's a long format game, and there is nothing wrong with Humphries's form... I don't EVER trust Ratajski... 😀 Price-Anderson should be a cracker... who knows... Dobey-Wade... who knows... I think I sit this one out, and just enjoy the games. Good luck with your picks.

Great pick, with the acca, it came in surprisingly easy! And I was watching the Humphries match, I was so sure of the 5-0, he was so close... DVD really needs some rest or therapy on his shoulder. As for tonight... can Greaves once again win? Her oods look a bit too high to me after those two rounds. And poor Chizzy already eliminated (while Buntz (!) already qualified)... With the pressure off, Chizzy should win on paper, but who knows in a meaningless match... at least Buntz has the motivation to win the group... so the odds don't seem right to me.

Absolutely world class performance... just... where was THIS Anda for a decade?

I like Lennon to win against DVD at 2,55... DVD looked terrible yesterday, and had his (nowadays) usual checkout woes... at least Lennon was up 2-0 against Humphries before losing 2-5, but there is a gulf between Humphries and present day DVD.

Nothing really screams at me as an outright winner... I totally agree with daveg that probably Price or Humphries are going to win it... and even though Michael Smith is not in good form, he is still a danger in the top half of the draw, Anderson, Dobey and Wade are all there too... So maybe we should try someone from the seemingly less stacked bottom half. Chizzy is my favorite player, and I kind agree with Fader's pick, but I wouldn't be shocked if he even goes out in the group phase... it's all mental, can he bring that ET&PC form to a major or does he crumble again? Maybe the group phase format might help him actually, as if he survives he already has three games under his belt... Aspinall is a strange one this year... he has terrible form in lesser events, but raises his game in the majors, big time. He is for sure a contender, but I don't trust him. And he is in a very tricky group, maybe the trickiest one. So in the end I went with Chizzy and then Noppert at 40. I think Noppert has a nice draw, he should easily qualify from his group and then he faces one of Wright/Chizzy/Bunting if I'm not mistaken... I liked his game in the EC, and he might have a chance in a bottom half that seems to be quite open.

Liverpool

Price, Chisnall, Heta, Cross. The archenemies of a longshot winner, LOL.

Well... that's... that's an unexepected pool of semi-finalists... And Noppert-Price was one of the weirdest matches I have ever seen... 0-7, then 10-1...

OK, I'm going with Pietreczko at 3,50... it' the same odds he had in the SF of the last ET... where he won 7-6 against MVG (at the same venue as tonight), then he went on to win that ET tournament, then beating Ross Smith here in the first round... betting on the home dog at such odds is a bet I have to take, and I won't regret it even if MVG happens to easily win this time.