madnesstiger
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Posts posted by madnesstiger
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Re: My progressive system. :welcome Martin (from Poland) I'll look forward to seeing your future bets, and wish you good luck :ok MT
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Re: £20 Bank Builder {Ton up! 100 winning bets...!} Well Done on the first 100 mate. Here's to the next... :cheers
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Re: UEFA Europa League » Nov 05
Your post persuaded me to pick these two tonight as well. Shame I didn't go for the double, but 2 decent-sized singles came home (eventually - last second winner from Salzburg!) :) Nice short tip mate - but very effective! :ok MTAdriano is named for Shakhtar and Janko and Svento are named for Salzburg. Going for a win for both of these. Both @ 2.15 Blue Sq. Also got them as a double.:hope -
Re: UEFA Europa League » Nov 05
Good write-up mate, but you do realise Ajax are playing against Zagreb in Croatia tonight, and not against Bucharest in Romania?! *** Thanks for all the write-ups guys, some quality info imo. I'm taking (already taken!) Ajax @ 2.02 away vs Dinamo Zagreb. From their 12 domestic league games, Ajax have a GF/GA record of 40:10!! I know it's only Holland and goals come easily, but they've still managed some 12 goals extra than PSV, who have the 2nd best strike-force. Their 10 conceded is also equal-best in the division. Granted, Zagreb also have a great record in their respective league, but the opposition in Croatia is somewhat a lower level than that in the Netherlands. With the match being played to a crowd as useful as cardboard cut-outs, and with the team news as mentioned previously in this thread, I can only see an away win here. Good luck all. :)Just posting up a tip or 2 after reading some of the comments beforehand D Bucharest vs Ajax For me Ajax are still a class side however away from home in Bucharest i wouldn't fancy anyone and that's why i see the bookies offering around 2.0 for an ajax win instead ive gone for -2.5 GOALS, Ajax don't need to win and i think dynamo know they that Ajax r the better team therefore expect this match to be cagey and one of the teams to scrape it 1-0 -
Re: The 'boucebackability' system ...just seen the price of the book mentioned earlier in the thread, by William Mallios... William Mallios book @ Amazon :loon
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Re: The 'boucebackability' system
I'll second that - an interesting thread. I'm always interetsed when somebody creates their own unique method and you've explained clearly how you go about analysing each match. Credit to you, Sir, and will follow this with interest. :ok MTVery interesting read :clap -
Re: £20 Bank Builder {90+ winning bets...}
Oh, I fancy one alright! I just have to figure out a new strategy. The bankroll's in place, I have some spare time, and I've even crashed Excel a few times already this week with thousands of lines of useless formulas! Only a matter of time, squire! Good luck with tonight's pick :)Cheers captain! You not fancying a GH return yet?! ;) -
Re: £20 Bank Builder {90+ winning bets...} That's #92 in the bag... Keep 'em coming fella! :)
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Re: Repeat Offenders Good luck with this mate :) Will be interesting to see how this pans out. I have something not a million miles away from this in mind for my new GH, although I'm still only in the first week or so of planning. Coming Soon!! MT
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Re: Rez I was quite proud of my rare spot of eagle-eyed awareness with reference to your suspiscious bankroll, however you have convinced me it was a mistake, and am quite sure I may have done similar things in the past! I'll go and ponder your other threads in the systems forum, and will look forward to any info we can prise out of you in the near future! :D MT
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Re: Rez Nice thread so far (especially seeing as you're in profit!). But, is there any reasoning as to why you started with flat stakes of 1 in the original post, and now you are using odd stakes to the cent (2 decimal places!)? Also, you seem to have added more money to the betting kitty in the latest post... you staked 49.72 when you only had 41.18 before. :) Good Luck anyway!
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Re: [u17 World Cup] USA U17 vs MALAWI U17 Cheers HLV! Can't believe USA were as high as evens for this match - was a total mis-match of talent, and it was only that the Americans couldn't shoot if their lives depended on it that limited the score to just 1:0. Malawi were caught offside ~18 times in the match and because of this were never threatening at all. Anyway, game's over now, and the tip won. That'll do for me! Cheers :ok MT
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Re: Roulette. I remember trialling a slight variation in that I'd turnoff all animations etc to make each spin take a fraction of a second, and only started wagering on red (for example) after black had occured, say, 7 times in a row - I thought this was pretty-much failproof... until I witnessed the same colour appear no less than 23 times in a row. I have not touched online roulette since!
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Re: Can I make profit on this system?? lol.. I see the odds for your selections are generally some way off the 11/10 mentioned in the original post!
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Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Not too bad, only 20p down on the first attempt! (ps. I had a nice wager on Young Boys to beat Bellinzona, and was pleasantly suprised to see the home side get their keeper sent off after 14 minutes!) Good luck with the next batch! :ok MT
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Re: [u17 World Cup] USA U17 vs MALAWI U17 FT USA 1:0 Malawi ;) The Americans dominated posession, but were majorly lacking in front of goal. However, a howler from the Malawian keeper in the 2nd half gave Shinsky a goal for USA, who held on for the remainder of the match.
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USA U17 vs Malawi U17 Just been doing a bit of research on this match and believe the home win at 1.68 (Betfair) is a great price.
- The average age of the USA squad is 16.71
- The average age of the Malawi squad is just 15.57
In theory, it is like an U17 team matched-up against an U16 team. The USA squad are all attached to clubs in America (Midfielder Will Packwood is at Birmingham City, England) The Malawi squad are largely 'unattached' players, with just 5 players attached to a club. Malawi have 2 players suspended for this match (1 defender, 1 midfielder) after being sent-off in their first match against UEA (in which they lost 0:2). With all this in mind, I'm going for a USA win @ 1.68 :ok
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Re: Can I make profit on this system?? By all means mate, give it a shot. I'll check back to see how it goes for you :ok
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Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Hi Booksie. It's a little late here, but will try to explain my opinion as clear as poss! Ok, so you got 5 picks, all with theoretical (decimal) odds of 2.10 (assuming there's no commission etc). Here's a few figures which may, or may not, help!
- Mathematically, each selection has a (1/2.1) = 47.6% chance of winning.
- From 5 picks, on average, you can expect to win 2 selections, which will return just £4.20 from a total stake of £6.00. Thus, a £1.80 loss.
- Sometimes you will get 3 winners, which will, like you said, give a 30p profit.
- A 'full house' of 5 winners will return around £51.33 (including all 5 singles and accumulator).
- The maths suggest that the chance of winning all 5 selections is just 2.4%, or 1 time in 41 attempts. [ (1/2.10)^5 = 0.024485 ]
Unless you have a system in place which suggests you have an advantage over the bookies (or the people offering the odds), or if you are extremely lucky, you will not make a good profit in the long run. I believe most fellow punters on PL will agree that the ingredients of 'Discipline' and 'Money Management' go a long, long way in sports betting. But, the most important ingredient is finding real value in your selections. To make your 'system' create profit, you will need to find a consistent strike rate of at least 60% (3/5 winners), or 80% (4/5 winners). Bear in mind that a 60% strike-rate means finding over 12% 'value' in all of your selections. If I could find value like that consistently, then I'd be a very rich man by now! My advice would be to play very safe with this strategy, and only use it for a bit of fun. Sorry if I've put a dampener on things, but just thought I'd give my honest thoughts, like you asked, and maybe given you something to ponder. You never know though, you may prove to be lucky and win a 5/5 from the start! Good Luck! :) MT
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Re: Both teams to score (YES/NO) in 3 LEVELS glory hunt Just found this thread, and am impressed with your start - well done! If you are interested, here's some figures based on the past 15 years (or there abouts) of the English leagues: Premier League (5800+ matches): Yes 47.7% (fair odds: 2.09) Championship (8400+ matches): Yes 51.1% (fair odds: 1.95) League One (8400+ matches): Yes 50.4% (fair odds: 1.98) League Two (8400+ matches): Yes 50.2% (fair odds: 1.99) All Divisions (30,000+ matches): Yes 50.0% (fair odds: 2.00) I've yet to calculate other leagues for this info. However, from past calculations, I seem to remember leagues in Scotland, Belgium and Holland produced a very high amount of goals (and in theory more 'Yes' matches!). Good Luck for the next bets anyway: :ok MT
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Re: Punters Lounge Acca Hunt Always good to see a different method come along. Good luck with this! :)
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Re: £20 [9 Month] Bank Builder
Ooo-eck! Wrong building! :lol nah, just thought I'd pop my head round the door - see what I was missing! The temptation to come back and do a GH is getting higher, but no cigar... just yet! MTBloody hell! What are you doing here?!?!?!?!? :eek :lol -
Re: £20 [9 Month] Bank Builder Hope I haven't jinxed anything by making an appearance, but 'Good Luck Fella!' - and remember, you're not gambling with 'money' - you're gambling in 'numbers' :)
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Re: Scotty's 3rd Attacking Drip!! GL Scotty! :)
Tennis W/C 9th November
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
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Re: Tennis W/C 9th November