Jump to content
Download the PL Forum App!
** ELO Ratings are now back **

madnesstiger

New Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,449

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by madnesstiger

    Madness|Madness (Repeat)

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Hi All, I've been away from the game a while, so I've decided to start again with some 'basic training' in GloryHunting! As the title subtly suggests, the stategy here is to double up, split the bank, double up and split the bank again. Simple as that. Starting with a measly bank of £10, the initial target will be £20, before splitting this into 2 banks of £10 and repeating the feat to give a final bank of £40. For this (hopefully short, but not prematurely so) 'hunt' the bets will be made purely on Football (Soccer) matches with the majority of bets being on the 1+ goals markets, each with expectant odds of between 1.05-1.10. I'll be looking at around 10-12 winners to ensure the initial goal is reached. Any failure in this period will result in the familiar phrase 'Game Over'. So, here goes nothing... ! STARTING BANK: £10.00 BET 1 Bragantino SP vs Sao Paulo Total Goals 1+ @ 1.07 :hope

    The Tiger's Short & Curlies

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: The Tiger's Short & Curlies FT's Jamaica 2:0 Guatemala :D Grenada 1:7 Honduras :D SC Toronto 0:1 Toronto Croatia :wall Parana 1:0 Salgueiro :wall Returns: £0.00 *** 3rd Attempt 1.[JAP] Omiya Ardija (2.90) vs (3.30) Urawa Reds 2.[KOR] Gangwon vs (3.25) Busan I'Park (2.10) 3.[AUS] Tuggeranong United (2.25) vs (3.75) Cooma Tigers 4.[AUS] Bayswater City (2.20) vs (3.60) Cockburn City Bets: 1,2,3,4 1,2,3,4x 1,2,3x,4 1,2x,3,4 1x,2,3,4 Total Stake: £6.25 Combined Odds: ~8.07 MT :ok

    The Tiger's Short & Curlies

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: The Tiger's Short & Curlies Bet 2 One 'Banker' 1. Jamaica to beat Guatemala @ 1.61 Three Win/Draw Bets 2. SC Toronto (2.05) vs (3.30) Toronto Croatia 3. Grenada vs (Tie Honduras -3 4.33) Honduras (-3 2.50) 4. Parana vs (3.6) Salgueiro (5.00) 4 Selections: 1,2,3,4 1,2,3,4X 1,2,3X,4 1,2x,3,4 Combined Odds: ~11.50 MT :ok

    The Tiger's Short & Curlies

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: The Tiger's Short & Curlies Okay, I have the first bet prepared ready for an overnight kick-off to the hunt... Three Selections: USA-NASL Atlanta Silverbacks vs Montreal Impact (3.50,3.30,1.90) Brazil-Serie A Atletico MG vs Sao Paulo (2.10,3.25,3.50) Canada-Soccer League St. Catherines Wolves vs York Region Shooters (3.00,3.25,2.10) The 3 Bets Any 2 teams in bold above to win and the 3rd match to result in a draw... York Region, Atletico MG, Draw £1.93 @ 14.55 York Region, Draw, Montreal £2.16 @ 12.97 Draw, Atletico, Montreal £2.16 @ 12.97 Total Staked: £6.25 Combined Odds: ~4.50 MT :ok

    The Tiger's Short & Curlies

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    The Tiger's Short & Curlies This GH is all about perms :tongue2 After digging out my copy of Paul Steele's book 'Profitable Football Betting' recently, I've decided to make a swift return to the GH scene and see if I can make a few bob using a combination of Paul's permutation strategies and a selection procedure based vaguely on a few of his rating systems (not saying which at this point). However, the staking system I will be using will be different to the flat stakes used in the book. Steele's records show that over a period of 25 bets, his longest losing streak was 4 bets. Therefore, I will go fairly safe (but still risky enough to call this a Glory Hunt) and anticipate a losing run of 8 bets, and set a staking rule as follows: Staking Strategy

    • Starting bank of £50
    • Stake 12.5% of bankroll each bet (providing me with a minimum of 8 bets), with a minimum bet of £6.25

    Again, following the record in the book, if Paul had followed the above strategy, and had a starting bank of £400 (providing a starting bet of £50), he would've ended the 25-bet sample with a bankroll of over £12,000, and not ~£3,000 as printed. The Rules Select a small list of 3-5 matches on a regular basis and form a shortened perm in order to acheive attractive returns. I will not describe each permutation just now, but will give details with each bet. All will become clear as I progress...! MT :ok

    International Friendlies > 2011

    in Other International Predictions

    Posted

    Re: International Friendlies June, 5 Bolivia vs Paraguay Pick: Paraguay Strength: 9/10 Odds: 2.20 (B365) *** Paraguay lost 4:2 to Argentina last week playing home-grown players, whereas Bolivia were held to a 1:1 draw with lowly Guatemala. Tonights match sees Paraguay welcome some European stars including Roque Santa Cruz and Lucas Barrios. Also, the match is being played at Santa Cruz (1,300ft), and not La Paz (12,000ft), therefore altitude will not come into play anywhere near as much. The rankings show the visitors as clear favorites, although my only concern would be the fact that there has not been an away win recorded between these two sides for at least the past 6 meetings. MT :ok

    bounce08's £20 to £160 in TWO DAYS (FINAL SHOT!)

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: bounce08's £20 to £160 in TWO DAYS (FINAL SHOT!)

    Bet 2) £10 on Bolivar v Real Mamore - H/T Double Chance - Draw or Real Mamore @ 2.15 (Bet365) to win £21.50 Both teams are pretty evenly matched in the form tables. The reverse fixture earlier in the season finished 1-2 to Bolivar. Both teams score a few goals however there is no value in the Over 2.5 goals so going for the draw or Real Mamore to be leading at half time at a great price. :hope
    Unlucky mate. :sad I know it's a few days old now, but just thought I'd add my thoughts on this selection. If nothing else, it may be something to bear in mind when selecting bets in countries such as Bolivia...
    • Bolivar have one of the best, if not the best home record in Bolivia, and have not lost home game all season (won 6, drawn 3 before this match)
    • Real Momore have the worst away record in the league, W0 D1 L8 before this match, and a goal record away from home of GF3 GA19 (Diff -16)
    • Bolivar are from La Paz, which is almost 12,000ft above sea level. This kind of altitude may play some part, especially in this fixture, as Real Mamore are from Trinidad and are more accustomed to just a few hundred feet above sea level.

    So, in my opinion, there was only going to be one winner in this one. Don't give up matey - better luck next time. MT :ok

    Madness All Over The World

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Madness All Over The World Thanks for the input guys, was thinking of similar myself after seeing Gulbis go down in the tennis today. Rather than risk the rest on a ~1.20 pick, I'm going to abandon this GH with immediate effect and go to have a play with some figures! MT :ok

    Madness All Over The World

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Madness All Over The World Result 001/01 [FT] Blackburn Rovers 0:1 Manchester City New Bank £50.90 *** Bet No. 002/01 Event Ernests Gulbis vs Illya Marchenko (Tennis, ATP Belgrade) Selection Ernests Gulbis to Win Match Back Odds 1.12 Stake £7.42 None MT :hope

    Madness All Over The World

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Madness All Over The World

    Where on earth did you find that bet?!
    I didn't.. I made it! Double Chance: Man City/Draw @ 1.22 Correct Score: Blackburn, 1:0 @ 12.00 Combined Odds = 1.107 Spreadsheet I made then tells me how much to stake on each selection, providing me with equal returns should either bet win.

    Madness All Over The World

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    This one will be a restart of my last GH which ended after just 10 bets. However, I have faith in the strategy, and will give it another shot. With this in mind, the rules will remain pretty much the same. However, I will keep In-Play bets to a minimum, as I think these have potential to ruin any GH in no time. In case you missed them first time around, here's the strategy... INTRODUCTION I’ve been spending the last week or so catching up on the PL forums after being away for a little while. It’s good to see so many familiar names still active and also to see so many new members. As my regular haunt over the years has been the Glory Hunters den, I’ve taken an interest in the various systems being utilitised and tweaked here and there, in particularly the ‘Most Consecutive Bets’ type of threads - you know, the ones where ScottyXS seems to have set the standard so well that I see there is now a league table set up to show how poorly, or unlucky as some may argue, everyone else seems to perform in comparison. I like this idea, and I appreciate Rebel’s time for producing such thread. All these previous Hunts have (maybe unnoticed by many) provided us with lots of information. Granted, many a thread are simply lists of simple ‘1+ Total Goals’ bets and suchlike with the hope of getting lucky and achieving a respectable position in the previously-mentioned league table, but others take it a step further and implement ‘banking’ strategies, calculated selection systems varying from the plain and simple to the exquisitely complex, and so on. These threads have grown on me, and have aided me into deciding on this as my next Glory Hunt adventure. MADNESS ALL OVER THE WORLD

    100% Madness and MadnessDaily systems of yesteryear but with a ‘wiser’ approach. Also worth noting, this system...

    • Is based on a Martingale Staking strategy, and must only be carried out with money you can afford to lose. (Visit gambleaware.co.uk for more information)
    • Does not technically satisfy all criteria for inclusion in the ‘Glory Hunters Consecutive Bets League’ – main reason being that I do expect to, or am required to, win every single bet consecutively for the system to work. However, large parts of the system may consist of consecutive winners.
    • Has been reasonably successful in the past when used with riskier staking strategies. However this does not mean it is forced to be any kind of success this time around.
    • Is largely based on my own previous ideas, although concepts from other GH’s and readings have been implemented in an aim to improve the strategy.

    THE SYSTEM An initial bankroll of £50.00 will be used throughout the GH, and will be known as the bank. Each bet will have 1 or 2 chances of winning. Each bet will be made up of either

    • 1 single selection using entire bank @ equivalent back odds of 1.02-1.03 in order to win 2%-3% of current bank at the time of the bet.
    • 1 single selection using part of the bank @ equivalent back odds of 1.06-1.11 in order to win 1.75% of current bank at the time of the bet, with a 2nd chance option which will consist of a selection using the remainder of the bank @ equivalent back odds of 1.21-1.44, depending on the odds used for the 1st selection.
    • Each bet will be made with the aim of winning 1.75% of the current bankroll
    • When a single-selection bet wins at odds of 1.02, the following bet will have a target of winning just 1.50% of the current bankroll in order to satisfy an average of 1.75% over the 2 consecutive bets.
    • When a single-selection bet wins at odds of 1.03, the following bet will have a target of winning just 0.50% of the current bankroll in order to satisfy an average of 1.75% over the 2 consecutive bets.

    With the above rules in mind, the following table should describe better what my selection choices are limited to; Regular Single-Selection Bet (To Win 2.00%-3.00% of Bank)

    Chance 1 Chance 2 Chance of Failure
    1.02 N/A 2.0% (1-(1/1.02))
    1.03 N/A 2.9%
    Regular 2-Chance Bet (To Win 1.75% of Bank)
    Chance 1 Chance 2 Chance of Failure
    1.06 1.44 1.73%
    1.07 1.36 1.73%
    1.08 1.31 1.75%
    1.09 1.27 1.76%
    1.10 1.24 1.76%
    1.11 1.21 1.72%
    2-Chance Bet Following A 1.02 Single-Selection Winner (To Win 1.50% of Bank)
    Chance 1 Chance 2 Chance of Failure
    1.06 1.36 1.50%
    1.07 1.30 1.51%
    1.08 1.25 1.48%
    1.09 1.22 1.49%
    1.10 1.20 1.52%
    1.11 1.18 1.51%
    2-Chance Bet Following A 1.03 Single-Selection Winner (To Win 0.50% of Bank)
    Chance 1 Chance 2 Chance of Failure
    1.06 1.10 0.51%
    1.07 1.09 0.54%
    1.08 1.08 0.55%
    1.09 1.07 0.54%
    1.10 1.06 0.51%
    1.11 1.06 0.56%
    As shown, the vast majority of bets will have a theoretical chance of failure of 2% or less. In reality though, anything can happen! Using the above strategy, each winning bet should win, on average, 1.75% of the bank. However, as successful bets are achieved, it would not be surprising to find the average win to be higher than the 1.75% target, especially when 2nd chance selections are made due to the fact that the entire remaining bank is used as the stake, and not a fixed amount, resulting in slightly higher returns. Other points to note;
    • There is no magic formula for picking selections. Decisions will be made for each selection using information found mainly on the internet such as recent form, league tables, rankings, team/player news, etc.
    • Selections may be placed on any sport or event, although personal favourites football (soccer) and tennis will feature more often than not.
    • Selections may be made either Pre-Match or In-Play using Bet365 odds. Selections will be posted as soon as possible in the thread, especially when selecting In-Play options, with timings and current status of event noted.
    As for betting strategy, that’s about all there is to it. BANKING This GH will implement banking of winnings should I get far enough. The banking strategy has been designed with 2 main objectives...
    1. To bank an amount equal to that of the initial bankroll, so that the GH has become effectively ‘free to play’, in a reasonably short timeframe.
    2. To maximise potential profits after the 1st objective has been met, whilst still making occasional withdrawals in anticipation the dreaded failing bet.

    This may take some explaining, but I’ll try my best to explain the banking strategy.

    • After 25 successful bets, the initial bankroll of £50.00 will have reached £77.15 (based on an average win of 1.75% of the bank – this figure may well be slightly higher).
    • If bets 1-25 each had a target win of just 1.00% of the bank, the estimated bank after 25 successful bets would be £64.12.
    • The 1st banking withdrawal will be the current bank after 25 successful bets minus £64.12 – this would be at least £13.03 (£77.15-£64.12).
    • Bet 26 will follow, with a bank of £64.12, and a target win per bet of 1.75%.
    • The same rules will then apply as above after 50 successful bets, and a banking withdrawal of at least £16.71 will be made.
    • Bet 51 will follow, with a bank of £82.23, and a target win per bet of 1.75%.
    • The same rules will then apply as above after 75 successful bets, and a banking withdrawal of at least £21.43 will be made.
    • The total banked after 75 successful bets would now exceed the initial bankroll of £50.00
    • Bet 76 will follow, with a bank of £105.45, and a target win per bet of 1.75%.
    • After 100 successful bets the £105.45 will have reached £162.71.
    • If bets 76-100 each had a target win of just 1.50% of the bank, the estimated bank after 100 successful bets would be £153.00.
    • The 4th banking withdrawal will be the current bank after 100 successful bets minus £153.00 – this would be at least £9.71.
    • Each set of 25 successful bets would then continue in this fashion.

    The following table shows the estimated banks after successful bets, upto and including the current record of 350 bets set by ScottyXS.

    # Starting Bank Cumm. Bets 1.75% Target If Target Win Was... Bank Would Be... £ Banked Cumm. Banked
    1 £50.00 25 £77.15 1.00% £64.12 £13.03 £13.03
    2 £64.12 50 £98.94 1.00% £82.23 £16.71 £29.74
    3 £82.23 75 £126.88 1.00% £105.45 £21.43 £51.17
    4 £105.45 100 £162.71 1.50% £153.00 £9.71 £60.88
    5 £153.00 125 £236.08 1.50% £221.99 £14.09 £74.97
    6 £221.99 150 £342.53 1.50% £322.10 £20.43 £95.40
    7 £322.10 175 £496.99 1.50% £467.35 £29.64 £125.04
    8 £467.35 200 £721.11 1.50% £678.10 £43.01 £168.05
    9 £678.10 225 £1046.30 1.50% £983.89 £62.41 £230.46
    10 £983.89 250 £1518.12 1.50% £1427.57 £90.55 £321.01
    11 £1427.57 275 £2202.71 1.50% £2071.33 £131.38 £452.39
    12 £2071.33 300 £3196.02 1.50% £3005.39 £190.63 £643.02
    13 £3005.39 325 £4637.26 1.50% £4360.66 £276.60 £919.62
    14 £4360.66 350 £6728.41 1.50% £6327.08 £401.33 £1320.95
    Think you can complete 500 successful bets, and miss the theoretical 10 losing bets (2% chance of failure)? If you can, you would be walking home with approximately £59.000 + whatever you’ve banked along the way! Anyhow, enough of dreamland. I would be happy with 75 winners and a free GH. Out of interest. the latest Consecutive Bets League Table (at time of writing this) shows that the average amount of bets is 131, with a median value of 111 winners. Hoping for better luck this time :hope MT :ok

    This GH is based on my original

    Ooh Mad... Just A Little Bit

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Ooh Mad... Just A Little Bit 2nd chance time again folks... Bet No. 011/02 Event Sousa vs Elias (Tennis, ATP Estoril) Selection Elias to win 24th game, In-Play, 0:0 Back Odds 1.28 Stake £51.41 Could be all over in munites.. here we go! MT :hope

×
×
  • Create New...