madnesstiger
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Posts posted by madnesstiger
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Re: MadnessTrebles Yep... Liverpool... mmm... the girlfriend's team... fingers crossed on this one then! Just checked other scores... hope you didn't combine alot of the other teams I listed, I think only Stranraer did the business, and East Fife with their minute odds. Just watched the Spurs v Manchester Reds match online - being a Spurs fan, I thought it was going to be my lucky day, only for the latest equaliser known to man! Bloody hate 'em :@!!
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Re: MadnessTrebles Making me feel under pressure now.. saying you're going with me on my first picks! Cheers fella.. :hope
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Re: Fleet's Football Trebles 2007-08 Cheers Kev, I have managed to get my version up on the forum just in time for this weekends matches. Here's the link: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=61507 Will not mention it again on this thread at all.. I know how frustrating it can be with confusing one system with another. btw, Any picks on this one for this weekend??
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Re: MadnessTrebles Other high ratings for this weekends, if interested: Odds in brackets (Bet365) Leyton Orient: 20 (2.30) Rochdale: 20 (2.15) East Fife: 24 (Real low odds, 1.20)) Stranraer: 21 (1.44) Stenhousmuir: 21 (2.25) Fairly poor week in terms of ratings, expected a few more higher ratings amongst these. Also, no eligible matches in Turkey as they are playing cup games over there this weekend. Turkey's results have gone down well with this system and have produced quite a reliable graph.
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Re: MadnessTrebles Let's get the ball rolling then... The three matches chosen for this weekends treble are as follows: EPL: LIVERPOOL vs Sunderland [17:15] Match Rating: 21 Home Odds: 1.30 (Bet365) Sunderland without an away win all season in Premier League, and only 2 away draws. Unlikely to improve at Anfield. ENG LGE 1: BRISTOL ROVERS vs Port Vale [15:00] Match Rating: 19 Home Odds: 1.72 (Bet365) Bristol unbeaten of late, against a Port Vale squad with leaky defence away from home. Out of the 3, I think this one is most risky. SCO DIV 2: AIRDRIE vs Raith Rovers [15:00] Match Rating: 20 Home Odds: 2.25 (Bet365) Airdrie have best home record in the division, and in good recent form. Raith have good away form but have a few injuries and are missing a key midfielder through suspension. Staking Level: 1 Initial Bankroll: £100.00 Stake: £10.00 New Bankroll: £90.00 Potential Returns: £50.31 Sorry these are a little late as I've been wanting to get everything in place ready for this weekends fixture list. One more note... I may find some weeks that a team has a high ratings, but also quite high odds, in which case I could afford to bet on the win OR draw and still be able to have a 3-fold with combined odds of around 4.9. :hope:hope:hope
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This system is a tweaked version of "Fleet's Trebles" as found elsewhere on the forum. Reading his threads inspired me to construct my own version with new ratings and a variation on the staking strategy. Overview I give each fixture (from the leagues covered) a rating, based on the home teams recent performance. The teams which achieve the best ratings along with suitable odds will be placed into a 3-Fold accumulator with Bet365. The bets will be placed when there is a busy fixture period, this will usually mean every weekend and also some midweek bets, as I feel necessary. Leagues/Divisions Covered
- English Premier League
- English Championship
- English League One
- English League Two
- Scottish Premier League
- Scottish Division One
- Scottish Division Two
- Scottish Division Three
- Turkish Superlig
- Home team goals conceded in recent games
- Away team goals conceded in recent games
- Both teams' number of wins draws and losses in recent games
- Winning margins in recent games
Recent games = last 6, except in the Scottish divisions where better results were obtained using the last 5 games. Basically, the higher rating a game has, the more chance (theoretically) the home team has of winning the match. The highest rating noted from collecting past data was 49. Previous Results Analysis Results data has been collected for each division covered in the system, and a match rating given where possible since the 2001/02 season. Altogether, almost 13,500 matches have been rated and analysed. Each divisions results produce a graph showing how well the ratings system performs and is given a trendline showing the line of best fit. The graph is then set to display its R-squared equation - this shows how 'reliable' the system is, where a figure of 1 is 100% consistent with the line of best fit. From this I have produced a comparison chart showing which divisions provide the most reliable system, which have better home-win strike rates within specific groups of ratings, and also how successful the system is at picking 'home team not-to-lose' selections. For example: The English Premier League gives us the most reliable data, with a r-squared rating of 96.2% and the 2nd highest 'slope' rating of 1.07 (this rating shows how well a highly-rated match picks home winners against how well a low-rated match picks an unsuccessful home team) It also shows that in the Scottish Division 3, 93% of matches rated between 21-30 (83 matches) resulted in a home win or a draw. Selections I find ratings for each upcoming match and will generally select the 3 teams with the highest rating to be included in the 3-fold bet. Where the ratings are close to call, I will use the comparison chart to find which disivison has provided more reliable/successful data for the rating in quesiton, as well as reading match previews for any injury doubts to key players or suspensions etc. to help decide. The bookies odds also can come into play here. If the odds for a match are too low (i.e. less than 1.50 in decimal odds) I will question the inclusion of the team in question. Odds of around 1.70-2.00 would be ideal and are what I had in mind whilst working out the staking strategy. I will be expecting most selected matches to be rated at least 20. Depending on the league in question, matches rated 21-30 have a strike rate of between 58% and 72%. Matches rated over 30 have strike rates of between 60% and 100%, again depending on the league in question. Staking Plan I liked FF's idea of using a 'progression' system made up of 10 levels, where if 10 successful trebles were selected in succession, you would be loaded! However, it didn't take long for me to realise that this pretty much required selecting 30 successful home wins in a row to complete all 10 levels. With this in mind, I am going to suggest the following staking strategy initially, based on the English FA Cup for a bit of fun!... Level 1 (1st Qualifying Round) £10 stake on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return £49 Bank the £10 stake, and proceed to level 2 with the £39 profit. Level 2 (2nd Qualifying Round) 2 attempts at another treble! £19.50 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £96.00 If win, we bank £20 and proceed to level 3 with approx £76. Level 3 (1st Round Proper) 2 attempts at another treble! £38.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £186.00 If win, we bank £30 and proceed to level 4 with approx £156. Level 4 (2nd Round) 2 attempts at another treble! £78.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £382.00 If win, we bank £40 and proceed to level 5 with approx £342. Level 5 (3rd Round) 2 attempts at another treble! £171.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £838.00 If win, we bank £50 and proceed to level 6 with approx £788. Level 6 (4th Round) 2 attempts at another treble! £394.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £1930.00 If win, we bank £60 and proceed to level 7 with approx £1870. Level 7 (5th Round) 2 attempts at another treble! £935.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £4580.00 If win, we bank £70 and proceed to level 8 with approx £4510. Level 8 (6th Round) 2 attempts at another treble! £2255.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £11050. If win, we bank £80 and proceed to level 9 with approx £10,970. Level 9 (Quarter-Final) 2 attempts at another treble! £5485.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £26,876 If win, we bank £90 and proceed to level 10 with approx £26,786. Level 10 (Semi-Final) 2 attempts at another treble! £13393.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £65,625 If win, we bank £100 and proceed to level 11 with approx £65525. Level 11 (The Final) 2 attempts at another treble! £32760.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £160,524 If win, we either bank the lot.. or bank £110 and go on to play in the Super Cup! Level 12 (Super Cup Final) 2 attempts at another treble! £80200.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £392,980 If win, we retire! Depending how many '2nd attempts' you had to use, you could walk away with anything upto around £500,000!!! This includes unused stakes and the small amounts banked on the way. You can obviously walk away at whichever level you want, but if you can conquer the lot, I'd recommend you congratulate yourself, have a pint, buy a Reliant Robin, and walk away from gambling for a little while! I'm going straight in with a £100 starting bankroll, real money.. see where we end up! I may work on alternative staking strategies in the future, but for now, will stick to the above. Suggestions, comments.. your shout folks! :D
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Re: £10 for an attic conversion in 5 years time! Just happened to browse this thread.. excellent stuff! It made me think though, of a system I have going which I started at the beginning of the year. It is the second time I've tried it, and seems to work quite well... although very slightly riskier than your strategy. The first time I tried it, I started with £40, and ended up turning that into £600 to pay for my summer holiday to Turkey! This time round, I started with £80 on 28th December 2007. At the present time, I have £282. Rather than aim for 15% profit per month, I have started by aiming for 5% per day. which is around 300%/month! I made a 'calculator' using Excel to work out the stake for each bet. The method I use is based on a Martingale strategy (I know I shouldn't use it, but let me finish!), where if I lose a bet, my next bet makes up for the loss. My current set-up gives me 3 chances of acheiving a winning bet.. otherwise I'm down and out.. bust! Using the martingale theory, to acheive 5% profit of my daily initial bankroll, I have 3 chances at odds of 1.57. Alternatively, I could play for 2 wins of 2.5%, in which case I would have 3 chances at odds of 1.41. I hope you get the idea! Anyhow... in your case, as an example (and it is a fun system afterall!), to achieve 15% per month profit on your initial bankroll, you would be talking mega-low odds!! If used daily, you would be aiming for about a 0.5% gain per day.. or two wins of 0.25% per day. To acheive a profit of 0.5%, you would have 1 chance at odds of 1.01 (obviosly, for a 1% proit increase)... Or 2 chances at odds of 1.10 (example bet - at least 1 goal in a football match) Or 3 chances at odds of 1.21 (example bet - Manchester United to beat Derby County at Old trafford in the Premier League) Obviously, to gain 0.25%, the odds would be even lower (haven't even got them on my chart!). In my case, I aim to gain 5% for the first few months, then have a few months aiming for 4%, then a few months at 3%, and so on... eventually, when you have approx £40,000, a 0.25% gain per day would be £100 - a nice daily 'wage' for betting on something like Pele to come out of retirement and sign for Mansfield Town! Starting with £100, you could be at this point in about 160 days! :lol Enough of the rambling.. good luck fella!
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Re: Fleet's Football Trebles 2007-08 Hi All, Didn't realise I was a member of Punter'sLounge! However, it obviously looks like I did open an account at some point afterall! After somebody mentioned the BookiesRBust system to me via an email, I ended up spending around 5hours reading all 68 pages of FF's 'trebles' threads... I never did see the original B'R'B system!! I read with interest through the wins and losses, and as I got to the end, I had no choice but to open up Excel, dig out a load of past results data, and crack on with re-creating something along similar lines to Fleet's awesome system. Anyway... I have now completed 9 spreadsheets covering 9 different divisions and totalling 55Mb of Excel geekery! I have made a few adjustments to the ratings system, and also to the staking strategy. Because of the tweaks in both the ratings and staking, (although the general idea of trebles etc is very similar) I will create my own thread showing full details and results in a similar manner to what FF has done so impressively over the past few years. I felt it was only right of me to post this reply on this thread first, before I get accusations of posting a purely identical system to this one. Thanks FF for a fantastic read, and wish you all the luck in your quest for the ££££!! I will, of course, check back here often to see how things are going and may even start placing your selections myself if my version goes tits up! I will provide the link for my take on this system as soon as I have it posted on the forum, and would be grateful for anyone's thoughts and contributions to the thread. One again, I must stress, I am not trying to compete as such or suggest any system is better than the other, but because of the degree of alterations, I think it should have it's own thread. May the wins be with us!!!! MadnessTiger :ok
MadnessTrebles
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: MadnessTrebles Thanks guys. Have changed the nasty name for you.. sorry! Back to business... todays results: Level 1 Treble: Airdrie 3:0 Raith Rovers :D Bristol Rovers 3:2 Port Vale :D Liverpool 3:0 Sunderland :D Current Financial Situation: Initial Bankroll: £100.00 Stake This Bet: £10.00 Returns This Bet: £49.97 New Bankroll: £139.97 Overall Profit/Loss: +40.0% Next Bet: Attempt 1 at Level 2 Stake: £19.99 If anyone joined me with todays treble, well done, and may it be the first of many. Todays win has give me some idea as to what I have ahead of me to make this system work. Todays Notes:
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