madnesstiger
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Posts posted by madnesstiger
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Re: 2 banks and a mirror ...especially if you continue to win and get stung by BF's new 20% taxing system!! :)
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Re: Premium Bets Glory Hunt So long as you stick to the rules you stated above, I reckon you stand every chance of making this a success! Reading the opening post, I imagine you are in a similar boat to me, in the way that you have realised that the all-in bets are much much harder than they sound, and that the bookies out there must be laughing in our faces when they see somebody trying a new all-in GH! I'm still in the 'development' stages of my new GH, but I will be following this one just as I have with your previous attempts. Good luck squire. :ok
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Re: 2 banks and a mirror
Maybe it is... at BACKING teams to win. However, if you reverse it's initial purpose, and LAY all of it's selections, it would be quite good! :lolMy rating system is really piss...! :rollin -
Re: 2 banks and a mirror Hi mate. Shout at me if I'm wrong, but am I correct in concluding that you're just using this GH to 'test' a ratings system? If the answer is 'no', then feel free to call me 'thick' and to go back and read the thread again! If the answer is 'yes', then why do you not back-test the ratings system against oodles of historic data? Saves you risking placing an incorrect bet, and shouldn't take quite as long to find any conclusions.
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Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! Good news is that... 1. You 'banked' the initial £20, so all you do now is effectively go back to square 1, and start again! 2. Your 'system' still didn't lose, the 'favourite' won 1:0! *** Bad news is... 1. You went against your systems' rules, and the dreaded loser came a little earlier than expected! :( Unlucky mate. Don't give up though - it was only profit which you lost, NOT your own money!
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Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! You are correct in that a heavy favourited home side will cause the combined odds to drop massively. It will have to be something to look further into. The example I gave earlier was based on a ratings model, with specific ratings producing x% of 'over 1.5' matches. I am still in the process of compiling the spreadsheets, but can maybe let you take a look when I have completed the task. The difference of upto just 8% between home and away favourites, I think, is like you say, lower than the difference in available odds on such matches. [e.g. combined odds for heavy home fav. of 1.06 (94.3% chance) compared to those for a heavy away fav. of 1.17 (85.5% chance) shows that the difference here is almost 9%, which is more than the difference as shown from the ratings model]. Therefore, maybe it is better to go for AWAY favourites, as you have been doing, afterall! :)
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Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! The research I'm currently carrying out on various football leagues shows, amongst other things, that you might be better off selecting matches where the home side is the 'favourite'. According to EPL data from the past 14 seasons, there is ~8% more chance of there being 2+ goals in a match where the home side is favourite as opposed to the away side. This might be quite logical, but is always good to throw a few hard facts into the theory! MT :ok
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Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! Here's to the next 5 winners!! :)
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Re: Scotty's 2nd Attacking Drip!! (Currently £533.04 in Profit!!) BF are losing the plot!!!! Unlike 'normal' bookies, BF make profits from every winner , at 2-5% commission. I dont understand at all why they're introducing the new 20% tax rule. It's insane! You're supposedly betting against other punters, not Betfair! So, as soon as you find away to get one-up on the other punters, BF stick their noses in and threaten to tax you tremendously silly amounts should you continue to be successful (to the sum of £16+ a week!!) Before long, it will be more profitable to return to the standard bookies out there as their prices will work out better than those of BF.
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Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! In my opinion, the 'safer' option here would be to bank the initial £20, and double-up again with the remaining £24.37. If this system is going to work, it doesn't matter if you're only starting with £24 - double up to ~£50, and then maybe review the staking strategy, as sooner-or-later you are going to come across a loser! Keep focused mate, and I can see this one going a long way yet :)
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Re: Dutching 1-0 & 2+ (Part 2) Good point Stew! :)
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Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+ Quick calculations say you should have around £37.59 should the 4th bet provide a winner, meaning a 5th bet will be required to 'double-up'... or a single 1+ Goals bet! Keep it up mate... doing well :)
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Re: Dutching 1-0 & 2+ (Part 2) Which team do you have to win 1:0? lol. Good luck with your thread mate.
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Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+ 2 in a week for Nigel Reo-Coker, and Aston Villa help seal the 3rd winner! 1:3 (FT) :)
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Re: Dutching 1-0 and 2+ And Gallas grabs an equaliser after 88 minutes to seal a 1:1 scoreline, and your 2nd winner! :)
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Re: Dutching 1-0 and 2+
Yep, I agree totally that we are laying double the amount of scorelines. I think all I was trying to express was that, with a little bit of luck, it should be a lot easier to double the bank from the initial bankroll. How you play it after 'doubling up' is a different story, as 8% (percentage of 0:0's) is nearly half as many as 14% (chance of 0:0 or 'underdog' winning 1:0). As a 'long-term' GH, I may be tempted to re-vamp the old '8 Stages of Madness' thread and use a strategy as in this GH, in order to 'play' it. It will then, hopefully determine the long-term success of dutching 0:0/'Fav' 1:0. Anyway, enough of my rambling... let's see the next selection! MT :okI trust your calculations MT :) Maybe i expressed myself i little unclear. When i said it was harder, i didn't mean harder to reach the target, but harder to achieve a single win, as we are basically laying 2 results instead of 1. Time will tell, next bet coming in a moment...! :loon -
Re: Dutching 1-0 and 2+
Is it harder though? To double the bank with '1+ goals' takes about 10 winners in a row. With this method, it can take only 4. Let's do some maths..!Just remember that this is harder than "just" laying the 0-0 (= 1+ goals), in which doubling the bank is difficult enough.- 72.1% of matches in the EPL over the last 6 seasons (2002-2008) contained >1.5 goals, meaning 27.9% contained less.
- 8.1% of matches ended 0:0. Leaving us with 19.8%.
- Let's say the 'favourite' scores the winning solitary goal in 70% of these remaining 19.8% of matches. (No hard facts to back this one up, sorry!). This results in 13.9% of the 27.9% still giving you a winning bet.
- From all the above, we can estimate that (13.9% + 72.1% =) 86% all EPL matches would give you a winner. Rounded to the nearest ten, that's 9 winners in every 10 bets.
- In reality, 9/10 is, on average, what us mugs on here acheive in our '1+ goals' GH's!
- Therefore... this strategy should be 60% easier to double the bank, than a simple '1+ goals' strategy, in that you need only 4 successive winners, rather than 10!
There.. have I sold it to you yet?!! Or have I just confused the living daylights out of everyone?! :lol:lol
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Re: Dutching 1-0 and 2+ The 'combined' odds of 1.21 in the last match is definately food for thought - just 4 of these and you've more than doubled your bank! Will be interesting to see how much the odds change in future picks. Nearly tempted to try this myself away from the forum. Keep it up HLV :ok
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Re: Will figure out good thread name later... Interesting idea. Good luck mate! :)
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Re: 2 Banks = 2x as much fun!! Sounds like very reasonable idea, Good luck fella! :)
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Re: Ladder challenge
Thought it looked familiar! :lol It just so happens that I was thinking of bringing this one back to life in the near future (MadnessTrebles in the S&S forum), using my new ratings system (which I'm working on) to select the matches. I may end up with 2 similar threads running simultaniously - 1 'slow and steady' method, and 1 'all-out attack' method. More on these when I get round to it! However, for now, I will be watching this one progress with interest. MT :okThis idea has been tested before by others, FleetFanatic and MadnessTiger are those i know of. -
Re: MadnessTrebles
Thought something was strange when I flicked over to this forum, and saw 'MadnessTrebles' was way up the pecking order! Cheers HLV! :) I will need to re-read some of these old threads of mine soon, to gain some past thoughts which may have been forgotten as the passing months and endless 'GloryHunts' have gone by. I realise I've been away from the forums for a little while now (about a week!), but I am working on further ratings models as I speak. As with older models, I am backtesting my findings against various leagues' past results to see if it's worth preaching to you lot! :lol Nothings been 'tested' as yet, but I am looking at various methods of Power Ratings, ELO Ratings, AQB Ratings and some more 'simpler' ratings systems with a view to maybe combining a few in an attempt to find a more successful prediction model. MT :okThought i would bump this old thread. :) What happened MT? -
Re: £25 -> £100 in 9 days and 29 bets Good luck mate... are they all to be 'all-in' 1.05 (ish) selections, or is there to be scope for 'recovery bets'? Whichever you chose, I'm sure you'll crack it in good time! Just be careful with those horse-racing bets which have let you down so much in the past! MT :ok
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2 banks and a mirror
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Re: 2 banks and a mirror Could you not place your LAY bets at the same odds as the BACK bets, and wait for them to get matched on BF? Or maybe it will be better to do it the other way round... LAY at the odds offered, and then place the BACK bets at the same odds and wait for them to be matched. It still doesn't remove the commission factor, but was just a thought.