[Pricing your own race]

14.35 Ffos Las

Looks Like power 8.5  8/1  SP 11/1
Steel Native 7.6  11/1  SP 33/1
Le Tuer 6.5  10/1  SP 3/2

Result;

1st Steel Native 33/1
2nd La Tuer
3rd Looks Like Power 11/1

Went EW on Looks Like Power as Steel Natives last 2 runs in similar races we’re Pulled Up.

Another point towards the right direction for the process though!
 

[Pricing your own race]

5 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

I was sceptical with his age and that, but as Richard said he’s definitely overpriced. Distance no problem, going no problem , course no problem ,  he’s not out of his league regarding class, on a very low mark now, but how much is left at that age? He’s not been running too bad of late in class 2 races but this looks a strong class 3 race. He’s not as capable as Takingrisks still is, but the ratings are the ratings, so I’ve had 2.50 ew on him, purely because of the price. 

Agree with both you and Richard on this. Ultimately as you say, ratings are the ratings. If the bookies are offering a high return for a low stake, then it’s a no brainier. There’s certainly far worse things to judge a horse on than it’s age!

 

[Pricing your own race]

Wincanton 2:10

Regal Flow 7.9  10/1  SP 40/1  Value
Shantou Flyer 7.2  10/1  SP 5/1 No Value
Season Spirit 6.3   12/1  SP 6/1 No Value
Eden Du Houx 6.2 12/1  SP 5/1 No Value

While Regal Flow has been running decent races of late, not sure at 14 years old I’m willing to take the chance. Saying that, his last 3 runs been close to today’s distance and all in a higher class. Going is heavy which he’s also won off, so who knows!

[Pricing your own race]

Overworkedunder paid wins at 7/2

My selection looked outpaced and finished 10th.

As suggested by Richard, better option was Quick Pick who stayed on for 4th.

2nd place was a 40/1 who hadn’t ran for over 500 days. Never understand how anyone can foresee a run like that after that much time off.

Will have a look at the 15:40.

[Pricing your own race]

1.30 Warwick

Quick Pick 7.7 , 8/1 , 11/2   No value
Overworkedunderpaid 6, 10/1, 4/1  No value
Flight to Nowhere 5.75, 10/1, 16/1   Value
The TooJumla 5.25, 12/1, 8/1   No Value

Big field with all entires from a bit all over the place. Top 2 in the betting are stand outs, but don’t offer great value. If betting on those, Quickpick looks the better option with 5lb jockey claimer.

With Sky Bet offering 5 places, I’ve gone £5 E/W with Flight to Nowhere at 16’s. 3rd highest rating, with good recent form having won in class and placed on the course. Only concern is the distance, but has only raced over 2m + once and was Pulled Up, so worth another chance at 16’s.

[Pricing your own race]

58 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I'm using currently.....last time out form figure .....form rating .....distance ....going ....hcap ......I dropped the course as I can check that myself after .....likewise class I check after 

How are you fairing with these category’s Richard?

What have you gone for in terms of % splits?

For your form rating section, how do you try and score this?

[Pricing your own race]

34 minutes ago, Alley Cat Glover said:

 

How do you allow for a horse on the upgrade with these breakdowns, taking Miranda as an example. She had not run in that class of race before, had not run at that track before, but was joint highest on ratings, and getting 4lbs as part of the conditions, her last race at Mussleborough, she finished 4th but if you watched it, in another 100yrds or with a better ride/path she would have won that race and instead of being on 143 she would have probably been rated 150 as I expect her to be now. Not sure how the handicapper will view it beating the right horse in receipt of 4lb might get away with a smaller rise, if only Harry had looked harder at work!

I’d probably echo Villa Chris’s comments with this. The process is based on objective stats from passed runs. Any improvers , especially younger horses, aren’t necessarily going to have stats in the form book to rely on.

If you look at my ratings, which was based purely on the form book, I had Miranda 4th best of a 6 horse race.

If I’d of gone that extra yard to of watched her previous race, and made the logical adjustment to rating like you did then my thought process probably may have been different. 

[Pricing your own race]

23 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

A horse running in a lesser race than it’s won in past off a lower mark than its prime will score pretty high in my ratings. Obviously you have to take into account the horse might be getting older so is losing some ability, but just looking at its previous form could indicate it’s coming to the boil again, all be it off a lower mark than in its prime . I did a race in Ireland in the week and ended up with Balko Des Flos top rated. It’s the race which Allaho won and I had him down the ratings quite low. Ended up adjusting Balko Des Flos using some judgement and he ended up 4th best rated in a 6 horse race. This is a horse that won a RyanAir at Cheltenham 3 year ago and had scored some high RPRs, but just couldn’t leave him top rated because he’d done very little since that festival win. 
 

Regarding field size, not sure it would be worth using it as one of your sections but I think you can use judgement regarding it. Rockys Treasure although scored high in ratings had a lot going against him yesterday and it showed. 

I think this surmises where I’m slightly amiss in that I’m probably expecting the sheet to pick the winner for me. Rather using it a steer to make my own judgement based on other underling factors.

Do you add / remove points based on the further factors of judgement? For example with Balko Des Flo. Say he’d scored a 10, did you just think I’ll knock 2 points off based on recent form?

I remember that Ryanair chase well. I’d put £100 on the nose of Un De Sceaux (who wasn’t even a good price) after getting getting confident because Shattered Love had won me a decent returnin the JLT. Most gut wrenching feeling watching him go backwards with about 3 to take. Group of Irish lads we were chatting too had lumped big on Balko, and from memory he wasn’t far off double figure odds!

[Pricing your own race]

36 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

What are the two decimal point scores ? For example you had Taking Risks 8.2, 9.7. 
 

Not sure what the others are doing regarding their % for sections, but I’d say distance and going is more important than lto. My reasoning you may have a horse that won lto and won well, on G/S.  But today it’s running on Soft, which he hasn’t got much form on. Same with distance. He won well lto over 2m but is going up to 2.3 today . I’d say too much emphasis is being put on lto but that’s just how I see it. Your class section is pretty much identical to how I’m doing mine. Looking at your results you aren’t that far away . Taking risks was your 4th best rated, and at 40/1 could have quite easily been your value bet. I had Rockys Treasure up there, too, but was concerned about ground and big field. 

The first figure is the score, derived from the 5 categories with their % split.

The second figure is the horse %. I use the horses score  (first figure) and divide this by the total score of all the horses. This % is then used to see what their odds are from Brigadiers sheet so a comparison can be made if we’re getting value against the bookmakers.

I probably sway toward your logic on the LTO, but thought I’d stick with Richards original splits to see how I faired. Likewise, I think Distance and Going are probably more significant than LTO. My biggest doubt with it, is that if you have horse who wins 18 months ago at 150, but has had stinking form since (might of been running wrong distance, ground etc), it does t change the fact that it’s a 150 rated winner. So as long as it’s still running it will always have the potential to repeat that run. I’m always on the look out for horses competing in lower grades or handicaps that are running off a much lower mark than their biggest career win as there’s always that chance!

I think I need to do what you have summarised there with Rockys Treasure. Objectively yes, the scoring is saying he’s there abouts. But a bit more reading and subjective judgment and I probably would of come to the same conclusion that the ground and previous big field performance would have had a negative impact on these figures.

[Pricing your own race]

Many thanks for the warm welcome fellas.

My method pretty much replicates the original concept described by Richard in earlier posts. My scoring is determined as follows;

Last Time Out (40%)
1st /2nd - 10pts
3rd/4th - 8 pts
5th/6th - 6 pts
7th/8th - 4 pts
9th + - 2 pts

Class [If not a handicap race] (15%)
Won above race class - 10pts
Won in race class - 8pts
Placed this class - 6pts
Won 1 class below - 4pts
Any other class win or place - 2 pts
 

Handicap [used for Hcps instead of class above] (15%)
Off current mark - 10pts
1lbs above last win - 8pts
2/3 lbs above last win - 6pts
4/5 lbs above last win - 4pts
6+ lbs above last win - 2 pts

Distance (15%)
Won dist - 10pts
Placed dist - 8pts
Won within 2f - 6pts
Placed within 2f - 4pts
No form 3f + - 2 pts

Ground (20%)
Won ground - 10pts
Placed placed - 8pts
Won near ground cond - 6pts
Placed near ground cond - 4pts
Ground not close - 2 pts

Course (10%)
Won - 10pts
Placed - 6pts
No form - 2pts

The above then gives me a horse score using Richards previous principles which we then convert in to a Horse % which is used to change into Odds based on the chart supplied by Brigadier.

I had a crack yesterday at 3 races at Doncaster, broken down as follows, Horse Score, Horse %, My Odds, Sky Bet Odds

2.05 Mares Chase
Floressa - 8.5, 17.8, 9/2, 2/1
Maries Rock - 6.5, 13.6, 6/1, 2/1
Irish Roe - 8.9, 18.6, 9/2, 11/1
Miranda - 7.5, 15.7, 6/1, 11/4
Raynas World - 8.7, 18.2, 9/2, 12/1
Sopat - 7.7, 16.1, 6/1, 40/1

With Raynas world scoring second highest and at 12/1 with the bookies (v my odds of 9/2) I opted for this selection. Miranda ended up an impressive winner, with Raynas world, Irish Roe and Sopat who all scored highly in my pricing of the race finishing 25+ lengths behind.

2:40 Novice Hurdle
Shang Tang - 3.5, 4.5, 21/1, 10/1
Ashtown Lad - 6.4, 8.2, 11/1, 7/1
Ask A Honey Bee - 7.8, 10, 9/1, 9/2
Bobhopeornohope - 8.8, 11.2, 8/1, 6/1
Castle Robin - 6.4, 8.2, 11/1, 17/2
Emir Sacree - 6.6, 8.4, 11/1, 6/1
Exploituer - 6.8, 8.7, 11/1, 10/1
Fern Hill - 6.4, 8.2, 11/1, 9/1
Pats Fancy - 7.9, 10.1, 9/1, 5/1
Portstorm - 7.3, 9.3, 9/1, 33/1
The Cob - 6, 7.7, 12/1, 22/1
Took The Lot - 4.4, 5.6, 17/1, 40/1

Bobhopenohope was the selection as I thought his performances in higher class races would be the difference. Interestingly the fourth highest rated horse in the field, Portstorm had a massive race at 50/1 finishing 2nd to the equally game The Cob at 25/1. I suppose this is a good example of trusting the process and not trying to pick with the winner as such but spotting the horse with the best value. Especially with such wide open racing that was on display yesterday at Doncaster.

15:15 Mares Handicap Hurdle
Mr Malarkey - 8, 9.4, 10/1, 22/1
Aye Right - 6.7, 7.9, 12/1, 15/2
Give me a Copper - 8.4, 9.9, 9/1, 12/1
Canelo - 8.8, 10.4, 9/1, 6/1
Taking Risks - 8.2, 9.7, 9/1, 33/1
Rockys Treasure - 8.2, 9.7, 9/1, 33/1
One for the Team - 6.4, 7.6, 12/1, 11/2
Boldmere - 8, 9.4, 10/1, 7/1
The Butcher Said - 7.6, 9.0, 10/1, 20/1
Cap Du Nord - 7.7, 9.1, 10/1, 4/1
Musical Slave - 6.1, 7.2, 13/1, 9/2

With Rockys Treasue joint highest scoring horse offering considerable value I went EW on him (he got pulled up). But again, The fourth highest scoring horse who presented excellent value based on the above was the eventual winner, Taking Risks at 40/1.

Whilst it wasn’t my day yesterday, it certainly appears the base principles, based on objective analysis are having some success.
 

My only concern is that a lot of the scores appear to be very close. So I’m not sure if my scoring criteria needs to be adjusted?

[Pricing your own race]

Hi all,

New to the forums, but decided to sign up as I’d inadvertently stumbled across this discussion.

I’ve been reading the comments and I’m keen to learn more about pricing up your own race and determining value based on your own assessment. For me, nothing better then picking an outsider who runs well, even if it’s only placed.

I’ve been trying to follow the principles, and have drawn up my own spreadsheet. But having worked through a few races I’m not sure I’m fully on board with the concept. Would anyone be willing to have a quick look to see where I’m going wrong?

I think the possible down fall maybe that I don’t use my own form rating and rely solely on the Official Ratings.

Any help or advice is appreciated - hopefully I’ll be able to add some value into the discussion.

Cheers,

Robbo