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Racing Chat - Saturday 24th August
The Brigadier replied to The Brigadier's topic in At The Races - Racing Forum
Thanks @In Play Race Reader - your kind words mean a lot -
Racing Chat - Saturday 24th August
The Brigadier replied to The Brigadier's topic in At The Races - Racing Forum
Unfortunately not - kicking myself for not having the Melrose & Ebor double @ 20/1 and 9/1, a 209/1 double. Still a very good day and thanks for your kind words - always appreciated @Robski -
York 1.50 The first of seven races covered by the ITV cameras today is the 1M 1F Sky Bet Strensall Stakes, a Group 3 contest which has attracted a field of nine. The pick and form choice is the Andrew Balding trained See The Fire, the only filly in the race. Having finished a creditable fourth in the Eclipse (beaten only 7 1/2L) by City Of Troy she stepped forward again to run the Aidan O’Brien filly Opera Singer to a neck in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood. She’s the highest rated in the race and will take some beating if running up to those last two runs. Owen Burrows’s Alyanaabi ran a bit flat last time but may not have truly stayed 10F that day and the drop back a furlong looks a good move - he rates the biggest danger to the pick. SEE THE FIRE 1 point win @ 11/4 William Hill Goodwood 2.05 The Group 3 7F William Hill Prestige Fillies’ Stakes for two year old fillies is up next in which we have a field of ten following the defection of favourite Formal due to the ground. She would have been a strong fancy but we’re wait for another day for her on better ground. The obvious one in Formal’s absence is the once raced Ralph Beckett trained Tabiti, a Kingman filly who did it well on her debut at Newmarket in a maiden on fast ground. Shes unproven on soft mind with her twice raced dam only racing on fast ground (her sire won twice at the highest level on soft so some hope there). I’ll take a chance though with John & Sean Quinn’s Royalty Bay who’s already shown her liking for easy ground winning at Ripon and York on soft ground and only went down by a short neck in a Group 3 fillies contest at Deauville when last seen. Quinn has been amongst the winners this week at York with Jm Jungle and the filly will be ridden by Jason Hart. ROYALTY BAY 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123 York 2.25 A field of sixteen assemble for the class 2 1M 6F Sky Bet Melrose Handicap for three-year-olds. The race looks wide open with the likes of Sir Michael Stoute’s easy Wolverhampton winner Reaching High and Andrew Balding’s battling 2M Ascot winner Tactician among the principals. I’ll take a flyer on an outsider each way with additional places in the shape of Tom Clover’s Tabletalk who’s stepping up to 1M 6F for the first time. The lightly raced Camelot colt is only having his fifth career start having broken his maiden at Chelmsford in May prior to running tenth in the Epsom Derby (beaten 19L). Following a 55 day break he ran a good third at Ascot in a 1M 4F handicap with the runner up Insanity franking the form since by winning at the Shergar Cup meeting back at the same track . Rossa Ryan rides from a favourable draw in 4 and looks a value each way play. TABLETALK 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 Goodwood 2.40 A disappointing turnout of just five here for the Group 2 William Hill Celebration Mile. With a band of rain coming across and the ground certain to ease (it’s already good to soft (good in places), as I write this on Friday afternoon, there has to be a likelihood that the current favourite Lead Artist will be pulled out. Simon & Ed Crisford’s Poker Face ran a shocker last time but this is his ground so has an obvious chance if you’re willing to forgive him that poor run last time. The bet however is the Karl Burke trained Ice Max. He looked smart when winning handicaps at Bath and Musselburgh in April on a soft surface and hasn’t been disgraced twice since in pattern company. This looks a good opportunity for him in what may turn out to be a very winnable contest. ICE MAX 1 point win 9/1 bet365 York 3.00 Just eight have declared for the Group 2 7F Sky Bet City Of York Stakes. Ralph Beckett’s Kinross has won the event the last two years under Frankie Dettori but is getting no younger now as a seven year old and he can help make the market for the confident pick in the shape of the John & Thady Gosden trained Audience who was a 3/4L second to Kinross in this last year although it’s fair to say he’s taken his form to another level since whilst Kinross may not be firing on all cylinders. Audience started this campaign with an emphatic Group 1 Lockinge victory at Newbury when making all over a mile from Charyn. He was subsequently rather disappointing at Royal Ascot behind the same horse but bounced back to form at today’s trip when an easy 4L winner at Goodwood with Kinross (and Art Power) behind. He’s 5lb better off today with that pair and with the likelihood of regular rider Rab Havlin forcing the pace looks one to get stuck into today. AUDIENCE 2 points win @ 7/4 bet365 York 3.35 The day’s big handicap is the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap run over 1M 6F with a guaranteed purse of £500,000. A maximum field of twenty two have declared including Aidan O’Brien’s Queenstown who’s bumped into top stayer and stable companion Kyprios on his last two starts and looks a player although is drawn very wide in 22 (although the last two winners were drawn out there in stalls 20 and 24 all be it under Frankie Dettori masterclass rides) and Willie Mullins’s unexposed Hipop De Loire who was last seen finishing runner up to his stable mate Jackfinbar in a Galway maiden hurdle. In a wide open contest the one that I like is the Henry De Bromhead trained six year old Magical Zoe who’s been on my radar for this race for a while now. A smart hurdler who is currently rated 143 finishing fourth in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. The mare has qualified for a mark on the level winning a Down Royal maiden and finishing third in a Group 3 at Fairyhouse over today’s trip. Billy Lee has the ride from stall 1. MAGICAL ZOE 1 point each way @ 9/1 Unibet 1/5h 123456 York 4.10 A big field class 2 6F handicap is up next with nineteen sprinters spread across the course. Low numbers have seemed to have the call in sprints this week and it’s three year old Elmonjed from stall 2 who catches the eye here. William Haggas’s Shadwell owned son of Blue Point stepped forward to win the valuable Fitzdares Sprint Final at Windsor twelve days ago in first time blinkers, holding on well and with just a 2lb rise to contend with can be competitive under Tom Marquand. Last year’s dead heaters Albasheer and Summerghand (also won this in 2022) are others to consider in an open handicap. ELMONJED 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5 12345
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York 1.50 Day three of York’s Ebor meeting begins with the class 2 1M 4F Sky Bet Handicap with a field of thirteen. Shadow Dance is an interesting runner of Roger Varian’s who could do with a pick me up having lost one of his main owners Sheikh Obaid earlier in the week but may find the ground too fast and a better option maybe Andrew Balding’s Lieber Power who is officially 4lb well in today. The consistent Cracksman four year old was a course and distance winner back in July and only went down by a neck in a valuable Racing League handicap at Windsor last week under today’s pilot Oisin Murphy. Racing off of the same handicap mark he looks sure to be thereabouts in this competitive handicap. LIEBER POWER 1 point each way @ 9/1William Hill 1/5th 1234 York 2.25 The Group 2 Weatherby’s Hamilton Lonsdale Cup is run over 2M 56 yards and has attracted a field of nine stayers.Best in at the weights is the Aidan O’Brien trained Point Lonsdale who’s stepping up in trip here today. He impressed at Chester in May over 1M 5 1/2F which is the furthest the five year has raced over and at his current odds is worth opposing with stamina doubts. The Gosden’s Gregory appreciated coming back to 2M when third to Kyprios in the Goodwood Cup last month but has a history of bleeding. Vauban is the other one at the head of the market but he too has stamina to prove at 2M even if he did finish fourth, beaten 9L, in the Ascot Gold Cup and it may just be worth opposing the front end of the market with Hughie Morrison’s seven year old Quickthorn. There doesn’t appear to be too much in the way of pace in the race (although Point Lonsdale can go forward along with Night Sparkle and Tashkan) and the race is maybe set up for Quickthorn who scored by 14L in this race when making all with a easy lead back in 2022. He’s yet to secure that easy lead that he seems to relish in two runs this season at Ascot and Sandown and he looks value especially if Tom Marquand can get him out in front. QUICKTHORN 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 123 York 3.00 A field of ten run in the Group 2 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes run over 6F for two-year-old colts and geldings.There’s plenty of juvenile form from Goodwood on view with 25/1 Molecomb winner Big Mojo and Richmond second and fourth The Strikin Viking and Billboard Star in opposition. All have claims but it’s the Aidan O’Brien trained Camille Pissarro that appeals to me. His best run of four came last time out when chasing home Babouche in the Group 3 Anglesey Stakes at The Curragh in July. He only went down by half a length and with the winner going on to lower the colours of Whistlejack in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes next time out the form looks rock solid. At an each way price he can be backed win and place with Ryan Moore in the saddle for a team tat have been in blistering form already this week on the Knavesmire. CAMILLE PISSARO 1 point each way @ 5/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234 York 3.35 An intriguing Group 1 Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes run over 5F has attracted a field of fourteen sprinters in which we have the third round of Australian speedster Asfoora against Big Evs which currently lies at one all. Their latest duel came in the King George Qatar Stakes at Goodwood when Mick Appleby’s Big Evs came out best by the minimal of margins with Henry Dwyer’s Asfoora not getting the rub of the race in second. The Aussie horse is 6lb better off today and that should be enough to turn the tables and he looks the pick especially with Big Evs drawn on the wing in stall 14. Last year’s third Bradsell is the other one I like who is worth a small each way saver. He may not have been drawn that well when third last year and opened his season with a victory in listed company at Deauville earlier this month. ASFOORA 1 point win @ 9/4 William Hill BRADSELL 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 York 4.10 The last of five races covered by the ITV cameras is the 1M 2 1/2F Fillies handicap which has attracted a field of seventeen. There shouldn’t be much between the Goodwood one-two Al Anoud and Power Of Destiny with preference for the latter trained by Sir Michael Stoute who may have more improvement to come and should run a big race. Others with chances are the 2lb well in Shemozzle and Battle Queen who’s stepping up 2F in distance. The pin drops on Power Of Destiny though who is only having his fifth career start having won his maiden at Haydock in June and made a decent handicap debut when going down by a head to Al Anoud at Goodwood. Oisin Murphy was on board that day and retains the ride on the likeable Sea The Stars filly. POWER OF DESTINY 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345 York 4.45 The most valuable maiden in the racing calendar is the class 2 British Stallion Studs EBF Convivial Maiden with a first prize pot of £51,540. Not surprisingly for the money there’s a maximum field of twenty declared. Thirteen of the 20 have raced before with the one that takes my eye the Ralph Beckett trained Angelo Buonarroti who was in the care of Raphael Freire for owners Amo Racing when making his debut in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot where he ran with plenty of credit for a debutant in finishing ninth, beaten just 3L. He was down to run at Goodwood but was pulled out on the morning with a vet’s certificate. With that run behind him he can take a step forward and take this maiden under David Egan. The biggest danger may come from Royal Varian’s Ultrasoul whose debut run when runner up in a Yarmouth maiden has worked out well. ANGELO BUONARROTI 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365 York 5.20 The last race of seven on day three of this year’s York Ebor meeting is the class 2 three-year-old 1M Sky Bet Mile Handicap featuring nineteen runners. It has a wide open look about it but one horse who could be well treated on his handicap debut is the Roger Varian trained Dosman. A winner at Kempton on the all-weather he improved under a penalty 17 days later when third of 14 in a Newmarket novice stakes won by Ombudsman with Arabian Light in second spot. Both that pair have franked the form since by winning twice and are now rated 111 and 98 respectively. Even the fifth First Conquest has won a valuable handicap since and is now rated 98. Dosman was giving them all weight that day and his initial handicap mark of 97 could be lenient. A nice draw in stall 2 is another bonus and with Silvestre De Sousa riding looks one to be with each way. DOSMAN 1 point each way @ 7/1 Ladbrokes 1/5th 12345
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Racing Chat - Thurs 22nd Aug (York day 2)
The Brigadier replied to richard-westwood's topic in At The Races - Racing Forum
York 1.50 Day two of York’s Ebor meeting kicks off with a nine runner 6F Group 2 Lowther Stakes for two-year-old fillies. Karl Burke’s Leovanni hasn’t been seen since winning the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot over 5F and steps up in distance today. There are mixed messages from the form of that win and a 3lb penalty doesn’t help her cause either. The other filly heading the market alongside Leovanni is the Aidan O’Brien trained Heaven’s Gate who won a valuable race at Naas at the beginning of the month and has to be a player with Ryan Moore in the plate. I’m happy enough to take the pair of them on mind and like the look of Eve Johnson Houghton’s Betty Clover. The grey daughter of Time Test showed improved form for stepping up to 6F at Ascot on King George day when reeled in by Shimmering going down by a neck with the re-opposing Tales Of The Heart 1/2L back in third. Simmering has franked the form in no uncertain manner when running away with a Group 2 in France last weekend and Betty Clover looks decent each way value to confirm the Ascot form with Tales Of The Heart under regular rider Georgia Dobie. BETTY CLOVER 1 point each way @ 11/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123 York 2.25 A maximum field of twenty two run in the class 2 6F Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes in which the winner will collect a cool £250,000. There are many here which we can easily put a line through and only a small handful can be seriously considered. The best in at the weights is Adrian Nicholls’s filly Maw Lam who has kept good company since winning on her debut at Thirsk placing three times. Also on the short list is the Richard Hannon trained An Outlaw’s Grace who’s not been disgraced in Group 2 company on his last two starts and has the added assistance in the saddle of Ryan Moore. Hannon has done very well in this race over the years winning it five times out of the last 8 years and his representative is a major player. The one I like however is the Irish raider Arizona Blaze who’s been on the go since the first day of the Irish flat season at The Curragh in March and produced his best effort of six last time out when going down to two of the best juveniles around in Babouche and Whistlejacket by just over 3L in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh. The form has already been franked by the runner up winning the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville last weekend and he looks sure to be thereabouts despite having to give weight to all. ARIZONA BLAZE 2 points win @ York 3.00 Nineteen have declared for the class 2 Clipper Handicap run over a mile. The one to beat is surely the William Haggas trained Elnajmm, a lightly raced son of Sea The Stars who holds a future Group 1 entry at Ascot on Champions Day later in the year. He defied a 10lb rise when running out a comfortable winner at Ascot on King George day when very well backed and although the official handicapper has raised him 8lb for that victory he only has to carry a 6lb penalty so is 2lb well in here. Tom Marquand was in the saddle that day and keeps the ride with the only negative being a wide draw in stall 17. He’s the selection. There are many others who hold each way claims including one of David O’Meara’s six runners in the Oisin Murphy ridden New Image and three year old Thunder Run who is still on the upgrade. ELNAJMM 1 point win @ 11/4 BetVictor York 3.35 Eight run in the Pertemps Network Yorkshire Oaks, a Group 1 contest for fillies and mares run over 1M 4F. The race does have a sub-standard look about it this year with Bluestocking deciding to run in the International on day one. John & Thady Gosden have a decent hand with the top rated five year old Emily Upjohn and improver Queen Of The Pride representing Clarehaven Stables. The former is stepping up 2F in trip but has been rather disappointing this season so preference has to be Queen Of The Pride who was only having her fifth career start when running out a 3L winner of the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks last month. This is a rise in grade but she looks up to it and can take this valuable contest. Ralph Beckett’s You Got To Me won the Irish Oaks last time from the slightly unlucky Aidan O’Brien runner Content and there may not be much between them again. QUEEN OF THE PRIDE 1 point win @ 11/4 Betway York 4.10 The 1M 4F listed Galtres Stakes is up next and features eleven fillies or mares. The warm favourite is the William Haggas trained three-year-old Sea Just In Time who’s looked good in winning at Newmarket and Kempton from three starts this season. She was a bit disappointing in listed company at Goodwood in between those two victories mind and although she can obviously win this looks scant value at around 6/4. The value bet may be the Irish challenger Satin. Jessie Harrington has booked Ryan Moore which looks quite significant and as the top rated filly in the race can run a big race each way. She no doubt needed her first run of the season at Gowran Park last week when finishing last of four when easy to back. She’s sure to have sharpened up for that run and is better judged on his Leopardstown handicap win last September. SATIN 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 123 York 4.45 A valuable 7F class 2 nursery is up next with a decent sized field of seventeen. Top weight Age Of Gold was a bit disappointing last time out at Royal Ascot when a bit of a steamer and Charlie Appleby’s Frankel juvenile has been gelded since. He’s very much on the short list along with Goodwood maiden dead heater Spell Master who once again has the services of Oisin Murphy today. The pick though is Age Of Gold whose Yarmouth victory on his debut has worked out really well with the second and third both winning since. Entering handicaps off of a mark of just 89 he may be well treated. AGE OF GOLD 1 point each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5 12345 York 5.20 Day two of the York Ebor meeting concludes with a valuable 7F fillies handicap for fillies and mares with eighteen having declared. The race has a wide open look about it and I’m with one who I napped last time but had no luck in the run at all under Paul Mulrennan. Key To Cotai finished an unlucky fourth in a Haydock handicap won by the re-opposing Sunfall, Back See Da and Mereside Diva. The selection has 1 1/4L to make up on the first pair but is 3lb and 2lb better off respectively. Not only did Mulrennan find himself with nowhere to go inside the final furlong but he dropped his whip soon after the start and with William Buick taking over can run a big race each way with additional places. KEY TO COTAI 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345 -
I'm sorry but the horse racing odds are appalling - pretty much bottom price (and in some instances significantly shorter). Using strange decimals odds as well. Since when has 111/2 been acceptable ! There are a few firms using the same feed it seems, bet442 being one and I won't be going anywhere near them !!
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Racing Chat -Weds 21st August (York day 1)
The Brigadier replied to richard-westwood's topic in At The Races - Racing Forum
York 1.50 The first race of the four day York Ebor meeting is a real head scratcher in the shape of the 5 1/2F class 2 Symphony Group Handicap which has attracted a maximum field of twenty two. Many hold claims but if there is one horse who may be better than his current handicap mark it is the Geoff Oldroyd three-year-old Pocklington. This is only his fifth career start and he is held in some regard by his trainer who did so well with Pocklington’s dam Ladies Are Forever, who won three Group 3 sprints here on the Knavesmire. This will be his handicap debut having won twice on the all-weather at Newcastle earlier this year followed by creditable efforts when fifth in listed class at Newbury and tenth (of 14) in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup having been pulled out of the big Macmillan Sprint Handicap due to the softening of the ground. An initial mark of 96 may be lenient and having had his wind tinkered with since last seen is a value each way play in a wide open handicap with the ground very much in his favour. POCKLINGTON 1 point each way @ 14/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456 York 2.25 Eleven two-year-olds run in the Group 3 Tattersalls Acomb Stakes run over 7F. The two leading protagonists are the Aidan O’Brien trained The Lion In Winter who made quite an impression when winning a Curragh maiden last month on his debut, coming late to put 2 1/2L ahead of his rivals. The third then and the Ballydoyle number one on the day Ides Of March has won since to frank the form and the Charlie Appleby trained Ruling Court who too looked a horse with a big future when an impressive winner of a Sandown maiden on his debut with the third also winning and the runner up running well in defeat since. The race can fall to one of these two with slight preference for the latter who cost a cool 2.3 million euros at the Arqana breeze ups in May of this year. I just can’t get out of mind that The Lion In Winter wasn’t the stable number one on his debut so the selection is Ruling Court. RULING COURT 2 points win @ 6/5 William Hill York 3.00 A small but selective field of just six have declared fr the 1M 4F Group 2 Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes. Aidan O’Brien saddles three of the sextet in the shape of Illinois (Wayne Lordan), Euphonic (Declan McDonagh) and Los Angeles (Ryan Moore). The latter is the pick of the trio having been supplemented for this at the cost of £20,000. Third in the Epsom Derby to stable mate City Of Troy he won the Irish Derby four weeks later, a race for which he has to shoulder a 5lb penalty here. 1 1/2L behind Los Angeles in the Epsom Derby was Deira Mile who is being aimed at the St Leger and may find today’s ground conditions too lively. The big stumbling block to the O’Brien raiders is the Harry Charlton trained King’s Gambit who is stepping up to 1M 4F for the first time here. At today’s weights he is the highest rated of the six and if he stays will be a big danger to Los Angeles who despite his 5lb penalty is the selection here. LOS ANGELES 1 point win @ 6/4 William Hill York 3.35 The feature race of day one and undoubtably the race of the meeting (possibly even season)is the 1M 2F Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes which has attracted a high class field of thirteen including two French, two Irish and a Japanese runner. The favourite is this year’s Epsom Derby winner and Coral Eclipse winner City Of Troy trained by Aidan O’Brien. His latest win was boosted recently when the runner up Al Riffa took a Group 1 in Germany by five lengths. His trainer sounds very confident with the fast ground in his favour and theres plenty to like bar the price. The two French raiders interest me with J Reynier’s Zarakem looking over priced considering he ran so well at Royal Ascot in finishing runner up to Auguste Rodin with Alflaila 3L behind in fifth. He can out run his odds but it’s his fellow country horse Calandgan that I want on my side at an each way price. His trainer F-H-Graffard has already plundered the King George at Ascot with Goliath and in Calandgan he has another top notcher who looked a revelation on his first run on fast ground when winning the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot by 6L under today’s pilot Stephane Pasquier. Others worth a mention are the Owen Burrows’ course specialist (2111) Alflaila, Ralph Beckett’s Bluestocking who is dropping in trip today but may prefer more juice in the ground and James Fanshawe’s Ambiente Friendly who is dropping to a trip that is likely to suit. An intriguing race where City Of Troy may well blitz them but at the current odds I would prefer top be backing Calandgan each way with a small each way saver on Zarakem. CALANNDAGAN 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123 ZARAKEM 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 123 York 4.10 The Skybet Stayers Handicap is a class 2 heritage handicap run over 2M and 56 yards and has attracted a maximum field of seventeen.Top weight Samui is interesting having won a Killarney handicap over 2M 1F by a staggering 17L although the handicapper has reacted by sticking him up 13lb. He can still be a player but it’s Harry Eustace’s six year old Divine Comedy that catches my eye. The consistent mare was last seen at Royal Ascot when going down by just half a length to Pledgeofallegiance in the 2M 4F Ascot Stakes Handicap. Apprentice Kaiya Fraser has ridden her on eleven of her last 12 starts so knows the horse well and looks set to run a big race. Knightswood is an interesting runner as he was a desperately unlucky loser at Goodwood last time but has to prove his stamina here stepping up to two miles for the first time. DIVINE COMEDY 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 York 4.45 A valuable class 2 Heritage Handicap over 5F featuring fifteen runners. It looks an open contest although I do have a feeling that top weight Designer may have been laid out for this. John Butler’s five year old has won this race for the last two years off of handicap marks of 87 and 92 and goes for the hat trick off of a mark of 96 although if taking his rider Brandon Wilkie’s 5lb claim into account is actually a pound below last years winning mark. The issue with him is that he hasn’t been seen for 319 days but he has proved in the past that he can go very well fresh with his form figures after a break of 61 days or more reading 114 with the fourth coming in listed company when a 14/1 chance. He has also had a wind operation and sports a first time tongue tie here and if ready to go looks each way value. DESIGNER 1 point each way @ 11/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234 York 5.20 Day one of the Ebor meeting finishes with a competitive 6F class 2 nursery with a field of seventeen. My two against the field are the Andrew Balding trained Handcuffed who is making his handicap debut and must be highly thought of as he has a future group entry in the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury in September and the Michael & David Easterby trained Scatter Penny who too is making his handicap debut following victories in a Nottingham maiden and a novice stakes contest at Pontefract under Jo Mason who keeps the ride here. The Elarqam filly may have got in lightly off of 85 and looks the each way pick. An interesting outsider is the Richard Fahey trained Peninsula Power whose trainer called him his best handicapped horse of the meeting on the excellent Nick Luck podcast earlier this week. SCATTER PENNY 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 -
Racing chat - Saturday 17th august
The Brigadier replied to richard-westwood's topic in At The Races - Racing Forum
Newbury 1.50 The first of seven races covered by ITV on one of the low quality Saturday’s of the season with the big York meeting just around the corner is the Group 3 BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes run over 1M 5 1/2F. Sumo Sam needs it softer, Roberto Escobar looks a former shade of the horse he once was and Al Qareem may be the biggest threat to the favourite Al Aasy. Trained at Newmarket by William Haggas and ridden today by Jim Crowley he has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his Group 3 Glorious Stakes victory on the Saturday of Goodwood when he had to wait on the rails for a gap but quickened up really well when it became available putting himself a length to the good on the line. This looks a weak Group 3 and he can win again all be it at skinny odds at a track where he’s won three of his 5 starts. AL AASY 1 point win 5/6 BetVictor Newmarket 2.05 Just nine have declared (and that could drop to eight with Eminency running at Windsor on Thursday night) for the unique 6F race open to horses that are coloured grey only. Jonathan Portman’s six year old Strike is in a rich vein of form at present having won three of his last four starts this season and actually won this very race two years ago from a 3lb lower mark (he was 6th last year). Apprentice Olivia Tubb has ridden the six year old to victory on his last two starts at Newbury and Windsor but is replaced today by David Egan and in a very winnable handicap looks the one to be with. STRIKE 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123 Newbury 2.25 Ten run in this class 3 5F handicap which is worth £15,702 to the winner. One horse who could be extremely well handicapped is Michaela’s Boy who has joined sprint king Robert Cowell from Mick Appleby following two modest efforts back in the spring having dropped 7lb. He’s also been gelded and given a wind operation so if he’s anywhere near his form from last summer which included a head second in the valuable Rockingham Handicap at The Curragh from a handicap mark 10lb higher he could take some stopping for his new handler. The booking of Tom Marquand looks a positive one. The recent form horse is the Richard Hannon runner The Big Board who looks the biggest danger to the pick. MICHAELA’S BOY 1 point each way @ 15/2 BetVictor 1/5th 123 Ripon 2.45 One of two big field six furlong sprints shown by ITV today is the class 4 William Hill Silver Trophy Handicap with eighteen sprint handicappers declaring. A tough contest as you would expect but the one that catches my eye is last year’s winner Roundhay Park, trained by Nigel Tinker and named after a park in Leeds. Faye McManoman was in the saddle when scoring by half a length in this last year off of a handicap mark 3lb higher than today’s from stall 10. He’ll exit stall 14 this time round and the nine yaer old showed last time when sixth at York that he could be about to bounce back to form under his regular rider McManoman. He has a good record here which reads 1100342312 and I expect a bold showing from the veteran. ROUNDHAY PARK 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 ROUNDHAY PARK & RAMAZAN (3.20) 1/4 point each way double 8/1 & 10/1 Newbury 3.00 A field of thirteen have declared for this class 2 0-100 7F handicap. The race has an open look about it with my pair against the field being Charlie Hills’s Zabriskie Point who ran with promise last time at Goodwood and has been dropped a couple of pounds looking like he was building up to something and the William Haggas trained Waleefy who was an impressive winner at Doncaster at the beginning of the month by 2L and has been shunted up 8lb for that victory. Slight preference is for the latter who was having only his sixth ever start at Doncaster and could be improving fast although the 2nd and 3rd have been beaten since he could only beat what was in the race. Jim Crowley rides for his retained owners Shadwell Stud. WALEEFY 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 Ripon 3.20 The day’s big handicap is the class 2 6F Great St Wilfrid Handicap in which we have a near maximum field of nineteen runners. Many can be given chances with the draw obviously another ponderable. The 2.45 will give us a guide to where you want to be drawn but with the last two winners of this race exiting from stall 6 and the previous runnings favouring high numbers I’m not gong to get too wrapped up on where the best place to be drawn is. Last year’s runner up Summerghand is now 8lb lower and looks a player but the horse I like is top weight Ramazan who will be ridden by 3lb claimer Oisin McSweeney and will come out of stall 6 (the same stall as the last two winners). He’s kept good company this season having not been disgraced in Group 3 company at Haydock and Newcastle prior to a decent eighth of 25 in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood where he raced in the unfavored pack in the centre of the track, finishing 3rd in that bunch. He had Summerghand, Mr Wagyu and Dare To Hope behind that day and he looks good each way value despite his big weight. RAMAZAN 1 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456 Newbury 3.35 The day’s feature race is the Group 2 7F BetVictor Hungerford Stakes featuring seven classy types. Ed Walker’s English Oak is a lovely type who impressed at Royal Ascot but was a bit disappointing in this grade at Goodwood when a 7L fourth to Audience in the Lennox Stakes although his trainer has since stated that he shifted a shoe mid race so has a valid excuse. He looks sure to run well but preference is for the Harry Charlton runner Kikkuli who is officially rated a 4lb better horse than English Oak. The Juddmonte owned three year old is a half brother to none other than Frankel by Kingman and may have found the softening ground in France against him last time out when upped to Group 1 company for the first time, Back in grade and more importantly on better ground he looks the bet with Oisin Murphy in the saddle. KIKKULI 1 point win @ -
problem I personally have @MCLARKE is that my business is all geared around getting the value. If you're constantly beating the SP you'll be a winner long term and the exchanges are mainly geared around the last hour or so when the 'market' has corrected itself. Macbet welcome winners as they are old fashioned bookmakers who 'use' your bets if you're a winner to get rid and usually add to. Highly recommended.
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Always interesting to see new firms though obviously most have to be taken with plenty of caution nowadays. I don't know any of those @TomG I'm afraid. It gets tougher getting on with the major high street bookmakers but the three independents I always recommend who will lay a bet and not bog you down too much with red tape are MacBet, geoffbanks.bet and Starsports.bet
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Ascot 1.35 The first of six races televised by ITV from this year’s Shergar Cup meeting which feature four teams made up equally of male and female riders for the teams of the Rest of the World, Ladies, GB & Ireland and Europe. It’s not everyone’s cup of tea but there are six winners to be found so heres my thoughts on the first race the 5F Shergar Cup Dash, a class 2 race run over 5F with the maximum field of ten down to run. A few of these are dropping in trip and may not be suited by that including the favourite Apollo One who was an excellent second in last weekend Stewards Cup at Goodwood. One horse who is an out and out five furlong horse and is undoubtably well handicapped having won a handicap over course and distance last October from a 8lb higher mark is Badri. He bounced back to form for a new yard in Michael Herrington last time out at Hamilton when a creditable 1 1/2L second to the re-opposing Jordan Electrics and is 6lb better off here. Jockey Marie Velon will be making her Shergar Cup and Ascot debut here but has plenty of experience in her native France having won 495 races at the age of just 25. BADRI 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234 Ascot 2.10 The class 2 2M Shergar Cup Stayers Handicap is up next run over 2M with another maximum field of ten. The race really is all about the reserve of Gordon Elliott’s Samui who needs one to drop out up until 45 minutes before the actual race to get a run. He’s 13lb higher than when he ran away with a 2M 1F handicap at Killarney last month and would be hard to beat if getting a run. He’s worth a saver if he gets into the race but as it stands the pick is the Ian Williams trained Sheradann who is having just his third run for the trainer having won twice at around this trip in France for Francis Graffard on soft ground. He belied his 100/1 odds when running well to finish seventh (beaten only 2 1/4L) in arguably a better race than this at Goodwood behind Align The Stars at Goodwood at the beginning of the month, his first run on genuine fast ground and a reproduction of that stepping up in trip should see him thereabouts under his jockey Bauyrzhan Murzabayev who is riding at the Shergar Cup for the first time but has plenty of experience in Germany having ridden 776 career wins. SHERADANN 1 point each way @ 15/2 888Sport 1/5th 1234 Haydock 2.25 The first of three races from the Lancashire track covered by the ITV cameras today is this 1M class 3 handicap which has attracted a dozen runners. Ed Dunlop’s Sterling Knight is two from three at the track and is a possible but it’s Nigel Tinkler’s Theme Park that is the selection. The four-year-old bounced back to form in a class 4 handicap at York last month when, despite dwelling at the start and finding trouble in the run, ran on well to win by a neck with the fourth just beaten since and the sixth Zozimus winning earlier this week franking the form. A 4lb rise still leaves him 5lb lower than this time last year and with regular jockey Rowan Scott on board can follow up. THEME PARK 1 point each way @ 7/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234 Ascot 2.45 A maximum field of ten run in the class 2 1M 4F Shergar Cup Challenge Handicap. The two that I like here are the Ian Williams trained Dancing In Paris and Alan King’s Insanity. The later, who will be ridden by Rachael King, ran well over course and distance last time and has been upped 3lb for that effort whilst the former ran well at Goodwood over further and may appreciate dropping back in trip to a distance that he was impressive at in a twenty runner handicap at York in May. He’s a better price than Insnaity so he’s the selection and will be ridden today by Albert Sanna for team Europe. He too is making his Shergar Cup debut but is a multiple classic winner in his native Italy so there should be no problem from the saddle here. DANCING IN PARIS 1 point each way @ 7/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234 Haydock 3.00 Just seven run in the Group 3 Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes run over a distance of 1M 2F. The one they all have to beat if he’s straight enough is Owen Burrows’s Anmaat who was last seen winning the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp some 439 days ago. He has no penalty to carry here and has shown in the past that he can win fresh having won the valuable John Smith’s Cup Handicap at York first time out last season. He goes on any ground and as the highest rated horse in the field is the pick with the owners retained jockey Jim Crowley here to ride. The only three-year-old in the field Richard Hughes’s Bracken’s Laugh may give Anmaat the most to do. ANMAAT 2 points win @ 2/1 BetVictor Ascot 3.20 The class 2 6F Shergar Cup Sprint has attracted the maximum field of ten (with two reserves) and features one of the two best bets on the six race card in the shape of Owen Burrows’s Jarraaf. Dropped in trip he looked a sprinter going places when a cosy 2 1/2L winner over course and distance in July from Fresh. The handicapper has had his say by putting him up 8lb but with his handler in his usual top form can defy the rise and win again with the assistance of local jockey Billy Loughnane who is making his Shergar Cup debut. JARRAAF 2 points win @ 15/8 Boylesports Newmarket 3.40 The 7F JenningsBet Sweet Solera Stakes is a Group 3 contest for two-year-old fillies and has attracted a field of just seven this year. The two that stand out to me is the Aidan O’Brien trained Lake Victoria by Frankel out of dual Group 1 winner Quiet Reflection who won on her debut at The Curragh in June from subsequent easy winner Red Letter. She has stacks of improvement to come and although she doesn’t have Ryan Moore on top today (he’s riding at Leopardstown) she still looks to have a great chance under Sean Levey. Her big danger is surely the Godolphin runner and form horse Mountain Breeze who put a slightly disappointing run at Royal Ascot behind her when a decent 3/4L second in the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes here at the July meeting over 6F. A run that has already been franked. Both the protagonists are stepping up a furlong and it was a hard call between with the form of Mountain Breeze against the potential of Lake Victoria but the selection is Mountain Breeze who has the assistance of Pat Dobbs with Godolphin’s favoured jockeys in America this weekend. MOUNTAIN BREEZE 1 point win @ 15/8 William Hill Ascot 3.55 Only nine (one short of the maximum which is disappointing) have declared for the class 3 1M 4F Shergar Cup Classic Handicap. There is a horse here who could be way ahead of his mark in the shape of the William Haggas trained Soloman. He carries no penalty for his cosy victory in an apprentice handicap over 10F at Haydock last weekend under Ethan Jones and this looks a shrewd piece of placing by Haggas for this £39,344 first prize. He will be ridden by Albert Sanna who rides my pick Dancing In Paris in the 2.45 so let’s hope the Italian is in for a good day. SOLOMAN 2 points win @ 7/4 William Hill Ascot 4.30 The final race of the Shergar Cup meeting is the 1M Shergar Cup Mile, a class 2 handicap with a maximum field of ten participants. Top weight Carrytheone won at Chepstow in the Racing League on Thursday evening so theres a chance that the first reserve may get a run. I’m hoping so as it’s our old friend from Goodwood in Orbaan. He’s one of five that ran in the Coral Golden Mile eight days ago and although it was Bopedro who did the best of the quintet in finishing fifth he did have a clear run down the outside whilst his stablemate Orbaan was locked away on the rails having no sort of run. His finishing position of twelfth can be seriously marked up and in the hope that he gets a run (it’s money back if he doesn’t don’t forget) I’ll be with David O’Meara’s nine year ago at a double figure price. Another stablemate of his New Image is an interesting runner who ran a blinder here last time in a better race but that was over 7F and he has to prove his stamina today. ORBAAN (1st reserve) 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234 Haydock 4.45 A field of nine have declared for the listed Irish Stallions Farms EBF Dick Hern Stakes run over a mile for fillies and mares. It’s been seven years since the Classic generation took this event but they appear to hold a decent chance this season with the progressive Juddmonte owned Indelible. The Ralph Beckett trained daughter of Shamardal out of the top Group 1 mare Midday has run well on all three starts this season winning at Doncaster prior to a creditable fourth in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot and a career best 1 1/4L second to Spiritual in the listed Coral Distaff at Sandown on Eclipse day. She acts on any going it seems and as this is only her sixth career start may well be still improving. Hector Crouch has been on board for three of her 5 starts and is in the saddle today. INDELIBLE 1 point win @ 11/4 BetVictor
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Goodwood 1.50 The final day of Glorious Goodwood begins with the 1M 4F Group 3 Coral Glorious Stakes with just five declared to run. There’s only 4lb officially between the quintet with chances given to all five. Both Phantom Flight and Al Aasy were making their seasonal re-appearances when finishing first and second in the listed Steventon Stakes at Newbury a fortnight ago. One length separated the pair that day in favour of the former and it’s George Scott’s five year old gelding who gets the pick to confirm the form. That was his first run for Scott having being gelded and in a first time hood so any one or a combination of them helped him improve to score then and with his trainer in such fine form can go close. Aimeric is another with a chance along with the other pair Lions Pride and Relentless Voyager but it’s the Callum Shepherd ridden Phantom Flight for me. PHANTOM FLIGHT 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365 Newmarket 2.05 The first of two races shown by the ITV cameras today is this class 2 fillies nursery run over 6F. Nine of the dozen runners are making their handicap debuts so a close watch on the market is strongly advised. One of the nine who could be well handicapped is the Clive Cox trained Magic Mild who enters handicaps off a mark of 86. She made her third start a winning one in a maiden fillies maiden at the July meeting here when coming hom e unchallenged by 1 1/2L with subsequent winners back in 3rd and 5th. Miss Fascinator was the latter who re-opposes here with 3 3/4L to make up on the pick with only a one pound pull in her favour and I can’t see how some firms have her a shorter price than the selection. The ground was good to soft that day so if the ground rides fast she’ll have questions to answer but is still worth chancing with Saffie Osborne coming in for the ride with some of the bigger names riding at Goodwood. MAGIC MILD 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 Goodwood 2.25 A maximum field of fourteen run in the class 2 1M 6F Coral Summer Handicap. Andrew Balding’s Fairbanks landed a bit of a punt last time out at Newmarket’s July meeting on his first run at today’s trip and despite a 6lb rise in the weights can follow up here under Oisin Murphy who was on top last time out. He can take this en route to the Ebor Handicap at York later in the month. Back in fourth at Newmarket was the running on Charlie Johnston trained Knightswood who went down by 2 3/4L and is now 7lb better off at the revised weights. He can make the frame but for me this is all about Fairbanks. FAIRBANKS 1 point win @ 41 William Hill Newmarket 2.40 The 1M 4F listed British EBF Chalice Stakes is for fillies and mares only and has attracted a field of nine. Joint best on official ratings are John & Thad Gosden’s Lmay who has won only one of her ten starts and should go well but she’s not for me and Simon & Ed Crisford’s Fairy Glen. The latter is an interesting runner making her turf debut having won novice stakes events at Wolverhampton and Kempton in good style. She’s the pick here stepping up in grade. FAIRY GLEN 1 point win @ 7/2 BetVictor Goodwood 3.00 The 1M 6F Group 2 Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes for fillies and mares is up next with a dozen having declared to run. The best in at the weights is John & Thady Gosden’s Free Wind who went off an odds on shot in this race last year when failing to stay in the heavy ground. She went down by 6L to the impressive Bluestocking on her re-appearance which in hindsight wasn’t too bad an effort as that one went on to win the Group 1 Pretty Polly and finish runner up in last weekend’s King George at Ascot. Free Wind will be sharper for that run and looks the one they all have to beat. Last year’s winner Sumo Sam and French challenger Melo Melo would seem to need the ground to ease to have claims and maybe it’s David Menuisier’s Caius Chorister who is the biggest danger dropping in distance. FREE WIND 1 Pont win @ 3/1 William Hill Goodwood 3.35 The day’s big handicap is the twenty eight runner Coral Stewards Cup, a Heritage Handicap run over the straight 6F. As you would expect many have chances including last weekend’s Ascot winner Albasheer stepping up a furlong and Billyjo who was a bit unlucky earlier in the week over 7F here and sports first time cheek pieces. The one that catches my eye however is the Andrew Balding trained Purosangue who is 4lb well in today having finished runner up in a 5F soft ground Group 3 at Sandown a month ago after these weights were issued. He handles fast ground as well and the track shouldn’t be an issue having finished a neck runner up in the Molecomb Stakes here last year. This is his first handicap and with a lot of ticks in the right boxes is the one I want to be with. PUROSANGUE 1 point each way @ 8/1 Ladbrokes 1/5th 12345
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Goodwood 1.50 Day four of Glorious Goodwood kicks off with a nineteen runner class 2 handicap run over 2M 4 1/2F which will be started by flag. Last year’s winner Temporize trained by predominately jumps trainer Syd Hosie is 10lb higher this year but arrives in top form having won at Newbury over 2M last time out from a possible improver of William Haggas’s. Back in third that day was Hughie Morrison’s Kyle Of Lochalsh and on 3lb better terms and an additional half a mile can get closer. The 2022 one - two Master Milliner and Super Superjack are other possibles as we know they will stay this stamina sapping trip. The pick for me though is Kyle Of Lochalsh who can turn the stables on his Newbury conqueror Temporize with the extra half a mile in his favour. Last year’s runner up Robert Johnson is also worth a mention and a small each way saver as now racing for the first time for a new stable in Tracy Waggott and is now 6lb better off for a 1 1/4L beating from last year with Temporize when he didn’t get the run of the race. KYLE OF LOCHALSH 1 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5th12345 ROBERT JOHNSON 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 Goodwood 2.25 Ten run in the Group 3 1M Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes for three year olds. Roger Varian’s Al Musmak bounced back to form 22 days ago at Newmarket in listed company when beating Kitty Rose by 2 1/4L with Lead Artist (3rd), Socialite (4th) and Native American (5th) all behind and seemingly held here. Roger Teal’s Dancing Gemini is back to a mile, the trip of his best run this season after flirting with 12F and 10F on his last two starts and is a player. Task Force looks the best each way value having finished 7th in the 2000 Guineas and Jersey stakes this season and sporting a first time tongue tie today but the selection has to be Al Musmak who is on the upgrade still it seems and I’m surprised he’s not shorter than his current odds. AL MUSMAK 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill Goodwood 3.00 A maximum field of twenty contest one of the biggest ‘draw’ races in the racing calendar. The 1M Coral Golden Mile Handicap favours (although not last year on soft ground) low numbers with the previous nine year’s winners exiting from stalls 2, 5, 2, 3, 3, 3, 1, 9 and 5. Yorkshire trainer David O’Meara has a good record in this race having won it twice in the last four years and saddles 8 of the 20 runners. I like the look of his 2022 winner Orbaan who won cosily that day by 3 1/4L from stable mate Blue For You and off of the same handicap mark can run a big race from stall 4 under Silvestre De Sousa despite being the oldest in the field at nine. His stable mate and possibly the pick of stable jockey Danny Tudhope, Blue For You, has also fared well with the draw in stall 5 and with his recent York win already boosted by the runner up Northern Express winning the big 7F heritage handicap at Ascot last Saturday can also go well. ORBAAN 1 Point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 BLUE FOR YOU 1 point each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345 1/4 point reverse forecast the pair Goodwood 3.35 Thirteen have declared for the Group 2 King George Qatar Stakes run over one of the fastest five furlongs in the world. Australian runner Asfoora took the KIng Charles III Stakes at Ascot in good style and must go well although she does have to shoulder a 5lb penalty today. Back in third that day was Mick Appleby’s Big Evs beaten only 1 1/2L and now 2lb better off. He is a consistent sprinter who won the Molecomb as a two year old at the meeting last season and can turn the tables on his rival. Others with chances are the George Boughey trained Believing and Clive Cox’s three year old Jasour but I’ll take Big Evs to show his usual speed and score under Tom Marquand. BIG EVS 1 point win @ 10/3 Betfred
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One of my favourite races of the season is nearly upon us with Friday's Coral Golden Mile having declared with twenty one horses a couple of hours ago. Only twenty can run so one of the favourites, and only 3yo, in the race Native Warrior needs one to drop out to get a run (which is actually highly likely as with the 'Chester' effect one of the high draws will no doubt go down with a cough/ lameness / travel - delete where applicable or not!). The reason it is one of my favourite races of the season and one that has been highly profitable to me over the years is the draw. The configuration of the track for Friday is such that with the track is at it's tightest with a sharp right hand turn after 2F which gives those drawn low (as long as they can keep their early position) a massive advantage. Last year's race was run on soft ground and that draw theory went out the window to my financial displeasure as Johan won from stall 18 but the previous 9 years the winners were drawn 2, 5, 2, 3, 3 , 3, 1, 9 and 5. I dismiss anything drawn 8 or above for punting purposes and think the two to be on is the one-two from two years ago in the shape of the David O'Meara duo Orbaan and Blue For You. Drawn 2 and 1 respectively Orbann quickened away from his stablemate to win cosily by 3 1/4L. Orbaan is 5lb better off here and must be backed each way. The negatives for him are that he's the oldest in the field at nine years old and stable jockey Danny Tudhope appears to have chosen Blue For You although Silvestre De Sousa is a fair replacement. Orbaan proved on his penultimate run at Carlisle that he's still more than capable and with fast conditions in his favour can be backed each way with additional places with a each way saver on his stable mate Blue For You who is 1lb well in here with his latest win at York being boosted by the runner up winning the big 7F handicap at Ascot last Saturday. Paddy Power went 40/1 about Orbaan after the declarations (they're now 12/1) but I would back him at 12/1 or bigger. I've taken 18/1. ORBAAN 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 BLUE FOR YOU 1 point each way 11/2 Paddy Power
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Goodwood 1.50 The first of four races covered by the ITV cameras today is the class 2 1M 2F Coral Kincsem Handicap which has attracted fourteen three-year-olds. Plenty can be given chances with my pair against the field being Ed Walker’s Into Battle who has been gelded since last seen and should run well under Hollie Doyle and the selection which is the Hugo Palmer trained Watcha Matey who was an easy winner at Newmarket and Musselburgh earlier this season and hasn’t been disgraced since in decent three-year-old handicaps at Ascot and Newmarket over a mile. He may well improve for stepping up to 10F here with the icing on the cake the booking of Ryan Moore. He can be booked each way with additional places. WATCHA MATEY 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 Goodwood 2.25 Nine two-year-old colts run in the Group 2 6F Markel Richmond Stakes in which Hamad Al Jehani’s The Strikin Viking is a warm favourite following a decent effort when running second in a Group 2 at The Curragh, beaten half a length by Henri Matisse when trained by Kevin Ryan. The Inns Of Court colt has been sold privately since, no doubt for a kings ransom to Wathnan Racing and transferred to the up and coming Al Jehani Newmarket stable. He looks sure to go well and is the most likely winner but has been well found in the market and I would rather player one at a bigger price each way. One horse who still remains un-exposed is the Paul & Oliver Cole trained King Of Bears. He stepped forward for his debut when winning a Newbury novice stakes by 1 1/4L from Jet Packer (4th won since) and although this is a big step up in class is quite highly thought of by his trainers and can out run his odds. KING OF BEARS 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 123 Goodwood 3.00 Only five have declared for the Group 3 John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes run over 1M 4F for three year olds. Aidan O’Brien has a plethora of decent middle distance three-year-olds and saddles his unbeaten Galileo colt Jan Brueghel, named after a Belgium painter from the 1700’s. He’s looked an exciting prospect in winning a maiden and a Group 3 at The Curragh over 10F and should appreciate this step up 2F to 1M 4F today under Ryan Moore. He does have to shoulder a 3lb penalty for that Group 3 victory and is the one to beat and so the pick here. The best of the other quartet may turn out to be David Simcock’s Sayedaty Sadaty who was a 7 1/2L fifth in the Epsom Derby and has left Andrew Balding to join Simcock since. JAN BRUEGHEL 1 point win @ 10/11 bet365 Goodwood 3.35 The day’s feature race is the Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes for fillies and mares which has attracted a classy field of ten. John & Thady Gosden’s Emily Upjohn went for home possibly too far out in the Pretty Polly Stakes at The Curragh last time out when finishing runner up to Bluestocking who has subsequently run a decent second in last weekend’s King George at Ascot. She can run well but it’s the three year old of Aidan O’Brien’s Opera Singer who looks the one to be with. Rated the best two year filly last season she badly needed her seasonal re-appearance when third in the Irish 1000 Guineas and was hardly disgraced in going down by a length to Porta Fortuna in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot which has an even better look about it now with that one going onto plunder the group 1 Falmouth Stakes by 3 3/4L at Newmarket. She’ll be hard to beat with Ryan Moore on board. OPERA SINGER 1 point win @ 15/8 William Hill.
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Goodwood 1.50 The first of four races televised by ITV Racing is the Coral Daily Rewards Shaker Handicap run over a distance of 1M 4F for three year olds. This year’s renewal looks an open affair with several arriving in decent form. The one horse that appears to be improving fast is the Andrew Balding trained Galileo gelding Subsequent. He made a winning handicap debut at Salisbury over today’s trip from the subsequent Sandown winner Spaceport and a 7lb rise in the handicap may not be enough to halt his progress. An outsider who could run well is Master Builder, one of two David Menuisier trained runners. He actually beat the selection Subsequent at Salisbury back in May at level weights and receives 6lb today. That victory did come on soft ground however and he does have to prove his liking for a sounder terrain. Menuisier’s other runner here is Goodwood Odyssey who looks fairly treated in first time blinkers and is another who could run well but it’s the Oisin Murphy ridden Subsequent for me. SUBSEQUENT 1 point each way @ 9/2 1/5th 1234 Goodwood 2.25 A field of eleven run in the Group 3 Visit Qatar Oak Tree Stakes for fillies and mares which includes the best bet on the card today. The horse that stands out here is the Roger Varian trained Jabaara who followed up listed victories at Musselburgh and Carlisle over today’s trip by running a highly creditable 3 3/4L second to the classy Porta Fortuna in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting. She had Rogue Millenium a head back in third that day and that one has run well in finishing 3rd in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild since. Today’s race represents a drop in grade and with the drop back to 7F likely to suit looks the one to be on with James Doyle retaining the ride for Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum. JABAARA 2 points win @ 11/4 Betway Goodwood 3.00 A good sized field of sixteen assemble for this 5F Jaeger-Lecoultre Molecomb Stakes, a Group 3 contest for two-year-olds. This year’s renewal has an open look about it with the form horse been Archie Watson’s Aesterius who is the joint highest rated following his listed Dragon Stakes victory at Sandown at the beginning of the month. He’s been priced accordingly and I will take my chances at one at a bigger price in the shape of Mick Appleby’s improving Mr Lightside. He followed up his Redcar win in June by an impressive front running performance at Nottingham a fortnight later when responding well to pressure to beat subsequent easy winner Hallasan by 2 1/4L. The stable took this race with the speedy Big Evs last year and at a nice each way price with additional places is worth backing each way with the firms paying four places. MR LIGHTSIDE 1 point each way @ 10/1 Boyles 1/5th 1234 Goodwood 3.35 The feature race of day two of the Goodwood Festival is the Group 1 1M Qatar Sussex Stakes which has drawn a small but select field of five following the unfortunate late defection of Rosallion who would have been a strong fancy. Two three-year-olds now take on three of their elders and it’s the classic generation I expect to come out on top. The pair ran against each other in the St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot with Aidan O’Brien's Henry Longfellow going down by a neck to Rosallion with Charlie Appleby’s Notable Speech a disappointing 6L further back. No excuse seemed to be forthcoming for that lack lustre run but any horse is forgiven one poor run and lets not forget how impressive he was in the 2000 Guineas. Drying ground looks to be against the French raider Facteur Cheval whilst the blinkered for first time Maljoom and Sonny Liston make up the sextet. A race to saviour but it will be no shock were Notable Speech to bounce back and beat Henry Longfellow. NATIVE APPROACH 1 point win @ 7/4 William Hill
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Goodwood 1.50 Day one of the five day Goodwood meeting kicks off with the ITV televised Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap run over 1M 2F with a first place purse of £51,400. A maximum field of eighteen have declared with the standout piece of form coming from the Roger Varian trained Enfjaar who took the John Smiths Cup at York 17 days ago. The Shadwell Estates pwned Lope De Vega gelding ran out a 1 3/4L winner that day with the re-opposing Tony Montana (3rd), Take Heart (8th), Dual Identity (9th), Crack Shot (14th) and Killybegs Warrior (26th and last) all behind. A 6lb rise looks fair enough and although he heads the market I feel he can confirm the form and win again with Jim Crowley replacing Jack Mitchell. The best of the bigger priced horses may well be the Hughie Morrison trained Stay Well who is 11lb better off for a 1 3/4L beating from Enfjaar at Chelmsford back in June. ENFJAAR 1 point win @ 3/1 bet365 Goodwood 2.25 Eight runners have declared for the Group 2 HKJC World Pool Vintage Stakes for two-year-olds run over 7F. Theres not much between the whole field with the likes of the Godolphin runner Aomori City and the Aidan O’Brien representative The Parthenon holding definite claims but at a bigger price I’ll chance the Clive Cox trained Arabian Sun who is the only horse in the field who has experience of this track when runner up on his debut prior to winning at Salisbury 18 days later in a race in which the runner up and fourth have both won since. He’ll have to improve again but that is quite possible and at a double figure price and fingers crossed eight runners he appeals to me. ARABIAN SUN 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 123 Goodwood 3.00 Eight run in the £102,078 to the winner HKJC World Pool Lennox Stakes, a Group 2 contest run over 7F. Audience has it to do under a 5lb penalty for his Lockinge victory whilst the improving English Oak looks a possible although this is a step up in grade having won the Buckingham Palace Stakes Handicap at Royal Ascot last time out. He has another 7lb to reach the top rated here but can still run well. The bet however has to be Ralph Beckett’s Kinross who has form figures in this race over the past three years that read 121. His two starts over 6F this season should have got him ready for this and although he would prefer easier ground he did win at York at the Ebor meeting last season on genuine good to firm so maybe as he’s got older he acts on any terrain. He looks a solid bet here. KINROSS 1 point win @ 3/1 William Hill Goodwood 3.35 Just seven stayers run in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup run over a trip of two miles. Aidan O’Brien’s stout stayer Kyprios beat Stradivarius in this race two years ago and has come back as good as ever this season in winning all three of his starts most notably the Ascot Gold Cup over half a mile further with Sweet William (3rd), Coltrane (5th) and Gregory (7th) behind and looking held. With drying ground looking to be against the two mudlarks Trueshan and Tashkhan this looks Kyprios’s to lose and he’s a confident selection although too short to back on his own.
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Racing Chat - Saturday 27th July
The Brigadier replied to richard-westwood's topic in At The Races - Racing Forum
Ascot 1.50 The first of seven races brought to us by our friends at ITV is this 6F Group 3 Sodexo Live! Princess Margaret Stakes for two year old fillies and represents the best bet of those seven in the shape of the Ollie Sangster trained Simmering. She went off favourite on her racecourse debut when finishing third in a York novices stakes that has worked out well prior to a terrific effort when beating all bar the fast finishing Aidan O’Brien winner Fairy Godmother, going down by just half a length, in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and looks poised to go one better today with Ryan Moore in the saddle. The form of the that race has worked out very well since with the 3rd and 4th finishing 2nd and 3rd in a Group 2 since with the 5th placing in two Group races and the 6th also winning. The form of last time out winners Definitive, Handcuffed and Alice Fairfax hasn’t worked out well although they can only beat what’s put in front of them so maybe Mandurah is the one to chase home Shimmering who is a strong fancy. SHIMMERING 2 points win @ 2/1 BetVictor York 2.05 The first of three races from the Knavesmire televised by the ITV cameras is this 5F “jump jockey’s Nunthorpe” run over 5F in which the horses are to be ridden by jump jockeys. To be honest the race itself wouldn’t be out of place at Catterick on a weekday but there’s always a winner to be found and in Soul Seeker I may have found him. Trained by the very much in form David O’Meara and ridden by Michael Nolan the horse has won this race in 2021 and 2023, latterly under today’s pilot. He’s 2lb higher than his mark last year but 7lb lower than when winning at Haydock later that season. He’s not shown much in six starts this season but you get the impression he may well have been trained for this and he looks a value small stakes bet. SOUL SEEKER 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet465 1/5th 12345 Ascot 2.25 The Group 3 Longines Valiant Stakes is a Group 3 race for fillies and mares and has attracted a field of eight. The elders beat the three year olds last year but the three representatives of the classic generation appeal most this year. The pick is the Charlie Appleby trained Devoted Queen who is unbeaten in three starts and missed Royal Ascot with a knock on the morning of the race. She was last seen winning at York in listed company in May beating subsequent listed winner Spiritual by two lengths with another listed winner Bright Thunder back in fourth. Official ratings have her 5lb off of the three highest rated in Sirona, Friendly Soul and Soprano but she’s done little wrong in her short career and with the stable in good form and William Buick in the saddle can take this before stepping up in class. DEVOTED QUEEN 1 Pont win @ 11/4 bet365 York 2.40 Fourteen sprint handicappers enter the stalls for this class 2 Skybet Dash Handicap run over 6F. A case can be made for quite a few here with Charlie Hills’s treble seeking Trefor looking the right favourite even if he does looks short enough. Better value may lie with the Karl Burke trained, Clifford Lee ridden five year old Silkie Wilkie who can race off of his last winning mark and looking last time out as though he was nearing his peak. It was a better race than this at Hamilton last week in which he was run down later by the ultra consistent Jordan Electrics and if in the same mood can run a big race for a combination that struck at Naas in the week in listed company with Miss Lamai. SILKIE WILKIE 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 Ascot 3.00 The big handicap of the day is the eighteen runner (which is a bit disappointing as the maximum amount of runners was 29) 7F Moët & Chandon International Stakes Handicap. Last years race (and the Buckingham Palace Stakes run over course and distance last month) showed a marked advantage to be drawn towards the stands side and high numbers so we’ll concentrate on them and go with Michael Appleby’s Billyjo who had a few of these behind when runner up to the handicap snip English Oak at Royal Ascot in the Buckingham Palace Stakes. That was the four year old grey’s first run at 7F which obviously suited and he looks the value here especially when you consider he finished a length ahead of the current favourite Carrytheone and although 2lb worse off can confirm the form from what may turn out to be a favourable draw exiting from stall 15 under Rossa Ryan. Plenty of others have chances including the aforementioned Carrytheone and Bunbury Cup winner Aalto who is also potentially well berthed in stall 14. BILLYJO 1 point each way @ 15/2 bet365 1/5th 12345 York 3.15 Just a small field but a very intriguing one of five runners assemble for the Group 2 1M 2F 56 yards Sky Bet York Stakes. With Royal Rhyme seemingly preferring softer ground and Ancient Rome having a bit to find this may only concern the three at the head of the market. Current favourite Passenger, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, impressed at Chester on his re-appearance when defeating subsequent Royal Ascot winner Israr in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes but picks up a 3lb penalty for that victory here. Last year’s winner, the Owen Burrows trained Alflaila must go close as he’s the best in here at these weights by 4lb and was hardly disgraced when fourth on his re-appearance to Auguste Rodin in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, only beaten 3 3/4L. Conditions look ideal here and he’s the selection with Harry Charlton’s King’s Gambit, an unlucky loser of the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes looking a bigger threat than Passenger to my eyes. ALFLAILA 1 point win @ 9/4 bet365 Ascot 3.40 The day’s feature race is the Group 1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes run over 1M 4F. The warm favourite is the Aidan O’Brien trained Auguste Rodin who took the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot last time although it would be quite easy to crab that form as Inspiral may not have stayed and there were many excuses for others. He went off a warm 9/4 favourite in this race last year having previously won the English and Irish Derbies but bombed out when finishing last of the ten beaten 127 lengths. He may well win this but theres too many questions to answer so at the odds he’s poor value. Bluestocking is an improver but she needs the ground to ease which looks highly unlikely and the one to be with looks to be the Charlie Appleby trained Rebel’s Romance. Rated the same as Auguste Rodin but four times the price, he’s a multiple group winner abroad having won at Doha, Meydan and Sha Tin this year in the best grade and with William Buick on board he looks the value bet. REBELS ROMANCE 1 point each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 123 -
Racing chat -saturday 20th July
The Brigadier replied to richard-westwood's topic in At The Races - Racing Forum
Newbury 1.50 The first of seven races covered by ITV on a day lacking too much quality is this listed 1M 2F Steventon Stakes which has attracted a small field of just five. Owners Shadwell have a brace of runners including last year’s winner Al Aasy who is three from four at the track but we havn’t seen him for 287 days with Phantom Flight also heading here following a long break. Shadwell’s retained jockey Jim Crowley has presumably opted to ride the Owen Burrows three year old Alyanaabi who has finished a credible fifth in the Group one’s 2000 Guineas and the St James Palace Stakes this season and this is a drop in grade for the colt. He will be hard to beat even if he has been well found in the market. ALYANAABI 2 points win @ 4/5 William Hill Market Rasen 2.05 The first of three tricky handicaps shown by ITV from Market Rasen is this 2M 4 1/2F class 3 handicap hurdle which has a wide open look about it. Jonjo & Anthony O’Neill’s top weight Pyffo is chasing a hat trick so would have to be on the short list along with the already supported Flying Fortune from the very much in form Peter & Michael Bowen stable. One horse that does look over priced and is worthy of a small stakes each way bet is Alex Hales’s ten year old Breaking Waves. He’s not been the most consistent or genuine horses over the years but did nothing wrong when running out a 8L winner at Uttoxeter three weeks ago when seemingly unfancied at 28/1. He had the Skelton horse Clararose the best part of 12L behind him that day and despite now 8lb wrong with that horse at the weights can conform the form with a horse that is priced up considerably shorter. BREAKING WAVES 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 Newbury 2.25 A field of ten run in this class 2 handicap over a trip of two miles and half a furlong. Hughie Morrison has been amongst the winners recently and saddles his Kyle Of Lochalsh with Hollie Doyle in the saddle. An easy winner in the mud at Salisbury on his penultimate run he proved at Royal Ascot that he can go on any terrain when running a fine third to Pledgeofallegiance in the Ascot Stakes Handicap on good to firm ground. He holds Temporize who was 5L behind that day and looks the one to be on in this trappy looking handicap in which bottom weight and recent Ascot winner Dancing In Paris looks a danger. KYLE OF LOCHALSH 1 point win @ 9/2 BetVictor Market Rasen 2.40 A maximum field of seventeen have declared for the £60,000 guaranteed Summer Handicap Hurdle run over 2M 125 yards. The race has a wide open look about it with many holding claims including Kerry Lee’s Black Poppy who we haven’t seen since last Boxing Day and David Pipe’s Manuelito towards the foot of the handicap but the selection is the Dan Skelton trained Mostly Sunny who has only had the four runs over timber so may have some more improvement to come. He’ll have to turn around his latest form when running second to the re-opposing Maxcel of Mel Rowley’s. Only a nose separated the pair at Uttoxeter three weeks ago and with a one pound turnaround in the weights may be able to gain his revenge in this valuable race. MOSTLY SUNNY 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 Newbury 3.00 The Group 3 Hackwood Stakes has attracted ten runners this year running over a distance of 6F. A case can be made for several including three year old’s Karl Burke trained Elite Status and William Haggas’s Lake Forest but its the ultra consistent six year old Regional that is the pick. Trained by Ed Bethell he’s finished runner up in a Group 2 and Group 1 this season with his latest one length second to the Aussie sprinter Asfoora in KIng Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot a career best. That was over 5F but he wont mind stepping up a furlong here and with the ground drying all the time another big run is expected. REGIONAL 1 point win @ 11/4 BetVictor Market Rasen 3.15 Another maximum field of sixteen for the feature race of the afternoon at Market Rasen in the £100,000 guaranteed Summer Plate Handicap Chase run over 2M 5 1/2F. Like the previous two handicaps televised by ITV on the card the race has a wide open look about it. It may be worth chancing Peter & Michael Bowen’s old timer Francky Du Berlais who has an excellent record in this very race having won it in 2021 and 2022 on good ground but flopping last year when the rain scuppered his changes with the ground turning soft. He’s now racing off of a mark of 131 which is 8lb and 6lb lower than his two wins in this race so is without doubt well handicapped. He’s run third in handicap chases at Perth and Cartmel this season to prove his well being and although he’s not won since the victory in this race back in 2022 can run well each way under trainer’s son James Bowen. FRANCKY DU BERLAIS 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 Newbury 3.35 A decent sized field of nineteen run in the Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes run over the minimum trip of 5F. The best in at the weights here is actually Karl Burke’s Kaatibb who should run well along with Hugo Palmer’s It Ain’t Two under Oisin Murphy. Only two of the field have future group entries and I’ll chance the Group 2 Lowther Stakes entry Time For Sandals trained by the very much in form Harry Eustace at Newmarket. She made a winning racecourse debut at Kempton as a 10/1 chance last month beating a well bred and touted Andrew Balding favourite and having been sold for only 35,000 euros gets in here with a nice weight. She’s the each way pick although it may also be worth a small stakes each way saver on the other future group entered Caburn. Trained by Jack Jones he made a winning racecourse debut when beating the subsequent easy winner Brighton Boy at Salisbury last month and has since been given an entry in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes at York. TIME FOR SANDALS 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 CABURN 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234 -
Thank you so much for all your votes. And the results are in ........ Punters Lounge finished 8th in the Best Betting Website with 4.58% of the vote. The winner was GeeGeez with 23.54%. The Brigadier finished 9th in the Best Free Tipster with 4.67% of the vote. The winner was Betfair's Daryl Carter with 17.79%. Respectable scores I thought for both. Thanks again.
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Racing chat -saturday 13th July
The Brigadier replied to richard-westwood's topic in At The Races - Racing Forum
Ascot 1.45 A bumper afternoon’s racing with ITV showing eleven races from Super Saturday. The first of two from Ascot is the class 2 5F handicap featuring nineteen speedy sorts. Many can be given chances but it’s the Stuart Williams trained Existent who gets my pick. He ran fifth in this race last year and can race here today off of a handicap mark 14lb lower than then. He probably needed his run at Sandown last week when only a half a length runner up to Tees Spirit and with that run hopefully bringing him forward looks the value each way play. EXISTENT 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 York 2.00 The first of four races covered by ITV at York is a sixteen runner 1M class 2 handicap in which the favourite Elnajmm from the in form William Haggas Newmarket looks to have a big chance despite a more than ideal draw of fourteen. He looked a horse way ahead of his mark when winning at Newcastle following a 317 day absence last month and despite a 10lb rise could feasibly still be well handicapped. At a bigger price though and the value each way play with additional places is David O’Meara’s Blue For You who romped home by 3L in this race last year and returns this year a full stone lower in the weights having prepped for this , like last year, by running down the field in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot. Danny Tudhope takes the ride. BLUE FOR YOU 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345 Newmarket 2.12 The first of five races covered by the ITV races from the head quarters of British racing is the class 2 three year old 7F handicap fillies handicap. Karl Burke’s lightly raced Zoustar filly Miss Bodacious made quite an impression on her handicap debut here on the July course when winning a 6F race by 2 1/2L last month and despite a hefty 9lb rise can score again with the step up to 7F looking to unlock even more improvement getting weight from all of her rivals. Betfred are paying 4 places so if able take your business to Fred. MISS BODACIOUS 1 point each way @ 9/2 Betfred 1/5th 1234 Ascot 2.20 Nine runners run in this Group 2 Anne Cowley Memorial Summer Mile Stakes run over the one mile of the round course. Simon & Ed Crisford’s Quddwah has done little wrong in winning all three of his starts, two as a three year old and a listed race on the straight course here in May. The two horses he beat into second and third that day in Docklands and Maljoom went onto fill the same positions in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at the Royal meeting behind top miler Charyn to boost the form and he could be anything. He can keep his unbeaten run going with Ralph Beckett’s Sonny Liston his biggest threat. QUDDWAH 1 point win @ 2/1 bet365 York 2.35 Next up is the 5F listed John Smith’s City Walls Stakes run over the minimum trip of 5F in which we have nine running. Clarendon House has to carry a 3lb penalty here and the bet may be the Tom Clover trained, Wathnan Racing owned Rogue Lightning. Forget his last run in the Group 1 King Charles III Stakes at Ascot as he reared leaving the stalls. He is a speedy gelding who is the second best in here on official ratings (to Starlust) and looks sure to run a big race. ROGUE LIGHTNING 1 point win @ 5/1 Ladbrokes Newmarket 2.50 An intriguing sixteen runner three year old class 2 handicap is up next run over a mile. Four of these ran in the Brittannia Handicap at Royal Ascot last month with Qirat faring the best in sixth place although the best of that quartet may actually be Kevin Ryan’s Volterra who finished eleventh but ‘won’ his side of the draw. I expect him to run well but the pick may turn out to be Andrew Balding’s Celtic Warrior who will appreciate the drying conditions. The soft ground may have been against him on his penultimate run and his latest 1/2L second at Goodwood has been boosted by the three that have subsequently run from the race, the 3rd, 4th and 6th, all winning since. Just 2lb higher than that run he looks decent each way value. CELTIC WARRIOR 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 York 3.10 The feature race of the day at York is the John Smith’s Cup Handicap run over 1M 2 1/2F and has attracted a maximum field of twenty two. Roger Varian’s Botanical looked better than a handicapper when bolting up over course and distance on his re-appearance in May but bombed out on a faster surface in the listed Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot finishing plum last. As long as there’s sufficient dig in the ground expect a much better run here. Liberty Lane and last year’s third Haunted Dream both have chances on the book but have to contend with wide draws in stalls 23 and 24 respectively. Botancial is in stall six and with P J McDonald on top should run a big race. BOTANICAL 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123456 Newmarket 3.25 Nine have declared for the Group 2 Superlative Stakes run over 7F for two year olds. The two principals are the Charlie Appleby trained Ancient Truth who’s unbeaten in two victories here, once at the Rowley course and over course and distance last month and the Royal Ascot Coventry Stakes third Columnist trained by Richard Fahey and owned by Wathnan Racing. Slight preference is for the former who will be ridden by William Buick and can give Appleby their fifth victory in the race in the last nine years. ANCIENT TRUTH 1 point win 13/8 BetVictor York 3.45 A field of eight assemble for this Group 3 John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes run over 1M 6F. Theres only 9lb between the field on official ratings with William Haggas’s Klondike the selection. He short headed the re-opposing Salt Bay over course and distance four weeks ago and can confirm that form and complete a course double with Richard Kingscote taking over from Ryan Moore. Andrew Balding’s Alsakib ran well at Ascot and is the one I fear the most. KLONDIKE 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor Newmarket 4.00 A maximum sized field of twenty run in the class 2 bet365 Bunbury Cup run over 7F. As always the race has a very open look about it with many holding decent shouts. Amongst them would be Ryan Moore’s mount Carrytheone and the William Buick ridden Divine Libra. There may be some each way value though in the shape of the David O’Meara trained six year old Darkness. He bounced back to form over course and distance 16 days ago when sprinting clear to win by 3L making it two from two at the July course. A 6lb penalty here won’t make things easy for the gelding but he clearly enjoys the uphill finish here and looks good each way value with additional places in an open handicap. DARKNESS 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 Newmarket 4.35 A quality field of twelve run in the Group 1 My Pension Expert July Cup Stakes run over 6F which features four three year olds taking on their elders. It may well be the Classic generation in which we will find the winner with last year’s smart juvenile Vandeek likely to get closer than he did to the favourite Inisherin at Haydock on his re-appearance (he has 4L to make up). The one they all have to beat though is surely the aforementioned Inisherin who hasn’t looked back since dropping in trip having failed to stay when sixth in the 2000 Guineas in winning Group races at Haydock and Ascot (Group 1 Commonwealth Cup) over 6F. As long as he handles the track he should be able to confirm the form with Vandeek and beat his elders. The best of whom may turn out to Kinross who will appreciate getting his toe in. INISHERRIN 1 point win @ 11/4 William Hill. -
Newmarket 1.50 Ten run in this £100,000 guaranteed class 2 heritage handicap for three year olds. The Johnston stable have an excellent record in the race over the years and their representative Candle Of Dubai has to be respected for that reason alone. The pick though has to be the Aidan O’Brien trained Chantilly who followed up an excellent third in the London Cup with a possible non staying eighth over a two furlong further trip at Royal Ascot in the King George V Handicap. Dropped in trip and on ground that should suit a lot better than at Ascot, Ryan Moore’s mount looks a solid each way bet. Charlie Appleby saddles a brace of runners in Royal Power and Endless Victory who are both making their handicap debuts with William Buick apparently choosing the former. They’ll be worth watching in the market but it has to be Chantilly for me especially if able to play with Betfred who are the only firm paying four places. CHANTILLY 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 123 York 2.05 The first of two races covered by the ITV cameras at York is this eighteen runner 7F class 3 handicap. The race has a wide open look about with Brian Ellison’s Tolstoy coming here chasing a course and distance hat trick. He beat the re-opposing Quest For Fame by half a length last time on similar ground conditions and maybe the runner up that day has the better credentials today. Trained by Tim Easterby the six year old is now 5lb better off with his rival for that half a length beating and that should be more than enough to turn the tables and give the gelding every chance of going very close. He’s only 2lb higher than his last win which came at Catterick (heavy) last October by 5L and will have the assistance of David Allan here. QUEST FOR FAME 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345 Newmarket 2.25 Eleven speedy female juveniles have declared for the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes run over 6F. There’s very little easy ground form to hand with arguably the best piece of form coming from the Aidan O’Brien trained Churchill filly Heavens Gate. She followed up a cosy Curragh maiden victory in May by chasing home her impressive stable mate Fairy Godmother in the Albany Stakes into third place (beaten a length) at Royal Ascot. She had the Godolphin runner Mountain Breeze just under 4L behind that day so holds her and she looks sure to run a big race with Queen Mary runner up Mighty Eriu who’s stepping up in distance another possible threat. HEAVENS GATE 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365 York 2.40 The feature race of the day at York and the second of two races covered by terrestrial television is the William Hill Summer Stakes, a Group 3 contest for fillies and mares. The highest rated of the dozen runners is William Haggas’s Wokingham Handicap winner Unequal Love and she looks the one to be with. Ridden by Tom Marquand she won the big Ascot handicap under 9-7 by half a length and has form on both fast and easy ground. A winner of six of her ten career starts she looks sure to be involved in the finish. Owen Burrows’s Raqiya is an interesting runner but is best on a fast surface it seems whilst Rod Millman’s stable flag bearer Adaay In Devon steps up in trip again and can be competitive especially if there is dig in the ground. The one to be with however is Unequal Love. UNEQUAL LOVE 1 point win @ 9/4 BetVictor Newmarket 3.00 A dozen go to post for this £100,000 guaranteed class 2 heritage handicap run over 1M 6F. It doesn’t look the strongest of handicaps for the money and the two that catch my eye both ran at Royal Ascot in the Copper Horse Handicap. Sir Michael Stoute’s Fox Journey never got into the race and I’m sure is a lot better than that run showed beating only two of the sixteen home that day. 2 1/4L ahead of him was today’s top weight Beamish who was having only his second start for Archie Watson having previously been trained in Ireland by Paddy Twomey. He’s better on softer ground than the good to firm he ran on at Ascot and wasn’t disgraced in finishing a 6L eleventh. Dropped 2lb he looks a value each way play in a competitive handicap with James Doyle a positive jockey booking. BEAMISH 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 Newmarket 3.35 Just seven have declared for the feature race of day two of the July meeting the Tattersalls Falmouth Sakes, a Group one contest for fillies and mares. The warm favourite is the Donnacha O’Brien trained Porta Fortuna who has been super consistent throughout her career having followed up a second in the 1000 Guineas by defeating the well fancied Opera Singer in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. She did win on her debut on heavy ground but is supposedly best on fast ground so the drier the ground gets the better her chance. She’s short enough with easy ground against I’m happy enough to take her on with Paddy Twomey’s A Lilac Rolla who will love any cut in the ground. She followed up a heavy ground Group 3 win at Leopardstown in April by finishing runner up to Fallen Angel in the Irish 1000 Guineas the following month. That form is comparable to Porta Fortuna and the three year olds may fight this out with preference for A Lilac Rolla who may well cope with conditions better. A LILAC ROLLA 1 point win @ 9/2 William Hill
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Racing chat -thurs 11th July
The Brigadier replied to richard-westwood's topic in At The Races - Racing Forum
Woodhay Wonder NR