Gary66

Plumette 

On a day when I don’t have to take the grandkids the football, I’ll have an AW lucky 15 ew
2-35 alligator alley 15/2
3-10 dayzee 16/1
4-25 Plumstead 9/1
3-45 smith 12/1
good luck all

Lydia richards is two from two at lingfield  this year and sends smith in the 15 -45  the horse is below his last winning mark and usually in good form at this time of year 25/1 Betfair seems value

Hi everyone, just wanted to say a quick hello. Hoping to find the punters lounge forum a good place to share tennis picks

Lydia richards is two from two at lingfield  this year and sends smith in the 15 -45  the horse is below his last winning mark and usually in good form at this time of year 25/1 Betfair seems value

Lydia richards is two from two at lingfield  this year and sends smith in the 15 -45  the horse is below his last winning mark and usually in good form at this time of year 25/1 Betfair seems value

With Navan having to pass an early morning inspection I've concentrated on a decent enough card at Lingfield with four of the contests aired by ITV.    Lingfield 12.15 Came late and fast to win over course and distance last time out on New Years Eve under Jack Mitchell to follow up his Southwell victory from 9 days earlier. Mark Rimell’s six year old is in the best form of his life and with just a 2lb rise to contend with can get the the hat trick up with Rob Hornby taking over in the saddle.   THAPA VC 1 point each way @ 7/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Lingfield 12.50 Ryan Moore makes his first appearance on these shores in 2024 with four rides at the Sussex track and can score on the second of them on Andrew Balding’s Juddmonte owned three year old Dark Angel colt Fire Demon. He’s making his handicap debut off of what appears to be a fair mark of 83 having made all to win a 6F Kempton maiden a fortnight ago. That form has yet to be tested but he has more scope than his seven rivals in this class 4 6F handicap and looks a good bet.   FIRE DEMON 2 points win @ 2/1 William Hill   Lingfield 1.25 An open looking 12F class 4 handicap which has attracted a maximum field of twelve. Roger Varian’s Amazing looks likely to be thereabouts but has to overcome the widest draw and preference is for the Stan Moore trained Raintown who can be backed each way. He’s two from three at the track and appeared to be coming back to form last time when runner up in a Wolverhampton handicap over today’s trip. David Probert looks a positive jockey booking and he can run a big race.   RAINTOWN 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Lingfield 2.00 A valuable class 3 1M handicap has again attracted a maximum field of twelve with the weights headed by a very interesting runner in the shape of the Roger Varian trained Dragon Icon who’s making his handicap debut in a first time hood having last been seen finishing a disappointing fifth in the German 2000 Guineas. He’s one to watch closely in the market. The bet however is the Richard Hannon trained Talis Evolvere. He’s shown consistent form on the all-weather and although he’s yet to race here theres no real reason why he won’t take to the surface. Raised 2lb for his latest success at Kempton he has the services of Ryan Moore which is obviously a big bonus.   TALIS EVOLVERE 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365   Lingfield 2.35 There’s £50,000 up for grabs in this 5F class 2 handicap which has attracted a maximum field of ten. Kevin Ryan’s Bergerac comes here chasing a hat trick and looks a player but it’s Mick Appleby’s Bedford Flyer that makes most appeal. He’s won four of his twelve starts on the all-weather and bumped into one last time when running the revitalised Clarendon House to 2 1/2L at Southwell in a race where the course record was broken. An easy course and distance winner in November he can run a big race under Lewis Edmunds who knows him so well.   BEDFORD FLYER 1 point each way @ 13/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Lingfield 3.10 The feature race of the days racing at Lingfield is the BetMGM Winter Oaks Fillies’ Handicap over 1M 2F with a field of only eight. Simon and Ed Crisford took this last year with Al Agaila and can repeat the feat with their top weight here Oh So Grand. She won the trial for this contest 45 days ago by 1 1/4L from the re-opposing Queen Regent who is 4lb better off. I confidently expect Oh So Grand to confirm that form as he had the worst of the trip around the outside whilst Queen Regent saved ground sticking to the rail. The Crisfords also have Twirling here who will be ridden by Ryan Moore who hopefully can set the pace for her stable mate to attack at in the short straight under Jack Mitchell.   OH SO GRAND 2 points win @ 9/4 Unibet   Lingfield 3.45 A two mile class 5 handicap which has an open look about it although Rossa Ryan’s mount Two Past Eight appeals as one that will appreciate stepping up to this trip following a third at Wolverhampton in November over 1M 6F. Alan King’s dual purpose four year old has yet to taste success on the flat but today may well be his day in an eminently winnable race.   TWO PAST EIGHT 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365      

The ITV cameras are bringing us four races from Dunstall Park on Friday and here are my early thoughts :-   Wolverhampton 1.40 Landed a gamble on his stable/all-weather debut over course and distance just after Christmas having been backed from 16/1 into 9/2 for trainer Ralph Smith when bolting up by 6L. The handicapper has responded by sticking him up 10lb but there may be more to come from this ex Fergal O’Brien trained hurdler who was runner up to Luccia in a listed novice hurdle over hurdles.   PALACE BOY 1 point each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Wolverhampton 2.15 Newmarket handler Roger Varian has his string in fine shape and appears to hold a decent chance of taking this class 4 7F 0-85 handicap with his lightly raced four year old Al Farabi. He made a pleasing handicap debut when beaten a length by Swiss Ace (run well in defeat since)at Newcastle just after Christmas and with just a 2lb rise to contend with should be thereabouts with Jack Mitchell in the saddle.   AL FARABI 2 points win @ 11/4 bet365   Wolverhampton 2.50 Mark Usher has been in good form this year and runs a brace of runners here in Sea The Buckhorn and Outreach who both have chances. Slight preference though is for the latter who finally broke his duck at the thirteenth time of asking over course and distance on Boxing Day under today’s pilot George Bass who is good value for his 3lb claim. A 2lb rise in the weights may not stop him from following up in a race where a careful eye must be kept on the top weight Kraken Diamond who has joined rookie trained Brian Twomey from John C McConnell in Ireland   OUTREACH 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365   Wolverhampton 3.25 James Fanshawe hasn’t had a winner for 42 days but has been knocking on the door in the past fortnight with four of his five runners all hitting the frame. He can take this 9 1/2F class 5 0-68 with his four year old daughter of Cracksman who’s only win came over course and distance last October off of a handicap mark 3lb lower than today’s. Back here she can score again and give Fanshawe his first winner of 2024.   FAST AFFAIR 1 point win @ 11/4 bet365

If you don’t already know adrianmassey.com is a great site to use for trainer jockey and course stats really useful

If you don’t already know adrianmassey.com is a great site to use for trainer jockey and course stats really useful

Brian Hughes is generally overbet with an AE of 0.94 over the last 8 years. Last year was 0.86 so I would stay well clear of him. AE for hurdles is 0.93. He has a good record at Sedgefield with 92 wins from 387 runs with a profit of 65 points and an AE of 1.07. His AE for favourites is 0.88. AE for handicaps is 0.89. He has a decent record with inexperienced horses (1-3 runs) with 99 wins from 395 runs. Profit is 33 points, AE is 1.15.

Port Vale (at Reading) was abandoned so winning double on other 2 games

Port vale 3.25
crewe 1.85
stoke 1.91
 

Wetherby 1.10 With the late defection of the Willie Mullins runner Meetingofthewaters only five go to post for this 2m 3M 85 yards William Hill Towton Novices’ Chase. The one to beat is surely Jamie Snowden’s Colonel Harry who followed up a winning chase debut in a three runner handicap at Chepstow by finishing runner up in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown to Le Patron. That may not of been the strongest renewal of that contest but he should be up to winning this as the highest rated horse in the field.   COLONEL HARRY 1 point win @ Evens bet365   Kempton 1.30 The 3M Bet-In-Race With Coral Handicap Chase has attracted seven staying chasers and with the ground maybe drying too much for top weight Chianti Classico may go to the Dan Skelton trained Flegmatik. The nine year old seems suited by this flat course with track figures of 31102 here with the second coming over this trip in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase last February when going down by a neck to Our power. Only rated 2lb higher now and having run well in decent handicaps this season at Ascot he looks the one to be with with 3lb claiming conditional Tristan Durrell taking over today as usual partner Harry Skeleton is riding at Warwick.   FLEGMATIK 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365   Warwick 1.49 The first of four races covered by ITV Racing today is this 3M 1F Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle qualifier which has attracted eight runners. Melanie Rowley is in great form currently and is fresh from a double at Doncaster on Wednesday and has a good chance of taking this with her Kyntara who is unbeaten in to starts since re-joining the Shropshire based handler with victories at Lingfield and Aintree rising 11lb in the handicap. The eight year old gelding is still 5lb lower than his highest ever mark and with his regular pilot Charlie Deutsch here to ride can take this from the Irish novice Mel Munro who is making her handicap debut now stepping up in distance which should suit.   KYNTARA 1 point win @ 11/4 bet365   Kempton 2.07 A small but classy field of five line up for this 2M 4F 110 yard Grade 2 Coral Silviniaco Conti Chase. Best in at the weights is Edwardstone who’s stepping up in trip here and can run well but it’s Paul Nicholls’s consistent Pic D’Orhy that appeals the most. A winner of five of his last six stats he’s never really been given the full credit for his success’s but took this race apart last season when scooting home 16L to the good although today’s renewal does look significantly tougher. Irish raider Banbridge was a top novice chaser last season and is another with claims as is Paddy Power Handicap Chase runner up Notlongtillmay. It’ll take a good performance to win this but its Pic D’Orhy for me who is two from two at the track.   PIC D’ORHY 1 point win @ 11/4 William Hill   Warwick 2.24 A small but select turnout of five novices for this Grade 2 Trustatrader Hampton Novices’ Chase run over a trip of 3M. The winner is likely to come from one of the front three in the betting, Lucinda Russell’s mare Apple Away, Dan Skelton’s doughty stayer Grey Dawning and Nigel Twiston-Davies’s improver Broadway Boy. Slight preference, in a tight heat, is for the latter who despite having to carry a 5lb penalty here for a 20L victory in a listed novices chase at Cheltenham in November, is the highest officially rated. He’s looked a staying chaser going places this season following up that listed win with a win in handicap company against a field of experienced chasers and looks the one to be with.   BROADWAY BOY 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365   Kempton 2.42 An ultra competitive renewal of the Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle run over 2M 5F with a near maximum field of nineteen declared. Paul Nicholls’s joint top weight Sonigino should be thereabouts despite a 6lb rise for his comfortable Aintree victory whilst Kerry Lee’s Nemean Lion is another who can be in the mix but it’s the Nicky Henderson trained Impose Toi who appeals the most. JP McManus’s six year old has won five of his 8 career starts and finished runner up on the other three. He probably would of beaten stable mate Luccia in the big Ascot handicap hurdle at their Christmas meeting last time out but for making mistakes at the last two hurdles, going down by just a neck at the line. A 3lb rise for that excellent effort seems more than fair and with the extra 5F likely to be no issue as he’s already won over that trip, all be it at 1/5 in a four runner novice hurdle last May, he can go one better than Ascot with James Bowen replacing the injured Nico De Boinville.   IMPOSE TOI 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill   Warwick 3.00 The feature race of the day at Warwick is the Wigley Classic Handicap Chase run over a distance of 3M 5F with a decent sized field of fourteen going to post. A case can be made for plenty although I do keep coming back to the Irish top weight Malina Girl who looked way ahead of her mark when blitzing her field at Cheltenham in November under similar conditions, coming home a comfortable 10L to the good. She was going easily when coming down three from home at the same course the following month in a race won by Broadway Boy and off of a mark 11lb higher than her win could still be well treated especially wit the capable conditional jockey Conor Stone-Walsh taking 5lb off the mares back. This will take some getting on soft ground and it maybe worth a small each way saver on bottom weight Volcano who’s shown nothing so far this season including in two cross country races when 16lb wrong at the weights (came back with post race ataxia last time which is when a horse becomes unsteady on his feet due to a rise in body exercise after exercise). He does however have a record here of five wins from just six starts with the only defeat coming in this contest last year when 5th from a 5lb higher mark.   MALINA GIRL 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365 VOLCANO 1/2 point each way @ 25/1 888sport 1/5th 12345   Warwick 3.35 The re-scheduled Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase run over a distance of 3M is a real bonus for us race fans and with seventeen declared looks to be some race. My fancy from last week Ramses De Teillee is still the one to be with with the switch in tracks from Sandown to Warwick certainly not a negative as he won first time out here last season readily by just under ten lengths prior to a highly creditable runner up in this race (when held at Sandown) off of a handicap mark 4lb higher. A wind operation is anther bonus as he’s won twice easily following previous wind operations with the stable also striking twice in the last week also in his favour. A lot of positives and with luck in running the strapping grey looks sure to go well and looks a good each way bet.   RAMSES DE TEILLEE 1 1/2 points each way @ 8/1 888sport 1/5th 12345  

Another place for @Gary66, 14/1 3rd Honour Your Dreams at Newcastle

3.55 Plu Alto Alto ew at 14/1 with Bet365

Just been though the card and could not agree more both could very well out run there odds 

Just been though the card and could not agree more both could very well out run there odds 

Just been though the card and could not agree more both could very well out run there odds 

Top trainer at Plumpton is T.C Gordon, he has 4 runners which I  have selected for a Lucky 15
 

W.Mullins may as well spend the day in the ' winners enclosure ' at Naas today as I think he'll be in there a fair bit , he's 5 from 13 there already this season . he was the only winning trainer after abandonment albeit 9/1 shot upset the odds on favourite .
He has 5 runners of the 8 in the 2.00 Grade 1 Novice , MYSTICAL POWER 8/1 eway Betvictor interests me , is 2 from 2 , Galileo / Annie Power , that's some good breeding .
Venetia Williams could have a decent show from her runners at Plumpton today .
She didn't fancy OXYGEN carrying bottom weight to beat AUTHORISED SPEED in the 1.15 but could be the 2 in the places ha ha , finished last & 2nd last 😂
, in the 2.15 RAMO 7/2 Betvictor 2nd 85/40  looks the one to be on & in the Sussex National ECEPARTI 11/1eway bet365 ( 4 places ) 👎 has won over 26f , is carrying a low weight has decent place claims if handles the extra 2f .
There's night racing at Wolves 😱 weird .
My Daily Nap THIRTYFOURSTITCHES 👎runs in 6.00 & if P.Evans LIHOU 👎 7.00 race with H.Doyle on wasn't drawn in stall 10 over the 5f trip I may have & still might be tempted .
 

8-15 kempton the bay warrior 14/1 365 win only

8-15 kempton the bay warrior 14/1 365 win only