Jake Cohen

Goodwood 1.50 Day two of the Goodwood Festival kicks off with a class 2 12F three year old handicap. I don’t like tipping favourites but sometimes they just stand out and although only one favourite has obliged in the last ten years in this race I can’t get away from Charlie Appleby’s top weight Secret State. A winner of his last three starts having started his career with a second spot in the Wood Ditton behind the smart Francesco Clemente with his latest victory coming in the King George V Stakes Handicap at Royal Ascot from the subsequent group 3 winner Deauville Legend. 2 1/2L back in 6th that day was Andrew Balding’s Teumessias Fox whilst George Baker’s Surrey Mist was just behind and the Haggas runner Mandobi was a further 5 1/2L further back. That trio re-oppose on 4lb, 7lb and 8lb better terms respectively but I fully expect William Buick’s mount to confirm the form and enhance his St Leger claims for which he’s currently only a 14/1 chance. Surrey Mist may actually come out the best of the three behind him that day and chase him home.   SECRET STATE 3 points win @ 9/4 bet365   Goodwood 2.25 A bumper field of seventeen assemble for the group 3 Oak Tree Stakes and it does have an open look about it this year. Pushing for favouritism currently is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Soft Whisper who had four of these in Bounce The Blues, Improvised, She Do and Internationalagent behind when winning at Chelmsford last time. She should confirm the form with that quartet but I don’t like his wide draw in 16 of 17 and I can pass her over. The other top rated on official ratings here is the Richard Hannon trained Heredia, a good winner of the Sandringham at Royal Ascot but a bit disappointing when very well supported in a Sandown listed contest last time. She drops a furlong today and has claims but I like Oscula who actually finished a length ahead of Heredia at Sandown and is 3lb better off at the weights today. I’m surprised she’s twice the price of the Hannon filly especially after a good effort at Ascot last Saturday behind Jumbly. The other runner I like is Ed Walker’s Primo Bacio who has ideal conditions today and wasn’t disgraced in a group one last time. I’ll dutch the pair of Oscula and Primo Bacio here who both have favourable low draws and just hope they don’t find too much trouble in running.   OSCULA 1 point win @ 11/1 William Hill PRIMO BACIO 1 point win @ 17/2 William Hill   Goodwood 3.00 Eight go to post for the group 3 Molecomb Stakes and I really can’t see past the favourite Rocket Rodney who will be very hard to beat. George Scott’s flag bearer has the best form and has shown his liking for this switchback course having won a novices stakes race over course and distance here in April prior to an excellent neck runner up in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot to Little Big Bear (impressive winner since) with Eddies Boy (winner of valuable sales race since) back in third. He stands out here and is the days best bet. David Loughnane’s Walbank looks his chief danger having finished runner up in the group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot to The Ridler. Eddies Boy is held on Ascot form by the selection and this should be a point and shoot job for Daniel Muscott.   ROCKET RODNEY 4 points win @ 5/4 William Hill   Goodwood 3.35 Only seven go to post for the group one Sussex Stakes following the eleventh hour defection of 2000 Guineas winner Coroebus and it looks a penalty kick for the smart Baaeed. William Haggas’s Shadwell Stud owned four year old is now unbeaten in eight starts and as he already holds most of these on earlier form should be winning. Last years winner Alcohol Free comes here on the back of a July Cup victory over 6F but is held by the favourite on earlier form. He’s at prohibitive odds but should be a banker for any acca bet.   Goodwood 4.10 A class 2 nine runner fillies handicap run over just short of ten furlongs is up next. William Haggas’s Sea Speedwell is making her handicap debut and under Tom Marquand appears to hold claims. Also on the short list has to be the John and Thady Gosden trained Natasha who wasn’t disgraced in a similar contest at Newmarket twelve days ago. Hughie Morrison’s Lyrical Lady ran a smashing race in listed company last time when only 6L behind the useful Grande Dame. She has paid the penalty for that mind with a rise of 11lb. A tough race but in the hope that the Gosden runner has come forward for her recent re-appearance I’m with Natasha.   NATASHA 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365   Goodwood 4.45 The ITV terrestrial coverage finishes with a ten runner two year old fillies’ conditions stakes. A warm favourite here is the Richard Fahey trained The Platinum Queen who on official ratings has plenty in hand here. A winner at Ripon on her debut in June she may have found the Queen Mary all too much a fortnight later when finishing down the field as a 66/1 shot. She bounced back however three weeks later when dominating from the gate to take a nine runner field apart at York from odds on favourite Yahsat. Oisin Orr has ridden the Cotai Glory juvenile in all three of her racecourse starts and keeps the partnership intact today and will be hard to beat. All The Time was ultra impressive on her debut when an impressive 5L winner at Nottingham but blew out in the Queen Mary (some 7L behind The Platinum Queen) finishing plum last. She’s no doubt better than that but has questions to answer now and this can go to the The Platinum Queen   THE PLATINUM QUEEN 3 points win 11/8 William Hill THE PLATINUM QUEEN / ROCKET RODNEY 2 point win double. 11/8 & 5/4 William Hill

Ascot 1.45 A big field of 17 go to post for this 1m 4F class 3 handicap which despite the numbers doesn’t look that competitive although finding the winner is not easy. Bottom weight Screaming Petra is making her handicap debut although her maiden win hasn’t really worked out. Just Hubert needs further and can’t be fancied whilst Mascat has a chance on his second run for the Tizzard’s having chased home Going Gone at Epsom in the Great Met Handicap. George Margarson has his small Newmarket team in fine shape winning with 2 of his last 3 runners and his Protected Guest can also run well following an easy win at Nottingham last time out. David Menuisier has started the new season in good form and his Flying Solo, a winner at Newbury and York last season starts his season here and if straight enough may be worth a small each way wager and is the bet for me in a tricky contest.   FLYING SOLO 1 point each way @ 6/1 Bet Victor 1/5th 12345   Lingfield 2.05 A very modest 7F class 4 handicap that has no appeal to me as a betting medium and I’m happy to skip over the race. We don’t need to bet on every race do we?   Ascot 2.20 Al Aasy is re-routed here from Chester on Friday and is officially rated 8lb and more better than this field of eight in this listed Buckhounds Stakes run over 1m 4F. He has his quirks though but first time out may be the best time to be backing him and it would be no shock were he to win this well under Dane O’Neill for William Haggas and the Shadwell Operation. Third Realm is the next best in (8lb behind Al Aasy) and if in the same sort of form that saw him defeat Derby winner Adayar in the Lingfield Derby Trial on this day last year can be competitive for team Varian. The Gosden’s saddle Stowell who ran well enough on his re-appearance when third in the Group 3 John Porter at Newbury. There will be plenty of people happy to take on Al Aasy because of his quirks but he is better than these and is a bet for me.   AL AASY 2 points win 7/4 BetVictor     Lingfield 2.40 Five have declared for the Lingfield SBK Derby Trial run over 1m 3 1/2F that last year featured the subsequent Epsom Derby winner Adayar who was runner up in this to Third Realm (re-appears today at Ascot). Charlie Appleby suffered a setback (his first this season?) when his New London was turned over at Chester in the week and saddles a brace here. Walk Of Stars looked green when battling well to beat his stable mate Hatif at Newbury three weeks ago and the boys in blue will be hopeful that he can win this and put himself in the frame for the big one. The Newbury form has taken a double blow by the 2nd and 3rd being beaten since and although he could easily win this he represents poor value at around the even money mark. His stablemate Natural World ground out a win at Newbury the day before Walk On Stars victory there although if his stable companion Ottoman Fleet had been given a better ride he surely wouldn’t have held on. He made all that day and 3/4L back in third that day was the David Menuisier trained Lionel who dwelt at the start and was finishing to some effect. At around double the price of Natural World he looks the value bet here.   LIONEL 1 point win @ 8/1 BetVictor   Haydock 3.00 We change codes now and it’s the 1m 7F 144yds Swinton Handicap Hurdle up next with a maximum field of 17 going to post. Anna Bunina did us a favour when winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle quite cosily in the end I thought by a length from one of today’s rivals in West Cork and although she’s 3lb worse off there shouldn’t be much between the pair although the better the ground the better her chance. Milkwood was back in 5th and seeming held today off of top weight. Philip Hobb’s handicap debutant Luttrell Lad is interesting under Tom O’Brien whilst Cormier and Herbiers are two others that can’t be over looked. A tough contest but I do think that there’s another big race in the Dan Skelton runner West Cork, winner of the Greatwood Hurdle back in November and on only his tenth career run may actually still have some improvement in him.   WEST CORK 2 points each way @ 11/2 BetVictor 1/5th 12345   Lingfield 3.15 The SBK Oaks Trial is run over the same trip as the Derby Trial of 1m 3 1/2F and features a healthy turnout of 9. With only 2 of the 9 holding an engagement for the Oaks next month it doesn’t look the strongest of renewals with the Aidan O’Brien runner Emily Dickinson looking the one to beat under Ryan Moore who’s been in unstoppable form this week at Chester. By Dubawi and out of an Irish Oaks winner she’s bred for the job and improved to win a 10F Naas maiden 12 days ago. She’s improving rapidly and can take this. John & Thady Gosden saddle Belt Buckle, a Wolverhampton maiden winner in February who has been given the Ribblesdale entry recently. She will need to step up from that win and is surely only as short as she is because of her connections. George Boughey already has one Classic in the bag with Cachet in the 1000 Guineas and his Mystic Wells is the highest rated here who should be thereabouts but only scraped home in a Brighton handicap last time.   EMILY DICKINSON 3 points win @ 13/8 Bet365   Ascot 3.30 A nine runner one mile fillies only class 2 handicap is up next at the Berkshire track. With the current outsider of the field only priced at around 12/1 this is an open handicap. Roger Varian sends his four year old Strawberri here with Andrea Atzeni riding. She was progressive last year and warrants plenty of respect today. Saeed Bin Suroor is very much in the shadow of his fellow Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby at the moment and saddles a brace of fillies here in top weight Soft Whisper and Stunning Beauty both of whom have been racing over in Dubai this winter. Hughie Morrison has taken charge of the ex Gosden runner Delta Bay but hasn’t been seen for over a year and is best watched in the market regarding her chances. Don’t Tell Claire hails from the Daniel and Claire Kubler Lambourn stable who struck with Outgate in the week at Chester and is another with a chance. A tough call this one but my pin has landed on Strawberri, a dual winner at three years and a horse who could possibly make a mark on pattern company this season.   STRAWBERRI 2 points win @ 4/1 Bet365   Lingfield 3.50 The 7F Chartwell Fillies Stakes is a Group 3 contest for 3 year old fillies and mares and we have a field of eight. One of two three year olds Symphony Perfect is the highest rated and has run well in defeat on both starts this season when 5th in the Greenham and runner up over a furlong shorter in a listed contest at Chelmsford. She has claims but whether she wants a step back up to 7F is debatable. Roger Varian saddles She Do not seen since winning a listed contest at Newmarket last October by a short head from the progressive Gale Force Maya and also comes into calculations. The most intriguing runner has to be the Irish raider trained by Henry De Bromhead Wren’s Breath who was a winner on only her second start in listed company at Naas last July. She flopped on her only subsequent run in the group 3 Sceptre Stakes at Doncaster last September and it will be interesting if there’s any money for her. A tough call but it’s the Varian runner She Do that will do for me.   SHE DO 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill   Ascot 4.05 The days most competitive race is the tote Victoria Cup run over the 7f of the straight track with a bumper turnout of 28 going to post. Last years winner River Nymph is back to defend his title from a 2lb higher mark but would prefer softer conditions and his jockey that day Adam Kirby appears to have jumped ship to ride the same stables Aratus. Fresh has great track form but would also prefer softer conditions and is overlooked for that reason alone. Dark Shift is my main selection here having won first time out in the last two seasons and has an impressive three wins from four starts on the straight course here. Charlie Hills has his team in good shape and looks sure to be competitive as long as stall 4 is no hinderance. There’s plenty of others with chances as you would imagine in such a tight knit race but I can’t resist a small ew bet also on the in form George Margarson runner Ropey Guest. He has a good record fresh (4th in Jersey and 6th in this contest in last two years) and has a change of jockey today as Tom Queally (who’s ridden him on 21 of his 25 starts)is replaced by John Egan for some reason (Queally is at the meeting riding for the trainer in the opener). He was only beaten 2 1/4L last year in this race and is 7lb better off with the winner River Nymph.   DARK SHIFT 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456 ROPEY GUEST 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456  

615 newc 
Outrun storm  9.9  9/1 
Burrows seaside  9.3 5.3 
Gowanlad  8.9  9/2 
Tathmeen  8.8  16.5 
Attolblair boy  8.0 
Very very difficult race ....a few unknowns but it's a good race to test the ratings to breaking point ....I'll go 1pt each and hope a biggy springs a surprise...

730 kemp 
Love dreams 9.5 8/1 
Epsom faithful  9.4 9/1 
George Morland  9.0 11/2 
Mount Mogan  8.9 16.0 betfair
Enduring   7.9  
Good humour 7.9 
Open race but only 1 of any interest on quiet day ....Will be interesting to see how it pans out .....1pt wins top 4 

Been a few tears and years since this dog and his owner died but the name lives on through this horse.Pulled up last time out but all in place for a big run here in the 1255 at Newbury.
ZANZA at 5/1 ew for at very least the frame.

AYR 2.50 ARDERA CROSS 33/1 BET365

12.25 Ascot - 1pt win Mason Jar @ 4/1 (Hills)
Horse on the up who has won easily from the front the last twice - looks on a fair enough mark given more to come and in a conditional jockeys race, looks a fairly easy ride from a prominent position - should take some passing once more.
1.35 Ascot - 1pt win Earlofthecotswolds @ 5/1 (Bet365)
Will relish the extra yardage today on his second start over fences - was running well when jumping let him down towards the end of that race - eventually coming down - but with that experience under his belt I think his form over hurdles would give him a huge chance here.
3.20 Ascot - 1pt win Vinndication @ 10/3 (Hills)
Was in good form last season and looks highly likely to be suited by this step up in trip. Won fresh last campaign too and can continue his progression this year.
 

The rider of my first tip here (won) has only two rides tomorrow and both have excellent chances and at two different tracks with little time between the races.
Fiery Breath goes 1605 hrs Ling at 15/2 with several going 4 places at 1/5
Pretty In Grey goes 1740 hrs Kemp at 6/1.............no room for error in getting from Ling to Kemp..........but that is taken care of.......an ew and ew double is how I will play with 100+ % from the saddle.Good luck if you have a dabble.

3.45 Catterick - Hummingbird  22/1@Bet365

Systemight's Tv Bets
Just over 6 pts profit last week.Back bets are with Bog Offering bookmakers,lay bets with Matchbook.
All selections to a 1 point stake..
1.50 Kelso PLAY WARENDORF @ 3/1 Betfred
2.00 Chel LAY WEST APPROACH (Max 4.5) and COGRY (Max 8.0)
2.25 Kelso PLAY PRINCE DUNDEE @9/2 Sporting Bet
2.35 Chel PLAY QUEL DESTIN @10/3 Betfred
3.00 Kelso PLAY DANDY DAN @ 5/2 Sporting Bet
3.10 Chel PLAY SAINT CALVADOS @3/1 Sporting Bet
3.35 Kelso PLAY GENNADY @ 13/2 Sporting Bet
3.45 Chel PLAY AYE RIGHT @4/1 Betfred

That was a useful 15 minutes
7/1, 8/1 and 10/1

 

Dutch Story     5:00    Great Yarmouth    6/5 @ Paddypower

12:25 Compiègne (FR): Nature’s Colors @ 3/1 BetVictor

Won!
https://www.skysports.com/racing/racecards/compiegne/14-10-2019/912513/poggio-ricco-stakes

5:20 Run For Mary Thurles 3/1 bet360.com 

3.05 Navan - Doonard Prince  40/1@Coral

14.35 Galway Jurby 10/1 b365
All the best.

Wolverhampton 18:50 Viola Park 20/1 EW Bet365
Similar problems to Alex Bird.  And on a day when I have not found much at all from the 4 racecards in play (3 in UK; 1 in RoI).
 
Anyway.  Good pounting all.  Obviously, those that are "tops" deserve the spoils.

1920 Newc Castle Quarter ew 14/1 @ Hills