ProfessorMJ

NHL System Picks for Friday February 21
There we go! A perfect 2-0 last night to break out of a slump. 
Let's build some momentum!
RECORD:
Bets won = 90 Bets lost = 109 Profit = +5.22 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
2 STARS = Blackhawks (@ +110 or 2.10 odds, vs Predators) 1 STAR = Rangers (@ +143 or 2.43 odds, at Hurricanes) 1 STAR = Flames (@ +120 or 2.20 odds, vs Bruins) 1 STAR = Ducks (@ +144 or 2.44 odds, vs Avalanche) The Calgary and Anaheim picks are both based on "The Porous Defense" betting angle:
"Suppose a team allows 4+ goals in each of its past two games. Bet them tonight if they are home underdogs."
Using this system over a nine-year period led to 27.64-unit gains via 267 bets.
The Flames have allowed 4 and 8 goals in their last two meetings, while the Ducks have surrendered 4 and 6 goals. Since they are indeed home underdogs, we are backing them tonight.
My birthday this weekend! ?? I'll talk to you again next Monday!
Professor MJ

NHL System Picks for Monday February 10
RECORD:
Bets won = 79 Bets lost = 91 Profit = +11.13 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
2 STARS = Coyotes (@ +121 or 2.21 odds, at Canadiens) 2 STARS = Panthers (@ +122 or 2.22 odds, at Flyers) 2 STARS = Lightning (@ -140 or 1.71 odds, at Blue Jackets) The Coyotes and Panthers picks are both based on "The Scoring Drought" strategy.
Here are the details of this betting angle:
"Suppose a team has lost its past two games by scoring a maximum of 3 goals in each contest. Bet them tonight if they are on the road with a money line greater than 1.80 (i.e. -125 in American format)."
This betting angle, over a nine-year period, generated a profit of 90.53 units through 1656 bets (ROI = +5.5%).
For example, the Panthers lost their past two games by 3-2 and 7-2 scores. Since they are road underdogs, we are betting them tonight.
Best of luck folks!
Professor MJ

NHL System Picks for Friday January 17th
The betting strategies picked 6 underdogs last night.
Unbelievably, those plays went 4-2 for a huge 4.06-unit profit!
RECORD:
Bets won = 78 Bets lost = 85 Profit = +16.05 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
3 STARS = RedWings (@ +208 or 3.08 odds, vs Penguins) I already have the answer to the question I raised yesterday about "morning" versus "closing" lines:
41.2% of the time, closing line > morning line 43.2% of the time, morning line > closing line 15.5% of the time, remained the same Also, the profit made from closing lines dropped very slightly compared to the one obtained from morning lines.
In summary, it doesn't really matter whether we bet the morning lines or the closing lines with respect to the plays recommended by my betting systems. Good to know!
Have a very nice weekend my friends!
Professor MJ

NHL System Picks for Wednesday January 15th
Yesterday was rough, as we lost 2.30 units, although we were 1 minute 15 seconds away from finishing the night with an overall gain.
Indeed, the Kings led 3-2 late in the third period, but Tampa tied the game with 1:15 left and won during the shootout.
Since the Kings were huge dogs whose odds were 3.40, we would have finished the night +1.10 instead of -2.30. Can't win them all! Let's rebound!
RECORD:
Bets won = 73 Bets lost = 83 Profit = +10.49 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
4 STARS = Flyers (@ +150 or 2.50 odds, at Blues) IMPORTANT!!! Here are some very interesting numbers!!!
1- Performance of all NHL System Plays this season as a function of the star rating
If the pick was based on...
1 system (rated 1-2 star(s)): +23.58 units via 245 bets (ROI = +9.6%) 2 systems (rated 3-4 stars): -5.45 units via 80 bets (ROI = -6.8%) 3+ systems (rated 5 stars): +5.53 units via 28 bets (ROI = +19.8%) The performance was disappointing when two betting angles recommend betting a given team, but things went pretty well when 3 systems or more supported the same team.
2- Performance of all NHL System Plays this season as a function of the odds
If the odds were...
Up to -110 (i.e. 1.91 in decimal format): -6.98 units via 46 bets Between -110 and +105 ("Even money plays"): +3.11 units via 35 bets Between +105 and +130 ("Small dogs"): +13.69 units via 86 bets Between +130 and +160 ("Moderate dogs"): +9.72 units via 92 bets +160 or more ("Big dogs"): +4.12 via 94 bets As suspected, betting favorites didn't do well.
All NHL system plays this season: +23.66 units via 353 bets (ROI = +6.7%) If we had focused on underdogs only (the last three categories): +27.53 units via 272 bets (ROI = +10.1%) I hope you enjoyed those breakdowns! Have a nice day!
Professor MJ

NFL Picks - Week #16
PICK #1: Buffalo Bills +6.5 at New England Patriots (rated 4 stars)
In the first meeting between these two squads back in Week #4, the Pats won a close 16-to-10 game despite four turnovers by the Bills. Buffalo racked up 375 total yards versus 224 for New England.
If not for Josh Allen’s ill-advised passes, the Bills could have won this game. He has learned the importance of protecting the ball since then, as shown by his 15 TD passes versus just three interceptions.
New England is 1-5 ATS against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, notice that the Bills are 3-1-1 ATS over their past five matchups at Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots have been a shaky team recently; their 34-to-13 win over the lowly Bengals doesn’t mean much. As for Buffalo, after a small mid-season slump, they are definitely trending up and playing smart football.
In my opinion, the point spread is inflated due to New England’s 20-year domination. They haven’t been that good recently. Their defense has been regressing a bit, although still good. Julian Edelman will likely suit up, but he’s battling a couple of injuries and he didn’t look comfortable last week (he only caught two passes).
Buffalo’s defense has allowed 16 points per game on average. Their pass defense is outstanding, and their run defense has improved a lot over the past few games.
It seems clear to me that the Patriots have much less than a 50% chance of beating the Bills by 7 points or more. I wouldn’t be surprised if Buffalo won the game outright. I’m taking the Bills to cover.
PICK #2: Houston Texans -3 at Tampa Bay Bucs (rated 3 stars)
When the regular season is nearing the end, the motivation factor is big. I find it difficult to pick a team that has nothing to play for, when facing a team that is fighting for the playoffs or for its seeding. It might even be possible that referees tend to favor the team that needs the game the most.
In this case, the Bucs have won five of their past six games, but these wins didn’t occur against power houses. They beat Detroit, Indy, Jacksonville, Atlanta and Arizona. Also, their two receivers by far, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both out. That leaves Jameis Winston with much fewer reliable targets. Speaking of Winston, he leads the league with 24 interceptions; the player in second position has 18.
At first sight, this game might be viewed as a sandwich game for the Texans since it is right between two meetings with the Titans. However, the game against Tampa is so important that there’s not way they will take it lightly. If Houston wins and the Titans lose against the Saints (a likely scenario, the Texans would be crowned AFC South champions and wouldn’t need to fight hard next week.
Only the Dolphins have allowed more points than the Bucs this season. Watson, Hopkins, Fuller and company won’t have trouble scoring this Saturday.
I am predicting a 14-point win for Houston.
PICK #3: New Orleans Saints -2.5 at Tennessee Titans (rated 3 stars)
Boy, the Saints offense has looked unstoppable the past two weeks. After scoring 46 points against the stout 49ers defense, they added 34 more Monday night against the Colts (all 34 points were scored through the first three quarters, and they didn’t try hard in the final quarter because of the large lead).
I know the Titans will be fighting for their playoff lives at home, but I wouldn’t feel good betting against the Saints offense. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill looked more shaky last week against a mediocre pass defense from Houston.
I noticed that Tennessee has faced just three winning teams this season: Buffalo, Kansas City and Houston.
If you think the Saints might struggle on grass, think again. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in their four most recent games on grass.
PICK #4: Dallas Cowboys -1.5 at Philadelphia Eagles (rated 1 star)
Man, these two teams have been fairly unpredictable this season, but I’ll give it a shot.
Even though some of my betting angles are favoring Philly, I’m still going to go with the most talented team, the Cowboys.
I wouldn’t feel good betting this Eagles team that is missing so many wide receivers. After losing speedy DeSean Jackson earlier this season, they now lost Alshon Jeffery to a foot injury and Nelson Agholor seems unlikely to be on the field this Sunday.
That leaves the Eagles with unproven guys at wide receiver. Hopefully, the Cowboys’ coaching staff will be smart enough to double-cover Zach Ertz, who is basically the lone catching threat left in their roster.
On top of that, running back Jordan Howard does not look ready to be back in action either.
Quarterback Carson Wentz has been holding on to the ball too long, and he often ends up getting sacked or fumbling the ball. The situation won’t improve with so few weapons at his disposal. He has to hope left tackle Lane Johnson will be able to suit up, otherwise he’ll have Demarcus Lawrence in his face all game long.
The possibly cold weather could help Philly, though, especially when facing a dome team like Dallas. However, did you know the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS over their past seven games in Philadelphia? They have also beaten the spread in each of the past four meetings with the Eagles overall.
Let’s be honest: Philly won its past two games, but they struggled mightily to get victories against the lowly Giants and Redskins. Those wins were unimpressive.
I am not grading this pick higher because of the cold weather, but also coaching. I trust Doug Pederson a lot more than Jason Garrett to make smart moves during the game. Morever, both teams have been pretty inconsistent so it seems harder to get a good grasp of what’s likely to happen this Sunday.
Merry Christmas, my sports investing friends! Enjoy your time with family!
Professor MJ

NHL System Picks for Friday December 20
3-1 last night, including two underdogs for a 2.39-unit profit. Let's keep it up, fellows!
RECORD:
Bets won = 58 Bets lost = 67 Profit = +6.89 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play) Today's lone system play based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
1 STAR = Rangers (at +150 or 2.50) vs Maple Leafs This pick is based on "The Porous Defense" betting angle that I told you about yesterday.
Have a great weekend, hockey fans!
Professor MJ

NHL Picks for Friday December 6
The 5-star and 4-star plays hit last night!
Despite a 2-3 record, we made a profit thanks in large part to the Blackhawks pulling off the big upset in Boston!
RECORD:
Bets won = 45 Bets lost = 49 Profit = +$7.58 (from RISKING 1$ on every play) Only one team meets the criteria of one of my 10 NHL betting systems:
3 STARS = Kings (at +146 or 2.46) at Oilers This pick relies on "The Big Upset" and "The Scoring Drought" strategies.
Here are the details of "The Big Upset" angle:
"Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds greater than 2.70 (i.e. +170 in American format. If Team B's next game is against Team C, bet Team C if its money line is greater than 1.667 (i.e. -150 in American format)."
This system yielded a profit of 27.81 units via 600 bets over a nine-year period. Not my personal favorite, but I'm still using it.
In Edmonton's last game, they were upset at home against the Sens. Ottawa's money line was much bigger than 2.70. According to the system, we need to bet AGAINST the Oilers, which means we're taking the Kings (unless they had been big favorites, which is not the case here).
I'll talk to you again Monday, unless... If you wish to receive the NHL system plays for all 4 weekends in December, please follow this link.
Professor MJ

NHL Picks for Wednesday December 4
Ouch. Tough day last night, as almost half of our yearly profit disappeared.
That's ok. Gotta learn to cope with losing streaks when doing sports investments.
RECORD:
Bets won = 42 Bets lost = 45 Profit = +$6.35 (from RISKING 1$ on every play) Today's system picks are:
2 STARS = Senators (at +190 or 2.90) at Oilers 2 STARS = Kings (at +121 or 2.21) vs Capitals The Los Angeles pick is based on "The Hot Scorers" betting angle:
"Suppose a team has scored 4+ goals in each of its past 3 games. Bet AGAINST that team if they are on the road tonight."
This system yielded a profit of 45.08 units via 332 bets over a nine-year period.
Now, the Caps have scored 5, 5 and 4 goals in their three most recent matchups. Considering they are the visiting team tonight, we are fading them.
Professor MJ
 

NHL Picks for Tuesday December 3
RECORD:
Bets won = 40 Bets lost = 38 Profit = +$11.12 (from RISKING 1$ on every play) Today's system picks are (what??? 9 system picks out of 10 games, I've never seen that before!):
5 STARS = Stars (at -109 or 1.92) at Jets 4 STARS = Hurricanes (at +135 or 2.35) at Bruins 4 STARS = Maple Leafs (at -114 or 1.88) at Flyers 4 STARS = Coyotes (at +119 or 2.19) at Blue Jackets 3 STARS = Lightning (at +104 or 2.04) at Predators 2 STARS = Senators (at +145 or 2.45) at Canucks 2 STARS = Sharks (at +107 or 2.07) vs Capitals 1 STAR = Islanders (at +111 or 2.11) at Canadiens 1 STAR = Devils (at +125 or 2.25) vs Golden Knights The Dallas pick is based on the following three betting systems: "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Snapped Winning Streak". The latter goes like this:
"Bet against a team whose winning streak of length 3+ was just snapped in their previous game. Bet only if your team's money line is greater than 1.667 (i.e. -150 in American format)."
This betting strategy used over a nine-year period led to gains of $87.34 through 1045 bets.
In this case, the Jets just got their three-game winning streak snapped, so we are fading them tonight.
Professor MJ
 

NHL Picks for Tuesday December 3
RECORD:
Bets won = 40 Bets lost = 38 Profit = +$11.12 (from RISKING 1$ on every play) Today's system picks are (what??? 9 system picks out of 10 games, I've never seen that before!):
5 STARS = Stars (at -109 or 1.92) at Jets 4 STARS = Hurricanes (at +135 or 2.35) at Bruins 4 STARS = Maple Leafs (at -114 or 1.88) at Flyers 4 STARS = Coyotes (at +119 or 2.19) at Blue Jackets 3 STARS = Lightning (at +104 or 2.04) at Predators 2 STARS = Senators (at +145 or 2.45) at Canucks 2 STARS = Sharks (at +107 or 2.07) vs Capitals 1 STAR = Islanders (at +111 or 2.11) at Canadiens 1 STAR = Devils (at +125 or 2.25) vs Golden Knights The Dallas pick is based on the following three betting systems: "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Snapped Winning Streak". The latter goes like this:
"Bet against a team whose winning streak of length 3+ was just snapped in their previous game. Bet only if your team's money line is greater than 1.667 (i.e. -150 in American format)."
This betting strategy used over a nine-year period led to gains of $87.34 through 1045 bets.
In this case, the Jets just got their three-game winning streak snapped, so we are fading them tonight.
Professor MJ
 

NHL Picks for Monday December 2
RECORD:
Bets won = 39 Bets lost = 37 Profit = +$11.36 (from RISKING 1$ on every play) Today's system picks are:
2 STARS = Golden Knights (at -132 or 1.76) at Rangers 1 STAR = RedWings (at +177 or 2.77) vs Islanders The Detroit pick is based on "The Porous Defense" betting angle:
"Suppose a team allows 4+ goals in each of its past two games. Bet them tonight if they are playing at home with a money line greater than 2.05 (i.e. +105 in American format)."
Using this system over a nine-year period led to 27.64-unit gains via 267 bets.
The Wings have allowed 5 and 6 goals in their last two meetings, respectively. Since they are indeed home underdogs, we are backing them tonight.
It also fits my contrarian approach; they won't be a sexy pick considering they have lost their past nine games.
Professor MJ
 

NHL Picks for Friday November 29
Today's system picks are:
5 STARS = Red Wings (at +221 or 3.21) at Flyers 3 STARS = Kings (at +140 or 2.40) at Sharks 3 STARS = Blues (at +135 or 2.35) at Stars 2 STARS = Senators (at +167 or 2.67) at Wild 2 STARS = Capitals (at -111 or 1.90) vs Lightning 1 STAR = Predators (at +114 or 2.14) at Hurricanes Happy Friday!
Professor MJ

NHL Picks for Thursday November 28
3-2 last night despite picking 5 underdogs, so a good money making day (+1.80 units)!
Both losses by a one-goal margin, so we had a legitimate shot at a perfect 5-0 record.
RECORD:
Bets won = 36 Bets lost = 34 Profit = +$10.97 (from RISKING 1$ on every play) Just one game in the NHL today. My 10 betting systems recommend staying away from that game.
I still wanted to wish a great Thanksgiving day to my American friends! Enjoy your day with your loved ones!
Professor MJ
 

NHL Picks for Wednesday November 27
RECORD:
Bets won = 33 Bets lost = 32 Profit = +$9.17 (from RISKING 1$ on every play) Today's picks are:
5 STARS = Blues (at +138 or 2.38) at Lightning 2 STARS = Panthers (at +138 or 2.38) at Capitals 2 STARS = Golden Knights (at +117 or 2.17) at Predators 2 STARS = Jets (at +125 or 2.25) at Sharks 1 STAR = Ducks (at +127 or 2.27) at Coyotes The Blues pick is based on three betting systems at a time, including "The Cold Team vs Hot Team Matchup", which goes like this:
"Bet a road team coming off 2+ straight LOSSES when facing a home team coming off 2+ straight WINS. Bet only if the road team's money line is greater than 2.25 in decimal format."
Over a nine-year period, this strategy yielded a profit of 42.69 units via 428 bets.
In this case, St. Louis is undergoing a two-game losing skid, while Tampa is riding a three-game winning streak. Since the odds on the Blues are indeed larger than 2.25, we are betting them tonight!
Have a nice day all!
Professor MJ
 

NHL Picks for Wednesday November 27
RECORD:
Bets won = 33 Bets lost = 32 Profit = +$9.17 (from RISKING 1$ on every play) Today's picks are:
5 STARS = Blues (at +138 or 2.38) at Lightning 2 STARS = Panthers (at +138 or 2.38) at Capitals 2 STARS = Golden Knights (at +117 or 2.17) at Predators 2 STARS = Jets (at +125 or 2.25) at Sharks 1 STAR = Ducks (at +127 or 2.27) at Coyotes The Blues pick is based on three betting systems at a time, including "The Cold Team vs Hot Team Matchup", which goes like this:
"Bet a road team coming off 2+ straight LOSSES when facing a home team coming off 2+ straight WINS. Bet only if the road team's money line is greater than 2.25 in decimal format."
Over a nine-year period, this strategy yielded a profit of 42.69 units via 428 bets.
In this case, St. Louis is undergoing a two-game losing skid, while Tampa is riding a three-game winning streak. Since the odds on the Blues are indeed larger than 2.25, we are betting them tonight!
Have a nice day all!
Professor MJ
 

Come on Professor MJ. Rise and rise again and let’s hit them bookies this week.

NHL Picks for Thursday November 21
Nice hit with the Rangers upsetting the top team in the league last night, yet another rewarding betting day!
RECORD:
Bets won = 29 Bets lost = 26 Profit = +$10.69 (from RISKING 1$ on every play) Today's picks are:
5 STARS = Red Wings (at +151 or 2.51) at Blue Jackets 4 STARS = Sabres (at +192 or 2.92) at Bruins 4 STARS = Flyers (at +144 or 2.44) at Hurricanes 4 STARS = Maple Leafs (at +103 or 2.03) at Coyotes 2 STARS = Flames (at +135 or 2.35) at Blues The Detroit pick is rated 5 stars because it meets the criteria of three different betting angles: "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold Team versus Hot Team matchup".
Let's stay hot!
Professor MJ

NHL Picks for Wednesday November 20
5 wins and 3 losses last night. Considering all 8 picks were on underdogs, we made a nice 3.15 unit profit.
RECORD:
Bets won = 28 Bets lost = 26 Profit = +$9.11 (from RISKING 1$ on every play) Only one pick today (odds from Bookmaker):
1 STAR = Rangers (at +158 or 2.58) vs Capitals The pick is based on "The Porous Defense" betting angle:
"Suppose a team allows 4+ goals in each of its past two games. Bet them tonight if they are playing at home with a money line greater than 2.05 (i.e. +105 in American format)."
Using this system over a nine-year period led to 27.64-unit gains via 267 bets.
The Rangers have allowed 4 and 9 goals in their last two meetings, respectively. Since they are indeed home underdogs, we are backing them tonight at MSG.
Good day!
Professor MJ

NHL Picks for Tuesday November 19
For the second straight day, both picks lost.
We knew a losing streak was bound to happen, eventually. Let's hope it does not last very long!
RECORD:
Bets won = 23 Bets lost = 23 Profit = +$5.96 (from RISKING 1$ on every play) Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):
5 STARS = Blues (at +106 or 2.06) vs Lightning 2 STARS = Flyers (at +120 or 2.20) at Panthers 2 STARS = Islanders (at +113 or 2.13) at Penguins 2 STARS = Blue Jackets (at +107 or 2.07) vs Canadiens 2 STARS = Canucks (at +130 or 2.30) at Stars 2 STARS = Maple Leafs (at +131 or 2.31) at Golden Knights 2 STARS = Oilers (at +123 or 2.23) at Sharks 1 STAR = Jets (at +166 or 2.66) at Predators The Blues pick is based on three betting systems: "The Big Upset", "The Snapped Winning Streak" and "The Cold Teams Matchup".
Here are the details of "The Big Upset" strategy:
"Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds greater than 2.70 in decimal format (i.e. +170 in American format). If Team B's next game is against a different opponent called Team C, bet Team C is its money line is greater than 1.667 in decimal format (i.e. -150 in American format, to avoid betting big favorites which did not prove to be profitable)."
Tampa's last game was a 4-3 loss to Winnipeg, where the Jets' money line was 2.88. For this reason, we are going to bet AGAINST the Lightning tonight (since St. Louis is NOT a big favorite today).
Cheers!
Professor MJ

NHL Picks for November 8
Big payday last night!
The system plays went 3-1, including a big underdog (Rangers at Canes) and a moderate dog (Jackets at Coyotes).
We won 3.71 units, which now puts us in profit territory! Attaboy!
RECORD:
Bets won = 14 Bets lost = 14 Profit = +$1.99 (from RISKING 1$ on every play) Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):
5 STARS = Red Wings (at +220 or 3.20) vs Bruins 4 STARS = Canucks (at +110 or 2.10) at Jets  Once again we are going after a long shot. Detroit's pick meets the criteria of a season-high 4 betting systems at a time. It won't be easy at all, so let's cross our fingers!
Professor MJ

Thursday Night Football - Week #10
LEAN: Los Angeles Chargers pick’em at Oakland Raiders
Wow, what a critical game this is for both teams! The loser will suffer a significant blow to its playoff hopes.
Can you feel the Chargers train picking up speed? That big win over the Packers last weekend may become their season turning point. Last year the Chargers started the season 1-2 before winning 11 of their last 13 games. In 2017, they got off to a disappointing 3-6 record before going 6-1 during the last stretch of the season. Can they do it again this year?
The largest margin of defeat by Los Angeles this year has been just 7 points! Meanwhile, the Raiders lost games by 20-, 18- and 18-point margins.
After holding out the first four games of the season, Melvin Gordon seems to be back to game speed. He had his best game of 2019 with 20 rushes for 80 yards and a couple of TDs versus the Packers.
Both teams have a solid and well-balanced attack. On the Chargers side, you’ve got Rivers, Gordon, Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and underrated tight end Hunter Henry. On the Raiders side, you’ve got Derek Carr under center with rookie sensation Josh Jacobs running the ball, along with Tyrell Williams and the surprising Darren Waller catching balls.
The big difference to me lies on the defensive side of the ball. Oakland lacks playmakers; they don’t have guys that can really put some pressure on opposing quarterbacks like Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram can. These guys pressured Aaron Rodgers all game long last Sunday, despite very few blitzes. One of the few bright spots for the Raiders on defense, Arden Key, broke his foot and will miss the remainder of the season.
Firing their offensive coordinator and replacing him with a new guy did wonders to the Chargers’ offense. They moved the ball very well against Green Bay. The players seemed to enjoy his playcalling. None of their 9 possessions ended with a three-and-out, and Los Angeles had to punt just once!
Josh Jacobs’ shoulder seems to be bothering him. He played last week, but he is still listed on the injury list. He might feel sore on such a short week.
It should be an entertaining game, but in the end I expect the Chargers to come out on top.
Enjoy the game folks!
Professor MJ

Rough week for you, but I'm sure you'll rebound nicely buddy!!

So we agree on 49ers and Bears, but not on Lions-Raiders and Pats-Ravens. I was leaning towards the Titans, so good to see you like them as well.

Great job buddy!! Quick (and potentially stupid) question: what does "NAPS" and "NB" mean?

Written Wednesday October 23rd, 2019 at 11 AM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
PICK: New York Jets +6 at Jacksonville Jaguars (rated 4 stars)
This is a perfect example of overreaction to recent results. The line is clearly inflated because of the humiliation inflicted by the Patriots to the Jets on national television Monday night.
Sam Darnold looked awful by turning the ball over 5 times. Does that suddenly make him the worst QB in the league? Of course, not. As usual, Bill Belichick came up with a smart plan and it worked to perfection. New York’s offensive line had trouble figuring out which players were going to blitz, and Darnold was under pressure all game long.
Let’s look at the numbers. In Darnold’s two other games this season, he has completed 51 of his 73 passes for a 70% completion rate. He threw 3 TD passes versus just one pick. And those games occurred against above-average defenses: the Bills and the Cowboys.
This dreadful loss against what we may be the best team in the NFL does not make the Jets a super bad team all of a sudden. Before the season began, the line in Vegas for their regular season wins was 7.5 (which was about the same for Jacksonville, by the way). Sure, they are 1-5 right now, but Luke Falk was the quarterback for three of those games.
To me, the Jets and the Jags are pretty much of equal strength. In my humble opinion, Jacksonville should be favored by 3-4 points; 4.5 at most! The 6-point spread seems like a bargain to me!
Elements not favoring New York: they lose one day of rest/preparation after playing the Monday Nighter, and the matchup against the Jags is sandwiched between a couple of divisional games (against the Pats and the Dolphins).
Factors favoring New York: they’ll want to avenge a 31-12 loss in Jacksonville last year. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after such an embarrassing performance on primetime television. They are coming off a stretch of four games where they were at home on three occasions (not much traveling). And the Jags could be looking ahead to a critical showdown against the Texans next week.
Give me the Jets as 6-point dogs.
LEAN: Tennessee Titans -2.5 vs Tampa Bay Bucs
I rarely fade teams after their bye week, but I’m going to do it here.
This is a non-conference road game for Tampa, which is not super motivating. This meeting also marks a sandwich game for the Bucs; they are coming off a couple of key games against the Saints and the Panthers, and they are going to face the Seahawks next.
The Titans are at home for the third time in four weeks.
People often focus much more of each team’s offense but overlook their defense. In this case, it’s a total mismatch. The Bucs have allowed an average of 31 points per game, while the Titans have surrendered just 16 points per game. They have not allowed more than 20 points through their first seven contests, which is exceptional!
When two evenly matched teams face each other, the point spread usually favors the home team by 3 points. In this case, Tennessee is established as 2.5-point favorites, which implies Tampa is a slightly better team. I disagree, as I feel the Titans are a bit stronger, especially with Ryan Tannehill under center. To me, he’s a better QB than Marcus Mariota. Switching QBs was a smart move by head coach Mike Vrabel, in my opinion.
I’m going with the Titans in this one.
I hope you enjoyed this week’s write up, we’ll talk again next week!
Professor MJ