ProfessorMJ

Written Monday February 1st, 2021 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
 
Last year, I crushed Vegas sportsbooks by winning $8,330 USD on Super Bowl proposition bets. Will I enjoy the same success wagering online this year?
First, it is critical that you understand HOW the picks are made.
I have set up an Excel spreadsheet where I track the lines from 15-20 online sportsbooks on all possible prop bets. The file has several thousands of rows.
This is a gold mine of information allowing me to find great bargains very quickly.
I’ll do my best to explain to you how it works. The best way to do so is via a concrete example, so let’s dive right away into the first pick.
 
SUPER BOWL PROP BET #1: CHRIS JONES OVER 2.5 TACKLES+ASSISTS (@130 odds with 10Bet)
First, let me show you the lines on this market from five different online bookies:

The lines from a given sportsbook can be converted into “fair odds.”
Let’s look at the odds from William Hill Canada: +110 on the over, -140 on the under. What would be “fair odds”, i.e. odds if the bookie wasn’t taking a commission (also called the “vigorish”)?
I do not want to bore you with the mathematical details, but the answer is: +123 on the over, -123 on the under. If you wish to know how I came up with those numbers, I invite you to read the following article I wrote a few years ago (https://www.professormj.com/pages/sports-betting-lessons-value-betting).
Then, you can convert those “fair odds” into “fair probabilities.” Again, you can check out the article above for more details, but in the case of this exemple we obtain a fair probability of 44.9% on the over and 55.1% on the under.
To make things clear: William Hill Canada believes Chris Jones has a 44.9% chance of posting more than 2.5 tackles+assists (and obviously a 55.1% chance of recording less than 2.5 tackles+assists).
You can repeat the same process for each sportsbook. And then take the average across all sportsbooks who have lines on this specific proposition bet.
In the Chris Jones example, the average true probability on the over is 47.1% versus 52.9% on the under. This is literally the average “opinion” of the numerous sportsbooks.
 
If you convert those true probabilities back into odds, you get +112 on the over versus -112 on the under.
Those are the critical numbers!
They represent the break-even odds, or the minimum odds required to bet.
The conclusion goes like this:
Bet over 2.5 tackles+assists by Chris Jones if you get odds that are better than +112 (or 2.12 in decimal format);
Bet under 2.5 tackles+assists by Chris Jones if you get odds that are better than -112 (or 1.89 in decimal format).
Now, since 10Bet is offering +130 odds on the over, that’s a good value wager!
Hopefully, your head is not spinning too much from reading all of those numbers.
Thank God, I do not need to do these calculations manually for each prop bet! The lone task required is to enter the odds for each prop bet from lots of sportsbooks. My Excel spreadsheet does the rest!
See what it looks like:

 
SUPER BOWL PROP BET #2: SHORTEST TOUCHDOWN UNDER 1.5 YARD (@-138 odds with Bet365)
Let’s take a look at the lines from a few online bookmakers:

Clearly, Bet365 has a weird line on the under. That’s why I am taking advantage of it.
 
SUPER BOWL PROP BET #3: NO ONSIDE KICK ATTEMPT (@-175 odds with Bodog/Bovada)
Again, let’s take a look at the different odds on this prop bet:

You can tell very quickly which sportsbook has a soft line: Bodog/Bovada at -175 odds on “NO”.
Believe me, the Super Bowl becomes so much more exciting when you have 10-20-30 prop bets going on. I really had a blast last year.
Enjoy the game my friend!!!
Professor MJ
https://youtu.be/0hZDE74Q7zA

MLB PICK FOR July 4th

Twins get doubled up by the Royals and we take another L. Back at it with the Twins!

RECORD:
Bets won = 12
Bets lost = 24
Profit = -11.84 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Caesars at 8:00 Eastern Time):

Minnesota Twins (@ -139, vs Royals, taking "Action")

This pick is coming from my betting systems. For an in-depth look at my betting systems, feel free to check out my Twitter or YouTube channel.

Good luck!
Professor MJ
Twitter @DavidBeaudoin79

That's a wrap! I've decided that there are too many unknowns in the final two CAL/VAN games that even if they qualify for one of my systems that I won't be taking it.

Overall for the NHL season, my POTD is finished with a 31-29 record! Since the majority of the plays are 'underdogs' we finished up 12.33u for an incredible ROI of 20.56%!

Once again, thanks for following and I'll be looking to doing something similar next season. If you're interested, you can  check out my other system plays for the NBA, MLB, NFL, WNBA that I post frequently on my Twitter @DavidBeaudoin79 or on Youtube @Professor MJ!

NHL PICK FOR May 15th

The Sens upset the Leafs in their last matchup on the 12th. We didn’t have a qualifying play on the 13th or 14th and todays play is likely the last of the regular season (unless something in the CAL/VAN final 3 games looks REALLY good).
 
Regardless, I wanted to thank everyone for tailing. I’m really glad that we were able to win several units through our first 60 plays (with a great ROI too!). I’ve really appreciated all the kinds DMs and for those interested in following my other systems, be sure to check out my Twitter or YouTube channel for daily picks!

RECORD:
Bets won = 30
Bets lost = 29
Profit = +10.58 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Coolbet at 10:00am Eastern Time):

Vancouver (+175) at Edmonton

This pick is based on "The Cold vs Hot Teams Matchup" betting system, which goes as follows:
 
Bet a road team coming off 2+ straight losses when facing a home team coming off 2+ straight wins. Do it only if the road team's money line is better than +125 (i.e. 2.25 in decimal).
 
This strategy, over many seasons, led to a 42.69-unit profit via 428 bets (a 10.0% ROI).

This is a perfect time for Vancouver to catch Edmonton looking ahead to the playoffs. Vancouver has lost their two games while Edmonton is enjoying a three game winning streak, but I’m anticipating that their heads just won’t be in it tonight.

Good luck!
Professor MJ
Twitter @DavidBeaudoin79 or on Youtube @Professor MJ

NHL PICK FOR May 12th

Tampa didn’t even give us a chance to win our bet so our 4-bet winning streak comes to an end. We didn’t have a play yesterday as neither of the two NHL games qualified for a play. Truthfully, I’m not sure how many plays we’ll have with such a limited schedule over the next week but I’ll be sure to post a wrap-up at the end of the season.

RECORD:
Bets won = 30
Bets lost = 28
Profit = +11.58 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Bookmaker at 10:45am Eastern Time):

Toronto (-163) at Ottawa

This pick is based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting system, which goes as follows:
 
Bet AGAINST a team whose winning streak of length 3+ was just snapped in their previous game. Make the bet only if the team you are betting has a money line that's better than -150 (i.e. 1.667 in decimal).
 
This strategy, over many seasons, produced a 87.34-unit gain on 1045 bets (a 8.4% ROI).

Ottawa’s young team was rolling but had their 3 game winning streak snapped. Although Toronto doesn’t have much to play for right now, we still believe there is value at this price.

Good luck!
Professor MJ
Twitter @DavidBeaudoin79 or on Youtube @Professor MJ

NHL PICK FOR May 10th

The Predators give us our 4th win in a row, three of which were underdogs! I wish the season wasn’t ending this week as we are on a roll!

RECORD:
Bets won = 30
Bets lost = 27
Profit = +12.58 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from BetOnline at 10:00am Eastern Time):

Tampa Bay (+119) at Florida

This pick is based on "The Cold vs Hot Teams Matchup" betting system, which goes as follows:
 
Bet a road team coming off 2+ straight losses when facing a home team coming off 2+ straight wins. Do it only if the road team's money line is better than +125 (i.e. 2.25 in decimal).
 
This strategy, over many seasons, led to a 42.69-unit profit via 428 bets (a 10.0% ROI).

Two teams appearing to go in opposite directions and we feel the public is over-valuing Florida’s recent good run so we’ll be betting Tampa Bay!

Good luck!
Professor MJ

NHL PICK FOR May 8th

Vegas gives us our third win in a row! Can we keep the momentum during the final week of NHL games?

RECORD:
Bets won = 29
Bets lost = 27
Profit = +11.48 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from bwin at 11:00am Eastern Time):

Carolina at Nashville (+110)

This pick is based on "The Big Upset" betting system, which goes as follows:
 
Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds that are greater than +170 (i.e. 2.70 in decimal). If Team B's next game is against a different opponent called Team C, bet Team C (only if its money line is better than -150, i.e. 1.667 in decimal).
 
In other words, we are expecting a team that was just the victim of a big upset to lose once again.
 
This strategy, over many seasons, yielded a 27.81-unit profit via 600 bets (a 4.6% ROI).

The Hurricanes recently lost as big favorites against the Blackhawks. We believe the Predators can strike as well in a very important game for them.

Good luck!
Professor MJ

NHL PICK FOR May 7th

In reading the forums, not many people had the Canucks at +242 odds but we did! Our biggest underdog hit of the season! We’ve once again surpassed the +10u mark through our first 55 bets.
 
For anyone interested, I have system plays for the NBA, MLB, NFL among other sports that I post frequently on my Twitter @DavidBeaudoin79 or on Youtube @Professor MJ– If you like these picks, come check me out!

RECORD:
Bets won = 28
Bets lost = 27
Profit = +10.85 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from BetOnline at 9:15am Eastern Time):

St. Louis vs Vegas (-158)

This pick is based on "The Big Upset" betting system, which goes as follows:
 
Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds that are greater than +170 (i.e. 2.70 in decimal). If Team B's next game is against a different opponent called Team C, bet Team C (only if its money line is better than -150, i.e. 1.667 in decimal).
 
In other words, we are expecting a team that was just the victim of a big upset to lose once again.
 
This strategy, over many seasons, yielded a 27.81-unit profit via 600 bets (a 4.6% ROI).

The Blues were big favorites on Wednesday in their loss to the Ducks. We’re betting that the Golden Knights can beat the Blues as well!

Good luck!
Professor MJ

NHL PICK FOR May 6th

The Jets snap their 7 game losing streak and we snap our 3 bet losing streak. Lets go on a run!

RECORD:
Bets won = 27
Bets lost = 27
Profit = +8.43 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 7:30am Eastern Time):

Vancouver (+242) at Edmonton

This pick is based on "The Cold vs Hot Teams Matchup" betting system, which goes as follows:
 
Bet a road team coming off 2+ straight losses when facing a home team coming off 2+ straight wins. Do it only if the road team's money line is better than +125 (i.e. 2.25 in decimal).
 
This strategy, over many seasons, led to a 42.69-unit profit via 428 bets (a 10.0% ROI).

Seemingly two teams that are going in opposite directions. Edmonton no longer has as much to play for having locked up the 2nd seed in their division. They are definitely the favorites, but this line looks to have some value.

Good luck!
Professor MJ

NHL PICK FOR May 5th

There was too much value on the Canucks last night, but unfortunately they were unable to get it done.

RECORD:
Bets won = 26
Bets lost = 27
Profit = +7.34 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 7:30am Eastern Time):

Winnipeg (+117) at Calgary

This pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" betting system, which goes as follows:
 
Suppose a team has lost its past two games, while scoring at most 3 goals in each of those defeats. Bet them tonight if they are on the road with a money line that is better than -125 (i.e. 1.80 in decimal).
 
This strategy, over many seasons, produced a 90.53-unit profit over 1656 bets (a 5.5% ROI).

The Jets are having trouble putting the puck in the back of their net having scored only 1, 3 and 1 goals in their last 3 games. Our systems believe that there is value on the Jets at this price.

Good luck!
Professor MJ

NHL PICK FOR May 4th

Our last two losses have both come from the Dallas Stars – maybe it’s time we stop betting them?

RECORD:
Bets won = 26
Bets lost = 26
Profit = +8.34 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from BetOnline at 11:30am Eastern Time):

Edmonton vs Vancouver (+175)

This pick is based on "The Porous Defense" betting system, which goes as follows:
 
Suppose a team has allowed 4+ goals in each of their last two games. Bet them if they are home underdogs today.
 
This strategy, over many seasons, generated a 27.64-unit profit via 267 bets (a 10.4% ROI).

The Canucks are in a tough spot right now with a condensed schedule to finish off the season. Their defense has been tired and lackluster. While I agree Edmonton is a favorite here, I see a bit of value on the Canucks line. You may want to make this a half-unit play if you’re following…

Good luck!
Professor MJ

NHL PICK FOR May 1st

Three straight underdog wins have us surpass the +10 unit mark through our first 50 bets! Hope several of you have been following and enjoying the nice run that we’re having!

Be sure to check out my Twitter for additional plays and sports betting videos (at)Professor MJ

RECORD:
Bets won = 26
Bets lost = 24
Profit = +10.34 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Draftkings at 12:30pm Eastern Time):

Dallas (+100) at Nashville

This pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" betting system, which goes as follows:

Suppose a team has lost its past two games, while scoring at most 3 goals in each of those defeats. Bet them tonight if they are on the road with a money line that is better than -125 (i.e. 1.80 in decimal).

This strategy, over many seasons, produced a 90.53-unit profit over 1656 bets (a 5.5% ROI).

Dallas has been having trouble putting pucks in the back of the net, but this line feels like the public has over-valued Nashville. We’ll be betting that the Stars win this game.

Good luck!
Professor MJ

NHL PICK FOR APRIL 30

The Islanders breeze to victory for a no-sweat underdog win!

Thank you for all the kind PMs, I’m glad that I’ve been able to help several of you make some money this past week!

For anyone interested, I have system plays for the NBA, MLB, NFL among other sports that I post frequently on my Twitter @DavidBeaudoin79 or on Youtube @Professor MJ– If you like these picks, come check me out!


RECORD:
Bets won = 25
Bets lost = 24
Profit = +8.59 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 12:30pm Eastern Time):

Vegas vs Arizona (+175)

This pick is based on "The Hot Scorers" betting system, which goes as follows:

Suppose a team has scored 4+ goals in each of its past 3 games (not necessarily wins). FADE them if they are playing on the road today.

This strategy, over many seasons, yielded a 45.08-unit profit through 332 bets (a 13.6% ROI).

I don’t normally take a play with such high odds, but the Coyotes qualify as they meet multiple systems including the Hot Scorers. Vegas has been rolling on offense and we believe that the public is over-valuing their recent play so we’ll be betting Arizona! Lets face it, Arizona just needs to win a lot more than Vegas does right now.

Good luck!
Professor MJ

NHL PICK FOR APRIL 29

The Blues make the comeback and we hit a nice underdog pick!

RECORD:
Bets won = 24
Bets lost = 24
Profit = +7.45 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 12:30pm Eastern Time):

NY Islanders (+114) at NY Rangers

This pick is based on "The Stingy Goalies" betting system, which goes as follows:

Suppose a team has won its past 3 games, while allowing a maximum of 3 goals in each of those victories. If they are at home today, bet AGAINST them (provided that the road team's money line is better than -135, or 1.74 in decimal).

This strategy, over many seasons, led to a 63.88-unit gain over 933 wagers (a 6.8% ROI).

The Rangers haven’t allowed many goals in any of their last 3 games and we believe that the public will be over-valuing the Rangers goaltending so we’ll be betting on the Islanders!

Good luck!
Professor MJ

NHL PICK FOR APRIL 27

The Canucks fell flat and couldn’t overtake the Sens last night snapping our winning streak. On to the next pick…

RECORD:
Bets won = 23
Bets lost = 23
Profit = +7.12 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from 10Bet at 10:30am Eastern Time):

NY Islander (+105) at Washington

This pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" betting system, which goes as follows:

Suppose a team has lost its past two games, while scoring at most 3 goals in each of those defeats. Bet them tonight if they are on the road with a money line that is better than -125 (i.e. 1.80 in decimal).

This strategy, over many seasons, produced a 90.53-unit profit over 1656 bets (a 5.5% ROI).

The Islanders have had trouble putting the puck in the back of the net in their last two outings, we believe that the public will overvalue this statistic and be placing our bet on the Islanders to win tonight!

Good luck!
Professor MJ

NHL PICK FOR APRIL 26
 
Although it was a boring 1-0 game, it was great for our bankrolls as we pick up another win with the Penguin yesterday. Back to back underdog wins!
 
For anyone interested, I have system plays for the NBA, MLB, NFL among other sports that I post frequently on my Twitter @DavidBeaudoin79 or on Youtube @Professor MJ– If you like these picks, come check me out!
 
 
RECORD:
Bets won = 23
Bets lost = 22
Profit = +8.12 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)
 
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 10:00am Eastern Time):
 
Vancouver (-112) at Ottawa
 
This pick is based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting system, which goes as follows:
 
Bet AGAINST a team whose winning streak of length 3+ was just snapped in their previous game. Make the bet only if the team you are betting has a money line that's better than -150 (i.e. 1.667 in decimal).
 
This strategy, over many seasons, produced a 87.34-unit gain on 1045 bets (a 8.4% ROI).
 
This game means a lot for Vancouver who is clinging to their playoff hopes. In addition, Ottawa lost its momentum when their winning streak was snapped. We expect Vancouver to capitalize.
 
Good luck!
Professor MJ

NHL PICK FOR APRIL 23
 
Back to back underdog wins has us up over 7u through our first 42 picks! Let’s keep this momentum with another NHL play!
 
RECORD:
 
Bets won = 21
Bets lost = 21
Profit = +7.11 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)
 
Today's pick of the day (odds from many sportsbooks at 1:30pm Eastern Time):
 
Nashville vs Chicago (+114)
 
This pick is based on "The Porous Defense" betting system, which goes as follows:
 
Suppose a team has allowed 4+ goals in each of their last two games. Bet them if they are home underdogs today.
 
This strategy, over many seasons, generated a 27.64-unit profit via 267 bets (a 10.4% ROI).
 
Simply put, Chicago has allowed 4+ goals in each of their last two games, despite winning one of those games 5-4. We feel like the public is overvaluing Nashville here so we’ll be betting Chicago.
 
Good luck!
Professor MJ

NHL PICK FOR APRIL 22

The Habs came through with a big win over the Oilers. Lets see if we can hit another underdog play. For anyone interested in a breakdown of my next pick, search me on YouTube @ Professor MJ!

RECORD:

Bets won = 20
Bets lost = 21
Profit = +5.64 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 12:30am Eastern Time):

Philadelphia (+147) at NY Rangers

This pick is based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting system, which goes as follows:

Bet AGAINST a team whose winning streak of length 3+ was just snapped in their previous game. Make the bet only if the team you are betting has a money line that's better than -150 (i.e. 1.667 in decimal).

This strategy, over many seasons, produced a 87.34-unit gain on 1045 bets (a 8.4% ROI).

The Rangers have been hot but recently had their winning streak snapped. We believe casual bettors will be overvaluing the Rangers here so we’ll be placing our wager with the Flyers!

Good luck!
Professor MJ

NHL PICK FOR APRIL 2

The incredible run continues! The Wild pulled off the shootout win for our 6th straight ‘Pick of the Day’ win! It’s great to have some positive variance on our side – I hope many of you have been making some money from this run as well!

RECORD:
Bets won = 12
Bets lost = 9
Profit = +7.04 units (from RISKING 1 unit per play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Bookmaker at 10:20 pm Eastern Time):

Arizona vs Anaheim (+107)

This pick is based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting system, which goes as follows:

Bet AGAINST a team whose winning streak of length 3+ was just snapped in their previous game. Make the bet only if the team you are betting has a money line that's better than -150 (i.e. 1.667 in decimal).
This strategy, over many seasons, produced a 87.34-unit gain on 1045 bets (a 8.4% ROI).

Arizona just had their 3 game winning streak snapped and now they’ve got to travel to Anaheim so we’ll be betting the Ducks!

Good luck!
Professor MJ

Written Thursday January 7th, 2021 at 10 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
First, let’s recap the performance of the NFL picks against the spread (ATS) for the entire 2020 season:
5 STARS: 4-3 record
4 STARS: 9-4-1 record
3 STARS: 10-11-1 record
2 STARS: 4-9-2 record
1 STAR: 9-4 record
OVERALL: 36-31-4 record (a 53.7% win rate)
If you are betting at -110 odds, you need to win 52.4% of your bets in order to net a profit.
When wagering at -105 odds, that figure is 51.2%.
In other words, this year’s NFL tips led to a small profit overall (but still a gain nonetheless!).
Next week, I’ll show you how my preseason predictions about each team’s win total went. As you’ll see, it did incredibly well and you certainly turned a great profit if you tailed those plays!
During the regular season, I did not make a pick on all games. For entertainment purposes, I’ll do it in the playoffs. I will let you know how much confidence I have in each pick.
The best part of the NFL season is coming up, so let’s dive right in!
 
WILD CARD GAME #1: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-6.5)
We are starting strong with my top pick of the weekend: I’m putting my money on the Bills in this matchup.
Can you believe Buffalo has beaten the spread in each of their last eight games? That’s unbelievable!
Only four teams ended the season by beating the spread on 8+ consecutive games. All of them were winning wagers in their first playoff game.
The Colts suffered a big blow in Week 16 when they lost their star left tackle Anthony Castonzo. The team absolutely needs to protect Philip Rivers well because he is a statue in the pocket, and he tends to get bottled up easily.
To me, Rivers having no mobility whatsoever is a big factor, as opposed to Josh Allen who can escape the pressure on a regular basis.
Also, Indy is great defending the run, but they weren’t nearly as good against the pass where they finished in the middle of the pack in terms of passer rating allowed. Now facing a passing team, that could spell trouble for Indianapolis.
The Colts defense overall slowed down as the season progressed. Indeed, they allowed an average of 19.7 points per game through their first nine meetings, while that number increased to 26.4 in the final seven matches.
The Bills defense did the exact opposite and seems to be peaking at the right time. They surrendered 28 points per game in the first six contests versus 21 points over the last 10 games.
The temperature is expected to be below zero degree Celsius this Saturday. Philip Rivers played his entire career in the warm weather of San Diego and Los Angeles before joining the Colts who play in a stadium covered by a dome.
Buffalo wins big and finally gets its first playoff victory since 1995!
Official pick: Bills -6.5
 
WILD CARD GAME #2: LOS ANGELES RAMS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3.5)
I am not going to bet this game, but if I was forced to do it I’d back the Rams here.
The situation at quarterback is unclear for Los Angeles, but the latest reports suggest Jared Goff should be under center.
If he is unable to go, John Wolford will take the field. He did better than expected in a must-win game last week. He’s not as good as Goff as a passer, but he was a threat as a runner.
I also like the fact that the Rams are expected to get three key players back this weekend: wide receiver Cooper Kupp, left tackle Andrew Whitworth and defensive end Michael Brockers.
Seattle’s defense improved a lot late in the season, while L.A.’s defense was strong all season long. This could be a defensive battle, in which case I prefer to go with the underdog.
Still, I am not going to pull the trigger on the Rams. Seattle has won 11 consecutive playoff games when favored. They also post a great 6-1 ATS record in wild card games.
Lean: Rams +3.5
 
WILD CARD GAME #3: TAMPA BAY BUCS (-8.5) AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
I won’t put money at risk in this game either, but I am leaning towards the Bucs.
Alex Smith appeared even more limited than usual last week in Philadelphia, and he really played poorly.
Washington’s running game couldn’t get going all night long, and it led to a bad outing by the offense. Now facing the top run defense in the league, how are they going to score points?
I simply do not trust Alex Smith to light up the scoreboard, especially with his top two threats, Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin, being banged up.
So why am I not betting this game then? There are a few numbers and trends that scare me.
Since 1970, only three teams were road favorites by 6+ points in the playoffs; all of them lost straight up!
Also, the Bucs are 0-4 in primetime games this season. They were really awful in such games.
Finally, the only other two squads qualifying for the postseason despite a losing record both covered in their first playoff game.
Lean: Bucs -8.5
 
WILD CARD GAME #4: BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3 OR -3.5) AT TENNESSEE TITANS
This time we have a pick that I like enough to put money at risk. In this matchup of the two best running attacks in the league, I am betting the Ravens as 3-point favorites.
First, how could I omit mentioning the famous revenge factor, which is largely in favor of Baltimore? Not only did they lose 30-to-24 in overtime back in Week 11, but the Ravens were ousted from the playoffs last year by those same Titans by a 28-to-12 score.
Both of these games occurred in Baltimore. The Ravens will be fired up to avenge those losses, and they won’t slow down even if they take the lead this Saturday.
The Baltimore train has been picking up some steam recently. John Harbaugh’s team has beaten the spread in each of their final six games. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS over the past six road playoff games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in January.
A piece of information that may be flying under the radar is the fact that Tennessee has three offensive linemen listed as questionable: Rodger Saffold, Ben Jones and Dennis Kelly. Even if they all suit up this Sunday, they are nicked up and could struggle against a tough Baltimore front.
If you like betting totals, you may consider grabbing the over for two reasons. All five times that the Titans were underdogs this year, the game went over the total. Secondly, this will be just the third time that a wild card game has a total of 55 points or more. In the previous two instances, the game ended with exactly 73 points scored.
Official pick: Ravens -3
Lean: Over 55
 
WILD CARD GAME #5: CHICAGO BEARS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-10)
This is the third pick that I like enough to call it an “official” pick: I’m grabbing the Saints as 10-point favorites.
The Bears have a fairly weak offensive line, so they are likely to struggle against the ferocious Saints defense.
Also, Chicago is likely to miss a key piece of their defense due to injury: linebacker Roquan Smith. He exited the regular season finale against the Packers with an elbow injury. It looks like he dislocated his elbow and probably won’t be available this weekend.
Meanwhile, the Saints have a good shot to get both Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas on the field. That should be a big boost to their offense.
There are several statistics favoring New Orleans:
Since 2011, double-digit favorites are 7-1 ATS in playoff games;
The Bears are 0-4 ATS over the last two years as underdogs of 6 points or more;
Chicago is 0-6 ATS on the road when facing a team with a winning record;
Da Bears have a disappointing 6-18 ATS record after a double-digit home loss;
The Saints are 4-0 ATS following a win by at least 14 points.
Based on these arguments, I’m taking the Saints but for some reason I remain cautious and won’t go big on this one. I still prefer Buffalo and Baltimore this week.
Official pick: Saints -10
 
WILD CARD GAME #6: CLEVELAND BROWNS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6)
I am clearly avoiding this game. Way too many uncertainties surrounding this game.
The Browns had some COVID-19 cases, which will prevent head coach Kevin Stefanski, star left guard Joel Bitonio and defensive end Olivier Vernon from taking the field.
Other guys are uncertain to suit up this Sunday, including three offensive linemen (Tretter, Teller, Conklin) and a couple of cornerbacks (Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson). Who will play and who will miss the game? I prefer to avoid putting money at risk on this great AFC North matchup.
The only wager I could consider making is betting the over. Why? The over has gone 9-1 with Big Ben under center in home playoff games. Also, the over is 11-3 when teams meet two weeks in a row.
Lean: Over 47.5

 
This should be a fantastic weekend of football, so enjoy it guys! I’ll be back next week for more betting tips for the Divisional Round.
Best of luck with your plays!
Professor MJ
 
https://youtu.be/KC2UYTUySLI

Written Wednesday December 23rd, 2020 at 1 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
After a series of five straight weeks without a negative record against the spread (ATS), we underwent a bad Week 15. Indeed, we went 0-2-1, including the 5-star pick that lost badly.
I certainly did not expect the Steelers to play that poorly against a weak division rival on national television after losing two consecutive games. That was an awful performance by Pittsburgh.
It was a reminder that we cannot win every week! Losing runs are inevitable in the sports betting industry, unfortunately!
Let’s roll up our sleeves and get back on the winning track right away!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): CHICAGO BEARS -7.5 AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Chicago is 5-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more. They are clearly surging and the light has turned on for Mitchell Trubisky. After crushing the Texans, Da Bears pulled off the upset in Minnesota last week.
Trubisky has completed more than 70% of his passes in each of his last three outings, which is impressive! During this time period, he has tossed 5 TD passes versus a single interception. He is also a decent runner, when necessary. There is no reason to believe he cannot do it again when facing a vulnerable Jags defense.
Another guy that has been on fire lately is running back David Montgomery. He has averaged 109 rushing yards over his past four games, while scoring a total of six touchdowns. His yards-per-carry average during these four meetings has been even more impressive: a whopping 6.1!
The Bears defense remains a steady force and they should create problems to whatever quarterback will be under center for Jacksonville. I believe Chicago wins this one by a good margin.
PICK #2 (2 STARS): PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2 VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Enough is enough. The bad streak must end for Mike Tomlin’s squad.
In what should be a fairly cold day in Pittsburgh, I could see Philip Rivers struggling, especially considering he is not mobile and about to face a feisty pass rush. Indianapolis will be forced to make quick throws, which will make them more predictable.
The Steelers are showing a great 15-4-2 ATS record in their last 21 games as home underdogs. That’s pretty convincing!
Meanwhile, Indy has beaten the spread just once in their last five trips to Pittsburgh.
Big Ben looked awful last week and he is now facing a pretty tough Colts defense. However, Indianapolis is better defending the run, but the Steelers happen to throw the ball very often.
I think the Steelers outlast the Colts in a tough, physical and low-scoring game.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -2 AT DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys run defense ranks dead last in rushing yards allowed per carry. As for Philly, they hold the second-best yards-per-rush average in the entire league. That’s a good recipe for success, especially after switching from Carson Wentz to Jalen Hurts, the latter being a much more dangerous QB as a runner.
Hurts has really been impressive in his first two starts with 4 TD passes and zero interception, while rushing for an average of 84.5 yards per game in those matches. And that included a game against the stout Saints defense!
The Cowboys have a good trio of receivers, but Dalton has been fairly inconsistent. He has a low yards per attempt average and he missed many easy throws last weekend. Also, Philadelphia’s defense is a notch better than Dallas’, and their front four should give problems to the Cowboys offensive line.
The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs, but 1-4 ATS following a straight up win.
One interesting statistic: during the last 10 meetings between these two clubs, the favorite has beaten the spread eight times.
Ultimately, I trust Jalen Hurts to be able to extend drives both with his arm and his legs more than Andy Dalton. Philly takes this game.
PICK #4 (1 STAR): NEW YORK JETS +9.5 VS CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Jets are coming off a stunning upset win over the Rams last week, so many people will anticipate a letdown here. I don’t expect New York to come up with another victory, but this spread seems pretty high to me.
The Browns have more incentive for sure, but they will be on the road for the fourth time in five weeks. Cleveland has beaten the spread just once over the last seven contests where they were road favorites.
Meanwhile, the Jets present a nice 9-3-1 ATS record at home against teams with a winning record. You might also be surprised to hear New York has beaten the spread in four of their last five games in December.
Cleveland relies a lot on its running game on offense. That’s good news for the Jets, whose run defense ranks 8th in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per carry. It will come down to whether they can slow down Baker Mayfield, who has been on a roll. He is susceptible to making mistakes, though.
Crowder, Perriman and Mims are good enough to allow the Jets offense to move the ball against an average Cleveland defense. Running back Ty Johnson has also provided a good spark on some plays for New York.
I like New York to keep it within 9 points.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
For entertainment purposes, here are some leans for you:
LEAN #1: Texans -8.5 vs Bengals (Cincy won’t play with the same intensity after a hard-fought game in Pittsburgh last Monday, they also lose one day of rest from playing Monday, Texans mad after losing two close calls against the Colts recently, Houston holds an 8-2 ATS record in the last 10 meetings with the Bengals);
LEAN #2: Titans +3.5 at Packers (I don’t feel good at all fading Aaron Rodgers in a primetime game, especially with one extra day of rest and after being at home in four of the past five weeks, but I’m still going to do it. Packers are 1-6 ATS after an outright win, while Tennessee is 7-1 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record);

 
Merry Christmas to all of you!!! I am super grateful to have such great followers like you!!
Professor MJ
https://youtu.be/nMWjWPEhzCI

Written Wednesday December 23rd, 2020 at 1 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
After a series of five straight weeks without a negative record against the spread (ATS), we underwent a bad Week 15. Indeed, we went 0-2-1, including the 5-star pick that lost badly.
I certainly did not expect the Steelers to play that poorly against a weak division rival on national television after losing two consecutive games. That was an awful performance by Pittsburgh.
It was a reminder that we cannot win every week! Losing runs are inevitable in the sports betting industry, unfortunately!
Let’s roll up our sleeves and get back on the winning track right away!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): CHICAGO BEARS -7.5 AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Chicago is 5-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more. They are clearly surging and the light has turned on for Mitchell Trubisky. After crushing the Texans, Da Bears pulled off the upset in Minnesota last week.
Trubisky has completed more than 70% of his passes in each of his last three outings, which is impressive! During this time period, he has tossed 5 TD passes versus a single interception. He is also a decent runner, when necessary. There is no reason to believe he cannot do it again when facing a vulnerable Jags defense.
Another guy that has been on fire lately is running back David Montgomery. He has averaged 109 rushing yards over his past four games, while scoring a total of six touchdowns. His yards-per-carry average during these four meetings has been even more impressive: a whopping 6.1!
The Bears defense remains a steady force and they should create problems to whatever quarterback will be under center for Jacksonville. I believe Chicago wins this one by a good margin.
PICK #2 (2 STARS): PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2 VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Enough is enough. The bad streak must end for Mike Tomlin’s squad.
In what should be a fairly cold day in Pittsburgh, I could see Philip Rivers struggling, especially considering he is not mobile and about to face a feisty pass rush. Indianapolis will be forced to make quick throws, which will make them more predictable.
The Steelers are showing a great 15-4-2 ATS record in their last 21 games as home underdogs. That’s pretty convincing!
Meanwhile, Indy has beaten the spread just once in their last five trips to Pittsburgh.
Big Ben looked awful last week and he is now facing a pretty tough Colts defense. However, Indianapolis is better defending the run, but the Steelers happen to throw the ball very often.
I think the Steelers outlast the Colts in a tough, physical and low-scoring game.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -2 AT DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys run defense ranks dead last in rushing yards allowed per carry. As for Philly, they hold the second-best yards-per-rush average in the entire league. That’s a good recipe for success, especially after switching from Carson Wentz to Jalen Hurts, the latter being a much more dangerous QB as a runner.
Hurts has really been impressive in his first two starts with 4 TD passes and zero interception, while rushing for an average of 84.5 yards per game in those matches. And that included a game against the stout Saints defense!
The Cowboys have a good trio of receivers, but Dalton has been fairly inconsistent. He has a low yards per attempt average and he missed many easy throws last weekend. Also, Philadelphia’s defense is a notch better than Dallas’, and their front four should give problems to the Cowboys offensive line.
The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs, but 1-4 ATS following a straight up win.
One interesting statistic: during the last 10 meetings between these two clubs, the favorite has beaten the spread eight times.
Ultimately, I trust Jalen Hurts to be able to extend drives both with his arm and his legs more than Andy Dalton. Philly takes this game.
PICK #4 (1 STAR): NEW YORK JETS +9.5 VS CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Jets are coming off a stunning upset win over the Rams last week, so many people will anticipate a letdown here. I don’t expect New York to come up with another victory, but this spread seems pretty high to me.
The Browns have more incentive for sure, but they will be on the road for the fourth time in five weeks. Cleveland has beaten the spread just once over the last seven contests where they were road favorites.
Meanwhile, the Jets present a nice 9-3-1 ATS record at home against teams with a winning record. You might also be surprised to hear New York has beaten the spread in four of their last five games in December.
Cleveland relies a lot on its running game on offense. That’s good news for the Jets, whose run defense ranks 8th in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per carry. It will come down to whether they can slow down Baker Mayfield, who has been on a roll. He is susceptible to making mistakes, though.
Crowder, Perriman and Mims are good enough to allow the Jets offense to move the ball against an average Cleveland defense. Running back Ty Johnson has also provided a good spark on some plays for New York.
I like New York to keep it within 9 points.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
For entertainment purposes, here are some leans for you:
LEAN #1: Texans -8.5 vs Bengals (Cincy won’t play with the same intensity after a hard-fought game in Pittsburgh last Monday, they also lose one day of rest from playing Monday, Texans mad after losing two close calls against the Colts recently, Houston holds an 8-2 ATS record in the last 10 meetings with the Bengals);
LEAN #2: Titans +3.5 at Packers (I don’t feel good at all fading Aaron Rodgers in a primetime game, especially with one extra day of rest and after being at home in four of the past five weeks, but I’m still going to do it. Packers are 1-6 ATS after an outright win, while Tennessee is 7-1 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record);

 
Merry Christmas to all of you!!! I am super grateful to have such great followers like you!!
Professor MJ
https://youtu.be/nMWjWPEhzCI

Written Thursday December 25th, 2020 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
 
Last week, we had a couple of 5-star picks, which was highly unusual!
Bucs +3.5 vs Chiefs (won the bet, but deserved to lose in my opinion);
Giants -5.5 at Bengals (lost the bet, but we got screwed by: a) Daniel Jones’ injury; b) a TD on a kickoff return by Cincy; c) a bogus PI penalty that allowed a garbage TD late in the fourth quarter).
Our record on 5-star picks:
3-2 this season
8-4 past three years
Overall, last week was a lucrative one: a 4-2 record on official picks and a perfect 2-0 on leans.
We have been on fire recently with a 10-5-2 ATS record since Week 10.
Let’s keep rolling, folks!!!
 
PICK #1 (4 STARS): CLEVELAND BROWNS +6 AT TENNESSEE TITANS
I’ve said it a few times this year, and I’ll say it again. In my opinion, the Titans are a good team to bet as underdogs, but they’re a good team to fade as favorites. As a matter of fact, they have beaten the spread just two times the last seven games they were established as favorites.
My main concern about this game is Cleveland’s pass defense. They were already without Greedy Williams, and now their other starting cornerback Denzel Ward seems on the wrong side of questionable for Sunday. That could open up the field for A.J. Brown.
Other than that, I like the Browns here. To me, the spread is way too high. Cleveland should be fine running the ball against Tennessee, whose defense has been average. Meanwhile, the Browns are fairly strong defending the run and they are welcoming back stud defensive end Myles Garrett this weekend.
The revenge factor comes into play as well. I’m sure Baker Mayfield and company remember last year’s season opener, a game in which Cleveland got hammered 43-to-13 at home against Tennessee. Mayfield threw three interceptions in that game, but that won’t happen this time.
For these reasons, I’m backing Cleveland as 6-point underdogs as my top play in Week 13.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +1 VS BUFFALO BILLS
San Francisco’s defense is quickly getting back to form. After undergoing a rash of injuries, they have gotten some players back, which has shown on the field. Last week, they bottled up a good Rams offense and allowed just 14 first downs.
Buffalo QB Josh Allen usually makes a mix of great and bad plays. I expect him to make a few mistakes that will cost his team this Monday. He is also still missing wide receiver John Brown; the offense is good, but not as great when Brown is out of the lineup.
I have spoken a few times this year about how researchers have shown that peak athletic performance occurs during the late afternoon or early evening. For this reason, a West Coast team gets an advantage when playing a night game against a team from the East Coast.
Each team’s record on Monday Night Football is at opposite ends: Buffalo is 0-3-1 ATS versus 13-3 for the Niners. San Francisco also holds an impressive 7-3 ATS record at home when facing a team with a winning record.
The key to this game will be San Francisco’s running game who should be able to exploit a weak Buffalo run defense, who ranks 27th in the league in terms of yards allowed per carry. With Raheem Mostert back from an injury, I believe he will run wild and cause headaches to the Bills.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): LOS ANGELES RAMS -2.5 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
Kyler Murray’s throwing shoulder is hurt. He didn’t look as sharp as usual last week in New England. Coincidence or not, he ran for a season-low five times both of the past two weeks. I suspect he doesn’t want to take more hits to lower the risk of aggravating his injury.
After a hot start, the Cards are definitely stumbling. They have won just one of their last four matchups, and the lone win should have been a loss, if not for a miracle Hail Mary pass on the last play of the game against the Bills.
Jared Goff tends to struggle when he feels pressure, otherwise he is super efficient. I expect him to have a clean pocket this Sunday, given Arizona’s pass rush who is not that great.
I also like the three-headed monster at the running back position for the Rams: Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown and rookie Cam Akers.
Los Angeles has rebounded with a win after each of their three losses in 2020. Also note that the Rams have beaten the spread the last five times they made a trip to Arizona.
Another reason for taking the Rams in this contest is the mismatch on defense. Los Angeles’ defense has been great, both against the run and the pass. As for Arizona, they have a middle of the pack defense.
PICK #4 (2 STARS): INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3 AT HOUSTON TEXANS
The Colts are not intimidated from playing in Houston at all: they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight meetings there.
Indy is also a team that can rebound nicely after poor performances. Indeed, they have posted an incredible 6-0-1 ATS record after double-digit home losses. Last week, they got beaten up 45-26 against the Titans.
I am aware that the Texans will benefit from three additional days of rest after playing on Thanksgiving, but the team suffered a HUGE blow when their top wide receiver (Will Fuller V) and their top cornerback (Bradley Roby) got hit with six-game suspensions for violating the league’s PEDs policy. With Randall Cobb already out and Kenny Stills being waived about a week ago, that will put the wide receiver depth to the test.
I expect Indy’s defense to respond strongly after such a poor outing last week. With Deshaun Watson having less weapons at his disposal, he’ll need to do a Superman impersonation in order to keep his team afloat. I don’t think it will happen.
Houston’s defense has been awful both against the run and the pass, while the Colts should get running back Jonathan Taylor back. I am worried about the Colts possibly being without their star left tackle Anthony Castonzo, but I’m still putting my money on Indy to do everything they can to keep up with the Titans for the AFC South title.
PICK #5 (2 STARS): SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -10 VS NEW YORK GIANTS
Last Monday, I posted an alert in my Facebook group and to people on my mailing list about a great bargain. The Seahawks were tagged as 7.5-point favorites at Bet365 at the time, while some bookies had a line of 10 points. I put a fairly big bet, then I let everyone know about this nice deal, and the line moved to 9, and then 10 points within an hour. No matter if the bet wins or loses, this was clearly a good value wager.
Now that the dust has settled, I still think Seattle -10 points is an enticing play. According to the latest reports, Daniel Jones seems unlikely to play. His backup, Colt McCoy, is simply horrible. He’s been bad throughout his 11-year career, and that’s not about to change. He couldn’t get the offense going last week against a weak Cincinnati defense.
I love how Seattle matches up well with the Giants. With McCoy under center, New York will need their running game to get going, but that should prove very difficult considering the Seahawks defense is 3rd in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per carry. That will force McCoy into long third downs, and the result will be catastrophic.
On the other side of the ball, New York’s strength on defense is its run defense. Unfortunately for them, Seattle has a guy named Russell Wilson at quarterback who is ready to shred their pass defense.
Seattle wins by at least two touchdowns and beats the spread.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
For entertainment purposes, here are some leans for you:
LEAN #1: Chargers +1 vs Patriots (This is a passing league, and there is a huge gap between New England’s and Los Angeles’ passing offenses. Cam Newton is banged up and his team will be travelling through three time zones to play this game.);
LEAN #2: Broncos +14 at Chiefs (The weakness of K.C.’s defense is its run defense, so I think Denver can find a way to run efficiently and run out the clock a little bit. On the other side of the ball, Denver’s pass defense is among the top 10 and could limit the damage against Mahomes and company. The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Chiefs, but they are a perfect 7-0 ATS after scoring 14 points or less! Drew Lock will be back under center.);
LEAN #3: Dolphins -11 vs Bengals (I hope Ryan Fitzpatrick remains the starter because he is better than Tua right now. Good luck to QB Brandon Allen against a stifling Dolphins pass defense! Miami could welcome back running backs Myles Gaskin and/or Salvon Ahmed);
LEAN #4: Washington +8.5 at Steelers (Pittsburgh is not nearly as good as its record indicate. Man, they played badly against the Ravens last Wednesday! Washington is fighting hard every week and they are playing sound football for head coach Ron Rivera. It won’t be an easy task for the Steelers to beat them by 9 points or more).

 
A big thank you for reading this column every week, I hope to help you beat your bookie!
Professor MJ
https://youtu.be/7RFlJpe3P4E

Written Tuesday November 10th, 2020 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
A dreadful 0-3 performance for the picks last week. Ouch!
That does not shake my confidence at all. Bad weeks will invariably occur every season; they are part of the sports betting game.
Never go too high during winning streaks and never go too low in bad times.
Let’s roll up our sleeves and get back on the winning track! Here are 4 picks for you.
PICK #1 (4 STARS): PITTSBURGH STEELERS -3.5 FIRST HALF VS CINCINNATI BENGALS
The news that Ben Roethlisberger was placed on the COVID-19 list broke not very long before I posted this article. The line might change depending on Big Ben’s status, but no matter what I’ll take Pittsburgh in the first half. If he misses the game, the spread will be smaller, obviously.
Some factors that I regularly look at are favoring the Bengals. First, the rest factor. Cincy is coming off its bye week, but statistical studies have shown that the best NFL teams use this extra time much more efficiently than weaker ones. Since the Bengals are not among the top tier, the bye week effect won’t be as large.
Secondly, there’s the revenge factor. The Bengals lost both meetings to Pittsburgh last year.
Also, big road underdogs who have been established underdogs for 4+ straight games have done well against the spread in the past.
So why the heck am I taking the Steelers? And why for the first half only?
Pittsburgh had a letdown game in Dallas last week. They took the Cowboys lightly and needed a late comeback to secure the win.
Now facing a division rival, head coach Mike Tomlin will make sure his big boys will be storming out of the gate. I expect a fast start from his squad.
I prefer taking Pittsburgh in the first half because Joe Burrow is capable of scoring 1-2 touchdown(s) late in the fourth quarter to cover the spread after trailing by a good margin.
In the last 9 matchups where the Steelers were at home facing a team with a losing record, they beat the spread on 7 occasions.
No need to remind me that Cincy lost four games by a 5-point margin or less, nor that Pittsburgh won four games by that same margin. I am aware that both teams have been involved in many tight games. That’s precisely why many people will jump on the Bengals train.
However, on paper we have a huge mismatch favoring the home team on both sides of the ball, and yet that home team was only a touchdown favorite before the line went off the board after the Roethlisberger news (which means it will be even lower if he’s out).
Defensively, Cincy ranks dead last in yards-per-carry average allowed, while Pittsburgh is 9th in that category. As for opposing team’s passer rating, the Bengals rank 13th versus 2nd for the Steelers.
On offense, I like what Joe Burrow has done but he’s still a rookie about to face a tough defense. Remember what happened when he faced the Ravens’ defense in a 27-to-3 loss.
To make matters worse, 4 out of the 5 Bengals starting offensive linemen are listed as questionable. You don’t want your offensive line being banged up when facing Pittsburgh’s stout defense.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): BUFFALO BILLS +2 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
Is the Bills defense back to its 2018 and 2019 form where they were a top five unit?
Not yet, but they took nice steps last week. That might sound weird after allowing 34 points, but that was against the potent Seahawks offense. Buffalo’s defense was able to pressure Russell Wilson and he ended the game with his worst QB rating of the 2020 season.
On Arizona’s side, their defense was supposed to be pretty weak this year, but they have done a fine job thus far. I’m afraid they might regress, and having two starting cornerbacks, Byron Murphy and Dre Kirkpatrick, listed as questionable is worrisome when you are about to face the great WR trio of Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley.
You may want to keep an eye on the injury status of stud cornerback Tre’Davious White, though. He left the game against Seattle with an ankle injury and did not return. Head coach Sean McDermott called it a day-to-day injury, so I feel like he’s more likely to suit up than not.
Over their last 8 meetings as road underdogs, the Bills hold a nice 5-1-2 ATS record.
Meanwhile, Arizona has beaten the spread just once in the past six games where they were home favorites.
The Cards are at home for the fourth straight week, which boosts their chances of getting the victory. But could they be looking ahead to a critical meeting with the Seahawks next week?
In summary, I like Buffalo to pick up their eighth win of the season as small underdogs.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): LOS ANGELES RAMS -1.5 VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
After a very hot start to the 2020 season where many experts were calling him the league’s MVP (deservedly so), Russell Wilson has been struggling a bit.
Wilson’s three worst games, in terms of QB rating, occurred in the last four games. During this time frame, he posted a 12-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio, which is far worse than the 16-to-2 ratio he racked up in the first four matches.
The Cards and the Bills have shown how to disrupt Wilson. You must blitz and put pressure on him. Aaron Donald and company have sacked opposing quarterbacks 25 times, fifth-highest in the NFL.
Jared Goff is extremely good when given time to scan the field, especially with such great weapons as Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. However, when Goff is feeling pressure, he is really awful and he doesn’t seem to know how to escape.
Which of these two scenarios is the most likely this Sunday? Considering Seattle’s ineptitude to rush opposing QBs this year, Goff has a good chance to have a clean pocket most of the time. L.A.’s offensive line has been nothing short of outstanding in 2020, allowing the second-fewest sacks this year despite having a QB who is not mobile at all.
Also note that the Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to Los Angeles.
The Rams will be well-prepared coming off their bye week. They are also very likely to welcome back on the field their top cornerback, Jalen Ramsey, and their top running back, Darrell Henderson.
Los Angeles holds a good 5-1-1 ATS record coming off a straight up loss (they were beaten by the Dolphins before their bye week). And they post an identical ATS record in their past seven games as home favorites.
As if Seattle’s defense needed more bad news, their top two cornerbacks are listed as questionable: Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar. They might also be without linebacker K.J. Wright, who sprained his ankle in Buffalo last week. Finally, Seattle’s top two running backs, Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde, are still uncertain to suit up.
PICK #4 (2 STARS): CLEVELAND BROWNS -3 VS HOUSTON TEXANS
Favorites off their bye week have posted a 36-20-4 ATS record over a four-year span. That’s one of the reasons I’m backing the Browns this weekend. They will also be at home for the third straight week.
Houston’s defense is just dreadful. They are 31st in yards-per-carry average and 32nd in opposing QBs’ passer rating. It doesn’t get any worse than this.
Sure, the Texans passing offense is capable of putting up points on the board. Their offensive line is suspect, though. Myles Garrett is licking his chops right now and he could have a huge day. As for the Browns, they quietly have one of the best offensive lines in football.
Odell Beckham is done for the season, but Nick Chubb could return to the lineup this Sunday, as well as right guard Wyatt Teller.
The Texans had five guys departing the previous game due to injuries, including linebacker Brennan Scarlett who broke his arm and running back David Johnson who suffered a concussion.
Houston is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with Cleveland, but they are 8-20 ATS on the road when facing a team with a winning record. They have also struggled on games played on grass, as shown by their 0-5-1 ATS record recently.
PICK #5 (1 STAR): CHICAGO BEARS +3 (@ -115 odds, Pinnacle) VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS
You can either take Chicago +3 at lower odds or +2.5 at higher odds. I recommend taking the former.
The Vikings have been struggling against Da Bears recently; they are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings between these two squads. Over their last 17 trips to the windy city, they beat the spread just three times and lost on 14 occasions.
The difference in Monday night performances between the two teams is staggering. On one hand, Minnesota is 2-12 ATS in such primetime games, while Chicago holds a 4-1 ATS record.
Moreover, the Bears have posted a 13-4-1 ATS record the last 18 times they were home dogs. That’s remarkable!
Let me tell you about a betting strategy that favors Chicago in this matchup:
Bet against a team that intercepted 3+ passes in its previous game, unless that team has a great passing offense and defense.
Last week, Minnesota picked off the Lions’ quarterbacks three times.
That being said, when a team intercepts many passes during a game, I believe there are two possibilities:
1. This team has a great passing attack, forcing its opponent to take chances, which creates more takeaways.
2. This team picked off many passes due to “good luck” more than defensive skill.
Do the Vikings fit in the mold of scenario #1? I don’t think so! Both of their offensive and defensive passing games are not great. Racking up three interceptions was much more likely an outlier than anything else.
From 2013 to Week #7 of the 2020 season, teams that intercepted 3+ passes in their previous contest and were now either underdogs or “small” favorites (i.e. 5 points or less) are 62-81-2 ATS, a 43% win percentage.
I’m going with the Bears to upset the Vikings on Monday Night Football.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
Want two quick leans for this weekend?
a) Jaguars +14 at Packers (seems like a trap game for Green Bay, much like the Steelers in Dallas last week, especially after facing two big rivals in Minnesota and San Francisco);
b) Eagles -3 at Giants (Philly is 10-3 ATS in their past 13 visits in New York, while the G-Men are just 2-12 ATS as home underdogs. However, it could be payback time after a heart-breaking 22-21 loss by New York versus the Eagles in Week 7. The Eagles are coming off their bye week).
Let’s crush it this week, fellows!!!
Professor MJ

Written Tuesday November 10th, 2020 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
A dreadful 0-3 performance for the picks last week. Ouch!
That does not shake my confidence at all. Bad weeks will invariably occur every season; they are part of the sports betting game.
Never go too high during winning streaks and never go too low in bad times.
Let’s roll up our sleeves and get back on the winning track! Here are 4 picks for you.
PICK #1 (4 STARS): PITTSBURGH STEELERS -3.5 FIRST HALF VS CINCINNATI BENGALS
The news that Ben Roethlisberger was placed on the COVID-19 list broke not very long before I posted this article. The line might change depending on Big Ben’s status, but no matter what I’ll take Pittsburgh in the first half. If he misses the game, the spread will be smaller, obviously.
Some factors that I regularly look at are favoring the Bengals. First, the rest factor. Cincy is coming off its bye week, but statistical studies have shown that the best NFL teams use this extra time much more efficiently than weaker ones. Since the Bengals are not among the top tier, the bye week effect won’t be as large.
Secondly, there’s the revenge factor. The Bengals lost both meetings to Pittsburgh last year.
Also, big road underdogs who have been established underdogs for 4+ straight games have done well against the spread in the past.
So why the heck am I taking the Steelers? And why for the first half only?
Pittsburgh had a letdown game in Dallas last week. They took the Cowboys lightly and needed a late comeback to secure the win.
Now facing a division rival, head coach Mike Tomlin will make sure his big boys will be storming out of the gate. I expect a fast start from his squad.
I prefer taking Pittsburgh in the first half because Joe Burrow is capable of scoring 1-2 touchdown(s) late in the fourth quarter to cover the spread after trailing by a good margin.
In the last 9 matchups where the Steelers were at home facing a team with a losing record, they beat the spread on 7 occasions.
No need to remind me that Cincy lost four games by a 5-point margin or less, nor that Pittsburgh won four games by that same margin. I am aware that both teams have been involved in many tight games. That’s precisely why many people will jump on the Bengals train.
However, on paper we have a huge mismatch favoring the home team on both sides of the ball, and yet that home team was only a touchdown favorite before the line went off the board after the Roethlisberger news (which means it will be even lower if he’s out).
Defensively, Cincy ranks dead last in yards-per-carry average allowed, while Pittsburgh is 9th in that category. As for opposing team’s passer rating, the Bengals rank 13th versus 2nd for the Steelers.
On offense, I like what Joe Burrow has done but he’s still a rookie about to face a tough defense. Remember what happened when he faced the Ravens’ defense in a 27-to-3 loss.
To make matters worse, 4 out of the 5 Bengals starting offensive linemen are listed as questionable. You don’t want your offensive line being banged up when facing Pittsburgh’s stout defense.
PICK #2 (3 STARS): BUFFALO BILLS +2 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
Is the Bills defense back to its 2018 and 2019 form where they were a top five unit?
Not yet, but they took nice steps last week. That might sound weird after allowing 34 points, but that was against the potent Seahawks offense. Buffalo’s defense was able to pressure Russell Wilson and he ended the game with his worst QB rating of the 2020 season.
On Arizona’s side, their defense was supposed to be pretty weak this year, but they have done a fine job thus far. I’m afraid they might regress, and having two starting cornerbacks, Byron Murphy and Dre Kirkpatrick, listed as questionable is worrisome when you are about to face the great WR trio of Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley.
You may want to keep an eye on the injury status of stud cornerback Tre’Davious White, though. He left the game against Seattle with an ankle injury and did not return. Head coach Sean McDermott called it a day-to-day injury, so I feel like he’s more likely to suit up than not.
Over their last 8 meetings as road underdogs, the Bills hold a nice 5-1-2 ATS record.
Meanwhile, Arizona has beaten the spread just once in the past six games where they were home favorites.
The Cards are at home for the fourth straight week, which boosts their chances of getting the victory. But could they be looking ahead to a critical meeting with the Seahawks next week?
In summary, I like Buffalo to pick up their eighth win of the season as small underdogs.
PICK #3 (3 STARS): LOS ANGELES RAMS -1.5 VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
After a very hot start to the 2020 season where many experts were calling him the league’s MVP (deservedly so), Russell Wilson has been struggling a bit.
Wilson’s three worst games, in terms of QB rating, occurred in the last four games. During this time frame, he posted a 12-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio, which is far worse than the 16-to-2 ratio he racked up in the first four matches.
The Cards and the Bills have shown how to disrupt Wilson. You must blitz and put pressure on him. Aaron Donald and company have sacked opposing quarterbacks 25 times, fifth-highest in the NFL.
Jared Goff is extremely good when given time to scan the field, especially with such great weapons as Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. However, when Goff is feeling pressure, he is really awful and he doesn’t seem to know how to escape.
Which of these two scenarios is the most likely this Sunday? Considering Seattle’s ineptitude to rush opposing QBs this year, Goff has a good chance to have a clean pocket most of the time. L.A.’s offensive line has been nothing short of outstanding in 2020, allowing the second-fewest sacks this year despite having a QB who is not mobile at all.
Also note that the Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to Los Angeles.
The Rams will be well-prepared coming off their bye week. They are also very likely to welcome back on the field their top cornerback, Jalen Ramsey, and their top running back, Darrell Henderson.
Los Angeles holds a good 5-1-1 ATS record coming off a straight up loss (they were beaten by the Dolphins before their bye week). And they post an identical ATS record in their past seven games as home favorites.
As if Seattle’s defense needed more bad news, their top two cornerbacks are listed as questionable: Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar. They might also be without linebacker K.J. Wright, who sprained his ankle in Buffalo last week. Finally, Seattle’s top two running backs, Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde, are still uncertain to suit up.
PICK #4 (2 STARS): CLEVELAND BROWNS -3 VS HOUSTON TEXANS
Favorites off their bye week have posted a 36-20-4 ATS record over a four-year span. That’s one of the reasons I’m backing the Browns this weekend. They will also be at home for the third straight week.
Houston’s defense is just dreadful. They are 31st in yards-per-carry average and 32nd in opposing QBs’ passer rating. It doesn’t get any worse than this.
Sure, the Texans passing offense is capable of putting up points on the board. Their offensive line is suspect, though. Myles Garrett is licking his chops right now and he could have a huge day. As for the Browns, they quietly have one of the best offensive lines in football.
Odell Beckham is done for the season, but Nick Chubb could return to the lineup this Sunday, as well as right guard Wyatt Teller.
The Texans had five guys departing the previous game due to injuries, including linebacker Brennan Scarlett who broke his arm and running back David Johnson who suffered a concussion.
Houston is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with Cleveland, but they are 8-20 ATS on the road when facing a team with a winning record. They have also struggled on games played on grass, as shown by their 0-5-1 ATS record recently.
PICK #5 (1 STAR): CHICAGO BEARS +3 (@ -115 odds, Pinnacle) VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS
You can either take Chicago +3 at lower odds or +2.5 at higher odds. I recommend taking the former.
The Vikings have been struggling against Da Bears recently; they are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings between these two squads. Over their last 17 trips to the windy city, they beat the spread just three times and lost on 14 occasions.
The difference in Monday night performances between the two teams is staggering. On one hand, Minnesota is 2-12 ATS in such primetime games, while Chicago holds a 4-1 ATS record.
Moreover, the Bears have posted a 13-4-1 ATS record the last 18 times they were home dogs. That’s remarkable!
Let me tell you about a betting strategy that favors Chicago in this matchup:
Bet against a team that intercepted 3+ passes in its previous game, unless that team has a great passing offense and defense.
Last week, Minnesota picked off the Lions’ quarterbacks three times.
That being said, when a team intercepts many passes during a game, I believe there are two possibilities:
1. This team has a great passing attack, forcing its opponent to take chances, which creates more takeaways.
2. This team picked off many passes due to “good luck” more than defensive skill.
Do the Vikings fit in the mold of scenario #1? I don’t think so! Both of their offensive and defensive passing games are not great. Racking up three interceptions was much more likely an outlier than anything else.
From 2013 to Week #7 of the 2020 season, teams that intercepted 3+ passes in their previous contest and were now either underdogs or “small” favorites (i.e. 5 points or less) are 62-81-2 ATS, a 43% win percentage.
I’m going with the Bears to upset the Vikings on Monday Night Football.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
Want two quick leans for this weekend?
a) Jaguars +14 at Packers (seems like a trap game for Green Bay, much like the Steelers in Dallas last week, especially after facing two big rivals in Minnesota and San Francisco);
b) Eagles -3 at Giants (Philly is 10-3 ATS in their past 13 visits in New York, while the G-Men are just 2-12 ATS as home underdogs. However, it could be payback time after a heart-breaking 22-21 loss by New York versus the Eagles in Week 7. The Eagles are coming off their bye week).
Let’s crush it this week, fellows!!!
Professor MJ