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LeMale

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Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    LeMale reacted to justanotherpunter in Naps - Wednesday 19th April   
    Kempton            7.30    Full Prime             7/1 win W Hill
  2. Like
    LeMale reacted to Kingdom for in Naps - Wednesday 19th April   
    Beverley 16:00 Flash Bardot 12/1 EW WilliamHill
  3. Like
    LeMale reacted to Gary66 in Naps - Wednesday 19th April   
    3-35 new mammas girl 28/1 365 win only
  4. Like
    LeMale reacted to Cash Out Kev in Naps - Wednesday 19th April   
    335n mammas girl
    ew 33/1 paddy power
  5. Haha
    LeMale reacted to justanotherpunter in DAILY LUCKY 15   
    It's getting too technical in here - so I'll just post these and fade away😃
    Newmarket    4.45    Mubhijah               8/1ew
    Newmarket    5.20    Demilion              10/1ew
    Beverley         5.10    Pearl Eye              13/2ew 4pl
    Beverley         5.40    Miss Calculation    6/1ew
    £3.00 ew lucky15
    potential returns £831.01
  6. Like
    LeMale reacted to tonythepaint in DAILY LUCKY 15   
    Chel 1.30 Captain Tom Cat 13/2 
    Chel 2.05 Lady Adare 11/1 
    New 1.50 Surely Not 14/1 
    New 2.25 Orazio 9/1 
    Bet 3 : 10p lucky 15 with 888 
    Running total -£2.52 
    Double up today
    Profit today £16 
    Running total+£13.48
  7. Like
    LeMale reacted to LEE-GRAYS in Naps - Wednesday 19th April   
    2.15 Beverley east bank 14/1 e/w bet365
  8. Like
    LeMale reacted to RUG in Naps - Wednesday 19th April   
    Beverley 1415
    East Bank
    23 betvictor 
     
  9. Like
    LeMale reacted to tonythepaint in Naps - Wednesday 19th April   
    New 1.50 Surely Not 14/1 B365
  10. Like
    LeMale reacted to Artie77 in Naps - Tuesday 18th April   
    Five Winds    6.30 Southwell     E/W       33/1 bet365
  11. Like
    LeMale reacted to Mrjol. in Naps - Monday 17th April   
    Kelso 15.20  Saint Arvans 16/1 Bet365
  12. Like
    LeMale reacted to Fist2k8 in Naps - Monday 17th April   
    Azof Des Mottes 6/1 WH   Kelso 2.45
  13. Like
    LeMale reacted to Peter York in Naps - Monday 17th April   
    Replacing non runner please 
    3.00 Redcar
    Maysong - each way (15/2 BetVictor)
  14. Like
    LeMale reacted to LEE-GRAYS in Naps - Monday 17th April   
    1.15 Redcar mistress trite 16/1 e/w bet365
  15. Like
    LeMale reacted to Carole-dawney in Naps - Monday 17th April   
    4.55 Windsor 
    alpha crucis 10/1 e/w bet365 
  16. Like
    LeMale reacted to MCLARKE in DAILY LUCKY 15   
    Too true, I did shoot myself in the foot by winning but I didn't mind !
    I didn't realise that there was a 15% boost for getting 4 winners, this is obviously another benefit
    I'll do a bit of analysis to try and calculate the additional edge of these bets
  17. Like
    LeMale reacted to Zilzalian in DAILY LUCKY 15   
    Lucky 15's 31's 63's
    Lets clarify a few things about Lucky 15's 31's 63's, @MCLARKE will tell you lots of “data” related reasons why you should technically avoid them, he will also put in warnings like “bookies benefit bet,” and how long or how many lifetimes you will need to live before getting one up etc and they are valid points although he just shot himself in the foot with those arguments but they are actually valid but nothing is ever that simple.
    Now here's the thing, you do not need 4 winners or even 3 or 2 for that matter all you need is 1 x 8/1 winner to make a profit due to the double the odds (bet365 for this article) That is why I personally disregard EW on these bets unless the prices are literally huge i.e. all four selections are 16/1 or greater (an obvious exception would be say for example you have a 33/1 14/1 10/1 10/1). An argument could be made for just doing an EW acca in addition to your L15 bet just in case all 4 place.
     
    So that is the basis for your lucky 15, every winner thereafter is more profit so a double is perfectly reasonable (see attached Screenshot) 2 x 8/1 shots is 100/1 for example, 3 x 8/1 shots is 1000/1 and 4 x 8/1 shots is 10,000/1.
     
    Personally I don't do a Lucky 15's daily but sometimes I do more than one so it evens out at around one per day so bear in mind because I do 40p L15's (20p EW on the rarer occasion) at £6 a piece they cost me around £2,000 quid a year (£500 for a 10p L15) and that is how much I would lose if I never had a winner. So I need to return £2000 quid per year before I start to make a profit. My year starts end of flat to end of flat (November – November) I surpassed £2000 returns by the end of December (pretty much proofed on this site if anyone cares to check) so every return I get now is pure profit so that means that my selections can now be any price. I no longer have to meet the 8/1 threshold for my minimum required return I can now include the odd fav in my Lucky 15 if I have a strong fancy.
     
    WARNING.
    I do not or rarely back/copy other peoples bets. Originally on this thread there were just 4 of us so it was a bit of fun as we each picked a geegee each day, however I soon realised that there are dangers involved, the danger being the bookies aint stupid and if they are paying out to multiple players with the same selections on the same bet type they would soon twig and react accordingly PL is a public forum and you can bet your arse they can/do read these threads and it concerns me that people could lose their accounts.

  18. Thanks
    LeMale got a reaction from The Equaliser in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Guessing you've put this in wrong place?
  19. Like
    LeMale reacted to justanotherpunter in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    A welcome reversal of fortune today - 😃
    Tramore    4.35    Brideswell Lad    7/1 £20.00 win 365 - 1st 8/1
    profit £160.00 - total -£13.00
  20. Like
    LeMale reacted to justanotherpunter in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Tramore    4.35    Brideswell Lad    7/1 £20.00 win 365
  21. Like
    LeMale reacted to Trotter in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    3 winning doubles returns 94.00
    P/L + 74.00
    this month (minus 151.00)
    this year (minus 73.50)
  22. Like
    LeMale reacted to Carole-dawney in Naps - Saturday 15th April   
    5.30 Wolverhampton 
    wedgewood 11/2 e/w bet365 
  23. Like
    LeMale reacted to BARNSLEYCHOP in Naps - Saturday 15th April   
    3.00 Aintree
    Irish Point @ 7's bet365
  24. Like
    LeMale reacted to LEE-GRAYS in Naps - Saturday 15th April   
    2.05 Yarmouth elyaytee 33/1 e/w bet365
  25. Like
    LeMale reacted to dj.orange in Naps - Saturday 15th April   
    13:00 Newcastle   Nells Bells   5.5   bet365
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