PercyP
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Posts posted by PercyP
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Munitions 14.55 Longchamp (E.Way 12/1 PP)
Jockey M Barzalona will always be remembered for his early celebration on Pour Moi in the 2011 Derby. This year he and trainer A Fabre have already won 3 Group races together including a Group 3 with this horse. The only concern is the going described as heavy, but Munitions has won two races on good to soft.
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The Last Bridge 20.00 Warwick (Win 10/1 PP)
It’s time for Richard Patrick to save my bacon. Not one winner in ten selections this month, this is harder than I thought. As I have said before the Warwick chase course is one of the most difficult courses in the country. Six of the horses have never experienced these fences before and another two have run over them just once so a line can be put through them all. The Last Bridge form figures over the chase course reads: 2,3,5,1,1,3 and 2 very impressive, he has to be the pick.
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Gang warfare 17.30 Ascot (E.Way 20/1 Bet365)
Trainer Mrs A Dunn is in excellent form having had five wins and four places from her last 20 runners on the flat. A chance is taken with her Gang Warfare who is on the same mark as his last win.
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Molivaliente 17.30 Chelmsford (E.Way 8/1 PP)
In only his second race as a two year old, Molivaliente finished third when the Lingfield 6f AW track record was broken. He was 7.25l behind the winner that day but Molivaliente was outpaced early, ran green midway through the race and was a country mile behind entering the straight. But, he was noted finishing the race with great purpose. With track records unlikely to be tested and an extra furlong, Molivaliente could surprise at a decent price.
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Kinks 16.35 Chester (E.Way 20/1 Bet365)
Kinks went into my notebook when third in the “Weatherbys Super Sprint” at Newbury. He was highly tried subsequently in Group and listed races. Back handicapping and with two prep races under his belt, Kinks should get the cover he needs from his wide draw to come late and fast. “I'm hoping to see De Sousa at his very best.”
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Amiral Collonges 15.45 Fakenham (E.Way 16/1 Bet365)
In any national you want a horse that has proven stamina; Amiral Collonges certainly has that having won this very race two years ago carrying 7lb more than the feather weight of just 10st 7lbs he carries this time. Performances since that win have been disappointing however, his trainer (James Evans) is now in red hot form with 8 winners from his last 36 runners.
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Corazon Espinado 16.20 Winsor (E.Way 10/1 PP)
Corazon Espinado loves the ups and downs of Epsom so he may enjoy Windsor’s figure of eight track. A £120k yearling Corazon Espinado is never beaten far (always trying). He was second in the £70k class 2 "London mile" in September 2018, beaten less than one length. A repeat of that run would be good enough to win this. Top jockey Oisin Murphy does the steering.
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Gifted Master 14.55 Newmarket (E.Way 7/1 Bet365)
Gifted Master won this race last year off the same weight. He clearly loves Newmarket, with six wins and two seconds from 12 races. Three of his unplaced efforts at Newmarket were in Group races. With top jockey James Doyle taking the ride again, Gifted Master will go close.
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King’s Slipper 16.15 Thirsk (Win 4/1 Bet365)
On Classic days, I am always interested to see top jockeys riding somewhere else. One that has caught my eye is, “Newmarket” based jockey Adam Kirby travelling to Thirsk a 370 mile round trip. The reason appears to be the £40k prize money on offer in the Thirsk Hunt Cup.
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15.40 Thirsk Somewhere Secret E.Way 12/1 Bet365
15.45 Goodwood Ana Nerium E.Way 11/2 PP
20.20 Doncaster Aussie View E.Way 15/2 Bet365
Reserve
16.15 Thirsk King's Slipper Win 9/2 Sky.Bet
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Dew Pond 17.10 Musselburgh (Win 13/2 Bet365)
Sired by the 2005 Derby winner Motivator and related to Hawk Wing second in the 2002 Derby, Dew Pond has to be the best bred horse running on Friday. Following two years off the track, Dew Pond has finished in the first five in his last seven races including over hurdles. Watching his last race at Southwell, he came with a nicely timed run only to tire in the deep sand (his first experience of this specialist track). Dropped a further 3lbs for that run Dew Pond is now 20lbs below his last winning mark. The opposition does not look particularly strong, with the fancied horses; Eyreborn 0 from 22, Enemy of the State 0 from 13 and Elite Icon just 1 from 22. So back on turf where he has won four times, Dew Pond should be able to get competitive.
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Raheeb 19.25 Chelmsford (Eway 10/1 Bet365)
This horse is bred for sprinting being sired by Kodiac and related to Oasis Dream, whilst several in this race will prefer a longer distance in time. A C&D winner already, we know she goes on the track. Carrying the famous blue and white colurs of Hadam Al Maktoum this £180k purchase will be primed to return some of this investment. Trainer Owen Burrows is also in good form.
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Congratulations to the all winners of the April Nap and knockout competitions, you bragging rights are well deserved and a big thank you to the organisers and PL.
Now to make a good start to May.
Primeiro Boy 17.15 Pontefract (Eway 16/1 PP)
As a two year old Primeiro Boy ran mainly over 5f. The extra distance and uphill Pontefract track may suit him based upon his breeding link to New Approach (Derby Winner 2008). He will strip a lot fitter following his comeback run following his winter break which can be ignored. Trained by Richard Fahey (won this race last year) Primeiro Boy could be there are thereabouts.
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Well to have any chance of winning the monthly title I need a 50/1 winner and hope the others come unstuck. Whilst Roseman looks the obvious winner. Starlight is my pick. The £160k yearling is trained by M Bell.
Starlight 14.35 Nottingham 50/1 PP
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Atletico 20.10 Thirsk (25/1 PP)
On boxing day Atletico (rated 99) was a few lengths behind AW sprint champion Kachy in a class 2 over 6f. Now four months on he is rated just 65 and runs in a class 6. Yes he has not won in 21 races but he has never run in class 6. His last two races were in class 3 and 4 races.
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LeMale welcome, I am sure you will enjoy PL. Thank you for your kind words. I enjoy studying form and trends, but I still find it hard to find a winner. Good luck with your selections.
- Kingdom for and BillyHills
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Conor Hogan 16.45 Navan (Eway 14/1 PP)
Trainer G Lyons has an excellent 20% win rate at Navan and he teams up with leading Navan jockey Colin Keane with Conor Hogan. A £140k purchase, Conor Hogan is well bred being sired by a Derby winner (Stamina) and related to Oasis Dream (Speed). This could be a winning combination.
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Shaleela's Dream 19.00 Wolverhampton (Eway 20/1 PP)
Shaleela's Dream was my selection on the 1st April but a mistake by his apprentice jockey found him short of room and any chance he may have had disappeared. With top jockey Gerald Mosse now taking the ride I am keen to support him again. He is a well bred son of Oasis Dream and he is related to Gallieo, so a big improvement can be expected in 2019.
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Seeing Red 16.35 Sandown (E.way 50/1 PP)
Sea the stars is a top middle distance sire and his charges should always be noted. Unfortunately he has sired four runners in this field. A low draw has been beneficial in the Group race over the same distance so I am taking a chance on Seeing Red (Drawn 2). Bought for £200k in October 2017 he made a promising debut against more experienced rivals in a Kempton maiden. He is being overlooked as he is not trained by a fashionable stable. Though I believe Amanda Perrett is very capable.
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Udontdodou 18.30 Chelmsford (E.Way 14/1 Bet365)
Udontdodou really loves Chelmsford winning 4 times out of 7 runs, compare this to his record at other All Weather tracks which is 0 from 6. A regular in class 2 races he drops back into a class 3 race for the first time since May 2018. Inspection of his record in class 3 races since January 2017 reads 1,0,1,3,1 and 2. He will be ridden by top jockey Jamie Spencer. Right course, right grade, and right jockey he should go close.
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Just That Lord 14.10 Epsom (Win 13/2 Bet 365)
The Epsom 5f track really suits out and out speedsters so it’s worth noting horses with good course form. One horse who goes well here is Just That Lord who has been placed in all three runs at this track 2,3,3. His efforts on the All Weather this winter can largely be ignored due to the courses having turns (unsuitable to his running style). On this straight downhill Epsom track he should go very close.
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Dubawi Meeznah 19.40 Wolverhampton (Win 6/1 Sky Bet)
Purchased for £200k as a yearling, great things were expected of Dubawi Meeznah. Now a four year old she has only been to the track once finishing third in a four runner race. Clearly something has been wrong. Hopefully all is well now and she can show the class her breeding suggests.
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Dancingwithwolves 13.55 Redcar (E.Way 15/2 Bet365)
With two runs under his belt Dancingwithwolves an expensive six figure purchase should know what is required today. His second run over a mile showed a lot of promise with today’s jockey ensuring he was not knocked about. With most of today’s field lacking experience he may give the Haggas hotshot a scare.
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Cintex 17.05 Plumpton (Eway 33/1 PP)
Neil Mulholland clearly saw some potential in Cintex paying £52k for this horse in November 2016, though he will have been disappointed with his performances to date. I am not sure he has enjoyed his chasing experience and he may come on from his Stratford hurdle run where he led briefly 3 out. Harry Reed is a capable jockey.
Naps - Mon May 13th
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
Medici Moon 13.50 Wolverhampton (Win 20/1 PP)
He seems to like this course and distance with form figures 2nd of 10, 3rd of 12 and 1st of 12. Winning jockey Rob Hornby returns to the saddle.