mcfoley

Totals for the Non-League bets at the end of the normal season are 363pts staked 478.82pts returned for a profit of 115.82pts. The profit in May alone was 30.5pts.

Must admit I was glad it wasn't a full house as I had forgotten to do the acca for the first time ever and that would have cost me dear if it had been a full house. Cracking afternoon though.

Good news is I am feeling better than I was so I can write some previews. Sadly Saturday's bets showed a small loss as although the two National League bets were winners, none of the 7 FA Trophy ones won despite some near misses. There is another Tuesday night with a full National League fixture list and I have 3 bets there with one more coming from the FA Trophy replays.
Chesterfield v Hartlepool
I was never that convinced by Chesterfield even when they were in a good spell of form and some of their defending of late has been schoolboy stuff. They conceded 3 against Chorley and Harrogate in their last two games and prior to that it was a 2-2 draw with Ebbsfleet. Having seen the goals they have been conceding it is no surprise they have been so leaky. I really do think Hartlepool are better than their league position suggests and hopefully Dave Challinor can get them playing a bit more consistently than they have been so far this season. They have drawn 3 of their last 4 league games 2-2 and the other was a 1-0 defeat against Solihull. Challinor should have had a win in his first league game in charge but Ebbsfleet came from 2 down and then on Saturday they had a bit of fortune coming from 2 down themselves against Boreham Wood who did deserve to win. I think Hartlepool are the better side, it is just a case of if they can actually prove it on the pitch. It would certainly seem we will be in for goals and hopefully Chesterfield's defence are feeling every bit as generous as they have been of late. They certainly shouldn't be as big as Betfair's 29/10 for me.
Eastleigh v Torquay
I know it seemed strange to beat putting Chorley up on Saturday especially with no explanation, but Torquay have been struggling with injuries and it showed when Sutton beat them the previous weekend. With Chorley winning at Chesterfield as mentioned above that meant I thought they had a much better chance than the odds suggested and I was proven spot on as Chorley fully deserved their win. They now have to go straight into another away trip at Eastleigh who although I don't think are anything special they are very consistent and have actually only lost one of their last 9 games. They look over priced here to me given Torquay's issues at the moment. 
Notts County v Boreham Wood
I mention Chesterfield's shocking defending of late above, but Notts County have hardly been much better and have also been conceding embarrassing goals recently. Yes Barrow are top, but County really did make it quite easy for them at times and then they were poor at Aldershot on Saturday. Granted at home they have been strong in general, but clearly they are a bit shaky at the moment and Boreham Wood have been putting in some good performances recently. They are unbeaten in 4 having drawn 3 of those, but that includes a 1-1 draw with Yeovil as well as that draw with Hartlepool on Saturday. These two teams only have 1pt and 1 place between them at the moment and Wood certainly have the players to punish County if they continue to perform as they have been at the moment. County are the right favs, but I would have the away side around the 2/1 mark so the 100/30 with Betfair is value to me.
Alfreton v Blyth Spartans
We were very unlucky not to collect with Blyth on Saturday and they certainly look value to me at 7/2 to take this at the 2nd time of asking. As I have mentioned of late Blyth are much improved and don't look a side that are at the wrong end of the table as they are after their dreadful start to the season. I am more than happy to back them again.
Hartlepool 1pt @ 29/10 with Betfair
Eastleigh 2pts @ 147/100 with Marathon
Boreham Wood 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair
Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 7/2 with Bet365

I have had tough spells in the past and given this one has only lasted 2 match days it is not exactly the longest, but this week has been really tough. Saturday wasn't great and the 3pt Yeovil bet losing was annoying, but what happened on Monday and Tuesday was just awful. Gloucester should have won that game with ease in the circumstances, but they massively under performed and obviously personally that defeat was hard to take. Then for Dover to go and somehow lose 4-0 to Aldershot on the Tuesday night was probably an even freakier result. I have now tipped up Dover in their only 2 games they have failed to win on the road and they have conceded 7 times in those two matches. Granted it was only a point on Hartlepool on Wednesday night, but to see them defend as badly as they did for the 2 Stockport goals was pretty hard to take as it was really bad stuff. Obviously if you were a new follower after the two really good days the week before then you might be wondering what all the fuss is about and you will be a fair few quid down. I can make no guarantees about making a profit, but hopefully come April I will still be in profit and who knows we might get a day like the final day of last season again! 
Anyway onto Saturday and I have 6 bets.
Halifax v Boreham Wood
Chorley turned up to Halifax on Tuesday night and didn't even try to win the game and Halifax just couldn't break them down. Fair play to Chorley because they keep drawing games so in some ways it was no disrespect to only get a point against them rather than all 3. I do think though they can get straight back to winning ways against a Boreham Wood side who will have done plenty of travelling this week. They have been in decent nick only losing 2 of their last 7 games, but one of those was when they had to go all the way to Barrow on Tuesday night and they lost 3-1 to the in form home side. It is pretty nasty of the fixture list to send them to Barrow on a Tuesday and then Halifax on the Saturday especially when Halifax played at home on Tuesday night. Halifax have got the best defence in the league which is key given Tshimanga and Marsh have both score 8 goals for Wood this season. Keep them quiet and the chances are you will win the game and hopefully Halifax will do just that. I would have them odds on myself so 13/10 looks a big price.
AFC Telford v York City
York are still unbeaten which is pretty impressive after 12 games and hopefully they will be making it 13 games unbeaten after this one. They are already looking like they will be hard to beat for the title and they ought to have too much for a Telford side who have been really struggling of late. They lost to Blyth in their last league game and were also dumped out of the FA Cup 3-0 to Nantwich from the league below. They have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 4 home games as well and you would expect a side like York to be able to punish them on that front as well. Again I think York should be odds on shorts so 59/50 makes plenty of appeal.
Curzon Ashton v Blyth Spartans
Blyth are obviously risky because they haven't been great so far this season, but they have shown signs of improvement and they look way over priced to beat a badly out of form Curzon side who are in worse form. Curzon have not won a game since August 12th and not only that they have only picked up 1 point in the league since then and that was when they drew with Stalybridge on Bank Holiday Monday which stopped me from getting a very profitable full house on that day! Blyth know they can beat Curzon as they beat them in a FA Cup replay last month. As mentioned above Blyth won their last league game against Telford and although they lost to Hednesford in the FA Cup last Saturday they still look in better shape than their hosts at the moment. I would probably have them around the 7/4 mark and the 29/10 they actually are is way over the odds.
Whitby v Warrington
I am going to try and get some of the money back lost on Monday by taking on Whitby again. We know they were down to the barebones for Monday and although getting time off work won't be an issue here they still have injuries to deal with. The players were out on their feet on Monday after about 60 minutes and Gloucester were well on top despite having just 10 men and I even get the feeling City might have won the tie if they had 11 men on the pitch. Taken that into account I suspect there will be some tired Whitby legs on Saturday. Also given they have a great chance of getting to the 1st Round of the FA Cup next Saturday and I would imagine they will have more than one eye on that tie against Stourbridge. Warrington are more than good enough to take advantage and have yet to loose on their travels in the league this season. Granted they haven't won in 4, but they have drawn 3 of those games and although South Shields already look away and gone they should be in the play-offs. All things considered I think they are over priced for this and are well worth backing.
Hartley Whitney v Walton Casuals
The home side have yet to win at home in the league this season and hopefully that will continue to be the case here. They have only won twice and they have come against Dorchester who are below them in the table and Met Police who are one place above them. Walton Casuals lost their first 5 games, but have followed that up with 4 straight wins so come here in fine form and I fancy them to make it 5 losses and 5 victories.
Harrow v Truro 
Truro are having a cracking season after relegation having lost just twice in 10 games and have won 7 of them as well. They look possible title contenders and I think they can get another 3 points here. Harrow started the season well enough and were unbeaten after 5 games, but they have lost 3 of their last 4 and I suspect they are going to find their place in the table being the bottom half come April. I think Truro are well worth a bet as they are the better side of the two and hopefully will go and prove that on the pitch.
Oxford City v Dartford
This is an extra bet after I put the initial 6 bets up. It was announced on Thursday evening that Steve King was the new manager at Dartford and I think that news makes them worth a bet on Saturday. We usually see an improved performance from teams who have a new manager and I am a huge fan of Steve King. His track record especially at this level is hugely impressive and as much as fans of rival clubs have always wanted to slag him off I have never really understood why given how good he is. He nearly saved Whitehawk from relegation 2 seasons ago given from memory I don't think they had even won a game when he joined, they certainly were detached at the bottom of the table. He then went to Welling and got them to finish 3rd despite the fact they cut the wage budget during the season and they went on to lost to Woking in the play-off final. I'm not surprised he wasn't out of work for long and I expect him to get an under performing Dartford rising up the table. Oxford City have won three games at home this season and two of them were against Hampton & Richmond with the other against North Leigh in the FA Cup. They have drawn against Weymouth and Billericay in their last two home league games which are fair efforts, but I think we could see a big performance from Dartford this weekend and at 15/8 I am willing to back them.
Halifax 3pts @ 13/10 with William Hill
York 2.5pts @ 59/50 with Marathon
Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 29/10 with Marathon
Warrington 1pt @ 9/4 with BetVictor
Walton Casuals 1pt @ 153/100 with Marathon
Truro 1pt @ 7/5 with Marathon
Dartford 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365

Gloucester v Whitby
Part of me doesn't want to get involved in this game as obviously I already have a lot riding on it from an emotional point of view as I am always desperate for us to progress in the FA Cup, but take my heart out of it the game looks to be potentially one that money can be made from and ultimately I would be getting involved if I wasn't a Gloucester fan. Whitby should have won the first tie on Saturday and Gloucester equalised very late in the game to take the match to a replay. Not surprisingly the Whitby players looked gutted after the goal goes in and that for me was the moment their hopes in the FA Cup ended. Just 48 hours later they have to travel over 200 miles to Evesham to take in the replay. That is tough for plenty of reasons but the main one being they could well struggle to raise a team tonight. They were already suffering from injuries and the squad was pretty depleted on Saturday and then the players have to try and get a day off work at very short notice. Now until the final team sheet is seen it is impossible to know for certain who is on that team bus, but I have seen it suggested that they may not have 10 outfield players. I did consider waiting to see the team news before having a bet, but I think it is a case of trying to beat the crowd on this one. Given the Gloucester players had a massive scare on Saturday I don't think they will take things lightly tonight and with the draw given them a home tie against a lower league side in the next round, it looks a decent opportunity to get to the 1st Round. Gloucester have done us a few favours already this season and even if Whitby do have 10 outfield players on the pitch I still think City will be too strong at the 2nd time of asking. For me the bet is on the -1 handicap with is 15/8 with Betfair and Paddy Power which could look very big depending on team news and looks a good bet anyway.
Gloucester City -1 3pts @ 15/8 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Boylesports

A poor day on Saturday, but days like that will happen so we move on to the midweek action and I have 2 bets I like the look of.
Aldershot v Dover
It really annoys me that the only time I have backed Dover when they have played away from home was the only time they haven't won on their travels this season. That game ended in defeat to Boreham Wood, but apart from that they have been exceptional on the road this season and I fancy them to win here against a poor Aldershot side. Aldershot have only managed to beat Wrexham at home so far this season and obviously given where they are in the table it doesn't say a great deal. They played out a dire 0-0 on Saturday against Chorley and you would expect Dover to have too much for them. Dover played their part in a good game on Saturday where they were denied the 3 points late on by Notts County in a 2-2 draw. For me Dover should be odds on for this and I can't see the 13/10 lasting.
Stockport v Hartlepool
This game is the live BT Sport game on Wednesday night and I think Hartlepool are a big price to back up their win against Yeovil on Saturday. They played really well and to get a winner in injury time a couple of minutes after Yeovil had equalised showed a real strength in character. That was their first win in 6, but they are unbeaten in 3 now and they have decent away form only losing to Halifax and Dagenham so far on their travels. I still think they look a side capable of being in the promotion mix and to be fair despite the fact they are 15th they are only 4 points from the play-off places. Stockport are in desperate form at the moment and lost 5 on the bounce before getting a 0-0 draw at Sutton on Saturday. There were some shocking performances in those defeats as well and they were conceding goals for fun. Manager Jim Gannon saw some improvement on Saturday, but it wasn't a great game and I think Hartlepool can punish them. I'm surprised that Hartlepool are as big as 5/2 because I think they are the better team and would have them no bigger than 7/4.
Dover 4pts @ 13/10 with BetVictor
Hartlepool 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365

Saturday yet again showed the fine margins involved in football betting. Gloucester, Barrow and Halifax winning would have been OK, but for the two biggest bets to score winners so late on turned it into a fantastic day. I think it was a deserved change of luck after not having a great deal go right during September. There are a few games on Tuesday night and I like 4 bets at Step 3.
Brightlingsea Regent v Enfield Town
The home side are now without a manger after they blew a 2 goal lead against Lewes on Saturday, losing 3-2. They have now lost 3 on the bounce and they have only won 2 of their 9 league games so far. One of those came against bottom side Corinthian-Casuals although they did manage to be the only team to beat title favs Hornchurch so far this season. Hopefully one of my tips for the title Enfield can give them a 4th defeat on the trot. They are currently in 4th place and the only game they have lost in the league was a horror show against 4th placed Horsham. They have been seeing off the teams lower down in the table and should have too much for their hosts and are 36/25 with Marathon.
Corinthian-Casuals v Horsham
Casuals are really struggling in the league this season having failed to win a game and they featured in a dire game on Saturday against Pitters Bar which ended 0-0. It is amazing they managed to beat Chelmsford in the FA Cup given how badly they have done in the league, but that also means they may not have their full focus on this game given they have their next FA Cup game on Saturday against Kings Langely. For me at this stage of the season that will surely have more significance than this league game. Horsham's only league defeat this season came in a 1-0 loss against Folkestone who are top and undefeated. They have won 4 of their 5 away games and they are out of the Cup so don't have that to worry about. Granted they should have beaten Cheshunt easier on Saturday as they ended up with 9 men and the goal was an own goal, but I think Horsham should really be a shade of odds on so Marathon's 139/100 looks a cracking price.
Merstham v Worthing
Worthing have only played 7 league games so far this season, but they have only lost twice to the current top 2 in the division so the rest of their form looks decent. It does include a crazy 5-5 draw as well. 13 points from 7 games is a decent enough return. Merstham don't look anything special this season and 2 of their 3 wins so far have come against the bottom 2 sides and they have lost 3 of their last 4 games. Marathon's 51/25 looks too big about an away win to me.
Scarborough v Basford United
The slight concern here is that Scarborough have drawn all 4 of their home games this term which include bottom side Buxton and top side South Shields. Overall though they have only won once in the league and are currently in 17th place so I am happy enough with the price about Basford being the first team to pick up 3 points at Scarborough this season. Basford are in 4th and have only lost 3 of their 9 league games and they have been against top of the table South Shields, 3rd placed Matlock and 6th placed Grantham. Also key is their game on Saturday was called off and that could well prove crucial given Scarborough had a tough game against Warrington. I think Marathon's 46/25 is worth taking about an away win.
Enfield Town 2pts @ 36/25 with Marathon
Horsham 3pts @ 139/100 with Marathon
Worthing 1pt @ 51/25 with Marathon
Basford United 1pt @ 46/25 with Marathon

Tuesday night summed up the last 2/3 weeks really as things didn't quite go our way. Barnet had a stinker and Halifax should have won only to lose to a late goal in the end. Hopefully I can end the month on a high though as I have 7 bets including some strong selections among them.
Previews to follow
Barrow v Maidenhead 
I know Maidenhead have one of the best away records in the league, but I think they have been flattered by their good start and they are beginning to find their natural place in the table. Their last 2 away games have seen a draw at Wrexham and a loss at Barnet and that trend is also in their overall form. They have now not won in 5 games and go to a side in Barrow who are flying at the moment. After beating Yeovil in a live game last month they then failed to win in their next 4 games picking up just a point, but they were playing well and only losing games by the odd goal. They have now won their last 4 and they have scored 3 goals in each of their last 3 games. With Maidenhead only keeping 1 clean sheet in their last 9 games then Barrow will surely be adding to their goals total here. They look a big price at 6/4 to win this.
Dover v Halifax
As mentioned above Halifax should have won on Tuesday night, but in the end a late Harrogate goal meant they didn't even end up with a point. They look a big price though to beat a Dover side who have only managed to pick up 5 points from their 6 home games so far this season. That includes draws against struggling Ebbsfleet and Chorley so Halifax should pose a much stiffer test. It is annoying that the only time I have tipped Dover away from home this season was the one time they haven't won on their travels this season, but it is clear that Dover at home and Dover away from home are two very different sides. Halfiax have looked strong away from home and I just can't see how they can be nearly 3/1 to win this as I would have them around the 7/4 mark myself. This game is the live BT Sport one on Saturday teatime.
Billericay v Dorking
Granted it was very poor from Dorking to lose to a side two leagues below them in the FA Cup last Saturday especially given Tooting ended up with 10 men, but this game looks a decent chance to bounce straight back. They have won their last 3 league games and a 3-1 win over Maidstone was a top effort. I suspect everyone reading this knows what has happened at Billericay so I won't go back over it, but they could only manage 5 subs (allowed 7) in their FA Cup game and they only scraped a 1-0 win. One of those subs was new manager Jamie O'Hara who was meant to have retired. More players have left the club this week and although as I type the likes of Jake Robinson are still there, they have been weakened. Dorking are above Billericay in the table as well and we are dealing with a different Billericay from the side who had won 4 of their 5 home league games so far. At over 3/1 the away side seem a sporting play in the circumstances.
Eastbourne v Chelmsford
Two sides who are under performing so far this season especially the away team whose fans aren't happy with the way things have gone. Their away form has been especially bad as they have only picked up 1 point so far in 5 away games The also lost at Corinthian-Casuals in the FA Cup last weekend and they haven't even managed to win a game in the league below. Including that FA Cup game they have conceded twice 3 times and let in 4 twice. Given all that I just can't understand how bookies can make Chelmsford favs to win this. I accept Eastbourne aren't doing great themselves, but they have only lost one of their last 5 league matches and beat Tonbridge in the FA Cup last weekend. They should be favs to win this so 15/8 is well worth taking.
Gloucester City v Guiseley
I am backing my own team again here as I just don't see how they can be 5/2 to win this. Having seen them in the flesh against Kings Lynn two weeks ago I was impressed with what I saw and they were within seconds of being the first team to win at Kings Lynn for a long time. Granted Kings Lynn deserved the point, but Gloucester held their own against a team who have started the season very strongly and look at this stage to be certain to finish in the play-offs. Beating Guiseley won't be easy as they have done well themselves this season, but their only away wins so far have come against two of the worst sides in the league Bradford Park Avenue and Blyth. That points to Gloucester having a decent chance and I would make them a point shorter to win.
Spennymoor v Kidderminster
My strongest bet of the season so far. I know Kiddie have only lost once away this season in the league, but they have had a very kind fixture list so far. They have beaten Bradford, Curzon and Kettering and drew to Blyth. They are currently the bottom 4 clubs in the division. Now Spennymoor are 5th from bottom, but they have clearly been suffering from a play-off final defeat hangover (like Fylde in the league above) and they are much better than a bottom 5 side for me. They have only lost one of their last 6 league games so the signs are there that they will be rising up the table. Kidderminster look a long way from being a side capable of mounting a play-off challenge this season and I would put a lot of money on Spennymoor finishing above them come the end of April. Losing 3-0 at Stafford in the FA Cup replay on Tuesday was another shocker and of course they have had to play an extra game compared to the home side. I am really strong on the home side here and they should be odds on shots in my view.
Buxton v South Shields
I was very surprised to see South Shields at odds against to win this. The title favourites have only lost won game this season and have won all bar one of the others. Compare this to Buxton who have yet to win and have picked up just 3 points in their first 8 games. Odds against looks a steal to be honest and it will be a surprise if this isn't an away win.
Barrow 2pts @ 6/4 with BetVictor
Halifax 1pt @149/50 with Marathon
Dorking 1pt @ 16/5 with BetVictor
Eastbourne 1pt @ 15/8 with Marathon
Gloucester 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365
Spennymoor 4pts @ 61/50 with Marathon
South Shields 3pts @ 59/50 with Marathon

Superb day on Monday with only 5/6 winners at some decent prices as well. If only Spennymoor could have won we would have been looking at another hefty payout. Just to remind people that I always suggest they do singles, but I always cover the acca and the one below for 0.5pts every match day and the five fold on Monday has pretty much paid for a whole season of those bets. It has been a bit of a rollercoaster though this month so hopefully we can end August on a high on Saturday where I have 7 bets across 5 leagues.
Torquay v Hartlepool
Hartlepool were one of my ante-post bets for the league and I was beginning to think I had got them wrong, but they got a really good win on Monday when beating Wrexham 4-2. Torquay blew a 2 goal lead at Barnet on Monday and that came on the back of beating Aldershot on BT Sport on Saturday. Torquay did well enough and deserved the win, but I didn't think they had to work all that hard for it. I don't think there is a great deal between these two teams at the moment and the win on Monday should have given Hartlepool a nice confidence boost ahead of this. The 100/30 about an away win looks over priced for me.
Yeovil v Notts County
County continue to improve and although they didn't have to do much to beat Chorley on Monday they did score some very impressive goals. I think they can come out on top in this battle between the two relegated sides. I haven't really been taken by Yeovil so far and they lost their last 3 games after results wise a good start. They have only managed to beat Eastleigh and Ebbsfleet so far though and I think at the time they were two of the poorest teams in the division so it doesn't say much. I would have County as clear favourites and they are certainly looking stronger than they were earlier in the month.
Gloucester City v York City
York are already looking like they could be hard to beat in the National League North and they are unbeaten after 7 games. Away from home they are 3/3 and I think they can make it 4/4 at Evesham on Saturday. Gloucester had a good win last Saturday, but those efforts told when being well beaten by Brackley on Monday. As I have written in the past Gloucester's form at Evesham hasn't been great although they can make it hard for teams to break them down and they drew plenty in the final few months of the season as they tried to stay at this level. I think York have more than enough to break them down though and I thought York would be odds on so odds against is well worth taking.
Hyde v Stafford
It has been a good start to the season for Hyde as after losing to Basford on the opening day of the season they have won their other 3 games including beating South Shields last Saturday. That is clearly strong form and they host a Stafford side who have only picked up 1 point from their first 3 games so Hyde look a decent bet to make it 4 wins on the bounce.
Bognor v Carshalton
Take Bognor's 5-0 win over Worthing out and they have had a shocking start to the season and they lost 3-0 to Worthing last Saturday and they had lost their previous game 6-0! Carshalton lost their first two games, but they have won their next 3 games and should be capable of mounting a play-off challenge this season whereas Bognor might just struggle to get involved. It doesn't really make much sense why the away side are 100/30 and the prices should be much closer together.
Hednesford v Needham Market
The home side are looking like they will be title contenders this season and have won 4 of their first 5 games with the only defeat coming against unbeaten Coalville. On Monday they beat title favourites Tamworth and I think they should have too much in hand over a Needham Market side who have only managed to beat bottom side Leiston so far this term.
St Ives v Coalville
Speaking of Coalville they travel to St Ives side who have only managed to pick up one point on the opening day of the season. As mentioned above Coalville are unbeaten so far and they came out on top in an 8 goal thriller against Nuneaton on Saturday. These two teams should be battling it out at opposite ends of the table come April and Coalville look a big price to pick up 3 more points.
Hartlepool 1pt @ 100/30 with Bet365
Notts County 2pts @ 6/4 with Marathon and Bet365
York 2.5pts @ 11/10 with BetVictor
Hyde 1pt @ 7/5 with BetVictor
Carshalton 1pt @ 100/30 with Marathon
Hednesford 2pts @ 26/25 with Marathon
Coalville 2pts @ 131/100 with Marathon

Reduce stakes and then go and get 5/6 at some juicy prices in typical fashion. Still a massive profit on the day although Spennymoor continue to frustrate, but having said that two late goals from Woking and Braintree were very welcome. 
Tipping at the sort of prices I usually tip at you are going to have ups and downs over a season and its important to judge things over a long period if following my tips because of that. Most football tipsters will be tipping up odds on shots or very close to odds on every week and we have had a month of the season and I've not put up one odds on shot yet (albeit I put two odds on shots in a double).

Saturday was one of those frustrating days which looked like being a really good day at one point and then ended up showing a loss, albeit small, despite only one team losing. I have 6 bets on Monday although I am not going crazy because it is set to be another very hot afternoon coming on the back of a very hot afternoon on Saturday and that is going to be very tough on the players. I think it is going to make what is already a tough turn around even tougher. It is my birthday so hopefully a profit can be made.
Boreham Wood v Ebbsfleet
Two sides with only 1 win between them and I doubt there is a great deal between the two sides which make the away team a bet at 29/10. Boreham Wood have usually been very strong at home since they got promoted, but they haven't won a home game since January and with Ebbsfleet improving (they could have beaten Notts County in the end on Saturday), they look a sporting play here.
Dover v Woking
Have I got Woking massively wrong? Having put them up to be relegated I am amazed they are top of the table after 6 games, but then they had a similar start in 2017 when I put them up to go down and they did end up being relegated so who knows! Beating Solihull 2-0 was a superb effort on the back of beating Fylde 4-1. Dover have had a good start as well, but they have lost 2 of their 3 home games and Woking have looked especially good away from home. They just shouldn't be 5/2 shots to win this game.
Blyth Spartans v Guiseley
Blyth's woeful start to the season continued on Saturday as they drew 0-0 with Bradford Park Avenue who have looked even worse than Blyth have. Guiseley have already scored 14 goals this season and must fancy their chances of adding to that tally here. I think they should be nearer even money than the 141/100 that they are.
Curzon Ashton v Spennymoor
I can't believe how much Spennymoor have struggled so far and one 1 point in 4 games is not a good return for last season's beaten play-off finalists. They will surely turn it around sooner rather than later though and I think it could be on Monday as they face a Curzon side who had a nightmare trip to Kings Lynn on Saturday and then were well beaten. On paper Spennymoor are the better side and they just shouldn't be 9/4 shots.
Braintree v Dorking
Both sides lost on Saturday, but I thought Dorking's loss to Hampton was worse and Braintree seem to be gelling at last. Prior to Braintree's 2-1 defeat to Dartford on Saturday they had beaten St Albans 3-0 and Eastbourne 5-0. Dorking's only point in their last 3 games came in a draw against St Albans and they might not add to that here. Braintree certainly look over priced at 17/10.
Kingstonian v Bishops Stortford
Not been a great start to the season by the home side although they were unbeaten before Hornchurch beat them on Saturday. The main reason for tipping Stortford up though is the fact they didn't have a game on Saturday and given the conditions that could well have a big part to play in this game and for that reason at 29/10 they look a sporting play and have managed to win a game this season unlike their hosts.
Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 29/10 with Bet365
Woking 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365
Guiseley 1pt  @ 141/100 with Marathon
Spennymoor 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365
Braintree 1pt @ 17/10 with Marathon
Bishops Stortford 1pt @ 29/10 with BetVictor

Been a disappointing couple of sessions on the back of a couple of good ones which is annoying as well as the fact the last two Nap's have both been beaten after going 3/3 on that front. It's going to be a busy Bank Holiday weekend with games on Saturday and Monday but hopefully it will be a profitable. I have 8 bets on Saturday.
Previews to follow
Chorley v Hartlepool
Chorley got off to a solid start back at this level, but things have really gone wrong in their last two games conceding 10 goals. It seems that the high of promotion has warn off and the reality has set in. It seems they played well enough against Maidenhead, but to do that and still concede 4 goals is not good. Hartlepool being one of the teams I put up ante-post have done OK so far although their only win came at Maidenhead. They played their part in their 3-2 defeat against Bromley last time and I certainly think they are improving after their first two defeats. If Chorley continue in the same vein they have then they are going to get chances to score and although Hartlepool have been a bit too leaky at the back I am not sure Chorley are going to be up too matching them going forward. I would make Hartlepool slight favourites for this so 19/10 is a nice price.
Eastleigh v Dagenham & Redbridge
Dagenham were a team I struggled to get right last season and after they beat Harrogate last week I just hope it isn't going to be the same this time around. I wasn't exactly complimentary about them last week and it may surprise to see that I am tipping them up this week, but that was a good performance to put 4 past Harrogate especially as they came from 1 down and 2-1 down. Eastleigh are unbeaten in their two home games so far beating Notts County on day 1 and then drawing with Sutton, but I don't think either of those performances showed they were up too much at the moment and they have lost their 3 away games. I thought they would struggle to reach the play-offs like they did last season, but you have to wonder if they might end up being in a relegation scrap based on performances so far. For me Dagenham look stronger at the moment and at 61/25 they look over priced to me.
Ebbsfleet v Notts County
It's probably surprising as well to see I am so strong on Notts County this weekend, but it is clear that performances have improved having beaten Harrogate and drawing with Wrexham on Sunday. With a 6 day gap between games that should give the management team time to work with the players that would have been tricky with the Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday/Sunday schedule they have been faced with prior to this week. They looked a million miles away in the game against Barnet, but it seems they are making good progress now and they face and Ebbsfleet side who come into this having lost all 5 games so far. To be fair to them they were close at Fylde and Solihull to getting at least a point so they are capable, but their two home performances have been really bad so far and as much as I think Gary Hill will sort things out eventually Notts County should have too much for them here.
Harrogate v Stockport
Having put Harrogate up in their last three games and for them to let me down no doubt they will go and win this now I am opposing them, but Stockport are just too big a price for me. Harrogate might end up suffering from 2nd season syndrome and losing their last 3 is not good. Stockport looked clueless on the opening day against Maidenhead, but they have gone unbeaten since and certainly looked to have improved since then. Granted they have had a fairly kind fixture list, but they shouldn't fear playing Harrogate at the moment and at bigger than 5/2 they look a value play.
Yeovil v Maidenhead
I've tried opposing Yeovil a couple of times without success, but then I did do it with Ebbsfleet and Eastleigh so that was perhaps my mistake. They were really bad against Barrow in a dire game last week and that backed up my view that they aren't anything special. Alan Devonshire continues to work miracles at Maidenhead and they have had a cracking start to the season winning 3 and only losing as mentioned above to Hartlepool. For me Maidenhead will be the sort of team that Yeovil will struggle with this season and like Stockport at bigger than 5/2 they look worth a bet.
Chelmsford v Welling
Chelmsford have scored 4 goals in both their home games so far and it looks like they are going to be very strong at home again this season as they were last term. Away from home it hasn't gone so well although they manage to keep Havant out last week. They have already been well backed, but there is just enough in the price for me to want to get involved. I must admit Welling have done better than I thought they would so far, but Chelmsford at home ought to be too strong for them.
Eastbourne v Dulwich Hamlet
I might have got slightly lucky Napping Eastbourne the other week because that win over Tonbridge is their only one so far and I think they are worth opposing against a Dulwich side who are looking strong this season. They have only lost one game so far at a strong Hemel side and they are the only team to have taken points against Wealdstone so far having beaten them. They did well to come back from 2 down against a Concord side who have started the season strongly last week and they have a good chance of getting back to winning ways against a Eastbourne side struggling to win at the moment.
Wimborne v Taunton Town
I opposed Taunton last week and they finally managed to get a win after two very surprising defeats. That 3-2 win over Chesham was a good effort and that should be them up and running now. Wimborne are fair from the strongest side in the division and Taunton should have too much for them.
Hartlepool 1pt @ 19/10 with BetVictor
Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 61/25 with Marathon
Notts County 3pts @ 177/100 with Marathon
Stockport 1pt 133/50 with Marathon
Maidenhead 1pt @ 139/50 with Marathon
Chelmsford 2.5pts @ 51/50 with Marathon
Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 9/5 with BetVictor
Taunton 2pts @ 121/100 with Marathon

A great day on Saturday with 5/8 selections winning including the 3rd winning Nap of the season as well as another big price winner with Barnet. Fixtures come thick and fast at this time of year and I have another 8 bets for Tuesday night.
Eastleigh v Sutton
Sutton are unbeaten in their first 3 games and although in theory a draw at home to Chorley wasn't great I think they will be happy enough with that given the weather conditions. Coming off the back of wins at Hartlepool and a draw at Barnet I am sure their new manager will be very happy with how things have started. I think they can carry on their unbeaten start as Eastleigh have been unimpressive so far. Yes they beat Notts County on day 1, but that wasn't hard and they haven't been great in losses at Yeovil or Barrow. I think Eastleigh have been priced up on last seasons play-off semi-finalists rather than the current side which is a fair bit weaker. I would make Sutton favs for this and not 5/2 shots. 
Ebbsfleet v Yeovil
In theory backing Ebbsfleet who have lost all their games so far looks risky especially as they were bad in their first two games, but they were much improved on Saturday against Fylde. Fylde only won via a penalty early on and Ebbsfleet certainly pushed them close to getting something from the game. If they can carry that on into Tuesday night they can beat a Yeovil side who still aren't really convincing me. They got another point on Saturday against Stockport, but Stockport had a lot of chances and should really have won. I think 17/10 is just on the right side of value.
Harrogate v Notts County
It seems odd to think Harrogate should be odds on to beat Notts County, but they should be odds on to beat Notts County. The main reason for this is because I think Harrogate will be able to take full advantage of the dodgy Notts County defence. I know Barnet won, but they didn't really exploit County's issue at defending crosses apart from when they scored the equalizer from a corner and boy did that show up how bad Notts County are at defending balls into the box. I'm surprised after that that Barnet didn't test them more, but Harrogate certainly should. The Woking manager made a point of saying that had to defend a lot of crosses into the box on Saturday against Harrogate and I can't see County keeping them out as Woking did. Harrogate were unlucky to lose as the Woking goal was a huge deflection and they will be pleased with the way they have started the season. County look a million miles away from being title contenders at the moment and it is no wonder they are as big as 22/1 for the title already, I struggle to see them turning around their fortunes here.
Brackley v Kings Lynn
Brackley don't look as strong as they have in the last couple of seasons and having beaten Alfreton on the opening day they have lost their next two albeit one was against title favs York on Saturday. Kings Lynn would have been disappointed about their opening day effort when being well beaten by Guiseley, but they have won their next two against Kettering and Hereford and looked decent in dong so. I don't think there is much between these two sides and certainly not the difference the bookies have them at so the value is backing the away side.
Guiseley v Spennymoor
Spennymoor are the Naps on Tuesday night as I really fancy them to beat Guiseley. Guiseley had two good wins to start the season, but certainly beating Bradford 5-0 wasn't that hard given how bad they are. They were brought back down to earth with a large bump on Saturday when losing 3-0 at Southport and this should be an even tougher test for them. Spennymoor have only played one game so far as their pitch isn't ready yet so they have had a break since their opening day draw at Hereford. That has to be an advantage at this time of season as Guiseley have 3 quick games in their legs and Spennymoor come into this the fresher. That is certainly part of what makes it a good bet, but I think Spennymoor are potential title contenders and if that is to be right they have to be winning games like this.
Hereford v AFC Telford
I initially thought Hereford would do well and they played well against Spennymoor in that 2-2 draw mentioned above, but they haven't been great in their two away games since. They beat a 9 man Gloucester last week although were lucky to do so as even with 10 men Gloucester looked the better side and then as mentioned above they were poor at Kings Lynn. It could be they will be better at home, but at this stage we can't be making assumptions like that and I think there is value in taking them on. Granted I am worried about Telford's away form as it was poor last season and they lost at Kettering on day 1, but again it is too early to say it will be an issue this season. They have been solid in their two home games beating Kidderminster and drawing against Gateshead. There is a lot of pressure on Hereford to do well this season and that might just mean their fans get frustrated if Telford can score early or keep it at 0-0. I wouldn't be having Telford at bigger than 2/1.
Kettering v Chester
I opposed Kettering on day 1 and they ended up beating Telford, but they have been much more like how I thought they would be in losing their next two games and they were really bad on Saturday when losing 3-0 to Darlington. I'm still not sure Chester will do as well as their ante-post odds suggest, but they are still unbeaten drawing against Boston and Altrincham before beating Farsely more comfortably than the 2-1 final score suggests. I still think Kettering will struggle and Chester should have too much for them and they look a good bet.
Kidderminster v Gloucester City
Obviously because I backed them I hoped Kidderminster would win on Saturday, but I also hoped they would win as I was eyeing this game up as a potential bet. The home side have not looked that great in their first two games and I certainly would not be using a 3-0 win against Bradford Park Avenue as proof that they have turned a corner. It is clear that BPA have been miles off the pace so far this season and have been the worst team in the league by someway. Gloucester have had a solid enough start to life back in the North having beaten Blyth, then that loss to Hereford before drawing with Altrincham on Saturday. Granted Gloucester weren't great, but then ever since they have been at Evesham for their home games they have struggled to get victories and it has been their away form that has been their strong point. It would not surprise me if that is the case again this season and since Mike Cook came in as manager he has made City very hard to beat and the signs are that will be the case again this season. I would have Gloucester at half the price they are and the 4/1 makes plenty of appeal
Sutton 1pt @ 5/2 with Marathon
Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365
Harrogate 2pts @ 23/20 with BetVictor and Betway
Kings Lynn 1pt @ 17/5 with Marathon
Spennymoor 3pts @ 11/8 with Marathon
AFC Telford 1pt @ 52/25 with Marathon
Chester 2pts @ 67/50 with Marathon
Gloucester City 1pt @ 4/1 with Betfred and BetVictor

2 matches to look at now as I think the price will go on both. Sadly both against my teams...
Merstham vs Hornchurch (Isthmian Premier Division) 
Merstham won this fixture 3-0 last season but a lot has changed since then - Merstham have a completely new squad and manager and having watched them in pre season it’s going to take time for them to gel, if at all. Hornchurch haven’t had it all their way in pre season but have pitched themselves against stronger opposition and have done OK. They held Dagenham & Redbridge with some
of Hornchurch key players missing, conceding a last min. goal. 
Favs to win the league with some strong additions to their squad, I would have expected odds on for Hornchurch, especially as I know that with Merstham home advantage is often not an advantage at all!! 
Hornchurch to win 6/5 (Bet365) 
Bromley vs Torquay (National League)
Quick and easy tip...from reports of Tuesday night, Bromley were really good, Torquay were really poor. I know Darran doesn’t fancy Torquay this season and that’s good enough for me to side with Bromley who I read were simply outstanding at times on Tuesday night. 
Bromley to win 6/4 (Bet365)
Wouldn’t put anyone off the double as well!
 
 

Having struggled a little on the Nap front last season it was good to go 2/2 on that front with Eastbourne winning. It was also good to get the first big priced winner of the season thanks to Aldershot and Guiseley's thrashing of Bradford Park Avenue helped make it a profitable night. 3 of the Step 3 leagues get underway on Saturday to bring us up to 6 leagues and I have 8 bets across them.
Previews to follow
Bromley v Torquay
It was a rude awakening for Torquay fans on Tuesday night as they were hammered 3-0 by Solihull. Gary Johnson called the Torquay performance inept and the worst he has seen since he joined the club. To be fair to the players though they were playing the team who finished 2nd last season and should be a play-off side this and that is a massive step-up from a very poor National League South. This will be another very tough game for them and whilst they will have got a kick up the arse from Gary, this is a good Bromley side who might for me look stronger than Torquay. They had a very comfortable win on Tuesday against Ebbsfleet and whilst this is harder they should be shorter than 6/4 to claim another 3 points.
Notts County v Barnet
Notts County got their first point of the season on Tuesday when drawing with 1-1 with Stockport. It was more proof though that they are struggling to come to terms with football at this level and that a team who signed 6 players 48 hours before the season started are struggling to gel. I wasn't certain of taking them on with Eastleigh or Stockport but I think Barnet are well worth backing. Barnet have 4 points from their first 2 games and have played well in both although the concern is both their goals have come from penalties. They need to take their chances, but I think they will certainly be capable of creating a few here and for me they should be no bigger than 2/1 and probably a bit shorter than that. Barnet for me are a step-up from the two opponents County have faced so far.
Woking v Harrogate
Woking played well in the first half against Aldershot on Tuesday, but they weren't so good in the 2nd half and Aldershot were able to take the derby day victory. I think Woking will struggle this season and I can't understand why Harrogate aren't clear favs for this game. They were involved in a great 2-2 draw with Solihull on day 1 and then were comfortable 3-0 winners at Barrow on Tuesday. Barrow is a tough place to go and it wouldn't be a big surprise if that was their heaviest defeat at home this season. Those two performances suggest Harrogate will be up their again this season and despite Woking's win at Dagenham I still think they will be in a relegation battle. Hopefully Harrogate can make their superior quality pay.
Alfreton v Blyth Spartans
This is a value play for me because Alfreton have been hammered in the betting from the opening prices and Blyth have drifted out to way too big a price. Blyth lost to Gloucester on the opening day of the season and I certainly don't think they will be a play-off contender as they were last season, but then Alfreton don't look like they will be anything special either. They have flattered to deceive for the last two seasons and my initial feeling is they will be no higher than mid-table. This game is currently priced up as if it is against title contenders and relegation fodder which isn't how I have seen it at all. Blyth have also had a week off as their game against Spennymoor was called off and that means they have 90 minutes less in their legs and extra training to get things right ahead of this game.
Bradford Park Avenue v Kidderminster
Just before I started to write the preview for this game it was announced that BPA had sacked their manager. We usually see the odd casualty during August, but for someone to be sacked with less than a week gone of the season is highly unusual. As I wrote in the preview for their game on Tuesday they had to be really bad to lose 5-0 to Curzon and then they went and lost 5-0 again to Guiseley. It's hard to know if they have done the right thing to sack the manager or not. I guess you could give him time to turn it around, but it would seem he has recruited poorly and its going to be hard when the fixtures come so fast in August for someone else to come in and change things quickly. I'm certainly happy to back Kidderminster here. Now Kiddie haven't exactly looked great themselves and I'm not sure I would want to be backing them at 11/8 to win away at anyone else in the league, but this is the right time to be playing BPA. Kiddie have the players to hurt them even if they look a little bit short of play-off contenders at the moment and they look a good bet to win this.
Braintree v Wealdstone
I saw Wealdstone in action on Tuesday night when they lost 1-0 to Dulwich. They will probably consider themselves unlucky to lose as they were very much on top when Dulwich scored the only goal of the game and the continued to see plenty of the ball. The problem was they didn't really test the keeper too much during the game despite some good build up play, although Dulwich looked really solid in defence and that was a big part in them keeping a clean sheet. They both look teams capable of being play-off contenders and both look better teams than they were last season. As I mentioned in my ante-post preview I don't think Braintree will do a great deal this season and they have lost their first two games although to be fair they were tough ones against Bath and Billericay. They actually played well against Braintree going down 3-2, but that was a local derby against the team everyone in the league will want to beat. I think they will suffer a bit of a comedown in this and their squad is very inexperienced this season. They also looked weak in defence and Wealdstone should be able to take full advantage. They are a big price and I make them the Nap's of the day.
Weymouth v Chelmsford 
I was a bit surprised that Chelmsford lost to Concord on Tuesday, but it suggests that like last season they could have issues away from home. Weymouth have put in two really good performances in their first two games back at this level beating Maidstone and drawing at home to Bath. Those suggest they will be a force to be reckoned with in NLS this season and it is hard to understand why Marathon have got them bigger than 2/1. I would have them at around 5/4 myself and they have a real chance of winning this.
Merstham v Hornchurch
Just one bet at Step 3 for me this weekend and although I hope Hornchurch don't win the title I certainly can see them getting their campaign off to a winning start. Merstham lost their manager and most of their squad to Kingstonian over the summer and they really are a shadow of the side who made the play-offs last season. They look likely to be struggling at the wrong end of the table given the strength of their side and Hornchurch ought to be odds on really.
Bromley 1pt @ 31/20 with BetVictor
Barnet 1pt @ 33/10 with BetVictor
Harrogate 2pts @ 17/10 with BetVictor and Betway
Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 5/1 with Boylesports (19/4 with BetVictor, 9/2 with Betfred)
Kidderminster 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor
Wealdstone 2.5pts @ 17/10 with BetVictor
Weymouth 1pt @ 41/20 with Marathon
Hornchurch 2pts @ 11/8 with Marathon
 

A really good day and great that I could take the knowledge from having watched Wealdstone on Tuesday to make money today. 3/3 winning naps and another big price winner today as well. No rest for the players and no rest for the tipsters at this time of year so back again for the mid week action.

First 4 home in the opener at Worcester all been running in points or hunter chases this year. Thankfully on the winner although just a shame he wasn't the price he was at Bangor! Still nice to get the horse right as he had been on my radar after his hunter chase runs which weren't all as bad as the form figures suggested.

If I didn't have BOG I would have gone in again as the more I looked at the race the more I fancied him. Great when it all falls into line like that.

A lot of 2nds at the moment which is frustrating although at least a couple of them were e/w to get some cash back. The opener at Worcester on Monday features Master Sunrise who of course was a massive gamble when I put him up at Bangor last time going from 25/1 to a SP of 9/2 only for him to unseat at the first. Sadly we aren't getting 25s about him, but he does have Richard Johnson on top and he rode him to victory at Southwell last summer and he was also placed on him over course and distance off a mark of 107. I think it is a big plus he is back on top and although he always comes attached with risks he is worth backing e/w at 15/2. Legal OK is a horse I put up at Fontwell and Earth Leader beat him fair and square although it wasn't helped by the fact he was taken on for the lead, but at the end of the day Earth Leader is a much better horse than he is. However that run still makes him look well handicapped off 88 here. I have just watched back his run at Fontwell last month and you would be worried about the step up in trip, but I wonder if It might help him as he will be going too quick for plenty and get them off the bridle and they might just struggle to peg him back if he gets an easy lead. The one concern I do have is maybe a small field that he could do it to might be more up his street, but I still have to have him onside at 9/2. Moreece is actually the best handicapped based on pointing ratings, but I don't really fancy him. He was well beaten at Ffos Las and the first two home that day haven't done much for the form since. I think the bigger dangers are the two horses who were 1st and 4th at Warwick last time. That was a Class 4 so both are dropping down in grade. The Manuscript won and his jockey takes off the weight he was put up for the win. Strictly speaking Tanrudy shouldn't reverse the form, but he has had a wind op and it might well see him see out the race better.
 
The next race sees Asockastar back in handicap company. He did us a couple of nice turns when winning at Leicester and especially at Fakenham earlier in the year and hopefully he can land the hat-trick for us. Now he isn't chucked in off 125, but if you remember my Stratford preview I said that they had chosen the wrong race for him and they should have run him in the handicap hunter chase as he looked well handicapped off 117. In hindsight he wouldn't have won that because Risk A Fine would have outclassed him and to be fair he ran as well as could have been expected in the big race when 3rd to Wonderful Charm. The handicapper put him up 8lbs for that effort, but crucially his jockey can claim 7lbs so he is essentially back to his old mark. He is dropping down in trip to 2m4f, but that doesn't concern me at all as he has plenty of pace and I think he can cope with that. I also don't think this is a strong race for the grade. Al Shahir is an obvious danger, but he fell last time and has burst before so both those things have to be a concern and as much as he might win he makes the market given his price. Cillian's Well was running well when hampered and unseating at Ffos Las last month, but that wasn't a strong race. Forever My Friend won a hunter chase at Fontwell last year and was then 2nd in the handicap hunter chase at Stratford off 115. He then went back into handicap company, but ran poorly. That Fontwell win was in a bad race although if he is strong in the betting then that has to be respected given his trainer. Having said that I that Asockastar is the better horse and he only has to carry 1lbs more. It is a shame there aren't 8 runners but I am still going to back him e/w at 7/1 because the Skelton horse does concern me.