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roger2256

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Posts posted by roger2256

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I prefer the flat april to October and with the abundance of big price winners and dubious tactics on the AW I am wary of getting involved but there are a few races today of interest , last night waleydd was 11/4 on 365 but no place market available,  this morning its 6/4 so that's a no go , however the 17.30 at chelmsford is marginally of interest . Although there are 10 runners I think I can discount 3 possibility 4 so willing to take the risk .

    17.30 Noble Behest ew

    10 win @ 3/1 & 10 place @ 4/7 

     

     

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by roger2256
    Text

    14 hours ago, Rolemat said:

    Ellarna 1.05 Newcastle ,not ever going to get wealthy or win a Daily prize with this but 11/8 on a 1/2 shot is a no brainer.

    £20 win 11/8 bog

    Tough luck with this it seems the industry didn't share your views of it being a 1/2 shot lol . 

    Interesting you were happy taking 11/8  when it was freely trading at 2.94 on BF . So you were losing an extra 45 %  of potential profit before the race was run . Pot and kettle come to mind . 

    You also state bog but not the bookie used 

    Myth And Fallacy of EW Betting

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by roger2256
    Text

    I wouldn't know if they are laughing unless it was because they knew they wouldn't be treated as a cash machine any more lol .

    Emails like , no longer eligible for bog , your account has been restricted or it's a traders decision,  guess I wont be getting a Christmas card either lol .

    Myth And Fallacy of EW Betting

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by roger2256
    Text

    Even after the examples you still refuse to the accept the concept.  Billy has told you he knew successful punters who did the same , Clark's success since June is there to see in front of you .

    Any serious punter looks , listens and considers all aspects and angles to make a profit .

    I bow to your superior intellect,  I'll consider it in April when I start on my 12th year of 'losing' , my 9th since retirement at 55 lol .  

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

    Very many thanks for sharing the principles of your strategy with the Forum.  Just wondering if your method works on the All Weather flat and since you now have to use the Betfair Exchange do you choose the E/W option or do you select the win market for the win bet and the place market for the place bet separately? Also I know succesful traders who regularly win money on the Betfair Exchange, they suffer from Betfair Premiums for their success.  Do you get adversley affected by this?

     

     

    I do apply it to the AW if there is a suitable race . 

    On BF I do the win market and the place market.  

    It's like all things you have to adapt and work with what you have and get on the best way you can .

    Myth And Fallacy of EW Betting

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    You seem to have changed tack a little after stating the place part of the bet will always lose if the odds are less than 4 or 5/1 . Whereas you have just said it returns 15  , a  5 profit on the place side . 

    You are stating now a loss on the whole bet which is absolutely correct,  no one is arguing that point , it is however only 5 and not 20 therefore minimizing the loss until the win is achieved.  

    I have 6 placed and a win @5/2   = break even

    You have 6 losers and a win @ 5/2  = -70 

    Myth And Fallacy of EW Betting

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by roger2256
    Text

    No one is arguing that 4/ 1 & 5/1 are the break even prices,  that's not the point . As I said you are looking at it in a conventional way and not in the context of short odds ew. 

    Example ; keep to whole numbers for ease and simplicity. 

    20 win on 5/2 = 70 return less stake = 50 profit . 

    10 ew on 5/2 = 35 return on the win part and 15 on the place part = 50 less stake = 30 profit . 

    Ok. Let's take 10 races all 5/2 all finish 2nd

    You . £20 win , all lost so - £ 200 

    Me. £10 ew , all place so I lose £100 on the win but just £50 on the place part .therefore overall I lose £150 

    Straight away I've lost less 

    (My place returns £15 but my stake is £20 so just -£5 on the bet )

    Now take the same 10 races but this time 3 win 7 are 2nd 

    You lose 7×20 = 140 

    You win 3×50 = 150 

    You have made a profit of 10 well done 

    I lose 7× 5 = 35 ( see above ,remember I only lose 5 on the bet ) 

    I win 3 ×30 = 90 less 35 = 55 

    Wow I seem to have made  more than you on a bet I cant possibly win with . 

    Minimum loss to maximum profit .

    If I dont win i get 3/4 of my money back . You keep saying I lose in the place part , that is wrong you forget I get the stake back as well as the profit .

    Minimum loss - 5 ( if placed )

    Maximum profit 30 ( if wins ) 

    Therefore I have turned my 5/2 into a 6/1 

    I only do the flat . Race selection and odds makeup determines a bet . 

     

     

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, Rolemat said:

    It is hardly a debate,it is simple arithmetic that any bet under 4.1 @ 1/4 or 5.1 @ 1/5 is a loss or break even at best.HTH

    Of course it is but your missing the point of minimum loss to maximum gain . Your blinkered to traditional ew betting . Clark's already told you he makes a profit,  I've told you and you still wont have it lol . If your that bothered start a new separate thread no more on here please 

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Rolemat said:

    Sorry to keep on about the place element of MCs bets but to make it absolutely simple to understand the following example shows that backing ew at an average of 6/4 is throwing money away.

    100 bets at £10 ew and they all WIN still means a net loss on the place bets of £700 or £625,I really do not understand how anyone could convince themselves that this makes any sense or view the loss as a small percentage,it is massive and pointless and to me incomprehensible.I hope this is helpful rather than critical.

    For goodnes sake . I'm loathe to get involved in this 'debate ' but I will because its getting monotonous.  You are looking at ew in the normal sense whereas in ew short odds it's a different concept . Have you not heard of 'maggot' bets , you should have if you listen to will hill radio, it's a staple of andy holding . I have made a 5 figure a year living  for the last 11 yrs out of it and although my ' method' is similar its actual quite different as far as bet selection . For me it only works on the flat and I have to find the right sort of race . I wont quote % because that just confuses things . I find a 8 or 9 horse race , the odds need to be ,for arguments sake 10/11 5/2 6/1 16/1 20/1 33/1 50/1 50/1 or similar but you get the drift . On simple few mins study I can discount the 33 and both 50's . I'm going to back the 2nd fav at 5/2 because I'm getting 3 places for a 5 horse race ,in simple terms,     10 ew on a 5/2 , if it wins I get 50 quid return ,( 35 plus 15 ) a profit of 30 quid . If its placed I get 15 return a loss of 5 . With backing ew at short odds it's not about losing on the bet its losing as little as possible , therefore I see it as a what I stand lose ie 5 to what I can win ie 30 therefore a 5/2 becomes a 6/1  . Before you say yes but if you lose you lose 20 ,absolutely correct but if it's done correctly the odd total loss is insignificant.  It took bet victor 5 bets ( 2 actually won ) to cancel my account as unviable .  Others slightly longer , actually I can only do it on BF exchange now . On the flat i can regularly have 20 odd runs of no total loss . I have 11 yrs of every bet struck that I could put up but wont only because I chose not too . My response is only to prove short price ew  ( maggot bets ) works but in the right races and the right odds . I wont be drawn into any debate . I do what I do , I really dont care if you agree or not but its certainly got you thinking away from the norm 

    Racehorse Syndicates

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by roger2256
    Text

    Hi . Glad others have taken the plunge . Just a quick update on the few hair I own on dramatista with archie watson . Just to show it's not all roses and celebrations lol , I bought into this filly because out of loupe de Vega she had good potential and with archie watson an up and coming trainer I though we had a chance at something decent,  still bargain basement but they do win big races dont they lol . Well that was the dream till her first race at lingfield in march where she showed up well till suddenly dropping out the back of the telly . It was found she had sustained a serious injury.  Anyway she had the opp ,her front fore knee was pinned and shes been on holiday since lol . Another years fees due and we still dont know how she will be . Hopefully she will come back and give us some pleasure.  Obviously keep you advised.  Very best of luck to anyone who takes the plunge,  if you can do it do it the thrill is unbelievable. 

    Drama.jpg

    Drama 2.jpg

    IMG_2593.jpg

    Racehorse Syndicates

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Hi Billy,  once you have been to your first meeting as a badge holder you will be hooked.  Not only will you get free entry to the course but also to the owner/trainer lounge ,  free food ( usually three hot choices) , access to the parade ring and hopefully the winners enclosure . You will be brushing shoulders with the games elite , trainer's and owners .

    Also if you go on the stable visits or gallops theres usually a hot drink and bacon butties when your done .

    you obviously want your horse to do well but the whole experience makes it well worth the money .

    I am with middleham park and have a few hairs in a lope de vega filly with archie watson , this is my third 2yo  the other two were colts with mark Johnson one of which won twice ( Wolverhampton and lingfield) and placed three times , only low class 5 but wins a win eh lol . 

    Best of luck with yours you wont regret it 

     

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