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Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/09/19 in all areas

  1. adamross

    Naps - Monday Sep 9th

    4.50 Brighton 1 pt win Barrsbrook 16/1 Bet365
    4 points
  2. 4.20 Brighton - Kennocha 14/1@bet365
    4 points
  3. Perth 4.10 Wise Coco. 9/1 betvictor
    3 points
  4. Doyen Breed 5.15 Perth 8/1 Paddy Power - EW
    3 points
  5. PercyP

    Naps - Monday Sep 9th

    Inteldream 8.30 Wolverhampton (E.Way 40/1 PaddyPower) Sold in April 2018 for £45,000, Inteldream runs in a Wolverhampton maiden for Marco Botti a trainer who does well at this course 125 winners. Inteldream has been unplaced in his two runs over 8f & 9f, so the step up to 12f could prove the key. He has talented apprentice jockey Stefano Cherchi in the saddle claiming a useful 7lbs (his 2019 record is 8 wins from 58 rides).
    3 points
  6. RUG

    Naps - Monday Sep 9th

    Perth 1610 Wise coco 7.5 william hills
    2 points
  7. 5.30 Wolverhampton My Motivate Girl 5/1 bet365
    2 points
  8. bymatrix

    Naps - Sunday Sep 8th

    5.20 Fontwell Shantou Sunset ( each way ) 9/1 Coral
    2 points
  9. chrisgas

    Another Stats System

    My approach to soccer betting like many on here is stats based. Again, like others I have created an Excel Workbook, one for each individual league I follow, containing a number of sheets for calculations and databases. I freely admit it doesn’t rival some Excel sheets on here but it does meet my own personal requirements. I should also state it is in need of a re-write as I have added extra’s on numerous occasions and it’s become messy. However, that said I am able to back test systems reasonably quickly with it. Like others have stated I prefer to find a profitable system that works on the current season rather than a system that works on past seasons. I have found systems that work for 2 or even 3 years out of 5 but in the years they lose, they lose big if followed through to the end of a season. The problem, know when to quit and move on. This applies equally to systems for the current season. I should just state that the data I use is downloaded from www.fooball-data.co.uk. The workbook contains what I will refer to as two strategies. Strategy 1 uses all the data for the current season and strategy 2 uses 6 matches – generally, the last 3 homes and 3 aways. I apply the same set of systems to each strategy. These include a supremacy system, Poisson, overs/unders and BTTS. I also consider the historical odds and a team’s league positions. I found each of these systems on the internet they were free and in the public domain. The next stage involves mixing and matching the various systems using Bayes theorem. When this is done I select what I consider to be the best system with a good strike rate and a profitable ROI. One always needs a starting point so when the season has settled down I look to see where profit maybe found. The following table has been extracted from my National League workbook: This table includes all matches from the 10th August 2019 to 4th September 2019. It can be seen that backing all matches to be an away win during the aforementioned period then, one would have a reasonable profit to-date. The system I am currently using for the National League predicts away wins. The extracted table from my workbook is produced below: Model L7 is equivalent to ‘Strat 1 AW's: Away League Position <12’ Model L9 is equivalent to ‘Strat 1 AW's: M Formula <2.5’ (M Formula is an under 2.5 goals calculation) I will just state I have only followed this system for the last two weeks and the results are as follows: 31/08/19 Eastleigh 1 – 2 Barnet 31/08/19 Wrexham 1 – 2 Stockport 03/09/19 Barrow 0 – 1 Hartlepool 03/09/19 Wrexham 2 – 2 Maidenhead 07/09/19 Maidenhead 0 – 1 Dag & Red Winning bets 4 and 1 loser. However, normally the strike rate % for my systems are usually somewhere between 5 - 12 percentage points better than percentages shown in the first table. That is to say I would expect a percentage figure between 41 – 48%. The current 72% (13/18) for my system is far too big and I suspect unsustainable.
    1 point
  10. Welcome back
    1 point
  11. @Sparky Bear Welcome to PL mate, good to have you on board.
    1 point
  12. there is an easy way for anyone to calculate this - (1/P)^N P is your losing % (e.g. if you have odds of 2.0 its 0.5) and N is the number of consecutive losses you want to look at, let's say 4. So it would take STATISTICALLY (1/0.5)^4 = 16 bets to come across a 4-loss streak..
    1 point
  13. I screwed up. Looked down to see more odds and used BTTS for other matches. If it can count as a winner too, it's just fine. Sorry for mistake and extra work, BH.
    1 point
  14. Lethal angel 1.45 Brighton 11/4 bet365
    1 point
  15. Jimmy2shoes

    Naps - Sunday Sep 8th

    Yeh I know the drill Cheers
    1 point
  16. To clarify (because I still mess up with decimal prices!) the average SP of the winning bets are 2.77 (roughly 11/4 7/4 as pointed out by my fellow punter below!!!) and 2.89, I'd already removed the 1 for the stake in my calculations which is why I foolishly quoted them in my original post. I wanted to clarify because there's no way a 46% SR at 1.77 is going to produce a profit to level stakes! 🤪
    1 point
  17. DrO

    US Open 2019

    In case anyone wonders what I did with the pick - i did nothing. Literally nothing. I just sat there and watched the match. And I made more than a nice profit in the end.
    1 point
  18. England vs Bulgaria Right, after the extreme disappointment of that diabolical Welsh performance I'm switching my attention to England versus Bulgaria taking place later today at 5pm BST at Wembley Stadium. Group A is still very much wide open but a win for the home side here could start to put some distance between a couple of the teams with England moving into a prime position and Bulgaria's hopes hanging by a thread. England continue to progress well under Gareth Southgate. The 2018 World Cup semi-finalists will be keen to get back to winning ways after the disappointment of losing in the UEFA Nations League semi-finals. A victory here will see them stretch their winning run in this group to three wins in three games. The Three Lions have been superb so far with a 5-0 home win against Czech Republic followed by a 5-1 victory away to Montenegro. Bulgaria have struggling so far in this group. Krasimir Balakov's men have only managed 2 draws and 2 defeats from their 4 matches so far. 1-1 draws at home to Montenegro and away to Kosovo were followed by a 2-1 loss away to Czech Republic and a very disappointing 3-2 loss at home to Kosovo. It now leaves them bottom of the group in the precarious position of being 4 points adrift of the qualification spots and no opportunity to qualify for the play-offs right now. This could be a painful game for Bulgaria. They're going through a rough spell at the moment in a group they probably felt they could qualify from before the campaign started. England are very dangerous in attack right now and I can see another convincing victory here for Southgate's men. If I was to back a correct score I'd say 3-0 or 3-1. It's going to be an easy one this. England -2 @ 1.85 with BetVictor Anytime Scorer: Raheem Sterling @ 2.00 with BetVictor
    1 point
  19. BBBC

    Naps - Fri Sept 6th

    1830 Muss Thornaby Princess ew 25/1 @ bet 365
    1 point
  20. bymatrix

    Naps - Fri Sept 6th

    5.20 Kilbeggan Roxys Holly ( each way ) 12/1 Bet365 & 888Sport
    1 point
  21. Steve75

    Naps - Fri Sept 6th

    Ascot: 2.30 Crystal Pegasus please. Thanks.
    1 point
  22. Xtc12

    Naps - Fri Sept 6th

    18.30 Musselburgh - Northern Society - 1 pt win @ 6/1 Bet365
    1 point
  23. LEE-GRAYS

    Naps - Fri Sept 6th

    2.55 haydock hyperfocus 6/1 coral e/w
    1 point
  24. mickyftm32

    Naps - Fri Sept 6th

    Majestic Stone 1.30 Newcastle 8/1 Bet365 - EW
    1 point
  25. Alastair

    Naps - Fri Sept 6th

    Kempton 6.40 Riot Paddy Power 5/4
    1 point
  26. 445l the groove 10/1 bet365
    1 point
  27. Steve75

    Naps - Thursday Sept 5th

    Salisbury: 3.10 Snow Shower please. Thanks.
    1 point
  28. Coco69

    Naps - Thursday Sept 5th

    Clonmel, 17:30, Happy Jacky, 9/4 b365
    1 point
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