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4.50 Brighton 1 pt win Barrsbrook 16/1 Bet365

4.20 Brighton - Kennocha 14/1@bet365

Perth 4.10 Wise Coco. 9/1 betvictor

Doyen Breed 5.15 Perth 8/1 Paddy Power - EW

Inteldream 8.30 Wolverhampton (E.Way 40/1 PaddyPower) Sold in April 2018 for £45,000, Inteldream runs in a Wolverhampton maiden for Marco Botti a trainer who does well at this course 125 winners. Inteldream has been unplaced in his two runs over 8f & 9f, so the step up to 12f could prove the key. He has talented apprentice jockey Stefano Cherchi in the saddle claiming a useful 7lbs (his 2019 record is 8 wins from 58 rides).

Perth 1610 Wise coco 7.5 william hills

5.30 Wolverhampton My Motivate Girl 5/1 bet365

5.20 Fontwell Shantou Sunset ( each way ) 9/1 Coral

My approach to soccer betting like many on here is stats based. Again, like others I have created an Excel Workbook, one for each individual league I follow, containing a number of sheets for calculations and databases. I freely admit it doesn’t rival some Excel sheets on here but it does meet my own personal requirements. I should also state it is in need of a re-write as I have added extra’s on numerous occasions and it’s become messy. However, that said I am able to back test systems reasonably quickly with it. Like others have stated I prefer to find a profitable system that works on the current season rather than a system that works on past seasons. I have found systems that work for 2 or even 3 years out of 5 but in the years they lose, they lose big if followed through to the end of a season. The problem, know when to quit and move on. This applies equally to systems for the current season. I should just state that the data I use is downloaded from www.fooball-data.co.uk. The workbook contains what I will refer to as two strategies. Strategy 1 uses all the data for the current season and strategy 2 uses 6 matches – generally, the last 3 homes and 3 aways. I apply the same set of systems to each strategy. These include a supremacy system, Poisson, overs/unders and BTTS. I also consider the historical odds and a team’s league positions. I found each of these systems on the internet they were free and in the public domain. The next stage involves mixing and matching the various systems using Bayes theorem. When this is done I select what I consider to be the best system with a good strike rate and a profitable ROI. One always needs a starting point so when the season has settled down I look to see where profit maybe found. The following table has been extracted from my National League workbook: This table includes all matches from the 10th August 2019 to 4th September 2019. It can be seen that backing all matches to be an away win during the aforementioned period then, one would have a reasonable profit to-date. The system I am currently using for the National League predicts away wins. The extracted table from my workbook is produced below: Model L7 is equivalent to ‘Strat 1 AW's: Away League Position <12’ Model L9 is equivalent to ‘Strat 1 AW's: M Formula <2.5’ (M Formula is an under 2.5 goals calculation) I will just state I have only followed this system for the last two weeks and the results are as follows: 31/08/19 Eastleigh 1 – 2 Barnet 31/08/19 Wrexham 1 – 2 Stockport 03/09/19 Barrow 0 – 1 Hartlepool 03/09/19 Wrexham 2 – 2 Maidenhead 07/09/19 Maidenhead 0 – 1 Dag & Red Winning bets 4 and 1 loser. However, normally the strike rate % for my systems are usually somewhere between 5 - 12 percentage points better than percentages shown in the first table. That is to say I would expect a percentage figure between 41 – 48%. The current 72% (13/18) for my system is far too big and I suspect unsustainable.

Welcome back

@Sparky Bear Welcome to PL mate, good to have you on board.

there is an easy way for anyone to calculate this - (1/P)^N P is your losing % (e.g. if you have odds of 2.0 its 0.5) and N is the number of consecutive losses you want to look at, let's say 4. So it would take STATISTICALLY (1/0.5)^4 = 16 bets to come across a 4-loss streak..

I screwed up. Looked down to see more odds and used BTTS for other matches. If it can count as a winner too, it's just fine. Sorry for mistake and extra work, BH.

Lethal angel 1.45 Brighton 11/4 bet365

Yeh I know the drill Cheers

To clarify (because I still mess up with decimal prices!) the average SP of the winning bets are 2.77 (roughly 11/4 7/4 as pointed out by my fellow punter below!!!) and 2.89, I'd already removed the 1 for the stake in my calculations which is why I foolishly quoted them in my original post. I wanted to clarify because there's no way a 46% SR at 1.77 is going to produce a profit to level stakes! ?

In case anyone wonders what I did with the pick - i did nothing. Literally nothing. I just sat there and watched the match. And I made more than a nice profit in the end.

England vs Bulgaria Right, after the extreme disappointment of that diabolical Welsh performance I'm switching my attention to England versus Bulgaria taking place later today at 5pm BST at Wembley Stadium. Group A is still very much wide open but a win for the home side here could start to put some distance between a couple of the teams with England moving into a prime position and Bulgaria's hopes hanging by a thread. England continue to progress well under Gareth Southgate. The 2018 World Cup semi-finalists will be keen to get back to winning ways after the disappointment of losing in the UEFA Nations League semi-finals. A victory here will see them stretch their winning run in this group to three wins in three games. The Three Lions have been superb so far with a 5-0 home win against Czech Republic followed by a 5-1 victory away to Montenegro. Bulgaria have struggling so far in this group. Krasimir Balakov's men have only managed 2 draws and 2 defeats from their 4 matches so far. 1-1 draws at home to Montenegro and away to Kosovo were followed by a 2-1 loss away to Czech Republic and a very disappointing 3-2 loss at home to Kosovo. It now leaves them bottom of the group in the precarious position of being 4 points adrift of the qualification spots and no opportunity to qualify for the play-offs right now. This could be a painful game for Bulgaria. They're going through a rough spell at the moment in a group they probably felt they could qualify from before the campaign started. England are very dangerous in attack right now and I can see another convincing victory here for Southgate's men. If I was to back a correct score I'd say 3-0 or 3-1. It's going to be an easy one this. England -2 @ 1.85 with BetVictor Anytime Scorer: Raheem Sterling @ 2.00 with BetVictor

1830 Muss Thornaby Princess ew 25/1 @ bet 365

5.20 Kilbeggan Roxys Holly ( each way ) 12/1 Bet365 & 888Sport

Ascot: 2.30 Crystal Pegasus please. Thanks.

18.30 Musselburgh - Northern Society - 1 pt win @ 6/1 Bet365

2.55 haydock hyperfocus 6/1 coral e/w

Majestic Stone 1.30 Newcastle 8/1 Bet365 - EW

Kempton 6.40 Riot Paddy Power 5/4

445l the groove 10/1 bet365

Salisbury: 3.10 Snow Shower please. Thanks.

Clonmel, 17:30, Happy Jacky, 9/4 b365