BBOTD - 29th of September

[Monterosso]

4:50 Salisbury - Lochan Mor - .5pts e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365 - BOG) Consistent yet frustrating 4 year old who I selected last time out when he finished 2nd of 11 when headed by Esprit De Midas in the final 50 yards of a 6 furlong contest at Haydock Park on very testing Heavy ground. My selection took up the running over 1f out and possibly hit the front too early. He hung right in the run in and could give no more, with more patient tactics in this 18 runner field and a bit of luck he could go one better if running to ability. He hit 1.51 in running last time out after being well backed throughout the day into 11/4 favouritism from 6/1. He has finished 2nd on 7 occasions from 14 career starts with just 1 victory to his name. He is ultimately consistent and has only finished out of the top 4 on one occasion when having his stamina stretched over 7f on the All-Weather track at Southwell. Lochan Mor should have everything going for himself today with heavy rain predicted at Salisbury pretty much ensuring the soft ground on which he excels on. I also think the large field should help him settle, he's tactically versatile with both prominent and more cautious tactics suiting him to equal effect and with his draw in stall 18 of 18 he should have the option to do either. With Salisbury being a track that typically favours the big galloping horse I find it interesting that Michael Bell bring Lochan Mor here for the first time. He doesn't often visit this track and has only came here 7 times this year with no winners but 6 places. Overall, he has a decent 11% strike rate here and this is the only horse he sends to this track today. Young jockey Ian Burns takes off a valuable 7lbs in weight effectively leaving my selection to run here off a mark of 73 with weight carried being 8st 12lbs. That's a sure help and one of his lowest weights carried in quite a while. The most likely chance of Lochan Mor winning a race of this calibre is with ground with some cut in it and he will get that here. His form on Good-to-Soft reads - 2-2-2 and with a bit of luck he could be adding a "1" to that today if all things pan out in his favour. With the assumption of the track suiting him and the ground being ideal I'm expecting a very big run here from the ultra consistent and relatively unexposed Michael Bell gelding. His jockey for the day comes here for only this ride and despite not having the most impressive overall stats from his relatively short riding career he has only ridden twice at the track with a 2nd place and a 3rd place. He must be good value for his 7lb claim and he has ridden 12 times for Bell, winning once. The yard have been bang in form this month and I think they'll be expecting a big run from their only runner at this track and at the moment he's priced up at 8/1 which looks generous to me. I had him as 9/2 clear favourite and I wouldn't be surprised to see him backed into something around that mark today. It's a clearer reflection of his chances and I think he can gain his first win since May of last year if he gets some luck in running and a good ride from his claimer. Regardless, he has a lot going for him here and is worth a medium sized each way bet.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - 29th of September 3:05 Salisbury - Big Issue - Back Disappointing that now only 2 runners remain due to withdrawals. However it does mean that barring accidents this should basically be a piece of work for big issue and an unbelievable chance to return to winning ways. On official ratings he's 26lbs well in here and if he doesn't win I'd be flabaghasted. Bombproof nap. 1pt win @ 1/8 Ladbrokes