Rascal74 Posted September 25, 2010 Share Posted September 25, 2010 Hi Punters, just want to get your thoughts on the following system i am going to try with very small stakes for a while. I call it a closed progressive system which means that if i get a run of losses, rather than chasing i restart. what do you think? Basically I have a bankroll of £150 and i will be betting on a doulbe from one of the following coming in, returns will fluctuate between about 100%and 300% of my first stake. I'll try and be clearer here. I just placed a bet on the following games tomorrow. West Ham v Tot to have either 2,3 or 4 goals in the match combined with Arsenal to beat West Brom either 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 So thats my 1st bet and it's costing 12 units to cover all doubles so lets call it £1.20...if it comes in I expect a min £2.40 return and a max £4.80 return. So we call this bet one. If however it fails my next stake will be 50% more than my previous, so the progression looks like this. Bet 1) £1.20= potential return £2.40-£4.80 Bet 2) £1.80 £3.60-£7.20 Bet 3) £2.70 £5.40-£10.80 Bet 4) £4.05 £8.10-£16.20 Bet 5) £6.08 £12.16-£24.30 Total combined bets are £15.80 at this stage if I have not won I cut my losses and start again. Also if my bet comes in at any stage I start again. So basically I am allowing myself about 5 chances to make a profit, though on bet 5 if the bet came in at min odds I would still be at about £3 loss, though if it came in at max odds I am about £8 in profit. I am wondering if other wins in stage 2, 3 etc would mitigate the poss loss overall even if I win a stage 5 bet a min odds? Coming in at min odds basically acts as a kind of insurance or cover to help me maintain my bankroll, this would happen when my selections score just 2 goals in each game. ie selection 1 ) 2 goals in game and Selection 2) win 2-0. Any other deviation from these results will result in a profit. Naturally when i win a bet i just restart, also when i get to stage 5 i just restart whether i win or lose, so it's a hybrid of flat and prog staking. any math heads want to look into this deeper it would be much appreciated. So whilst it's progressive in someways by restarting and having a bankroll to restart 9 times it's more like a hybrid between flat and prog staking. I am also curious about how often you think this bet might on average come in. How often do games have 2,3 or 4 goals in them and how often does a hot fav at home win by 2,0,2-1,3-0,3-1, and these two bets combined how often could i expect them to come in? I estimate maybe 1 in 3 but it's a but of a stab to be fair , hence why I am posting on here. The idea would be to gradually and very slowly build my bankroll whilst protecting it from the martingale type hazards. So as i said I have a bank roll of £150 allowing me to go bankrupt (to reach my stage 5 limit without any wins) at least 9 times before true bankruptcy hits me. Naturally if i build my Bankroll up to £300 I would then double the stake and so on and so on. Anyway I would appreciate yopur thoughts on this. I will be posting my bets on a daily basis for all to monitor. I just need a strong fav in any match and anyother game wil pretty much do to cover the 2,3, or 4 goals in a game so daily staing is poss. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 25, 2010 Share Posted September 25, 2010 Re: A closed progressive system??? Thoughts please If however it fails my next stake will be 50% more than my previous, so the progression looks like this. Bet 1) £1.20= potential return £2.40-£4.80 Bet 2) £1.80 £3.60-£7.20 Bet 3) £2.70 £5.40-£10.80 Bet 4) £3.60 £7.20-£16.20 Bet 5) £4.80 £9.60-£24.30A 50% ratchet would be £1.20, £1.80, £2.70, £4.05, £6.08????? whilst protecting it from the martingale type hazards.by betting using a martingale variant? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rascal74 Posted September 25, 2010 Author Share Posted September 25, 2010 Re: A closed progressive system??? Thoughts please Thanks for pointing out my "ratchet error, it was 4am and i was half asleep when i typed this, amended now. A Martingale variant, yes if you like but not the Martingale system at all, hence the stop loss after 5 losses. Another way of looking at it is a form of flat staking 9 x 15.80 units with each individual unit having a progressive system with a 50% ratchet/stake increase applied. The aim of this for me is to see whether or not it's possible to double my bankroll. Well time will tell but todays matches i mentioned above are staked so lets see what happens. I would appreciate and stats guys out there who might be able to shed light on how often the selections ought to come in. Cheers: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rascal74 Posted September 25, 2010 Author Share Posted September 25, 2010 Re: A closed progressive system??? Thoughts please Ok so no joy today, can't believe Arsenal lose to West Brom but it's a funny ol game so next bet is for Man Utd to win against Bolton by 2-0,2-1,3-0,3-1 and Rangers v Aberdeen to have 2, 3, or 4 goals in it. Both Games played tomorrow Stake for this selection is now £1.80 meaning this and the previous bet amount to £3 Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rascal74 Posted September 26, 2010 Author Share Posted September 26, 2010 Re: A closed progressive system??? Thoughts please Ok no joy due to Bolton just scoring thier 2nd so next stake is for the Villa wolves match to have 2, 3, or 4 goals in it and for Ath Madrid to beat Zaragoza 2-0,2,1,3-0,3-1. Stake for this combo is £2.70, total stake of all bets are now £5.70. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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