Flat Racing - Thursday 23rd September

[StuSimmy]

15:30 Pontefract I believe its worth chancing with three year old Di Stefano in this race. He makes his debut for the Dandy Nicholls yard in this race and I fancy his chances off a career low mark. Took him three attempts to finally get off the mark at Redcar over todays 5 furlong trip in a maiden race. Beat Mark Johnston's Cherry Bee by just under 3 lengths that day in impressive fashion. Entered handicapping off a mark of 97 and is now just rated 75 after tumbling down in the handicap. He is now 20lbs lower than his first run in 2010 which came at Sandown back in April and although he has yet to place in 2010 I am willing to put my faith in Nicholls getting the best out of him. He did manage two places in Listed company as a 2 year old at Ascot and Sandown, going down by less than a length on both occasions so its clear to see he does posess some ability. Now drops down into a class 5 race for the first time since entering handicap company so if this new yard can get a small revival out of his form as a 2 year old in those listed races then he should well be up to winning a race of this calibre. Adrian Nicholls opts for this one over stablemate Galpin Junior which suggests to me he fancies this horses chances. 0.5pts E/W Di Stefano @ 10/1 (Bet 365 - BOG) 16:00 Pontefract Fallon and Johnston have struck up a deadly partnership in 2010 and they team up together with Submariner in this race. This gelding has had 10 runs in total this year, notching up 3 wins and 1 place along the way. Won with great ease on his debut at Folkstone in a class 5 maiden back in April where he beat a small field by 8 lengths. Entered handicap company off a mark of 87 at Chester where he didn't run the best of races and was then dropped 5lbs which he made a mockery of by romping home at Beverley over 10 furlongs in his next race, winning by 4 and a half lengths. Followed that up with a win at Kempton on the AW in a 14 runner field off a mark of 88. Hasn't found it easy since but is now back down to a mark of 85 which is a mark he is clearly capable of winning off of. Was 8/18 in a hot handicap at Newbury the weekend past, finishing only 4 lengths off the winner. Dropped 2lbs from that and in a smaller field with horses who are less exposed than him suggests to me that he could be ready to strike again. This is a tough contest but I feel there is a lot in his favour tomorrow and he represents the best value in the race for me. 1pt win Submariner @ 9/2 (Bet365 - BOG)

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 23rd September 4:00 Pontefract - Sirvino - 2pts @ 11/2 (PaddyPower) Highly progressive 5 year old in 2009, winning 5 of 6 starts including the John Smith's Cup. Went from a mark of 65 to a high of 101 which is astounding progression. Has had three runs this season, a decent run in a Listed event and came 6th out of 18 at York off top weight on penultimate start. Didn't get the best of runs through that day and should be more suited to the Pontefract track here, also handles any ground, so no problems with the fast ground. He ran no sort of a race last time out, no excuses. He is now dropped 6lbs for that run and seems to have been given a chance by the handicapper. He's only 1lb higher than when winning the John Smith's Cup. Lightly raced with only 13 career runs which is nothing considering he's five years old and he has won on 5 of those occasions. Should get a race run to suit and with Philip Makin on board he has a very capable jockey on top who has won on him 4 times. He knows how to get the best out of him and the smaller field should be a big plus for Sirvino. I think the Pontefract track should suit his style as it's a true test of stamina which he needs and the 1m 2f trip is ideal. There are two confirmed front runners here in Just Lille and Fastnet Storm. They should take the field along at a good clip and I expect the David Barron horse to be suited by this, assuming he's out to try! High Office is the current favourite at 2/1, he won easily by 7 lengths last time out but that was on his favoured soft ground and I'm not sure if the track and quick ground will suit him and at that price he's certainly opposable with a 6lb penalty, although Hanagan back on board is a big plus. Sirvino is very dangerous off this mark despite carrying top weight and should strip fitter for those three runs and looks value at 11/2, I had him as a 3/1 shot in my book and I expect he'll be backed tomorrow. He should put up a brave bid if he's able to run to his undoubted ability. Small/Medium sized bet at nice odds.