BBOTD - 21th of September

[Monterosso]

4:00 Beverley - Jupiter Fidius - .5pts e/w @ 11/1 (Bet365 - BOG) Previously inconsistent 3 year old who has form behind Monterosso and Elenora Duse. (Both Group 2 winners since) He really should of beat those two when they faced off in a Grade 3 Handicap over 1m at Ripon, Jupider Fidius hit 1.06 in running that day and looked a sure fire winner but couldn't repel his challengers. In his next 4 races he only beat 3 horses home and it looked like that effort was just a flash in the pan but he has since come back to a bit of form and has won once and placed 3 times in his 4 runs since. The win came in a claimer here at Beverley when he won quite comfortably over 7.5f, although, it was quite a weak race. He was beaten easily by Miami Gator in his next two runs but that horse was in great form and is hard to peg back when given an easy lead and that's what my selection did. He ran at Newcastle over 7 furlongs next time out, I don't think he has the speed for that trip and was under pressure to try and keep with the leader two out, he looked a big threat at one stage but faded away tamely in the final furlong when headed. He hit 2.02 in running that day on soft ground which I don't think suits his style and today he'll be getting quicker ground and is stepped up to 1 mile and 100 yards, which should suit him. There's a chance that there will be a rapidly set gallop with 3 confirmed pace setters in the race and that could well play into my selections hands when stamina comes into play in the final couple of furlongs. Dale Swift takes the ride on Jupiter Fidius today and he was on board his last twice, interestingly enough he partnered Love U Noo in 3 of his last 4 races for Brian Ellison but instead rides my selection for Kate Walton today. Swift has only ridden 3 times for her and it's interesting he's on board this fellow today, he's certainly great value for his 5lb claim and takes Jupiter Fidius down to 8st 7lbs in weight carried today and that's a certain help. Swift has won 4 of the 15 races he has ridden in at this course this year, which is obviously impressive. My selections run behind the 2 future Group winners was his first handicap off a mark of 76, he has since dropped 10lbs to a mark of 66 which is surely a winnable mark for him, even without a 5lb claimer on board. He's drawn in stall 9 which is a good position to be around a mile at this track, he should be able to get a good position in behind the leaders. He has a decent cruising speed and if he can find that turn of foot he had in that race at Ripon he could prove to be significantly overpriced here. He's actually 5/1 in my book and the bookmakers have him as the 11/1 outsider of the race which I think is crazy. He could well go back to his former inconsistent self and end up last but if continuing in the same vain he may find that extra kick the he had previously and win at a canter off a mark that I think is well below his actual abilities. At 11/1 he's worth a small each way bet with a good draw, ideal trip, ground to suit and a course he has won on previously. He's still relatively unexposed with only 12 career starts and this doesn't look the toughest of races in my eye, he's worth taking a chance on and I think he'll go well. Good luck all. :hope :hope :hope

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD - 21th of September 4.00 Beverley Tamarillo Grove won his maiden very confortably and might be hard to peg back if allowed an easy lead here. Back in distance shouldn't inconvenience and gets decent ground. Races off the same mark so I expect at least a place. 1pt Win 9/2 Bet365