AFL Preliminary Finals, 2010

[jeremda01]

Re: AFL Preliminary Finals, 2010 i put a small amount on swan to take the brownlow. don't think it's too much off topic since its tomorrow night. but yeah i think he'll win, he had a minimum 21 disposals of all 22 games, a career high 99 tackes, he also had many interchanges. so yeah i think he'll win. :):hope

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Preliminary Finals, 2010

Sort of off topic guys but do you think Dane Swan will be the Brownlow Medallist? Generally a midfielders award but I'm likin Brendon Goddard at 15's. Another bet I like is Kieren Jack to be Sydney's highest poll scorer at $4.50. What do you think?

Well, it actually is to do with betting :loon and the Brownlow count is held straight off the Prelim finals, so I'd have to tick it "On Topic' (ps. this is not an audition for a future mod, thank you very much!). A bit of banter mixed in is good IMO but steering things back to a level headed feel is very important for anyone looking to profit IMO. The GF isn't far off even money IMO. I remember the way Geelong supporters were talking at this stage of '08 and I've been around long enough to already notice that Collingwood supporters are behaving exactly the same way they did in 66 70 77 79 80 81 02 & 03. Anyone who knows psychology knows it filters through to a club. I suspect Collingwood are going down again. I piled on Swan @ 2.32 a few weeks ago and his true price is probably odds on IMO, about 1.85, I'd say.

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Preliminary Finals, 2010

Sort of off topic guys but do you think Dane Swan will be the Brownlow Medallist? Generally a midfielders award but I'm likin Brendon Goddard at 15's. Another bet I like is Kieren Jack to be Sydney's highest poll scorer at $4.50. What do you think?

riz followed brownlow very closely this year. Have gone for jack for sydney into Boak (port) Jack has had an outstanding year, but minimal polling history.. whereas counterpart adamn goodes is the polling king, i think he is nice odds. Cant see BJ polling well he has a bad rappore with the umpires, and this will hinder him, i think lenny hayes takes st kildas polled well last year, and is the kind of player umpires love, bit of flash and at the bottom of every pack, and puts on many game winning tackles. Id say swanny will win however if anything is too go from last year.. he wont.. i think the tatts hinder him and everyone knows how well ablett will poll. I had a play on pendles at start of the year.. hope he comes thru, good luck whatever you do chose!

[J_R_Ca-H]

Re: AFL Preliminary Finals, 2010 ABC Radio had a run through of their Player of the Year award today and had Alan Eskander on running through odds etc. A suggested bet by Adam White was to rather than pick one player ie. Ablett or Swan the value was to take the Number of Winners Votes. Eskanders form had Ablett and Swan locked together on 34 and ABC Radio had Swan well over 30 votes. Sportsbet.com has No. of Winners Votes 31 or more @ 3.80. I reacon and I will be having a piece of the individual votes market, therefore they don't have to win just poll well. G. Ablett 29 or more votes @ 5.50. Cracking value I believe, he has played better this year than last year IMO and has kicked the goals which is important. Also other team members haven;t been as good as in previous years. Lenny Hayes to make Top 5 @ 3.50 is also good value but Saints steal so many votes off each other and it costs me money every year :tongue2 Mark LeCras 3.50, Ryan Griffen 10.00, Deledio 3.50, Mundy 15.00 maybe worth a little play in most for club markets. Not saying I am betting on all this just throwing some ideas in for some of you who are looking for some value. In the end the Brownlow is usually about two winners, the medallist and the bookies ;) Good luck if your having a go but. :hope

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Preliminary Finals, 2010 Like the call on No. of winners Votes jrcash:ok bulldogs is close anyone of boyd, gia, cooney and griff could win it so he does rep some value. Am on lecras as his 2 big games should be enough priddis is a muppet 53% kicking effiency guy does nothing GL

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Preliminary Finals, 2010 Found this online which you guys might find of use....

[J_R_Ca-H]

Re: AFL Preliminary Finals, 2010 Thanks Gooch. The Winner 31+ Votes is 4.50 on Sportingbet. :unsure Considering the media is saying Swan is going to score well into the 30's I am a little cautious as to why the bookies have this so high. Thanks Henry I zoom zoom zoomed the page. Convinced me to have a little dabble on Nicky Dal @ 41 & Lake @ 17s to make the Top 5.:hope Highly speculative I know but you have to have something running if you are gonna sit up and watch it although hopefully ONE will do a better job that Bruce7. I had a little on Swan @ 19s long ago so hopefully that comes through.

[riz31]

Re: AFL Preliminary Finals, 2010 Swanny at 19's!! That's daylight robbery lol. Yep i'm gonna go for Kieren Jack into Travis Boak too. Will prob add Swan, Hodge and Ablett highest team poll scorers as to increase the odd. Can't see those 3 not winning their markets.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Preliminary Finals, 2010 M.LeCras West Coast Most Votes 4.25 @ Centrebet I've got to agree with you guys who've identified LeCras. Watching all the games he's certainly been a better player than Priddis who's probably appeared in their best more often due to numbers but not effectiveness. I've had a very close look at it. Priddis has been listed in the best about 13-times and LeCras 9-times, but having a look at gammes they've won or done well in it does look more likely LeCras will out poll him. I'd suggest about 7 votes to 5 on probabilities. Selwood at 17.00 or (Any Other Player @11) is a chance and certainly overs while Waters, Cox & Embley have done well in games they've lost and probably won't poll more than a few votes each.

[J_R_Ca-H]

Re: AFL Preliminary Finals, 2010 :puke Absolute disgrace.... Coverage and result.....:puke Well done to anyone who took Juddy:ok

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Preliminary Finals, 2010 The biggest upset result I've seen, IMO:puke. Priddis 13-votes, what's going on there! :puke The favourite won team votes for each club except Melbourne.

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Preliminary Finals, 2010 Umpires are pretty blind :S priddis 13 votes, with kicking eff at 53% judd winning with 30 votes :SS wow if anyone else got any h2h i saw them about 20mins before brownlow were great Hayes bt Goodes Pendlebury bt Hodge, Judd bt Goddard, Selwood bt Harvey all shoe ins would of been a terrific night if a deserving winner won..:\

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Preliminary Finals, 2010 Guys, this may sound rather far fetched but I believe we've all just been had. In all my years I've never known of a winner where it not only didn't feel right but also the winner himself was totally 'Robert Klompped' that he'd won. I'll point to a significant betting irregularity that I believe is highly suspicious. You may recall that about two thirds through the count they had a bookmaker betting in-run showing their odds as something like 1.70 Judd & 2.25 Swan and Matty Campbell saying "now's your chance to get some value on Swan", and I imagine a lot of sharp punters will have done just that. Reason I should say this is, somewhat dumbfounded by Judd's short quote given he surely couldn't keep on polling out of his rear like that, I checked Betfair and noted the market was completely upside down, with Swan the favourite at 1.70 and Judd 3.30 with plenty liquidity and plenty activity. There would be no doubt the Betfair market was being driven by sharps with their charts and whatnot in front of them.