Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept

[bowles10]

BBOTD in here please

[bowles10]

Re: Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept 4.40 Sandown Rare Tern will be all the rage with Prescott's impressive record at the track. However, good ground is the key to that one and 6lb rise to contend with. I like the look of Cecil's MISS ANTONIA who is drawn low which helps here, it likes the distance and is becoming a typical consistent cecil horse. Goes up 2lb for a defeat at Kempton last time out which isnt ideal however finished in front of Bramshaw that day who ran a close 2nd on Saturday here in a similar race to this. The price should be good also as the fav will be supported. Hoping to get around 5/1 on this one. 1pt win, will have to settle for SP i suppose with no bookies pricing up yet

[silverhaze]

Re: Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept Hi Mr bowles10! I have to confess straight off that I am a real newbie to the punting/betting game and am still learning all about form etc, so can you help me with some small info please? Is Rare Tern only good on Good to Soft ground? And in fairness, if the weather keeps up, in a few weeks we'll be betting on sea-horses :lol

[Monterosso]

Re: Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept 4:30 Yarmouth - Revered - 1pt @ 11/4 (PaddyPower - BOG) Lightly raced 3 year old filly who has very solid claims if running to ability here. She has only had 4 races to date, 2 as a two year old and 2 this term. In her debut she was a fast finishing 3rd over 7f in a decent maiden race at Salisbury. There has been plenty of winners and good form out of that race and she ran very very green that day which probably cost her from being closer to the eventual winner Thrill, she wasn't whipped that day and was given an easy time of it and it was a very impressive run on similar soft-ish ground that she'll more than likely get today. She looked a sure fire next time out winner and duly obliged when winning over the same 7f trip at Newmarket in an even hotter contest which has also had a number of winner since. She was off the track from that race in October '09 and returned in June for her debut handicap race off a mark of 85 over 1m 1f. She seemed to need the race that day and ended up 6 lengths behind eventual winner, Beachfire. They then opposed each other once more at Sandown three weeks later, with Revered 7lbs better off at the weights. My selection ran very well that day and looked the likely winner a furlong out but Beachfire ran on very strongly and got the better of the Stoute horse in the final 50 yards to get up by a neck. The form of that race hasn't worked out too much in my horses favour but Beachfire won next time out off a mark of 91 in a hot handicap at Goodwood, which is obviously testament to the Stoute horses abilities. That race was over two months ago and Michael Stoute hasn't brought his filly out since, she was entered in a far hotter class 2 handicap four days ago but was declared a non-runner to head for this race instead. I expect she'll have improved and will strengthened up over the last couple of months, she should certainly have the ability to take a race like this and even with a 3lb penalty for that run last time out she really warrants her favourite tag here. The way she handled the cut in the ground on debut after she got going makes me think she'll relish it in the long term and with Yarmouth's ground currently Good to Soft (Soft in places) I think she has an excellent chance of making her record 2 win from 5 runs. Sir Michael Stoute had a baron spell in the last few months but has hit form once again in the last week with 7 of his last 18 (38%) charges winning, which is obviously impressive. Stoute doesn't visit Yarmouth too often of late but he has an impressive 22% strike rate at the course. Ryan Moore gets the leg up on Revered and he has been on her on 3 of her 4 career starts. He should certainly know what to do with her and will hopefully prove a good asset to her chances here, he also has a good 20% strike rate when riding here and a very impressive 30% strike rate when riding here for Stoute. If coping with the couple of months off and if she hasn't had a set back since I certainly see her as the one to beat. The Mark Johnston trained Autumn Riches is the main danger in my opinion, but he's 6lbs for his win at Windsor last time out and instead of Fallon on board it'll be Royston Ffrench, who I do not rate as a good jockey. He has also never been tested at this trip and was raced over 8f on his last three races, shaped as if needing further but I'd prefer something that's tried and tested and I suspect Autumn Riches and Geneva Geyser to be vying for the lead with the latter having a tendency to set a very strong gallop and if that happens I think it'll suit my selection very much and may not be ideal for the Johnston horse. The other danger is the Jim Boyle trained Hear The Roar, he was unlucky not to win last time out but this is a lot tougher and I don't think his current price of 10/3 represents value here and Pat Cosgrave doesn't have a good record when riding at Yarmouth, which is enough to put me off along with the fact that Boyle hasn't had a winner for 4 weeks. He's also an unknown on softer ground and is certainly opposable at that price although he's highly progressive and could have more to come but the Stoute horse is more like my idea of the winner. I have Revered priced up as 6/4 clear favourite on what she has done so far, so obviously the 11/4 is extremely attractive to me and I expect she'll be backed tomorrow if everyone doesn't come for the Johnston horse as does happen oh so often. It should be an interesting affair and hopefully the Stoute horse will be staying on best of the lot as I expect her to and prove her undoubted ability. She's the one to beat and 11/4 is generous. 3 point win and my only selection of the day.

[Aidymac]

Re: Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept The Jailer - Kempton 5:40 This horse is in good heart at the moment, won last time out, is a course winner, is very well drawn and i have an amazing draw statistic as to why i fancy this horse tomorrow. Ryan Powell who rode a super ride on Magical Speedfit for me today taked the ride and takes a valuable 7 pounds off. Now for the amazing statistic. Out of 76 races at Kempton over 6 furlongs, 24 of them winners have from from the very outside Stall. Yes you heard it, 1 in 3 winnersover this trip at Kempton come from the very outside Stall and that stall happens to have The Jailer in it tomorrow. This horse is fresh and in good form, it won its last race at Ffos Las and was placed on its previous 2 runs. Is in good nick. Outside draws are favoured at Kempton over this trip so as already mentioned Box 8 is a super draw for it. Even though more times than not it does not do very well at Kempton, it has won here before so course form can be a plus!! Very interestingly Ryan Powell has only ridden this horse once before and that was its last run where it won so as it stands the jockey has a 100% strike-rate on the horse. My summarisation is that they are running this horse fresh again whilst its in form. It should make a bold bid 1 Point win @ 10/1 (Bet365) BOG

[punterpete]

Re: Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept 3.55 Yarmouth Nouriya Win @ 5/2 >Paddy Power Won a fillies listed race last time out to follow up the maiden th maiden win at Newbury. Stable and jockey in fine fettle and should progress further here today.

[markmywords]

Re: Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept 18:40 Kemp Kayaan - The way Adoyen Spice bolted up LTO at course she is worthy fav but just above evens I shall chose to ignore and try the EW bet with Kayaan. Stepped up from the mile LTO for his first run for P Sly and showed a good run at 10F was late out of the stalls and then held up until 5F out slowly moving forward until the last bend and showed a good turn of foot and a strong finish to finish third. This three year old is stepping up in distance again to 12F and will have to improve further but I feel 8/1 bet365 is a good 0.5EW bet.

[andyjkmak]

Re: Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept 4.40 Sandown Fleeting Glance might have been a shade lucky to win last time out as she was headed, but then the leader jinked badly and allowed her to win by about a length. However both were well clear and given that she is certainly open to more improvement I fancy her to go in again. The extra furlong should suit and as long as the ground stays good I expect a very good run. 1 Pt win 5/1 Bet365

[jayalexander]

Re: Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept 5:10 Sandown - Salgredo Was running off a handicap rating of 100 in 2007 and racing in listed company following two back-to-back cl4 10f victories. No further win until a cl5 10f in June this year, at 9-4. Followed that with a cl4 10f 2nd place (nose) in July, at 9-11, and is 9-7 today. The 6yo has raced at various distances over his career and has been most effective at 10f, winning 3 of 6 and has only been out of the placings once (which was unfortunately on this course) but today's going is ideal. George Baker is in the saddle, with a relatively good win strike rate of 13% on turf and taking all of the above into consideration I can't see why the gelding has been given such long odds! Maybe it's due to Jonjo's poor recent record, but I'm ready to halt my slide down the BBOTD table by gambling on a WIN today :ok 16/1 Betfred - win

[StuSimmy]

Re: Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept 15:55 Yarmouth The statistics point to three year olds having the key in this race having won 7 of the last nine runnings of the race. I will be going against that stat today as I fancy the top weight Flying Cloud to take all the beating. Is the highest rated in the race - 109 - and drops down into a listed race for the first time having run in Group races ever since her winning debut. Has won 2 group races from 7 attempts, a group 3 race in France in soft conditions over 11 furlongs and a group 2 race at Ascot over 12 furlongs in GF ground. Has definately improved again this year, finishing 2nd in a group 1 in Ireland in just her second start of the season. Has run over three different trips since but looked back to form in the Soft ground at Windsor last time out. Finished 3rd of 5 but was only 1 length behind the winner, was a bit short of room at a key stage which lead to her being unable to quicken up so she has an excuse for not finishing closer in my opinion. Thought she didn't disgrace herself in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks at York on her penultimate start, she was obviously rated Godolphin's second string that day, going off a longer price than their other entry in the race who Frankie Dettori chose to ride which is also significant as he would have had the pick of the two horses. Back onto today, I think the fact she has already won two groups races shows she is the class act in the race and although there are a couple of improvers in the race I do believe her class will prevail today and will finally get her first win of 2010. She will love todays soft ground and the trip won't be a problem either so there is lots in her favour today. Cheetah and Nouriya are two three year olds that are on the upgrade and both from decent yards and they would definately be the main dangers for me. Win Flying Cloud @ 5/2 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[chris34]

Re: Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept 5.10 Sandown Status Symbol landed a massive gamble at kempton in a maiden last time out and makes handicap debut today off an ok mark, didnt beat much that day and is probably rated simply on the way he travelled into the race and in the manner he won it. He has been a strong traveller in all his races to date and is proven on turf having run in 2 NHF races showing plenty of promise and could make light of a harsh looking mark if improvement continues! 0.5pt e/w status symbol 8/1 corals

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept COASTAL BEQUEST 2.10 Yarmouth. 0.5 points each way. Debutant for Sir Michael Stoute, and would be the second string on jockey bookings. However, I feel Richard Mullen is a very good jockey and the fact the ground is soft will suit his Irish bloodlines, so at around the 30 mark on the exchanges, I'll have a go.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept 2:35 Beverley - The Shrew - Back I can take a hint when I see one. Richard Fahey has a debutant running in this race, but it jumps off the page that Hanagan does not take the ride and instead rides the favourite for John Gosden. Gosden is a trainer for whom Hanagan rarely rides, so this looks a monumentally significant jockey booking. The Shrew improved markedly for his debut 6th when coming 2nd lto on his 2nd start. That was over c&d which is a big plus at Beverley, has a good draw today and everything points to him breaking his maiden tag here 1pt win @ 5/6 Bet365 BOG

[Falbrav]

Re: Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept CINDERKAMP 2.20 Sandown. 0.5 points each way. Not shown enough to win this, but I think there's plenty more to come and today we'll see it. This track, trip and ground should suit and at around the 20s mark on the exchanges, I'd be very interested.

[wafer]

Re: Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept 5:40 Cmon You Irons - Won here at Kempton last month and can do so again with the same jockey onboard.That jockey is Keiron Fox and he claims 5lb and the horse is off the same mark as LTO. 1 pt Win bet @ 11/2 Stan James

[Trotter]

Re: Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept Sand 4.05 - Dunn'o - EW at 20/1 BOG with Stan James Game front running handicapper who loves it around Sandown's 8 furlong course Stepping up to listed company today but the race could be run to suit him. As he's 'only a handicapper' they might let him have a soft lead and he could be difficult to peg back if they do ! Only 6 runners but a couple of them might be unsuited by the trip - Bronze cannon wants further, Dandy Boy best at 7F ? - Riggins and penitant disappointed last time out, Skysurfers looks OK. I think there's a decent chance Dunn-o will make the first two places !

[fintron]

Re: Best bet of the day wed 15th Sept 5.10 Sandown WIGGY SMITH - won on penultimate start and followed up with fair second Epsom lto. 10/1 on sport life tissue, 16/1 avail with lads. 16/1 lads, 1 pt win