BBOTD 14th of September

[Aidymac]

Green Lightning - Haydock 4:30 This is a very interesting horse tomorrow and has a lot in its favour in my opinion. It has the vital draw on the outside, the trip is fine, stable is in form, was well gambled on last time and failed, has won on both heavy and good ground so ground is fine and has an interesting sequence of runs as i will explain shortly. I have an interesting draw statistic also. The draw at Haydock is absolutely vital , outside stalls at 1 mile plus seem to do exceptionally well BUT the very outside stall WINS roughly 1/4 of all the races at 1 mile + and thats an amazing statistic in my opinion. This horse is drawn in Stall 10 tomorrow on the very outside. The trip tomorrow is fine as it has won over 1 mile and over 1 mile and 4 furlongs so it should be capable of handling the 1 mile and 3 furlongs tomorrow no problem. Mark Johnston's stable are in fine fettle. The man is a genius if you ask me, and you should never take form at face value with his horses as they go in and out of form very regularly but no doubt he is always 1 step ahead of the handicapper which makes him so successful. This horse was very well backed last time out. Was backed into odds-on favourite only to finish last of 8 at Thirsk. That run was so ridiculously bad to be true. Wasn't it? It surely cannot be that bad? Money back tomorrow? The ground tomorrow is no problem at all in my opinion. The forecast tomorrow is good ground with soft ground on the home straight. It should be fine as it won on Heavy ground at Nottingham and good to firm ground at Newmarket. Maybe its a coincidence but this is a lightly raced horse and it has had an interesting sequence of results for its runs. It is as follows... Unplaced-Unplaced-Won-Unplaced-Unplaced-Won-Unplaced-Unplaced-????? Maybe its just a coincidence but going by the sequence its due a big run tomorrow.... My conclusion tomorrow is that the horse is much better than its last run. It is an out and out galloper and on that soft ground in the home straight it should suit its running style. Perfect draw and im expecting a big run. The danger is Amazing Blue Sky for me but the Ruth Carr stable is really struggling for winners so i really fancy this one to place if not win tomorrow. 1 Point win @ 11/2 (Hills) BOG

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September 4.50 Lingfield Little Edward looks massively overpriced on recent efforts and current mark. Was rated at 92 at first start of this season now down to a realistic 68 and last handicap win comes off 89, has won 5 times over this course and been running well of late and goes especially well around here on lingfields fast home turn. 0.5pt e/w little edward 15/2 Hills