"Value"- With a Twist

[Evertonboy]

I read an article in the racing post a few weeks back, it was written by the football tipster Kevin Pullien. He said something that got me thinking. The article was about the City and Liverpool game, and revolved around the fact that at the time Man Citys title odds where around half the price of Liverpools but the 90 minute prices didn't really reflect that and in his opinion Man City represented value. So, I re-read my Confessions of an Odds compiler book to see if I missed anything first time. I came across an interesting point, which is basically some firms prices are all about margins and don't take into account various other odds that could be related. My next plan of action is to seek out "value" bets in the above way and hopefully build a profitable system around it. To get started, the basic principle will be; A bet is deemed value when the Match prices are out of line with the events outright Market. What is deemed out of line will not be based on a strict value or percentage at te moment, it will just be judgement. An example: Prices with Betfred US Open Ouright : Wawrinka 33/1. Youzhny 33/1 Match price: Wawrinka 5/4. Youzhny 8/13 As you can see, both players have just shy of 3% chance of winning the tournament outright according to Betfred, yet there match prices don't reflect this. Obviously the match prices will be based around H2H and other variables so that it is why I shall only be trialling it for the minute. Any thoughts or suggestions?

[JosTheelen]

Re: "Value"- With a Twist When you look to Betfair, you will see that the odds for Wawrinka and Youzhny are quite different. Wawrinka is about 70/1 and Youzhny about 45/1. That seems to be more realistic. I think that Betfred doesn't have good numbers for the winners.