BBOTD - Friday 3rd September

[StuSimmy]

15:10 Musselburgh Cracking sprint handicap this and many of these are in with chances. I am going to persist with Titus Andronicus once again who has a decent track record with one win and two second places from three runs at the track. His win came in April last year for Kevin Ryan where he won a three year old handicap by 2 lengths off a mark of 74. Has not been in the greatest form in 2010 for new yard Richard Fahey, who has been having a great 2010 it must be noted. I felt he was possibly a bit unlucky over course and distance on his penultimate start, didn't really get the gaps when they were needed and when he finally got in the clear he did stay on but by then it was too late and Rasaman was already a couple of lengths clear. I do fancy Titus Andronicus to reverse the form off 6lb better terms and I feel he will hold the form against several of the others who line up again today from that race. Is due to go up the handicap by 2lbs so he has a chance to win off this mark of 80 today before doing so. Flopped at Epsom LTO but we all know that can be an awkward track for some horses and he clearly did not take to it. Has placed off higher marks previously and I definately feel he is capable of winning off this sort of mark. I rate the consistent Sir Geoffrey as the main danger. 0.5pt E/W Titus Andronicus @ 7/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD - Friday 3rd September 3:10 Musselbrugh - The Nifty Fox - .5pts e/w @ 8/1 (PaddyPower) Very speedy sort who has won 6 times over 5f and has won once over C&D with numerous other fine performances here too, he tends to go better when the ground isn't too fast and as it stands it's ideal for him. He usually runs well around here, raced 9 times and has only finished out of the top 4 on one occasion. He's draw high which doesn't seem to be the place to be but his win here came from a high stall and with the pace more than likely coming from Whozthecat in stall 2 I think he'll end up getting a nice pozzy in behind the leaders and he'll hopefully run on when the gaps appear. His one course victory was a hands and heels hob, he broke well from the highest stall and ran alongside the pace setter and just flew inside the final furlong without needing to be hit. That was from an 8lb lower mark and on soft ground but he has improved for racing in better company since then and his last win came from 3lbs lower on Good ground at Catterick in a tougher race than this, he was bumped and short for room in stages but won comfortably in the end suggesting that he's ahead of his mark but hasn't followed up since. His best effort since then was over C&D, from a low draw, and on rapidly fast ground. He hit 1.09 in running and looked the likely winner but got reeled back by Rasaman who he re-opposes here. They were over 3 lengths away from the rest but my selection gave Rasaman 8lbs in weight and this time he will be getting 3lbs from him (after jockeys claim) so that's effectively an 11lb swing for an defeat of a head. They opposed each other last time out, with my selection coming 3rd and Rasaman running on late to win comfortably but his 6lb penalty should be enough to see him find it hard to win. He has to give weight all round and I think he'll find it tough to beat The Nifty Fox off these terms plus a career high mark and there's a massive price difference with Rasaman being 9/2 and The Nifty Fox is currently best priced at 8/1. My selection is trained by Tim Easterby who has seen his stable hit a decent run of form over the last few months and 3 of his last 7 sent out have won suggesting they're in flying order. He sends out 3 here tomorrow to a course that he has an impressive 15% strike rate and 4 of his last 15 runners here have won. David Allan is on board him tomorrow and interestingly it is his only ride of the day at a course that he does well at and he's not riding either of the other Easterby horses which is unusual. This will be his 40th ride on The Nifty Fox, of which he has won 6 times and has never been out of the top 4 from 6 rides on him at Musselburgh. He gets the best out of this horse which is especially obvious when you notice that the horse has won only 1 other race without Allan on board. My selection was a very well backed 2/1 favourite last time out, hopefully that was money from connections which suggests he'll be taking advantage of his falling mark soon and getting another victory which has eluded him since October of '09. The horse clearly has ability and is in fine fettle, he should go well tomorrow and I think the 8/1 is very overpriced, I had him as a 5/1 shot in my book and even 12/1 was available earlier on but that bookmaker has since taken down their price until the morning. If that price comes up again tomorrow I'll be going back in for more but at the moment a small win bet on The Nifty Fox will suffice and in my opinion he should be favourite. Everything's going for him tomorrow and he should be on the premises once again but it's a tough race and not one for big stakes. Here's hoping his return to the winning enclosure is today. Did I overdo it with my write up? :$ :lol