BBOTD Mon 30th Aug

[StuSimmy]

16:10 Ripon This race has been priced up already and I feel there is a lot in the favour of the current favourite Uphold and although this race is full of consistent runners, I believe he is the one to beat today. First of all he has won 2 races from three, both over this trip of a mile so the trip will be perfect for him. Dettori on board for the first time and this is his only ride of the day which is very interesting considering how many meetings are on. The horse himself is still on the upgrade and is sure to progress, form of last race has been boosted with 2 winners coming from the race since (both those were down the field too), the ground should be fine as well and finally he has a great draw in stall 17 from 19. High draws are definately favourable over the mile here, mainly due to the right turn heading into the straight. Dettori has a fantastic record at the track with a 30% win rate and a 52% place rate. He also has a 16% win rate when riding for this trainer which is also a nice record. Another positive for me is that Barry Hills sends just this one horse to Ripon which is a track he does well at with a 26% strike rate. The more I look into this, the more I feel this one will win. He will likely be up with the leaders and therefore avoids the risk of getting caught in traffic and being denied a run in such a big field. I'd rate the main danger as Watch Amigo despite being drawn in stall 8, lightly raced himself and makes the step up to a mile today. Has been fairly consistent so far in 2010 and is definately one to keep an eye on, place claims at the least I would say. Win Uphold @ 7/2 (Bet365 - BOG)

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD Mon 30th Aug Last bet.. 3:10 Epsom - Oldjoesaid - 1pt WIN @ 10/1 (Bet365 - BOG) It's only a matter of time before this fellow clicks again, he's a long time without a win, April 2008 to be exact but that was off a mark of 19lbs higher and on soft ground, he'll get cut in the ground today and 3 of his 4 of his career wins have come with cut in the ground, all of which were off higher marks than todays. He hasn't run with much zest this season but that's due to the ground in my opinion bar one race where he was 15/16 on softer ground but that was over 6f which he's ineffective at and he's over an even 5f now at a track he has experienced twice which included one good 4th place on quick enough ground, whilst the other was a write-off due to the rapidly fast ground. Neil Callan takes the ride today for Kevin Ryan, they have a decent 14% strike record together. Callan hasn't been in great form of late but he hasn't had too many decent rides of late but will hopefully be able to change that here on this fellow who should be an ideal ride for him. There will be a good pace in the race which will suit him and he's drawn perfectly in stall 7. He has moved from 14/1 into 10/1 overnight also so he's being backed from somewhere so hopefully today is the day. I'll be very surprised if we don't see him come back to himself on this ground and put in a good effort, he looks well overpriced to me and on his day is the best horse in the race. Should be a 5/1 shot in my opinion, has everything going for him and is worthy of a medium each way bet and he's my Nap of the day.