Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

[Crouch Potato]

The last Grand Tour of the year starts today. Some of the big names in this event are not here for various reasons. Reigning winner Valverde is suspended. Previous winner Alberto Contador has chosen not to compete. Neither has the other big rider from Spain, Samuel Sanchez. The powerful riders of Lance Armstrong's Radioshack team are also absent as the team themselves were not invited. Second and third place finishers from the Tour, Andy Schleck and Dennis Menchov are both riding. This time, though, Andy will ride for brother Frank. Points Classification Winner - Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver @ 17 E/W 1/4 1-2-3 Sportbset There are two key factors and several ancillary factors that make this one appealing. Firstly, the route of the tour is largely backwards from what you would traditionally expect. The first two weeks has a reduced number of sprinting opportunities, whilst the last week has the better chances for the fast men. The other key factor is that a lot of riders will view this as preparation for the World Championships in Australia next month. Taking these two points and combining them leads to several reasons as to why a traditional fast rider wont win this: 1) Some sprinters may simply abandon the tour either to stay fresh for the Worlds or because they physically can't handle all the climbing in the opening two weeks. 2) Some sprinters may survive the mountains but the energy used to summit them will make them less effective in the sprints. 3) Some sprinters may simply be eliminated on time. 4) The teams of the sprinters will lose domestiques and may not have the fire power needed to reel in the breaks that escape on what would otherwise be considered a stage for the sprinters. 5) Riders who aren't sprinters will find themselves leading or high up in the classification, consequentially ensuring their participation in contesting the jersey. Had the flat stages come first, the non-sprinters wouldn't have bothered, and thus there performances over the mountain stages would be a bit of 'too little, too late'. As far as my pick goes, Rodriguez is for me, the standout sprinter of all the climbers. You may recall his win in the Tour de France where he stayed with Contador up a short, tough climb and sprinted to victory. There will be several finishes or lead ins to the finish with a similar stage profile and Rodriguez will thrive on this. Furthermore, in a straight sprint between he and the other big climbers, he would definitely beat the likes of Menchov and the Schlecks. Taking the E/W is a smart choice as even though it is still quite possible a sprinter will win this jersey, it is less likely that all of the sprinters will finish the tour and place in the competition. For the record, the key sprinters of the race are: Mark Cavendish, Tyler Farrar, Danielle Bennatti, Alessandro Pettachi, Thor Hushovd, Oscar Freire and Alan Davis. IMO, if Rodriguez performs to his abilities, half of those sprinters wont be fast enough and consistent enough to finish ahead in this classification, whilst of those that could, the aforesaid factors should hopefully play it's part. If Rodriguez doesn't perform to his abilities, then it wont really matter anyway.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Vuelta Winner - Frank Schleck @ 4.33 E/W 1/4 1-2-3 Sportsbet Frank Schleck comes here with fresh legs after an early exit from the tour. Though this likely hurt his brother in that event it could prove to his benefit here. The first significant factor here is the lack of competition. Contador, Valverde, Basso, Evans, Sanchez Gil are all absent for various reasons, as are the snubbed riders from Lance Armstrong's Radioshack team. Of those riders present, Menchov and Nibali clearly pose the biggest threat. Menchov rode the tour though, and I would have doubts about his ability to repeat the form he showed in July. In the past when he rode the Tour after the Giro he always struggled and the Tour to Vuelta schedule has a similar length of time between events. Nibali rode the Giro but not the tour and should be fresher. However, he has still done more racing than Frank Schleck this year and I feel this could be a significant factor. Also in the favour of Frank is the absence of big Time Trial kms. There are just 46km of ITT in this tour and Frank should be able to limit his losses. The size of those losses should be small enough that he will be able to reclaim them in the mountain stages, particularly given that his number one helper will be none other than brother Andy. Hard to see him not coming top 3 if he finishes, thus making the E/W bet here very appealing value.