Over Under 2.5 goals Factors

[kaizenalpha]

Hi - am new here so apologies if this has been discussed at length elsewhere before. I'm particularly interested in trading in the over / unders markets and am trying to use some logic to continually improve on the percentage of matches that finish under 2.5 goals. For example - I've done a very small back tested against the English Prem last year (380 matches) to find that if you exclude the following : Home Team odds 1.91 the strike rate for matches ending with less than 3 goals is around 42.5% - my objective is to try and reduce this number down further as low as possible whilst including as many qualifying matches as possible. I intend to apply this criteria this week to about 40 different seasons across multiple leagues as I'm sure that there will be differences in leagues. I'm looking at options to trade in the unders market when the first goal is scored early and the prices rise quickly but having already tried to find matches that are still likely to end with no more than 2 goals - giving me time to trade out - accepting that there will be losses along the way. Any suggestions on other factors that can be considered that would reduce down the percentage. I'm working through league percentages for over/unders and various fundamentals like form, motivation, significance of game etc... to try and build a ratings model that might fit this (haven't really found a ratings system yet that is better than predicting less than 42% of unders). All thoughts and suggestions welcome - happy to post my progress and findings on here as I go. Al.

[allthethings]

Re: Over Under 2.5 goals Factors I am finding that the best-priced under 2.5 is a solid bet, no matter what the situation. What I did was play the best-priced side and total in every league for a while. When the best-priced total was under 2.5, it was the best...55-48 at last count (it reached about +15 games at one point), and with all those wins at better than evens. Under 3 was even better...13-5 so far. Remember, these are situations where the game is the league's best-priced total for the week, so it's typically when a blowout is expected by a heavy favorite, with O3 priced at 1.5 and the U3 priced at 2.15. O2.5 was running about 50-50, but with plus money. Sides were not successful using this strategy. My theory for why unders are best: The public loves overs, and results are random. The odds frequently get crazy, with everyone and his mother jumping on. One word of caution: It's risky in super high scoring leagues. For example, don't do this in Iceland or Adeccoligaen in Norway.