Ascot - Friday 23rd July

[StuSimmy]

Ascot

Time	Race	Distance	Entries (NR)
2:10 PM	John Guest Maiden Fillies' Stakes	6f	11 (0)
2:45 PM	John Guest E.B.F. Maiden Stakes	7f	7 (0)
3:20 PM	Woodcote Stud E.B.F. Valiant Stakes (Fillies' Listed) (Rnd)	1m	9 (2)
3:55 PM	John Guest Brown Jack Handicap	2m	9 (0)
4:30 PM	Newsmith Capital October Club Charity Handicap	1m 2f	5 (0)
5:05 PM	Saco Serviced Apartments Handicap (Str)	1m	9 (0)

15:55 Ascot This 2 mile handicap looks a tough nut to crack and you can make claims for several of the horses in this race, especially since 4 of them lined up against each other over course and distance just 2 weeks ago at the Royal meeting. My selection lies with one of the four and either of the 4 could potentially land this race. Keenes Day was blinkered that day and I don't think he appreciated them at all and it seemed as if it knocked his concentration a bit, in saying that his record on turf is poor, 1 win from 15 with 0 places whereas on the AW he has won 3 and placed twice from 7 runs. Blinkers are off today so we will see how he goes. Satwa Gold ran a good race in 3rd, especially since his odds suggested he was one of the outsiders (33/1), ran on well towards the end and should have strong claims again off the same mark. Tom Queally has only been on board twice and that form reads 21 so he seems to get on well with the horse and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him ride the horse to another win. Desert Recluse was 6th in the race, has won 5 handicaps this year and is likely to still be progressing, has a weight allowance for being 3 years old and Kieren Fox also takes off 5lbs so could be dangerous. This leads me to my selection for the race - Hevelius - he finished 5th in the race after running on really strongly at the end. Did not get a clear run when 3 furlongs out and was forced a bit wide before running on strongly so could possibly have finished closer if he did not have to be pulled out so wide. This was his first race over the trip and judging by that effort it looks sure to suit, with a bit more luck in running today he could be a big danger. He has a had a string of seconds where he has traded at a short prices in running, I think the main reason is that he does run on strongly at the end of a race but just can never reach the leaders it seems, this could be due to being denied a clear run or making a move too late so hopefully Kirby can make a move at the right time today and steer him home in first place. Colloquial and Aim To Prosper are also worth mentioning, the former won LTO in good enough fashion and only faces a 4lb rise for that, only his 3rd run this season but after more than a year off track that is definately worth noting but the fact he is 9 years old puts me off a bit. The latter is a course and distance winner and only 3lbs higher than his last win. Anyway my vote goes to Hevelius. 1pt win Hevelius @ 11/2 (Bet365 - BOG)

[Monterosso]

Re: Ascot - Friday 23rd July Opposing you. :tongue2 3:55 Ascot - Desert Recluse - 2pts @ 5/1 (Bet365) Tough race to work out but this one really has improved rapidly since his opening handicap mark of 48 back in February, he's rated 92 now and has been rapidly improving of late including a 6 length win in a grade 3 handicap. Was sent off favourite in a hot Handicap over C&D 2 weeks ago but got bumped 2f out then 1f out and couldn't really land a blow but was still only 2.5 lengths away from the winner in 6th place. Really could of done better with a clear run. It was also his first try over 2 miles that day and with the added experience and proof that he'll stay I feel he'll be on the scene even more so today. He's the second highest rated horse in the race with a Handicap mark of 92, but yet due to being a 3 year old he's in receipt of a 17 pound weight allowance plus he has a top young 5lb claimer on board which means he's carrying just over 1st 7lbs than he would if racing against his fellow 3 year olds, that's a massive weight difference and I always feel weight is vital over such long distances plus with that added to the horses undoubted ability I feel he could be bang in there with a chance. Kieren Fox is an excellent 5lb claimer and in my opinion he's a better jockey than Martin Lane who would of been expected to be riding and he's a 3lb claim. It is also Kierens first ride for Pat Eddery and it interests me that he has been required for such a tough race, it's also his only ride here and the only horse Eddery sends to Ascot. Desert Recluse will only be carrying a featherweight of 8st which will come into play near the final couple of furlongs when every other horse is getting tired, I feel he has the ability to take advantage of this with his perfect mix of speed and stamina and kick on in the final furlong to run them into submission. The only problem I see is where will the pace come from, possibly the outsider of the race, Centennial, who may take it up and hopefully set a quick pace as this will suit my selections chances. Lots of dangers in the race, no point going through them as claims can be made for a good few of them but I'm siding with the bottom weight to take advantage and come in at a nice price, smallish bet for me.