>2.5The4th

[20silkcut]

I've been visiting this site for some time now and have picked up some excellent info/ideas for my various >2.5 goal betting strategies. Unfortunately I've so far been unable to put any of it to profitable use. Being a software developer by profession I have had 3 attempts so far to develop the killer betting application which will churn out half a dozen winning bets each weekend. Truth be told, I end up spending more time making the code perfect than worrying about the results it produces. So to cut a long story short I'm having another go and keeping it simple (Excel and a smattering of macros at the very most). I decided to post here as I hope it will help focus my efforts in trying to make this effort work. I ain't much of a back tester (just don't have the patience to input months or years worth of results) so will be starting the system very simply and refining it as I go along. The system is a 'Fixed system', however, I am running it as a paper-trail exercise at present whilst I refine it. I would expect by Xmas to have a refined system (for possible consideration in the systems league) or have consigned it to the bin and be busy on version 5. The current system is so basic I will not detail it for fear of derision. It is however solely based on current league tables with obvious focus on the goals for and against columns (I expect last 5 games will quickly come into the picture as well). It will try and predict the number of goals that can be expected in each game and the 5 highest scoring games (with 3 or more goals predicted) will make that weeks betting selection. Leagues considered will be the Premiership, Championship, League 1 and 2, SPL and Scottish Leagues 1 through 3. As already stated I hope to refine things over the weeks to come and will outline any changes prior to posting selections. The starting bank will be 100 pts and each bet will be 2 pts regardless of odds or bank balance. This weeks selections (remember this is a PAPER-TRAIL exercise, a semi-trained chimp with fixture list and pin could probably outperform it at present) :- Saturday 20th November Arsenal v West Brom Derby v Sheffield Utd Swindon v Hull Stirling v Berwick Selection process only provided 4 possibilities this week. I wonder if this is a good or bad omen :hope Just remembered can't get any odds at work :( All odds will be from Betfair, will post them later when I get home.

[snyena]

Re: >2.5The4th I don't mean to sound negative, but if you don't include the odds in your calculation, where does the fundamental (for betting) concept of value come in? Good luck with your system though. :)