Kempton 14th July (eve)

[Spooner]

19:20 - Sahafh @ 11/10 365 (bog) Sahafh should take the beating in the maiden race at Kempton this evening, as always you run the risk of bumping into a strong newcomer but she holds the best form of those who have ran, 3rd at Newbury on debut looks ok and she'll come on for that, my worry would be Hannon's newcomer but not seen much support in the market for her yet. Even still, with this one having had a run she may be that bit sharper.

[chris34]

Re: Kempton 14th July (eve) 8.20 Kempton Shamir is one of only 2 3yr olds taking on elders tonight over the mile, drawn 1 again which is no good thing but did overcome that last time out but didnt really beat too much home which is a real worry in this strong looking field for this class 4 handicap and third place certainly didnt boost that form recently. Red Somerset is probably one of the most exposed runners in the lineup but ran a VERY solid race last time out when staying on far too late after the runaway unexposed useful looking clockmaker had flown the nest runs off the same mark tonight with Atzeni back in the saddle and has won off higher marks before. 0.5pt e/w red somerset 17/2 hills

[Lars]

Re: Kempton 14th July (eve) Busy with this card tonight! Albeit only small stakes for me. Will post first race in post of it's own as will be in a rush otherwise! 18:20 Kempton I like the look of Archie Rice, but at double the price I'm thinking of looking to Essej. Seems to be first choice of the Hiatt yard who are in fairly good form at the moment and is a horse that does like the artificial surfaces, despite many of it's wins coming at Southwell.Won it's maiden here over CD back in 2008 so although a while ago, he does act on the track. Was below par last time when getting all his own way at the front but that was after a break of two months so perhaps he needed the run and will strip fitter tonight. Bit of a poor race and James Rogers takes off 5lbs, a jockey I saw give a really good ride at Nottingham one time and got a front-running pace just right, hopefully he can do similar today. Essej 0.25pt EW @ 8/1 Ladbrokes BOG

[Lars]

Re: Kempton 14th July (eve) 18:50 Kempton 2yo nursery so bit of a lottery of course, going for an outsider in Sky Diamond, who should do better now in a handicap. Has relatives who acted at this distance of 7f so the step up in trip on it's previous races should do some good. Flopped on his third start in maiden company but his previous two efforts were much more encouraging and on those performances, has a chance here tonight. J Given has a decent record here, and when teaming up with Paul Mulrennan, they have a 2/5 (40%) strike rate. Has a bit to improve but possible that it can happen. 0.1pt EW @ 25/1 Stan James BOG 19:50 Kempton Despite the poor draw, Song for the Moon can run into the places at double figure odds I feel. Was upped to 1m2f here LTO and obviously didn't stay that far, and the drop back to 1m (where she ran well in a maiden) will suit much better. Has been eased 4lbs since her opening mark and that will give some assistance. Balding horses been running consistently and this one has a decent chance, despite being drawn in the car park. Serhaal hasn't shown her worth just yet but tonight may just be his time to shine. Opening mark of 70 is justified really, but he is unexposed at this 1m trip and from past performances, the extra distance looks needed. May even need further but willing to give him a chance from an average draw. When Stoute and Richard Hills team up at Kempton, they have a decent record of about 25%. Song for the Moon: 0.2pts EW @ 12/1 William Hill Serhaal : 0.1pt EW @ 8/1 Victor Chandler More to come...

[Lars]

Re: Kempton 14th July (eve) 20:50 Kempton Lodi hardly ever wins which is a worry but the majority of his starts have come on turf. Of his three wins, 1 of them came here at Kempton and doesn't run here very often as well. Last time he did, over CD he finished a very close up 4th, that was off 7lbs higher. Has been slowly dropping down the weights, and even with some encouraging performances recently, namely his 4th to Catvio Cavellino, where he was heavily eased but still only finished 4l behind. Hopefully the return to Kempton will bring some kind of revival and George Baker on board, who has a fantastic record at Kempton, may mean they mean business. Lodi : 0.1pt EW @ 9/1 StanJames

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Kempton 14th July (eve) 8.50 Kempton 3 bets for me in this race as it's quite a competitive one. My main bet is Copperwood at 15/2 VC. This one has been progressing nicely on the a.w winning 4 of his las 8 starts on the sand, including once here at Kempton. He went close off a 1lb lower mark on his last start on the a.w at Lingfield but travelled well that day and looked a likely winner a furlong or so out so still looks capable off this mark. Trip is preferred and as said has won around here before. Usually held up he should get a decent pace with a few front runners in the field. Staking slightly less i'll also be on First Service at 22/1 VC who shaped quite well last time out. He's still lightly raced with only 6 starts to date. First time out this year was a poor run but improved next time out, wasnt given the best of rides being held up quite a long way off the pace and not given a hard time but stayed on fairly well. That was over a mile in a class 4 handicap, today is dropped in trip to 7f which he won his maiden over last year and in grade. Looks like he'll be held up so the pace of the race should suit and is dropped a further 2lb from lto. Will also have a small saver on Army Of Stars who runs well around here, has preferred trip and is well handicapped with Sophie Doyle claiming 5lb, just slightly concerned he may find one to good but will save to make sure.

[Falbrav]

Re: Kempton 14th July (eve) SAHAFH 7.20 Kempton. Lay. Form of debut looks good in context with the form on offer for this race, but this is on the aw surface, which should be fine on breeding, but you never know, and she's up against several very unexposed types, who could be anything. Therefore, at around the 8/11/4/6 mark, I'd much rather be a layer than a player, irrespective of the end result.

[Spooner]

Re: Kempton 14th July (eve) 21:20 - Via Aurelia @ 7/4 Hills (bog) Went close fto in handicap company, up 8lb for that effort but I still think she can take advantage of a lowly mark. A field of 14 line up for this and whilst the price isn't a great one, I expect the field to be well strung out and she looks the one to beat.

[Monterosso]

Re: Kempton 14th July (eve) 8:20 Kempton - Licence To Till - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365) Well bred speedy colt who had a good two year old campaign where he showed lots of speed and potential when sprinting, came back this year racing on turf and wasn't impressive at all but now switched back to polytrack on which he has raced twice, coming 1st and 3rd in a decent handicap. He won his maiden routing the field by 8 lengths over 7f at Lingfield when making all to win easily, hasn't tried those tactics since but with only one other front runner (Cobo Bay) in this race I feel he could be trying to press him for the lead, drawn high which is ideal here and with his return to polytrack we could see more improvement. Certainly looks overpriced to me, and is in receipt of an 11lb allowance due to being a 3 year old. Joe Fanning takes the ride for Mark Johnston and both of them have been in great form of late, banging in winners left, right and center. Fanning is a very capable jockey with prominent horses especially and has won on this horse before, he may be able to get that extra bit of improvement needed. Stepped up to 1m and should stay, has that perfect blend of speed and stamina and may eventually go on to be a better horse than this, dropped 5lbs since his only handicap race on the AW and it and the combination of the weight allowance could see him run a good race. It's a very tough one to call but Johnston's horses usually go well around here and he has a 16% strike rate. Small, tentative each way bet for me but certainly look overpriced, the price is due to his turf form this season I'd imagine but he doesn't seem to settle on turf at all and looks the type to do well on AW surfaces, he has some decent form behind a Group performer as a 2 year old also and carrying bottom weight here could help put him in the mix. It's a tough task but at the odds he's worth a go.

[Spooner]

Re: Kempton 14th July (eve) Nice lay Falbrav! :clap

[Spooner]

Re: Kempton 14th July (eve) 20:50 - Lodi @ 9/1 Boylesports (bog) e-w Very open looking race, Lodi went close in October under George Baker over C&D off a mark of 75, runs off just 68 now after a few poor efforts but recently has not been beaten far over this 7f trip, think this one is ready to strike anyday.

[A.Pthebeast]

Re: Kempton 14th July (eve) good call on army of stars ram:clap

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Kempton 14th July (eve)

good call on army of stars ram:clap

Cheers, bit disappointed i only had a saver on that one. At least analysis was correct with 3 of the first 4 home, poor start by Copperwood didnt help his chances also.

[Evenstephen]

Re: Kempton 14th July (eve) 9-20 - Hayek 1pt each way 7/1 Ladbrokes The form line doesn't look special but Willie Jarvis may have found a good opportunity tonight. Last beaten 14 lengths by Side Glance (Won a decent handicap at Ascot recently) in a race which has produced 10 winners since then and then beaten 12 lengths by Meezaan (ran respectably in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot) at Lingfield on his final start. Half a length ahead of Hayek was Allannah Abu who won at Catterick this afternoon. Joe Fanning has a 35% record with the trainer's 3 years olds and I expect this horse to run well in the last. :ok