AFL Rd. 14.

[TazaD]

Likin' the look of a few totals this week...hopefully the books play along. Anyway, first things first... ...how do we rate Brisbane without Brown? :\ Tempted to be on the Lions here @ +20.5, but a big [admittedly expected] loss to the Doggies...even a kinda half, not surprising loss to the Tiges last week... ...meh...very much got a Carlton v. WC look about it tho... ...will definately be looking towards a total tho...it's very much got a Carlton v. WC look about it...;) :lol Richmond SU (2.15) {Flemington Sportsbet} Can't see why Tige's wouldn't be favs here. Bradshaw back this week I guess, possibly Kennelly too, but Richmond are playing as well as anyone right now. Winning games at the bookends...the (equal) second best team (behind Dogs) for Forward/Back ratio numbers in their last 4 games (1.82 F / 2.21 B)...Teams simply have to beat them in the middle to be able to win the game. Swans not a big I50 team at all on the road...av. just 43...51 being their best @ a pretty terrible Port right now... ...even so, Rich av'ing 49 in their last 6...51.4 if we take out the Saints. Terrible record v. Swans, but mostly as BIG dogs (haven't been favs in last 10)... ...Team playing better football shouldn't be 2.15. :ok Crows -9.5 (1.92) Jumping on this one now...will probably rise with Hille missing again. I said last week that I've been impressed with the Crows at home lately... ...back to their (historical) Neil Craig midfield defensive best! +10 I50's now on the whole season @ home...have topped 53 in each of their last 4 aswell!!...in fact 65 and 60 last 2!! :eek... ...that's god-awful news for a Bomber midfield who have given up 60+ in each of their last 3. [Funny how Hille has missed 2.9 of those 3 games ;) ] Exactly the same conversion rate over the last 4 games (2.08 each), Crows going better at home tho (1.94)... ...although their D can still be a worry (pretty stable @ ~1.85), sheer weight of I50's should ensure at least 4 more shots. SHOULD be well and truly enough! (Although with Ess straight kicking and Crows not-so-much... :spank) I do like one more spread...but it's definately the time of the year when the books start severely under-pricing "certain" winners. 4 games @ 6 goals or more...wouldn't at all be surprised to see those h'caps go 2-2... ...How the hell does a team av'ing -10 I50's in their last 4 games (-16 last 3!!!) become a 40 point fav? ...or a team av'ing 83 ppg in their last 5 start at over half the tonne!! :cow ...or, even a team with more than half their forward-line missing... ...either way, people will back them, nothing surer. You'd be brave to be on any of the dogs tho. (Ash, you out there? :unsure :lol ) [fwiw, I do like the Saints, but happy to wait for some more lines. :ok

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Agree with the Crows line Taz. Plus with Fletcher and Pears missing from their leaky defence as well. :dude

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Just goes to show what a poor judge of public perception I am!! :lol Crows -7.5 {Flem} ...Can you believe that??!! Giving up an I50 every 2 minutes or so, and as Henry says, hardly a backman left on the list, and they come in 2 points??!!! :eek :beer [Just waiting for some odds, but will be fairly interested in having a sneaky peak at the Crows for top scorers of the round. Should get some decent odds, given Coll, Geelong will be big favs...] ...and, speaking of hilarious under (over?) [stoopid! :lol] reactions... Saints -32.5 (1.90) {TAB} After I give the world a spray about being fav-focussed, the best team in the comp gets a goal discount! :dude ...cause Baker missing will make all the difference...I mean, which Melbourne player do we dare let run loose now... :unsure :rollin Saints are playing as well now as any time in the season, won their last 5 comfortably...3 relatively tough games...ok, 2 Geelong and @ Freo...av'ing +12 I50's in their last 6 games...and defense is huge, allowing a shot just every 2.5 entries!! :eek Amazing...almost unbelievable, given they are also holding teams to just 43 I50's, which is best in the comp. I have no idea how Melbourne score here...av'ing just 17.75 shots in their last 4...just 37 entries (@ -21!!! :puke) It really is just a mis-match. Saints have won last 3 meetings by 79, 37 (Gold Coast), 47... ...Dees have lost their last 7 @ the dome, by an av. of 47 points...inc. a 26 point (11 shot) loss by a comparitively rubbish Kangaroos this year. Unless there is a whole lot more injury/suspensions I'm not aware of (oh good lord, Colin Sylvia is back!! :eek :lol ), low 30's here doesn't make much sence. Re: Totals...Have seen the TAB Match Scores now, and may get a decent Carlton/Bris look...although now Fev out I doubt it...but, given it's a lone night game, the total is just about guarenteed to rise 5-6 points during the day. [Your average Joe sure does equate points to entertainment :eyes ]... ...still, I reckon my 'hope' is a stretch... ...stretches? Dogs/Hawks under 150 @ 3.25!!! :eek LOL!!! Come on public...don't you remember how the Dogs are a free-flowing, high scoring team...and the Hawks have Buddy!!! BUDDY!!! ****, hey?...looks like the world isn't as stupid as it looks after all! :lol (On a brighter note, given a nice day the Adelaide/Ess total looks like it will be very low again ;) ) ...Worth having a look at the Pies now they've slid back to a far more realistic mid 40's spread? :\

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. It's about the time for long term bets... :eyes ...a couple of CRAZY prices I reckon. As a massive un-fan of long termers, these stand out as stand outs!... St. Kilda minor Premiers [6.50] {Cent} Already shown to be the best team in the comp...and looking likely to get Riewoldt back in the next 3 weeks or so... ...1 tough game v. Collingwood... ...Brisbane @ 'Gabba should be ok...5 of last 6 @ Dome...last game @ Crows could be a danger... Geelong, as I said in the main bit, missing 90% of their forward line... ...won't (shouldn't!) hurt this week, but Hawks @ MCG, Crows @ AAMI 2 of next 3, plus a Collingwood game to come... ...it's such a 50/50 prop [man, even if we slip the Pies in (who I legitimately don't think will] it's a 1/3 shot]...6.50 is utter madness!!! :dude Wooden Spoon...Melbourne. [17.00] {Widely available} What now?! Do they win another game? Saints, no. @ Freo no. @ Brisbane, no. @ Port, unlikely. v. Hawks, no. ...leaves home games v. Ess, Syd, Rich, Roos...may sneak one of those... ...but again, a crazy price for the worst form team in the comp right now, given the Crows are a certainty to beat them, and Richmond are in solid form... ...leaves... ...Wooden Spoon...West Coast. [2.25] { Luxbet} Yeah, saver...but a saver that still makes $$! :tongue2 Eagles still reasonably steady at home...but just as likely to "rebuild" any time soon. Home games v. Adelaide, Bris, Carl, Nth are all winnable [in regards Melbourne finishing last], but won't win any road games. Dangers: Port, have Hawks at home (can't travel), WC, Melb at home...even the Crows could be a "final" for them... ...Tiges; Swans this week, Nth MCG, Crows, Melb, Port all MCG... Simply can't believe Melbourne are 17.00. [No smiley can describe! :lol]

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Rd. 14.

Crows -7.5 {Flem} ...Can you believe that??!! Giving up an I50 every 2 minutes or so, and as Henry says, hardly a backman left on the list, and they come in 2 points??!!! :eek :beer [Just waiting for some odds, but will be fairly interested in having a sneaky peak at the Crows for top scorers of the round. Should get some decent odds, given Coll, Geelong will be big favs...]

Looks like its around 15's Taz

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. And sure enough, like clock-work... ...total opens at 180.5, now up to 189.5! :clap Carlton v. Brisbane under 189.5 Lions just don't score on the road. Haven't topped 90 away from home this year, haven't topped 100 in their last 10 in Melbourne, they av. just 66 ppg in their lat 6 in Vic! (From late last year) As I mentioned earlier, they have very similar raod stats to WC, who kicked 76 v. Carlton @ the Dome a couple of weeks back. Clearly Brown and Fev out make things all the better. Blues aren't a big scoring team, av'ing a bit over 24 shots in their last 5...even at 30 shots (which they've achieved just twice all season) 15.15 = 105, which I doubt very much will be enough to get the 190. :cheers EDIT: Yeah, saw that Henry, but when I posted I forgot all about Freo at home. They could really run up a score on Port (if they kick straight). Think it's wiser just to wait for the game total and have a solid look at the 'over' then. :ok

[J_R_Ca-H]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. I agree and have jumped on board only at 185.5 @ 1.95 which has now slipped to 1.98 with sportsbet.com.au.:eyes Bris Eti Avg this year is 72.5 albeit only two games throw in their other Melb game @ the 'G with a 53, and Carltons Eti Avg is 89 with a high of 129 vs STK and 60 Low Vs Haw. Combined thats only 161. Their combined avg for last 5 is only 163 and for whole '10 is only 184. Yes its @ Eti with a roof but Bris has lost two forwards and in Round 3 it was 107 - 88 with Brown and Fevola having 10 between them.;) Its gonna be a long weekend lets hope its a profitable one :hope GL Fellas. :ok

[J_R_Ca-H]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. :rollin Phew.... Nothing like a .5 going your way :nana I don't know how it stayed at 185 but I was glad to hear that siren :ok :cheers

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Rd. 14.

:rollin Phew.... Nothing like a .5 going your way :nana I don't know how it stayed at 185 but I was glad to hear that siren :ok :cheers

Was thinking about your 185 JR whilst watching the game. Well done mate :beer

[DeMMa]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Tonight. Under 166.5 & Under 150 Jumping on these both early! pouring here in the city ;)

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Ladson might not come up tonight. Expect Petersen or WhiteX to replace him.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Game of the year! :cheers 3. Hodge 2. Lake 1. Gilham Back to you later Taza, been busy.

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. :beer

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Adelaide v Essendon Over 182.5 @ 1.90 Eskander, Luxbet. Both teams are 6-7 this number but you can adjust that by 3 (combined) on account of playing conditions causing unders, wheras the conditions appear great tonight and hopefully the dew stays off which does't seem major threat according to the forecast :hope. Combined these two are 7-4 at night. Most importantly Adelaide's good form has arrived in the past five matches where they've been over four and the under was 174 against Brisbane in difficult conditions. Essendon (6-7 over) are 5-3 for their last eight - the Sydney game stayed under only due to changed playing conditions at 3QT. You'd expect it's Knights style to take the game on given they are weakened and more of same from Adelaide.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. :ok The number is a bit high for me to take tbh, but certainly expecting the Crows to rack up a score. Game of the year last night, and I havn't seen one second of it!! :@ Out for a "farewell" (of sorts) last night at some wanky lounge bar with a jazz band not a tv! :wall Spent most of today driving around, then sleeping! :lol Go the Eagles!! :unsure :beer

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. You know Sidebottom is out for a first gamer?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14.

Adelaide v Essendon Over 182.5 @ 1.90 Eskander' date= Luxbet.

I've laid off on this. With all the dew :$ there's lots of fumbling. Two early second qtr goals bumped things up and I doubt it'll be over. Be nice to hit exactly on both though.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Yeah, night games in Adelaide specifically always seem to be slippery and relatively low scoring. I didn't realise until the Friday it was at night, but at least one team scored. :tongue2 (Hopefully no real damage done in the re-think Ash. ) 4-0 this week...2 wins today by a total of 6 points...a couple of near perfect results re: the long term bets... ...I'm a karma kinda guy so something big and nasty is in the pipeline for sure!! :sad :cheers

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Yeah, looks like my Adelaide dew blunder was about the only error in this whole thread - we even stooged the enemy on St.K-Melb h'cap. Well done team :clap. Moreso July, August for the dew if I'm correct. Of coarse, as it turns out, it would have been wiser to wait on a ground report but as it only ever turns out the price only holds up if I do go early. Fortunately at HT the books still thought it was edging over. Anyway, hopefully that result won't hurt the Adelaide totals trend at Subi next up. BTW, I notice Luxbet offering team totals - not sure if other books do it? With mid to high 2.30's Richmond available late I marginally talked myself out of it, noticing it was O'Keefe's 200th, damm! Talking about karma, not a wise comment by Worsfold a couple weeks ago :$!