Tell me why this won't work.

[DimPaul]

Hi, newbie DimPaul here. :loon So I have been betting on football for a couple of weeks and made a decent profit (too lazy to post details) using the... ummm... method ("system" sounds too advanced) I am about to describe. Being dim and lazy, I am posting this in order to sucker some number cruncher here into telling me why it will not make me a profit in the long run. Feel free to give me any amount of heat for being dim and lazy and bad with numbers, as long as you tell me something useful at the same time. Here goes. Only bet on strong teams home against weak teams (strength determined by their positions in the leagues and nothing else (for reasons of laziness)). Only make worse bets than 1.50 at my current bookie (too lazy to shop around), with 1.25-1.44 preferred. Bet one fifth of the bank on each match, with the objective of making a profit of one fifth of the bank each week (or something like that, can't be bothered to work out the details). Why is this stupid and insane? Anyone? DimPaul :\

[DC]

Re: Tell me why this won't work. Hi DimPaul and welcome to the board (or bored in your case). Why don't you post up some picks and results for a bit and maybe you can see for yourself if it's a stupid, insane idea? Or will you be too lazy to even attempt this? Danny

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tell me why this won't work.

Why is this stupid and insane? Anyone?

You've said it yourself:

(too lazy to shop around)

Bet one fifth of the bank on each match

Oops, just realised this is a joke. Bastards :lol .

[DimPaul]

Re: Tell me why this won't work.

Oops, just realised this is a joke. Bastards :lol .

I take that to mean that placing such a large percentage of the bank on each bet is your main quibble with my "system". OK, despite my dimwittedness I can see why that might be a valid point.

Why don't you post up some picks and results for a bit and maybe you can see for yourself if it's a stupid, insane idea? Or will you be too lazy to even attempt this?

Oh, if I must. I'll follow your suggestion for as long as I can muster the energy. Restating the "system": - Only bet on strong teams home against weak teams (strength determined by their positions in the leagues and nothing else, except whim). - Only make worse bets than 1.50, with 1.25-1.44 preferred. - Bet one fifth of the bank on each match, with the objective of making a profit of one fifth of the bank each week. (DO NOT use this "system". It is stupid and not a little insane.) Starting bank: £100 Picks: 19/11: Köln - Erzgebirge at 1.40, £20 (Köln tops Bundesliga 2, Erz is 9th) 20/11: Chelsea - at 1.30, £20 (Chelsea 1st, Bolton 5th) Bayern München - Kaiserslautern at 1.33, £20 (BayM 2nd, Kais 15th) This is so exciting I'll have to take a nap. DimPaul :\

[Datapunter]

Re: Tell me why this won't work. It won't work be.. cau.... se...... :zzz

[Tocegti]

Re: Tell me why this won't work. It won't because my placing bets worth only 20% of your bank, and at such short odds, you will need a to get quite a few bets to come in, to add up to your aim of winning 20% of your total bank amount every week! And as everybody knows, not all favourites come in every week!

[DimPaul]

Re: Tell me why this won't work.

It won't because my placing bets worth only 20% of your bank, and at such short odds, you will need a to get quite a few bets to come in, to add up to your aim of winning 20% of your total bank amount every week! And as everybody knows, not all favourites come in every week!

OK, another valid point. Of course, if the three matches I've picked do go my way, I think I will have made those 20 percent. Making three bets is something even those of an extraordinarily lazy nature sometimes find within their power. On the other hand, if I lose just one... Nahh. DimPaul :\

[Norfolk Enchance]

Re: Tell me why this won't work. Whoever this is - why not just make your point? Why be an arse about it?