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Royal Ascot discussion

bowles10
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Trotter

Trotter

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Re: Royal Ascot discussion

the 1st race could be the best race of the week with Paco Boy taking on Goldikova with Rip van winkle thrown into the race also
I was just about to post exactly that ! What a showdown.......... I fancy Paco Boy to beat the wonder mare............I guess you have to worry that the Ripper might not be ready first time out, as per most of O'briens.
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Trotter

Trotter

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Re: Royal Ascot discussion I think they've moved some races ? I'm sure the Prince of Wales used to be on day one........and the Kings Stand didn't. I assume they've moved the Kings Stand to encourage foreign runners to run in that and in the Golden Jubilee ?

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bowles10

bowles10

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Re: Royal Ascot discussion

I think they've moved some races ? I'm sure the Prince of Wales used to be on day one........and the Kings Stand didn't. I assume they've moved the Kings Stand to encourage foreign runners to run in that and in the Golden Jubilee ?
kings stand has always been 1st day with the jubille on the saturday, they moved races round a few years back but its only 6 races a day which has been the norm for a while
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Trotter

Trotter

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Re: Royal Ascot discussion

kings stand has always been 1st day with the jubille on the saturday' date=' they moved races round a few years back but its only 6 races a day which has been the norm for a while[/quote'] I had a dozen years off (on a break !)..........so i do tend to think of things as they were 15 years ago.............:unsure
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bowles10

bowles10

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Re: Royal Ascot discussion Weds 4.25 Royal Ascot - Royal Hunt Cup Key trends 12/12 - Ran to an RPR of at least 100 9/12 - Carried 9st or lower 11/12 - 4 & 5 yo 11/12 - 2nd or better at least once during the season 10/12 - between 1 -4 runs this season 11/12 - Has won cl 3 or higher 1/12 - Favs (last year fav won) The effect of the draw Drawn 1-10 (8 of last 12), 28+ (3 of last 12), middle draw (1 of last 12), Significantly the last 8 winners have been drawn 14 or lower. Significant age stat - The record of horses aged 6yo+ is very poor over 11 years with 1 winner & 7 places from 101 runs. 4yo's reads 5-21-169 & 5yo's 6-8-86. In % terms, this reads, only 8% of horses agred 6yo+ have won or placed in this (4yo 15.38%) (5yo 16%). So i will be taking out the 6yo+ horses in this field Also, i will look significantly at the draw as although pace is always an issue, the last 8 winners being drawn 14 or lower is a key stat Will post again once the final 30 are named

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jtw1

jtw1

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Re: Royal Ascot discussion Tuesday ROYAL ASCOT 2.30 Queen Anne Stakes Grp 1 8f ----------------------------------------------------------- 14/14 were returned at 7/1 or under , only 1 was FAV. 14/14 were aged 4 or 5 y-old. 13/14 had ran that season , but no more than twice. 12/14 had won at least 3 times in their career 10/11 with a BHA rating , were rated 115+ 9/14 had won at GRP 1 or 2 grade , since the race was upped from Grp 2 to Grp 1 in 2003 6 of the 7 winners had won at Grp 1 class. 0/14 fillies have won from 9 runners inc the great SOVIET SONG . GODOLPHIN have won 7/14 . STOTE has won 3 AP O'BRIEN - 2 7/14 had ran [ but not won] in that seasons LOCKINGE STAKES 3/14 had ran in the DUBAI DUTY FREE STAKES , but all 3 had a run after that before running here. Quite simply PACO BOY :ok Only 3 in single figures in the betting , GOLDIKOVA is a Filly and RIP VAN WINKLE has not ran this season . Look no further than last years winner @ 3/1 [PP and Betfred]

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Lars

Lars

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Re: Royal Ascot discussion Tuesday: 16:25 Ascot; Coventry Stakes (Group 2) 6f Five main principles in the market, with three of them being Aidan O'Brien horses. However, think I'll be siding with the incredibly impressive York winner Elzaam. Ran superbly at York, beating subsequent easy winner Sir Reginald by 1.25L and the third placed Rerouted who has also gone on to win again. Touted as Michael Jarvis' best 2yo and Richard Hills was interviewed at the weekend, and he seemed to imply that this ride was one of his most anticipated for the entire Ascot week. Looks a very forward horse and it being January foal makes that even more believable. O'Brien yard not firing like the Jarvis one is and at 5/1, is a very decent price I feel. Hannon's 2yo's are also on top form, with him being represented by Strong Suit, whose run also franked by 2nd place winning. However, that run was nowhere near as impressive and although will improve, maybe not as much as Elzaam. Other interesting contenders may be the Spanish trained 2yo, who posted a decent time and could be absolutely anything at 25/1. But my call is Elzaam 1pt EW @ 5/1 William Hill

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Jimmy2shoes

Jimmy2shoes

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Re: Royal Ascot discussion

Can't wait to see Canford Cliffs win again. :loon He's a machine. Or at least will be.
Ahh me to my friend, i have been with him from day one, winning this race is all down to 2 things, turning up and he has to settle, if he does both of them he wins.
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ELCAKER

ELCAKER

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Re: Royal Ascot discussion Really looking forward to this years Royal Festival, it really does look like there's some outstanding racing to savour. If it delivers then racing fans will have a treat. I have done a couple of cheeky ante post bets, very speculative but remain hopeful will get some kind of return! In the Hunt Cup I think Dandy Boy deserves to be favourite, and I think this Irish raider will take the beating. Impressive in the Victoria Cup, and well backed I think connections know they have a group horse in ability. He could well take this on his way to bigger pots later in the season. Drawn 5, he'll be racing up the stands side just as he did in the Victoria Cup when beating Maibat with the pair well clear. Taken 8's as the first leg in an ew patent. The 2nd selection goes in the Golden Jubilee. Now I cant profess to knowing anything about Happy Zero other than what everyone can see in the Racing Post etc. However I was told to back it last week by a trusted friend and managed to get 12's with Paddy Power. He's got plenty of Group 1 form and hopefully wont mind the faster conditions that may well have materialised by the end of the week. He is versatile regarding trip having won over 7 furlongs, but has also won over 6. This is the trip he has run over the last twice, finishing 2nd in a group 2 and then a fast finishing 3rd in Singapore in a Group 1. Interestingly his last two victories have come after a little break which is what conections have done this time. As low as 7's with Ladbrokes (they like to sweep their net far and wide regarding infomation) you can still get 9's which is the price I have taken in the 2nd leg of the patent. The 3rd leg of my first foray into trying to hit the jackpot (!) is Medician Man in the Wokingham. He probably doesn't want the ground to be too quick, so it is a slight concern the ground could be plenty fast enough come the end of the week. However he is a better horse than his handicap mark and 20's looks very attractive for a horse who doesn't mind a big field and has a course and distance win to his name. Other horses I am looking forward to backing over the week are Paco Boy who could give Goldikova alot to deal with - at 3's he looks worthy of support on price alone. Zoffany is another horse who has really impressed me. I stuck him in the notebook after his maiden win at Leopardstown. It was a slow time but the manner of his win was quality. He then went to Naas and breezed up again. Jonny Murtagh rides him and at 7/2 I think he is a knocking ew bet. Really cant wait for the action to begin....:clap:clap:clap

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bowles10

bowles10

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Re: Royal Ascot discussion Weds 4.25 Royal Ascot - Royal Hunt Cup Key trends 12/12 - Ran to an RPR of at least 100 9/12 - Carried 9st or lower 11/12 - 4 & 5 yo 11/12 - 2nd or better at least once during the season 10/12 - between 1 -4 runs this season 11/12 - Has won cl 3 or higher 1/12 - Favs (last year fav won) The effect of the draw Drawn 1-10 (8 of last 12), 28+ (3 of last 12), middle draw (1 of last 12), Significantly the last 8 winners have been drawn 14 or lower. Significant age stat - The record of horses aged 6yo+ is very poor over 11 years with 1 winner & 7 places from 101 runs. 4yo's reads 5-21-169 & 5yo's 6-8-86. In % terms, this reads, only 8% of horses agred 6yo+ have won or placed in this (4yo 15.38%) (5yo 16%). So i will be taking out the 6yo+ horses in this field Also, i will look significantly at the draw as although pace is always an issue, the last 8 winners being drawn 14 or lower is a key stat removing the 6yo+ horses removes 12 of the 30 starters. Of the 18 left, lets take out those drawn above 14 leaving Stoic Dandy boy Tiger reigns Mull of killough Harald Bluetooth Noble citizen so only 7 left to choose from, Harald bluetoth hasnt run to an RPR of 100 so we remove that one. 2nd or better this season rules out mull of killough and noble citizen, leaving the following: STOIC - 12/1 Bet365 DANDY BOY - 10/1 Ladbrokes TIGER REIGNS - 25/1 Bet365 all 3 meet the trends, Stoic carries 9st 4lb however that stat is only 9 from 12 so will ignore that stat especially with ryan moore up top. all 10pts win

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jtw1

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Re: Royal Ascot discussion Great race , thought PACO was going to nail her but she found a bit extra :clap Wed 3.50 PRINCE of WALES STAKES Grp 1 10f [upgraded to Grp 1 in 2000] ------------------------------------------------- 9/9 returned at 8/1 or under , 2 Favs. 9/9 were distance winners 9/9 had won at Grp 1 level 9/9 were 4 or 5 y-olds 8/9 had ran that season with 6 finishing in the first 3. 8/9 ran outside the UK last time out 8/9 ran in Grp 1 class LTO 7/7 with a BHA rating were rated 117+ , 5 were 120+. Take out STIMULATION , DEBUSSY , TAZEEZ , WEINER WALTZER , GLASS HARMONIUM and ALLYBAR [ double figure sp's ] MAWATHEEQ makes his seasonal debut and has not won a G1 and neither has BYWORD . CAVALRYMAN has won a G1 but 3 of his 4 wins have been on G/S and has been doing most of his recent racing over 12f. Globe-trotting PRESVIS has won a G1 over in Sha Tin but is now a 6yo . Imo this is TWICE OVER's seasonal debut although she did run over in Meydan back in late March 81 days ago and i think he will appreciate the outing. Which leaves the French trained 4yo filly , SHALANAYA , whose last run was in a G1 over at LONGCHAMPS , has won a G1 , 2/3 wins were over the 10f and likes GOOD ground . On the upper edge of the betting mark but will probably end up in single figures on the day . 10pts @ 10/1 >Bet365

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jtw1

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Re: Royal Ascot discussion Anyone out there Mad/Brave enough to risk a shekel or 2 on BALLYDOYLE runners so far ??? At least O'BRIEN is giving fair warning that some of their runners are NOT going to win [ RVW for instance] without actually stating it the fact !!!!! When they do start to hit their usual hit form it will be quite competitive as GODOLPHIN should start finding the winners at around the same time [ end of June onwards] ..............interesting times ahead ;)

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Rainbow

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Re: Royal Ascot discussion golden stream 305 asc. 0.5 pts ew. the queens horse and i have to think that stoute has got this one totally primed for a massive run this afternoon. has ability, and although needs a bit more, can get into the shake up. big price.

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