muppet77 Posted June 12, 2010 Share Posted June 12, 2010 ok - a very simple system - i have used Ladbrokes odds for each individual match in the league stage to generate the expected chances of each team getting 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7+9 points (8 is not possible to get!) i then converted these to odds and looked for value on the market. simples. i came up with the following bets that have already started - a bit pointless but i would like to record their progress on here - odds taken from the Racing Post WC special on tuesday: Safr to qualify 3.00 Bfred Skorea to qualify 3.50 B365 Greece bottom 3.00 B365 england 6 points 6.50 Whills algeria to qualify 5.30 BF slovenia to win group 16.00 BF slovenia to qualify 3.00 Bfred australia to qualify 3.50 Tote holland 6 points 7.00 B365 holland 9 points 33.00 Whills japan to qualify 4.80 BF slovakia to win group 8.50 VicCh slovakia to qualify 2.30 Whills portugal to win group 4.70 BF portugal to qualify 1.67 BSq These were BEFORE the first match. However, the next lot are still valid: BF odds are pre 5% tax and all bets involved here are for the league stage only. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted June 13, 2010 Share Posted June 13, 2010 Re: World Cup value Nice work Muppet. However, the one that took my eye was Holland to get 9 points but no way are they 32/1. Is that a typo? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted June 13, 2010 Author Share Posted June 13, 2010 Re: World Cup value yep, good spot joe. :clap remove that bet from the sheet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted June 13, 2010 Author Share Posted June 13, 2010 Re: World Cup value I feel better after seeing on page 50 of tuesdays racing post world cup special that the odds I copied down were in fact varying from 25/1 to 33/1. Has to be their mistake and not mine! Anyhow, the bet is void! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted June 16, 2010 Author Share Posted June 16, 2010 Re: World Cup value current situation after first match in red: Safrto qualify top 3.00 Bfred Skorea to qualify top 3.50 B365 Greecebottom bottom 3.00B365england6 points LOSER 6.50 :spank Whillsalgeriato qualify bottom 5.30BFsloveniato win group top 16.00BFsloveniato qualify top 3.00Bfredaustralia to qualify bottom 3.50Toteholland6 points need to win one, lose one 7.00B365holland9 points bet cancelled 33.00Whillsjapanto qualify 2nd place 4.80BFslovakia to win group joint top 8.50VicChslovakiato qualify joint top 2.30Whillsportugalto win group second 4.70BFportugalto qualify second 1.67BSq looking rosey so far. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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