Best Bet Of The Day - 10th June 2010

[mowgli77]

9th June 2010 - Newbury 3.05 Listed Race 1m2f Good DIAM QUEEN (EW) 20-1 Paddypower BOG Deirdre - 3 races this season, no wins. Beaten 6l by Duff in a 7f Grp 3 race, beaten 6l by Aviate in a class 3 race and then beaten over 3l by Snow Fairy in a 10f listed race. Aviate and Snow Fairy both ran in the Oaks with contrasting fortunes. Diam Queen - Form read 1-2-1 in lesser races and flopped last time out but hood was removed late in stalls and the horse failed to settle. Seems to have been written off due to that run. Should have no problem with trip looking at pedigree, lacks any form at this level but better than it showed last time out, Fallon in form and Cumani has won this race twice in recent years. 20-1 seems too big. Eleanora Duse - Won a maiden at the 3rd attempt and then 1/4 length 2nd to Monterosso and that has won a class 2 handicap since. Only beaten 1 length in Musidora but not sure of that form at the moment. Short enough in the betting and obvious chance for top jockey/trainer combo. Kithonia - Has only won a big field maiden and races off a lowly 77 but out of Sadlers Wells and respected for top class trainer. Entered in the Ribblesdale and Irish Oaks and potential to be very good but bare form nothing special. It's one win was over 7f and on soft ground, steps up in trip and class today. Lady Darshaan - Has not raced over further than a mile yet and has some good form in group races (3rd to Misheer in a Gp 2, 2nd to Hibaayeb in a Gp 1) but well beaten last 2 races at Gp 1 level. Drops in class but goes up in trip. Plenty of Gp 1 entries but has to prove it gets 10f. Nurture - Best form was a nose 2nd in listed company but then beaten 27 lengths in the guineas and dropped back to maiden company last time out. Won over 10f last time out but form of that maiden well short of this class. Pink Symphony - Just behind Eleanora Duse last time out in the Musidora and needs to start winning to repay some of the 400,000 guineas paid for it at the sales. Has won over 10f in a class 4 maiden race but hung left. Should be more than capable of winning at this level and will need Spencer to be at his best, went to front 3f out when he won on it before rather than leaving it too late for a run. Shimmering Surf - Won a maiden at the 3rd attempt when stepping up to 10f but reportedly "tricky and excitable" and that was only a class 5 affair. Gets the trip but a lot to prove upped in class now. Deirdre likes to lead and may try make all from the front but most of the rivals like to race prominently or track the leaders. Diam Queen likes to lead or chase the leaders but if they go off too fast Fallon may drop the horse in behind and try deliver it late and same applies to Moore on Eleanora Duse. That also likes to track leaders, as do Kithonia, Lady Darshaan, Nurture, Pink Symphony and Shimmering Surf. Some have been held up on occasions but winning form or most impressive form has been when racing close to the pace. A few of these may get involved in a battle up front and go off too quickly or Deirdre may go off a slow pace, which won't suit Diam Queen and a few others whereas a quick pace may suit one coming late, often how Spencer rides his mounts. Diam Queen stands out to me as overpriced and underrated based on one performance. Kithonia has bags of potential and Pink Symphony is the only course and distance winner and the race could really suit the horse if they go off at a good clip. I'm going to oppose Lady Darshaan and Eleanora Duse but respect both runners and take the 3 suggested runners instead as follows: 0.5pt EW Diam Queen 20-1 >PaddyPower BOG

[StuSimmy]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 10th June 2010 16:50 Newbury This will be the 3rd year of the renewal of this Bathwick Tyres Newbury Handicap and I fancy Elusive Trader to land the spoils. Apart from Alkhataaf he is the least exposed runner in the race having had 4 runs to date. Improved on every run as a 2 year old for Richard Hannon and finally got off the mark on his 3rd attempt when winning a maiden race at Bath. He was then purchased by Ralph Beckett and he made his debut for the yard in his handicap bow LTO at Salisbury. Was 5/13 that day and strangely enough a horse who finished 10 lengths behind him in 13th has gone on to boost that form a bit by winning twice since off marks of 74 and 81, both those races were also up in grade. Elusive Trader should come on for that run and is clearly still progressing, he should be in with a great shout in this providing the extra furlong suits. Jim Crowley and Beckett have formed a formiddable duo this season and they have a 23% strike rate when teaming up. Beckett also has a 20% strike rate in the past 28 days which averages at 1 winner for every 5 he sends out which is fairly impressive. It is quite a tight contest so I will be placing an each way bet to cover my stake as I believe he should place at the very least. I rate Alkhataaf and Lago Indiano as the main dangers. Win Elusive Trader @ 4/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)