Zibbit Posted June 7, 2010 Share Posted June 7, 2010 Hi sportsfans! Know all about the shortcomings of the Martingale. Just for myself and maybe for others I am gonna papertest a Martingale system. I'll try to win 4 EUR each time and we'll assume a bank of 300 EUR. I of course know this is bound to fail but I'd like just to see it as an experiment how early/late it will on my "educated" picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 7, 2010 Author Share Posted June 7, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 1st pick KR - Valur, Icelandic league. Backing KR @1.78 for 4 EUR. Generally will go for odds over 2 but I fancy this one and doesn't matter as much with the first pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaffleMania Posted June 7, 2010 Share Posted June 7, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! Have fun with this, i didn't know the system was called the martingale, but i had heard of it before. My first experience of it went well, second not so much. Its amazing how you can win quite a lot, then lose it all. Even with a starting stake of something like 20p on roulette, 15 losses on red in a row soon adds up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 8, 2010 Author Share Posted June 8, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 1. KR -Valur 1-2 :@ Starting bank: 300 EUR Current bank: 296 EUR Picks 1 Winners 0 P/L: -4 EUR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted June 8, 2010 Share Posted June 8, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! I´ve tried this in past time but without any profit. Martingale is waste of time and money ofcourse.:eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 8, 2010 Author Share Posted June 8, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! That's why I am papertesting and not using money :cheers Just curious to see how far I could go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted June 8, 2010 Share Posted June 8, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! That's why I am papertesting and not using money :cheers Just curious to see how far I could go. papertesting is ok. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newestpunter Posted June 8, 2010 Share Posted June 8, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 1. KR -Valur 1-2 :@ Starting bank: 300 EUR Current bank: 296 EUR Picks 1 Winners 0 P/L: -4 EUR can i ask what you are using to make your selections the reason i ask is because kr hadnt won a single game this season while valur were unbeaten away with only 1 defeat from 5 this season before the game started - so what made you go for that selection? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 8, 2010 Author Share Posted June 8, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! KR has by far the best squad. They went almost undefeted in pre-season winning in style (among them Valur). They are the biggest club in Iceland and always have the biggest expectation. Their current struggles are leaving most people with a big ? The table doesn't reflect the strength of the team. They also were slow out of the gate last year and it cost them the title..it wasn't enough that they won like 7-8 out of 9 in the end. They will get their head out of their :moon soon and winning. I'll add that if this had been first game of season KR would have been at something like 1.5/1.6 max. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newestpunter Posted June 8, 2010 Share Posted June 8, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! fair enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 8, 2010 Author Share Posted June 8, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 2. Boston vs Lakers 1st quarter points, under on 48,5. 8 EUR @1.94 Been over in one of them (51 and 47 other). I think intensity will be high at start of this one because of importance and also officals have been under fire for too much whistles which probably means slightly less whistles and hopefully less foul shots and easy points. I refs want to decrease number of fouls they do so at the start of the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 9, 2010 Author Share Posted June 9, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 2. Boston vs Lakers 1st quarter points, under on 48,5. 8 EUR @1.94 :nana Starting bank: 300 EUR Current bank: 303,25 EUR Picks 2 Winners 1 P/L: +3,25 EUR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 9, 2010 Author Share Posted June 9, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 3. Chicago - Colorado: Lay under 2,5 goals. 4.25 EUR @ 1.74 In this experiment I don't mind well less than 2 on the first bet since I am recovering the stake anyway if it fails. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 10, 2010 Author Share Posted June 10, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 3. Chicago - Colorado: Lay under 2,5 goals. 4.25 EUR @ 1.74 :@ Starting bank: 300 EUR Current bank: 299 EUR Picks 3 Winners 1 P/L: -1 EUR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 14, 2010 Author Share Posted June 14, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 4. Italy - Paraguay: Back Italy 7 EUR @2.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 15, 2010 Author Share Posted June 15, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 4. Italy - Paraguay: Back Italy 7 EUR @2.26 :@ Starting bank: 300 EUR Current bank: 292 EUR Picks 4 Winners 1 P/L: -8 EUR 5. Lakers -2.5 to win 1st quarter against Boston 16 EUR @ 2.02 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DYK35Y Posted June 15, 2010 Share Posted June 15, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! I've been using the Martingale on 1-1 draws in the English Premier League for several seasons now, backing every team until they draw 1-1. The longest streak was Birmingham City a couple of seasons ago - they finally hit in Game 22. Started with half a unit on each of the 20 teams (ie one unit per match) to make a 60 unit profit, as shown below. The table (which only stretches to 22 weeks as that's the furthest I've had to go) is based on a price of 6/1 (or 7.00) for the 1-1 draw, which is fairly standard. I would not recommend this fatally flawed system as a moneymaker, but it is good fun. Column 1: stake Column 2: potential returns Column 3: balance if bet loses Column 4: overall profit if bet wins 0.50 3.50 -0.50 +3.00 0.58 4.06 -1.08 +3.02 0.68 4.76 -1.76 +3.00 0.79 5.53 -2.55 +2.98 0.92 6.44 -3.47 +2.97 1.08 7.56 -4.55 +3.01 1.26 8.82 -5.81 +3.01 1.47 10.29 -7.28 +3.01 1.72 12.04 -9.00 +3.04 2.00 14.00 -11.00 +3.00 2.34 16.38 -13.34 +3.04 2.72 19.04 -16.06 +2.98 3.18 22.26 -19.24 +3.02 3.71 25.97 -22.95 +3.02 4.33 30.31 -27.28 +3.03 5.05 35.35 -32.33 +3.02 5.89 41.23 -38.22 +3.01 6.87 48.09 -45.09 +3.00 8.01 56.07 -53.08 +3.02 9.35 65.45 -62.43 +3.02 10.91 76.37 -73.34 +3.03 12.72 89.04 -86.06 +2.98 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 16, 2010 Author Share Posted June 16, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 5. Lakers -2.5 to win 1st quarter against Boston 16 EUR @ 2.02 :nana Starting bank: 300 EUR Current bank: 306.86 EUR Picks 5 Winners 2 P/L: +6.86 EUR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 16, 2010 Author Share Posted June 16, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! Lets keep going. Thanks very much for the 1-1 back idea. Very interesting ;-) 6. Detroit Tigers(-1.5) - Washington Nationals 4 EUR @ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 17, 2010 Author Share Posted June 17, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 6. Detroit Tigers(-1.5) - Washington Nationals 4 EUR @ 2 :nana Starting bank: 300 EUR Current bank: 310.86 EUR Picks 6 Winners 3 P/L: +10.86 EUR 7. Argentina - South Korea, over 2,5 goals: 4 EUR @2.33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 17, 2010 Author Share Posted June 17, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 7. Argentina - South Korea, over 2,5 goals: 4 EUR @2.33 :nana Starting bank: 300 EUR Current bank: 315.76 EUR Picks 7 Winners 4 P/L: +15.76 EUR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 17, 2010 Author Share Posted June 17, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 8. Nigeria - Greece, Nigeria to win 4 EUR @2.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 17, 2010 Author Share Posted June 17, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 8. Nigeria - Greece, Nigeria to win 4 EUR @2.26 :@ Starting bank: 300 EUR Current bank: 311.76 EUR Picks 8 Winners 4 P/L: +11.76 EUR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 17, 2010 Author Share Posted June 17, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 9. France - Mexico, France to win 8 EUR @2.28 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 18, 2010 Author Share Posted June 18, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 9. France - Mexico, France to win 8 EUR @2.28 :@ Starting bank: 300 EUR Current bank: 303.76 EUR Picks 9 Winners 4 P/L: +3.76 EUR 10. Paul Pierce to score over 20 pts, 17 EUR @ 1.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 18, 2010 Author Share Posted June 18, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 10. Paul Pierce to score over 20 pts, 17 EUR @ 1.9 :@ Freaking 18 points :wall Starting bank: 300 EUR Current bank: 286.76 EUR Picks 10 Winners 4 P/L: -13.24 EUR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 19, 2010 Author Share Posted June 19, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 11. Ghana - Australia: backing Ghana, 32 EUR @ 2.12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 20, 2010 Author Share Posted June 20, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 11. Ghana - Australia: backing Ghana, 32 EUR @ 2.12 :@ Starting bank: 300 EUR Current bank: 254.76 EUR Picks 11 Winners 4 P/L: -45.24 EUR 12. Slovakia - Paraguay: Paraguay to win, 64 EUR @ 2.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 20, 2010 Author Share Posted June 20, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 12. Slovakia - Paraguay: Paraguay to win, 64 EUR @ 2.25 :nana A scary run ended. Starting bank: 300 EUR Current bank: 331.16 EUR Picks 12 Winners 5 P/L: 31.16 EUR Edit: I am actually gonna make this pick #13 13. KR Reykjavik - IBV Vestmannaeyjar KR to win 4 EUR @ 1.83 And my earlier pick is pick number 14 then. So if KR loses I will make it 9 EUR on FH to beat Selfoss. Otherwise 4 EUR as before. 14. Selfoss - FH, FH to win 4 EUR @ 1.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted June 21, 2010 Author Share Posted June 21, 2010 Re: A Martingale Fail ! 13. KR Reykjavik - IBV Vestmannaeyjar KR to win 4 EUR @ 1.83 :clap Starting bank: 300 EUR Current bank: 334.67 EUR Picks 13 Winners 6 P/L: 34.67 EUR Still #14 14. Selfoss - FH, FH to win 4 EUR @ 1.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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