State of Origin - Game I

[Lahrio]

I know it's a bit late but it starts in a few hours. Anyone got some bets on this? :) NSW @ 1.91 (Totesport) NSW 1-12 @ 3.5 (SkyBet) I know the odds have come in quite a bit, but I just think with QLD missing the majority of it's pack that has been the cornerstone of their success over the past 4 years, they are going to struggle. There will be far too much pressure on Civoniceva to carry the QLD pack. Much has been made of the QLD backline, and it is relatively unchanged with the exception of Hodges. However, I think QLD will lack the big men to make metres up the middle to create space for Lockyer and Thurston to work their magic. Speaking of Thurston, there is a question mark over his fitness, and while the QLD camp claim he is ready to go, he has struggled recently with the Cowboys to really make an impact due to this injury. For NSW, I think their weak links are Gidley at fullback and Idris. Gidley should not be playing at Fullback, and really should be occupying a bench spot as he does for Australia. I am not sure why selectors are so worried about putting Hayne at the back, but I would think even young Josh Dugan would still be better than Gidley in that position. Dugan is small but he is probably the best defensive fullback in the game at the moment and is only 20 years old. What can I say about Jamal Idris? You might be better off putting a turnstile where he will be defending because with the exception of a few games, his defence throughout his career has been poor to say the least. The thought of him trying to defend Greg Inglis is almost comical. Despite this, I think the forward pack of NSW will get the job done. The left side with Morris, Cooper and Creagh will probably be the main focus of attack for the Blues as they will be used to each other playing for the Dragons. I expect a few tries to come down that side. QLD to win Series 2-1 (After first game) I am not sure of the odds, and obviously they will decide whether I make this bet or not, but when QLD get some of their key players back, I expect them to fire and probably take out the series.

[pete]

Re: State of Origin - Game I Conditions for tonight's game will be very wet with Sydney being drenched with rain today, it was reported on the news tonight the groundsman has emptied the rain gauge twice in the last 24 hours which is over 50mls in 24 hours! The bookies have set the over/under total at just 28.5 points, so they are expecting a very low scoring game due to the conditions. I was going to back a Reds win as i think they have more gamebreakers in their team but with the rain it will nulify their speed so i think it will be very close game and will have a small bet with Draw/NSW @ $13.00 and Draw/Reds @ $15.00 with TAB.