AFL Round 8 (May 14-16)

[Ashtee]

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16) WBD may be worth opposing based on the same criteria I outlined last week. Out of interest, did the Doggies run down the Dees or did Melbourne surge late and fail?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16) Melb surged from behind all night and (got 9pts up well into LQ) then fell over, as often happens in the 'new kids on block' v 'experienced campaigner' matches (same v Coll). The ones I'm contemplating are Fremantle (poss showers), Melbourne, Carlton if not wet and St Kilda.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16) Was very even all night... ...Melbourne 0.6 early, missed some easy(ish) ones, Dogs kicked a couple outta their butts early. Up late tho I think it was Nathan Jones who chipped a ball sideways into a 3 on 1 (Dogs way) in the middle, when a long kick to the pocket would have just about sealed it... ...(not to mention a couple of near umpire possessions :unsure :$ ) Initial thoughts are definately Melbourne...hard to believe Swans are 2.15+...and Bombers to keep it close... ...St. Kilda... :eyes :lol :ok

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16)

...and Bombers to keep it close... ...St. Kilda... :eyes :lol :ok

Funnily enough, forced to take a h'cap option I'd rather choose Essendon but I really think St Kilda have an easy opponent and should have it in them for some bounce back factor. I'll be comfortable with the 1.45 or so, I think. Sydney lose Moore & Mumford but might regain McGlynn & LRT (who they missed badly). For some strange reason I keep sticking by the Bulldogs and feel the odds on this game is about correct.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16) Reckon I'll be on the Bombers @ +17.5 They've been statistically good all year really...only game they've been worse than -4 in shots was v. Collingwood. They've won contested ball in every game except that one, and surprisingly to me their back 6 numbers are very good...2.14, 5th best...2.22 in their last 5 games which is 4th best (better than the Saints) They played two pretty tight games last year, Saints winning the first meeting by 19 (4 more shots), Bombers winning a late game by 2, as the Saints were easing off admittedly, but Riewoldt played and Lloyd didn't... I can't pick Friday night's game. Should be a LOT of points, but I've got little doubt the lines will agree. Very little splitting them...Freo I50's aren't flash, even at home (+4), and this will be the best backline Freo have faced (definatly at home anyway, Cats without Scarlett), so I'm giving a slight edge to the Pies (although I'm a bit surprised they're favs), but really toss of the coin stuff for me. 'Over' or nothing. Was hoping I'd get a good line for the 'under' @ Canberra, but early team total indications are that I won't... :D I think the Swans are going to struggle to score here...They've played teams 14th, 15th and 16th when it comes to points allowed, Crows 11th, Brisbane 9th (and at home)...scored 88 v. Saints (1st) and just 59 last week @ Geelong (5th). Dogs rank 2nd. Dogs have had their problems scoring too...topped 100 just 3 times, v. 3 BAD defensive teams (Rich, Hawks and Crows) I should have been a bit braver last week v. Melbourne (179.5) esp. in the wet, so might be willing to go quite low here. Dogs have good record v. Swannies @ Canberra...my first thought was Swans are HUGE @ 2.25ish, but that might be about right. :\ Pretty sure Melbourne win, but not entirely confident about taking on the spread. Will happily take 1.40 against a team who have won 1 of their last god knows on the road. Brisbane look like they'll struggle to contain a suddenly red hot Cats...although 3 of last 4 at [actual] home have skewed things in a mjor way! Remember they lost to Carlton 3 weeks ago, and weren't overly impressive in the other 3... ...but neither have the Lions lately, and now with injury concerns. Geelong deserved favs, but certainly with no confidence. Crows a real chance here I reckon...will wait for a total, not sure if I'll take them or the over, but I fancy that they'll be able to score here. Opposite to the Swans, they've had a pretty tough run early; Freo allowed 22 shots (@ home), and 7th best points allowed, Swans 21, 5th, Melb 23 and 2nd, Carlton 26 and 8th (Had 25 shots) Dogs 23 and [equal] 2nd, Port 22 (home) and 10th (had 24 shots)... ...and the dirty ol' Tiges who allow 32 shots and are 16th for points allowed. Well, the Kangas allow 27 and are 15th for points allowed... Going back to (wow, amazingly now!!!) the Crows have played 25 games @ the Dome going all the way back to the start of 2003...they've topped 100 in 16 of them!... ...take out St. Kilda and Collingwood games and they are 16-1 over 100!!! :eek Melbourne and Carlton only had 22 and 23 shots v. the Crows, so not sure North can manage many more. Definately leaning to taking the points here, and 2.40 looks big.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16)

Was hoping I'd get a good line for the 'under' @ Canberra, but early team total indications are that I won't... :D I think the Swans are going to struggle to score here...

Question mark over Bradshaw as well.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16) Freo v. Collingwood OVER 191.5 Crows +10.5 Essendon +17.5 so far... :ok

[chrisz]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16)

Freo v. Collingwood OVER 191.5

reading for a while, every week great posts..unfortunately i don't know that much about Australian Football...im from Austria :) gonna ride with u on that over, let's hope i can bring u some luck :)! gl :dude

[jovinco]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16)

reading for a while, every week great posts..unfortunately i don't know that much about Australian Football...im from Austria :) gonna ride with u on that over, let's hope i can bring u some luck :)! gl :dude

+1 TazaD could you put in your favourite sites? and where can I watch the games on the net? Thanks Alot mate:cheers

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16) Crows +9.5 I've hopped onto the Crows already missing Burton and Johncock (but regain Dangerfield and Walker) and this was before Thompson was out to injury replaced by Tony Armstrong with still a ??? on McLeod. I still think Nth @ $1.60 is a bit rich. Crows have a great record against them and as you mentioned Taz they have a history of scoring well @ Etihad. I think the strong finish last week is a positive thing rather than a side effect of Richmond not running out the game something Adelaide has struggled with as well. Hawks -30.5 The Hawks last week were beaten comfortably as it was Roughy who kicked the last 3 of the game that kept the scores close. The return of Franklin & Mitchell, the Hawk debut of Burgoyne and a ruck partner for Renouf (Skipper) strengthens the Hawk's midfield and fwd line. Richmond have yet to lose by less than 6 goals this season.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16)

TazaD could you put in your favourite sites? and where can I watch the games on the net?

Would love to jovinco, then I could see it live myself! :lol ** Was great until a year or so ago, until the AFL realised and clamped down on it big time (guess they got a hint from their NFL 'brothers' :eyes ). You can try the usual 'free tv' sites, but doubt you'll find anything now. :( [** Most [ALL!] games in Melbourne aren't shown live here...I used to love living in a State where we got all the games live. Again, kind of NFL rules here. Nasty. :wall ...oh, Tassie rocks! Wooo! :beer :rollin ] I'd almost set myself for a speculative bet...[kinda forgot about one game!** :unsure]...Kangas are paying 17.00 to have the lowest score of the round!! :eek Like I said, I think they lose to Adelaide...Richmond deserved favs, but Hawks D still awful, Tiges could easily sneak 70-80... ...Carlton, Port, Dogs, Syd all figure to be low scoring, but guessing they all top 75-80... ...West Coast a real chance... ...but a team who have had 22 shots or less in 8 of their last 10 games, and have been held to 60, 52, 54, 74, 24 in their last 5 meetings are @ 17.00!!! :eek I say!! ** Unfortunately I forgot about the St. Kilda/Ess game which to be fair could easily produce one team at least having a stinker. Still, if Ash has taught me anything (has Ash taught me anything, other than being a stand out @ Geelong is cool :lol)...value is King lads. 17.00 I say again. Madness. :ok

[jovinco]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16)

Would love to jovinco, then I could see it live myself! :lol ** Was great until a year or so ago, until the AFL realised and clamped down on it big time (guess they got a hint from their NFL 'brothers' :eyes ). You can try the usual 'free tv' sites, but doubt you'll find anything now. :( [** Most [ALL!] games in Melbourne aren't shown live here...I used to love living in a State where we got all the games live. Again, kind of NFL rules here. Nasty. :wall ...oh, Tassie rocks! Wooo! :beer :rollin ]

:cheers Taz. Ash, Oz:clap :clap:clap everyone here, a great thread.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16) It was funny, I left at the LQ 20-minute mark last Sunday thinking there will still be queue of cars, but I was the only one. Went with HT options as a way of backing St Kilda because I feel they will have nicely stewed for this.

• HT @ 1.63 Global
• HT/FT 1.75 Luxbet

& one I'm not on that I like is:

• Lead Go to Whoa 2.45 @ Luxbet

I guess not all of us are hoping to hard for this, though :ok. Took 41.00 Pavlich for Brownlow. Heave ho live :loon tonight! :hope

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16)

:cheers Taz. Ash, Oz:clap :clap:clap everyone here, a great thread.

You can at least follow live scores at sites like www.afl.com.au or www.foxsports.com.au/afl/ :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16)

It was funny, I left at the LQ 20-minute mark last Sunday thinking there will still be queue of cars, but I was the only one. Went with HT options as a way of backing St Kilda because I feel they will have nicely stewed for this.

• HT @ 1.63 Global
• HT/FT 1.75 Luxbet

& one I'm not on that I like is:

• Lead Go to Whoa 2.45 @ Luxbet

I guess not all of us are hoping to hard for this, though :ok. Took 41.00 Pavlich for Brownlow. !

If only we'd jumped on Barlow early...like 134.00 after round 3 early even!!! :unsure I have no problems with the Saints leading from start to finish...in a consistantly close shoot out. :lol [Thanks for that extra luck ChrisZ. :cheers ]

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16) Dogs @ Sydney under 177.5 Might have snagged a good one here. Centrebet go 171.5 which is a bit more like it IMHO. Swans can be had for 2.60 @ PP!!! :eek :eek I'm torn...We need one numbers man here surely...2 Ashtee's could send parallel universes into a spin... :unsure 2.60???!!! :\ Some-one with more testicular fortitude give me a nudge please...

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16) No-one? Good... :D I'm still trying to decide how I go about hoping for an under, yet hoping 2 teams still score... :unsure Took the Kangas @ 17.00 for 1/2 a unit... :hope

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16) WHAT DID I TELL YOU? Swans Changes to the selected side In: Bevan Out: Daniel Bradshaw (knee soreness) Western Bulldogs Changes to the selected side In: Eagleton Out: Ryan Griffen (back tightness)

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16) Well done to the Crows, the new last quarter kings, for getting my bet over the line with 37 secs to go :puke

[Twinky99]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16) i cant believe it adelaide got me my +9.5.... i saw the live scores while having my dinner and gave up on them. :nana:nana

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 8 (May 14-16) Yep...x3 Kicked the last 7 goals from absolutely nowhere and were a realistic chance to pinch it with a minute or 2 to play. All totals look about right today...still may get lucky with a different line, given there has been a surprisingly bit difference in line lately...but early Centrebet's efforts don't interest me. Starting to like the Hawks...they've had a tough run...Geelong, Dogs, Collingwood, 2 road trips...obviously the Ess game in there is the huge worry, but 58-58 I50's in that game, Bombers solid defense and Roughead sore and barely worth being out there. Fair chance they pull out a monster score here. 117 v. Melbourne in round one, could easily (should!) top that. Can Richmond score 90? Well, they did score 78 v. Melbourne here, so yeah, maybe they can. Hawks 2.25 for the highest Sunday score! Thought they would have been odds on. :ok EDIT: Good lord!!! Centrebet have just moved the Tiges total from 179.5 to 185.5 in a flash!!! I was hoping it might sneak down to 175ish. :$