Tennis > 10-16 May

[Atko]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Just switched it back on(impossible not to when you have cash on it) and Tsonga is on the ground getting back treatment...... a retirement would be welcome to be honest......:$....he was clearly not right early on and still getting numerous chances to break GGL......:lol....can't serve today though. Edit: he's back on......:puke

I will get a full refund even if he loses the first set if he retires. C'mon big Willy, give it up mate :lol

[Atko]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Tsonga = legend :ok

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Yep retired.....dodged a bullet there. Tsonga must have backed GGL to win the first set......:eek

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Nadal vs Dolgopolov UNDER 17.5 games @ 8/11(Paddy Power: 4/10)

LOSS....so minor loss today...missed this match but heard Dolgopolov played really well and it seems Nadal is not firing as well as he was in Monte Carlo. Nice retirement Tsonga my friend........:ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Really good day by all involved yesterday. Good to see more and more punters having a go. Plenty of nice write-ups again today, hopefully the success bandwagon can continue to roll. Here's my four selections... Madrid - Andy Murray vs Juan Ignacio Chela Under 21 games AH at 1.971 (Pinnacle) I think this is the perfect match for Murray to get back to winning ways. He's got a 3-1 H2H record with Chela - lost to him in Oz many years ago but has since them beaten him comfortably, especially in their last meeting at Roland Garros last year. Chela's a player in decline. He's got nous round the court but he hasn't got enough power to hurt good defensive players, of which Murray is one. His serve can be brittle and I expect Murray to pick up on that. The Scot himself hasn't been playing well but got to R3 in Rome before meeting David Ferrer. He beat Andreas Seppi on the way and I see Chela as a similar opponent, a guy who hits the spots but with no real power. I'm pretty sure Murray will see Chela as an ideal opponent here and with the odds on the -4 line way too short at 1.77, I'm more than happy to chance the under 21-game line at a fairly decent price. Bet strength: 7/10 Madrid - Philipp Petzschner vs Gael Monfils Gael Monfils -3.5 games AH at 1.847 (Pinnacle) Would've ideally wanted a better price for this one but it's still in my remit so I'm taking it. Petzschner had an almightly wobble against Fabio Fognini yesterday. He really should have lost that match as the Italian choked when serving for it. The German has improved on clay this year but he's up against one of the surface's Top 15 in my opinion. I watched his match with Stephane Robert and he looked fit and was hitting the ball well. He's got the stamina and speed to get to Petzschner's backhand slice drop-shot, which the German loves to play. They've met twice before on hard courts, each winning one encounter, but Monfils is the more comfortable of the two on clay. Reckon the Frenchman has too much for Petzschner here. Bet strength: 4/10 Madrid - Double Jurgen Melzer (vs Mardy Fish) x Robin Soderling (vs Nicolas Almagro) at 2.14 (Pinnacle) Small stakes are the order of the day here but I reckon this double is worth a play. I originally considered Melzer-Fish U22 games but they've gone the distance in all of their encounters. Melzer leads 3-1 though and has beaten him on clay twice before. Fish played into the small hours last night against Michael Russell and I wonder if he'll be ready for this. He was complaining of a sore back and hasn't really got the game for clay. Melzer should be able to break him down here as he moves better and has a greater array of shots. I've taken this with Pinnacle as if Fish retires (and that might happen with a dodgy back) then it'll be classed as a Melzer win on the coupon if they've played more than a set. As for Soderling, he is the riskier of the two but I reckon he'll come through this. The Swede leads the H2H 3-1 and is a genuine Top 10 player. Almagro struggles against these sorts of opponents - mentally, he doesn't play crucial points well and will find Soderling's flat shots very tough to deal with. The Swede has had a good rest since Rome and will want a good week ahead of the French. Almagro's been serving poorly recently and should've been taken closer by Viktor Troicki in R1, who had lots of chances to break. Happy that both Melzer and Soderling should be in R3. Bet strength: 3/10 Madrid - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez Jo Wilfried Tsonga to win 2-0 at 2.180 (Pinnacle) I can't really add more than IAmGooner and Cramer have said above. This looks a bad match-up for Garcia-Lopez. The Spaniard has been playing well but he's picking off guys ranked beneath him - he seems to struggle when he takes on the top players. I don't expect Tsonga to romp either set but I do feel he's got enough to take this in straights. His big serve will work well on the quicker clay and he's got the forehand to break Garcia-Lopez down. IAmGooner mentioned the Spaniard's not the best at defending and I agree. He doesn't like being penned back and that's what Tsonga will do to him. The Frenchman has beaten him in straight sets the two times they've met, which suggests to me Tsonga has worked out pretty quickly how to take care of him. There's a risk involved here so I'm lowering the stakes but the price is good and the logic makes sense to me. Bet strength: 3/10 Good luck :hope

Murray d. Chela 6-3 6-3 - WIN Monfils d. Petzschner 1-1 ret - VOID Melzer d. Fish 3-6 6-1 6-4/Almagro d. Soderling 6-4 7-5 - LOSS Garcia-Lopez d. Tsonga 6-2 ret - VOID Profit made thanks to Murray win. Did not see Almagro taking out Soderling. Was a day of mini-shocks so glad to come out in the green.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Good call on Murray......watched patches of the match and he was very good. Might be some nice lines tomorrow....Nadal, Federer and Verdasco look underpriced I think so could be a few interesting bets.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May This was not a very good tennisday. Lucky I could win more on football..

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Petrova and Gulbis got good wins for me today, Tsonga a void.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Rafael Nadal v John Isner
Selection	Rafael Nadal -4.5 games
Strength	10/10
Date	13/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 2.10 (Back)
Reasoning	Paddy Power first ones to have a handicap market up, but doesn't this handicap just 'feel' wrong? Especially when getting Nadal at odds against. nadal didn't look too sharp today, but it was first match after a little break and he can come out sharper tomorrow. The clay is playing very quick but at home I'll take Nadal over really a non-clay player like Isner at this price. Isner showed he can play on clay last week in Belgrade, and definately has a lot of heart. But he's come from that and had 2 tough 3 set matches here, now up against Nadal could be too much. Really think this should be -5.5 when Nadal is odds against.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Sport	Tennis
Event	Andrea Petkovic v Aravane Rezai
Selection	Andrea Petkovic
Strength	10/10
Date	13/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.72 (Back)
Reasoning	I like Petkovic in this game at a pretty solid price. Sh's showing some good form lately and has a big time game. She's beaten Rezai twice already this year indoors and on clay. Rezai is doing OK, got the big win over Henin but that was definately more to do with a Henin meltdown. Maybe that win is affecting her price in this match too much, but I think the price on Petkovic is solid.

[marron]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May 6pts Rafael Nadal vs John Isner under 20.5 games at Evens with Paddy Power I think this line should be a bit higher to be honest or the odds a bit lower. Nadal never won as emphatically as most expected today with regards to the scoreline but alot of that was down to how well his opponent played. Isner is a dangerous, powerful player but clay isnt his preferred surface and im not too sure about his ability to mix it up against someone of Nadal's standard. He also went all the way to the final last week and has had a couple of 3 set matches here already so may be starting to feel it fitness wise. When Nadal to win 2-0 is at such short odds, im happy to take this with the view that i expect him to come through this no worse than 6-4 6-4.

[marron]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

This was not a very good tennisday. Lucky I could win more on football..

Your not kidding, 2 losses out of 2 for me on the tennis today and my football bet lost too.

[burf]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Petrova and Gulbis got good wins for me today, Tsonga a void.

Yes, thank you :clap for the heads up on Petrova. I took that as well. I watched the match from just before she got broke in the first and did think it was lost but Serena had a bit of a meltdown and Petrova stepped up. Don't usually watch much women's tennis, but this was a good match.

[marron]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Anyone with any views on the Monaco - Almagro match? I lost backing against Almagro today but surely Monaco offers some value at 6/4. He has looked very good in his previous 2 matches against Belluci and Greul.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Almagro was superb today but very inconsistent player...dunno about Monaco, he's been poor for a while with injury problems and then wallops Bellucci. I'd side with Almagro but no value IMO.....Monaco represents value alright but being confident in him winning I'm not sure. Not a whole lot that I can see tomorrow....maybe OVERS in the Verdasco/Melzer match as they have had some tight matches in the past, although Verdasco leads 5-1 h2h....also think Schnyder could cause Stosur some trouble and is a big price at 4/1....want to see the market for handicaps and overs in this one.Stosur probably the best clay-courter this year but possible fatigue setting in maybe after some great weeks....Schnyder is really not in a much lower class in terms of ability...but form and confidence is much in favour of Stosur. Only seen Paddy Power odds so far and nothing stands out. Will check in the morning before work but will probably just sit tomorrow out.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Anyone with any views on the Monaco - Almagro match? I lost backing against Almagro today but surely Monaco offers some value at 6/4. He has looked very good in his previous 2 matches against Belluci and Greul.

Nightmare match IMO. Almagro playing well so I couldn't go against him, but at the same time he's so mentally unstable at times, I wouldn't want to be lumping on him either. Will have a look tomorrow when Pinny put the handicaps up. Your Isner/Nadal bet seems good on paper but I'll have to do some research myself.

[marron]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Nightmare match IMO. Almagro playing well so I couldn't go against him, but at the same time he's so mentally unstable at times, I wouldn't want to be lumping on him either. Will have a look tomorrow when Pinny put the handicaps up. Your Isner/Nadal bet seems good on paper but I'll have to do some research myself.

Cheers for the input guys, just looked into their stats and will be leaving it well alone. Could easily be a relatively comfortable 2-0 or a hard fought 2-1 for either player.

[AntoNescU]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Sport Tennis Event Roger Federer-Stanislas Wawrinka Selection Stanislas Wawrinka Strength 10/10 Date 13/05/2010 Bookmaker/Price Boylesports @ 3.70 (Back) Reasoning Why I think that Roger Federer will lose here?On clay so far Roger played unpersuasive.He lost with Ernest Gulbis or with Albert Montanes on this area.Also,almost in all games on clay in 2010 Roger played tie-break with Becker,Montanes or Clement,so I guess Roger have problems on this area.Wawrinka on clay played good,losing in 2010 only with Isner and Djokovic.Wawrinka is a strong player,he can make the surprise here.

[mniXo]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Lopez - Roddick: Roddick win - 8 pts - 1.61 Pinnacle H2H is 6-0 for Roddick. Lopez won in first round against Kubot 6-3, 6-3. I saw this match and Lopez didn't play well. Roddick didn't play since march (he won in miami on hard). Roddick has good stats on clay 73-38. Both player are big servers, but Roddick has better percentage on serve. That's why I think Roddick is going to win today. :hope:hope

VOID Monaco - Almagro: Monaco win - 4 pts - 2.70 Sportingbet Today I'll go against the odds. H2H is 3-1 for Almagro. Almagro was outstanding yesterday. But he is very inconsistent player. Monaco seems in good form here also. And he needs points, because he lost a lot of in previous tournaments. Odd 2.70 for Monaco is very good to not to play. :hope:hope

[Atko]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Really tough card today. I'm only going for one selection here... Madrid - Ernests Gulbis vs Feliciano Lopez Under 22 games AH at 1.98 (Pinnacle) These two met in Rome a few weeks ago with Gulbis winning 7-6 6-1. I believe Gulbis will be too strong again for Lopez on this surface. Lopez has had a pretty easy route through to the R16. He was scrappy against Lukasz Kubot but came through, and then he profited from Andy Roddick's withdrawal by beating lucky loser Oscar Hernandez in straight sets. I think Gulbis is a different proposition entirely though. He's proven that he's comfortable on this surface - his movement and timing is good - and his form has been emphasised by a good win over Mikhail Youzhny yesterday. Lopez, IMO, is quite a one dimensional player. He's got a huge serve and likes to volley but he hasn't got a whole lot else after that. I reckon Gulbis will be able to unpick him here. I considered the -4.5 handicap and Gulbis in straight sets but I believe this line holds the best value, and of course offers cover if Lopez decides he's a world beater and thumps him, which I can't see happening. Smallish stakes recommended but I reckon Gulbis can cover this line. Bet strength: 4/10 Good luck :hope

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Sport	Tennis
Event	Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs. Gael Monfils
Selection	Monfils
Strength	10/10
Date	13/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.92 (Back)
Reasoning	Well, a quite long pause have influenced these odds on Monfils, he didn't played since Indian Wells, game where he has lost incredible from Simon Greul. Then Monfils didn't played his tennis thats for sure, but that have nothing to do with the situation of the moment as certain here at Madrid he did looked ok, against Robert there were quite many ups and downs in his play, but in the end he was in control as he has won in straight sets. Of course that Monfils didn't impressed too much in his first game here at Madrid but the truth is that he has underrated his opponent, against Garcia his attitude should be much more serious. About Garcia I will say that this guy is in a very good form at the moment, there are no doubts about that but still class difference remains class difference as Monfils is just clear the better player. Monfils can play great in defence and that gives him all the chances to win against a player like Garcia, a player who attack more than defend. Monfils do not need big form to win against Garcia as his game style is based more on the deffensive skills. All in all, IMO Monfils should play a much better tennis today against Garcia as there will be all about his attitude before the game. Good Luck!

[mearl]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Petrova and Gulbis got good wins for me today, Tsonga a void.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Rafael Nadal v John Isner
Selection	Rafael Nadal -4.5 games
Strength	10/10
Date	13/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 2.10 (Back)
Reasoning	Paddy Power first ones to have a handicap market up, but doesn't this handicap just 'feel' wrong? Especially when getting Nadal at odds against. nadal didn't look too sharp today, but it was first match after a little break and he can come out sharper tomorrow. The clay is playing very quick but at home I'll take Nadal over really a non-clay player like Isner at this price. Isner showed he can play on clay last week in Belgrade, and definately has a lot of heart. But he's come from that and had 2 tough 3 set matches here, now up against Nadal could be too much. Really think this should be -5.5 when Nadal is odds against.

You were quick to hoover up some value. Now the best available is -4.5 @ 1.80 or -5.5 @ 2.10. I'm in two minds over this bet. I like the bet but at 1.8 I'm not now sure if it is still value.

[Kireca]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Where I can see order of play for Thursday of Madrid. On http://en.madrid-open.com/ doesnt work? Thanks

[lato89]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May do you guys think Cilic will get at least one set today vs Ferrer ?

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May I honestly do not think so. Baggy played really well yesterday and Ferrer still overcame him in a very tight situation. Cilic was not impressive on clay so far this year, so the only bet that I would consider for that match is Ferrer on -3 handicap, otherwise no value imo.

[lato89]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May tnx for info :)

[Atko]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

do you guys think Cilic will get at least one set today vs Ferrer ?

Tend to agree with CzechPunter. Cilic did destroy Eduardo Schwank yesterday but Ferrer's a class act on this surface and a couple of steps above Schwank. Cilic is still to convince me on clay. The only thing that might hinder Ferrer, IMO, is fatigue.

[mearl]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

You were quick to hoover up some value. Now the best available is -4.5 @ 1.80 or -5.5 @ 2.10. I'm in two minds over this bet. I like the bet but at 1.8 I'm not now sure if it is still value.

Cramer...Nadal match not yet started yet. I've actually decided to side with Isner +5.5 at 1.80 (earlier odds were I think 1.9) Isner is now 6-6 on clay this season. As a commentator said yesterday the Americans are starting to produce more players not adverse to playing on clay. Isner will like the fast surface for obvious reasons and it is harder for Nadal to use his topspin to full effect at altitude. Hopefully Nadal wins by 5 games and we both collect!

[burf]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Where I can see order of play for Thursday of Madrid. On http://en.madrid-open.com/ doesnt work? Thanks

Try here for order of play

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Nadal wins by 4:sad

Sport	Tennis
Event	Roger Federer v Stanislas Wawrinka
Selection	Stanislas Wawrinka
Strength	10/10
Date	13/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 3.20 (Back)
Reasoning	I'm going to go with Wawrinka here. Saw Federer against Becker and still he doesn't look great. Not focussed, and even 'playing' with Becker even when 2nd set was close. I don't think he#s got a really high level at the moment and Wawrinka will have a chance. Of course this is mentor/protege situation but at least Wawrinka has beaten him before, in Monte Carlo when Federer wasn't in good shape. Wawrinka looks decent at the moment, and has a good chance in this match.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Sport	Tennis
Event	Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs. Gael Monfils
Selection	Monfils
Strength	10/10
Date	13/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.92 (Back)
Reasoning	Well, a quite long pause have influenced these odds on Monfils, he didn't played since Indian Wells, game where he has lost incredible from Simon Greul. Then Monfils didn't played his tennis thats for sure, but that have nothing to do with the situation of the moment as certain here at Madrid he did looked ok, against Robert there were quite many ups and downs in his play, but in the end he was in control as he has won in straight sets. Of course that Monfils didn't impressed too much in his first game here at Madrid but the truth is that he has underrated his opponent, against Garcia his attitude should be much more serious. About Garcia I will say that this guy is in a very good form at the moment, there are no doubts about that but still class difference remains class difference as Monfils is just clear the better player. Monfils can play great in defence and that gives him all the chances to win against a player like Garcia, a player who attack more than defend. Monfils do not need big form to win against Garcia as his game style is based more on the deffensive skills. All in all, IMO Monfils should play a much better tennis today against Garcia as there will be all about his attitude before the game. Good Luck!

:ok Good shout mate.