Tennis > 10-16 May

[AntoNescU]

Sport Tennis Event Stephane Robert-Gael Monfils Selection Stephane Robert (Lay) Strength 10/10 Date 10/05/2010 Bookmaker/Price Betfair @ 4.00 (Lay) Reasoning On clay this year,Stephane Robert played relatively modest,winning with modest players and losing with Florent Serra or Benjamin Becker.For Monfils will be first game on clay this year.Monfils was a strong player in 2009 on this area,so I think he will not have more problems to win Monday.Play lay on Robert Stephane. Sport Tennis Event Nicolas Almagro-Viktor Troicki Selection Viktor Troicki (Lay) Strength 10/10 Date 10/05/2010 Bookmaker/Price Betfair @ 3.50 (Lay) Reasoning Almagro will play this match in his country and this will be an advantage .Almagro lost in 2010 on this area-clay- only with Tsonga ,Ljubicic and Cilic.Troicki on clay played relatively modest,when played with strong players like Wawrinka ,Tsonga or Robredo ,he lost.Almagro is a strong player,so play lay on Troicki. Sport Tennis Event Dinara Safina-Klara Zakopalova Selection Klara Zakopalova (Lay) Strength 10/10 Date 10/05/2010 Bookmaker/Price Betfair @ 3.80 (Lay) Reasoning Safina don't played so good so far on clay,winning with Szavay,but lost with Dulgheru or Peer.However,today will play with Zakopalova,a player from 87th place ATP.Zakopalova also played modest so far on clay and I do't think she can resist so much with more strong player Safina.Play lay on Zakopalova.

[marron]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Has Monfils been injured? Looking at the prices for him to win 2-0, tempting.

[marron]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May 6pts Gael Monfils to beat Stephane Robert 2-0 at Evens with Paddy Power Monfils had to withdraw from his last tournament due to injury but i am sure he wouldn't return unless he is 100% and ready to go. He has been given a good first round draw here against a player who hasn't done much on the atp tour and when on form can mix it with players with far greater ability. Monfils is an exciting player to watch, a brilliant athlete and has a good record on every surface. Robert has a good record on clay at lower levels but im confident that Monfils will return with a win here to make up for lost time.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May One bet for me in a trappy day's tennis today... Madrid - Kevin Anderson vs Jurgen Melzer Jurgen Melzer -3 games AH at 2.04 (Pinnacle) I think the handicap, in terms of units and in price, is too generous on Melzer here. He meets qualifier Anderson for the first time in his career. Anderson can be a tough opponent - he's a weaker version of Ivo Karlovic, big serve and big forehand but not a lot else. I still don't think he's best suited to clay. He beat Ivan Navarro to get through here but the Spaniard is a big server and nothing more too. Melzer is by far the more talented player. His recent form hasn't been as good as earlier in the year but he's taken a couple of weeks off the Tour and I expect him to come back recharged here. He's got good variety in his shots, a decent serve and the guile to break Anderson down. With the price above 2.00 I'm more than happy to play it. Bet strength: 5/10 Good luck :hope

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May I agree with Atko on that one. Another one I am going to pick today is Lopez against Kubot in -3.5 handicap (1.885 at pinny currently). Lopez is good on clay and in a very good form (defeated Cilic in Rome, for example). Kubot is the other way around - he played 4 good players (except perhaps Starace) and lost all. The motivation should be on Lopez side in Madrid too and I just cannot see why he should not continue winning. GL

[AntoNescU]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Sport Tennis Event Fabio Fognini-Phillipp Petzschner Selection Fabio Fognini (Lay) Strength 10/10 Date 11/05/2010 Bookmaker/Price Betdaq @ 2.78 (Lay) Reasoning Fabio Fognini was a modest player this year on clay.He played unpersuasive and obtained modest results.Phillipp Petzschner was a good player so far on clay,he winning with strong players some games,like the games with Berdych,Benneteau,Melzer or Garcia Lopez.In this conditions,play lay on Fognini.

[mniXo]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Moya - Becker: Becker win - 5 pts - 2.39 Pinnacle H2H is 1-0 for Becker (on indoor hard). Moya didn't play since March. Becker isn't very good on clay, BUT Moya is now without match practice. Becker lost in Munich to Hajek and won against Robert. I think he can win this match and odds are too good to not play.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Sport	Tennis
Event	Venus Williams v Vera Zvonareva
Selection	Vera Zvonareva
Strength	10/10
Date	10/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	VCBet @ 2.62 (Back)
Reasoning	I rate Zvonareva really high on clay and Venus quite low, so seems like a logical. It plays fast in Madrid but still I think this is worth a go. We saw last week Venus being totally destroyed by Jankovic and Zvonareva plays a similar game. I think these odds are OK.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Sport	Tennis
Event	Carlos Moya v Benjamin Becker
Selection	Benjamin Becker
Strength	10/10
Date	10/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 2.38 (Back)
Reasoning	Going against Moyas fitness here. Hasn't played for a while and could just be showing up because it's Madrid. He was OK in the earlier part of the clay season but nothing like his old game. Becker is quite poor on clay, but I like him and he can perform to a good level. Quick conditions will suit him and with questions over Moya this is worth a go.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

One bet for me in a trappy day's tennis today... Madrid - Kevin Anderson vs Jurgen Melzer Jurgen Melzer -3 games AH at 2.04 (Pinnacle) I think the handicap, in terms of units and in price, is too generous on Melzer here. He meets qualifier Anderson for the first time in his career. Anderson can be a tough opponent - he's a weaker version of Ivo Karlovic, big serve and big forehand but not a lot else. I still don't think he's best suited to clay. He beat Ivan Navarro to get through here but the Spaniard is a big server and nothing more too. Melzer is by far the more talented player. His recent form hasn't been as good as earlier in the year but he's taken a couple of weeks off the Tour and I expect him to come back recharged here. He's got good variety in his shots, a decent serve and the guile to break Anderson down. With the price above 2.00 I'm more than happy to play it. Bet strength: 5/10 Good luck :hope

Melzer d. Anderson 6-2 2-6 6-4 - LOSS Grrr, can't believe Melzer didn't cover that handicap, he served for the match at 5-2 in the third set. Very annoying indeed. Anyway, such things happen. @ marron - good call on Monfils :ok

[marron]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Tempted to take Safina 2-0 on the set betting as her opponent doesn't seem to have done too much on the tour but had a couple of good qualifying results. First thoughts are that Safina will want to come here and win this match convincingly. Anyone got any thoughts? Usually stay away from the womens tour due to it being very unpredictable, but the odds look fairly good

[marron]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Taking it, odds are too tempting..... 5pts Dinara Safina to beat Klara Zakopalova 2-0 at 10/11 with BlueSquare Safina has a solid game but is a bit suspect, in my opinion, when up against the bigger hitters on the tour. She is yet to win a Grand Slam tournament despite reaching 3 finals and her ability on clay is proven with 2 French Open final appearances. Safina's opponent has had a couple of good qualifying results but hasnt really done much on the tour and is therefore ranked alot lower than the Russian. She has an ok record on the surface in terms of matches won against matches lost but doesnt mix it with the better players often enough. Think these odds are fairly good so im happy to take a chance on this womens tour game.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Sport	Tennis
Event	Ernests Gulbis v Albert Montanes
Selection	ernests Gulbis
Strength	10/10
Date	11/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	VCBet @ 1.57 (Back)
Reasoning	Gulbis looks good to me here. He's really fulfilling his potential this year and producing a huge game. He's doing well on clay, and everyone must remember his games against Federer, Volandri and Nadal in Rome. Yeah he makes erros but that is offset by a lot of winners. Quick conditions in Madrid expect him to be able to rip through Montanes. Montanes too beat Federer, last week in Estoril, but you have to question how seriously Fed was taking that. Coming off that title win, can't see him repeating a big performance and Gulbis should be nicely rested and have too much.

[marron]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Taking it, odds are too tempting..... 5pts Dinara Safina to beat Klara Zakopalova 2-0 at 10/11 with BlueSquare Safina has a solid game but is a bit suspect, in my opinion, when up against the bigger hitters on the tour. She is yet to win a Grand Slam tournament despite reaching 3 finals and her ability on clay is proven with 2 French Open final appearances. Safina's opponent has had a couple of good qualifying results but hasnt really done much on the tour and is therefore ranked alot lower than the Russian. She has an ok record on the surface in terms of matches won against matches lost but doesnt mix it with the better players often enough. Think these odds are fairly good so im happy to take a chance on this womens tour game.

Rubbish, another reminder about keeping discipline and getting involved in events i feel im strong in.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Sport	Tennis
Event	Guillermo Garcia-Lopez v Daniel Gimeno-Traver
Selection	Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Strength	10/10
Date	11/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.51 (Back)
Reasoning	Garcia-Lopez is playing pretty well at the moments, putting together some wins. Lost in the semis last week to home boy Gil but that may not be too bad coming in here. Quick considering should suit his game and he should have the edge over his compatriot. Ginemo-traver hasn't been doing much, he came through qualifying but was struggling against Russell before a retirement. Garcia-Lopez is a couple of levels better and that class should tell.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Missed Nadal/Dolgopolov under 17.5 games...opened at Evens and now 4/6.... :wall....should have pulled the trigger the second I seen it.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Verdasco vs Karlovic OVER 21.5 games @ 4/6(Paddy Power:7/10) Can't see anything but a tight match here...Verdasco should come through in two tight ones or three here but I think Karlovic can keep it tight.Verdasco struggles against him big time....losing head-to-head 3-1...two of Karlovic's wins coming on grass and one on carpet(never played on clay). Obviously clay negates some of the pop on his serve but Madrid is played at Altitude so balls can travel quickly. Karlovic's matches usually cover this spread...his style of play makes most matches tight contests...he can push anyone at the top but also lower-ranked guys can hang with him as his return isn't good.Has beaten Korolev already here so far, Verdasco in incredible form....hope for a good test for him and cover the line. GL!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Berdych looks like value at 11/10 to beat Nalbandian IMO.If he serves well I think he can take this one. Haven't decided whether to go with it yet though.Berdych losing to Petschzner last week is slightly putting me off but different conditions and a bigger tournament. See in the morning about this one.

[marron]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May At first glance Bellucci looks a good bet at 1.8 to win in straight sets, against a player who has done well at challenger level but not much on the main tour. Anyone got any views on Pere Riba and the pro's/con's of this bet?

[AntoNescU]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Sport Tennis Event Schnyder-Radwanska Selection Schnyder (Lay) Strength 10/10 Date 11/05/2010 Bookmaker/Price Betfair @ 3.95 (Lay) Reasoning Patty Schnyder on clay played relatively modest on this area in 2010,winning games with modest opponents,like Arn,de Brito or Srebotnik.The only important victory was with Gisela Dulko,in 3 sets.Radwanska on this area won so far with Ivanovic or Kirilenko,but lost with Safarova or Peer.However,my opinion is that Radwanska is the better player certainly,being on 9th place ATP and she played more convincing than Schnyder so far.Lay on Schnyder. Sport Tennis Event Peer-Kleybanova Selection Kleybanova (Lay) Strength 10/10 Date 11/05/2010 Bookmaker/Price Betfair @ 2.98 (Lay) Reasoning Shahar Peer obtained this year on clay important results.She won with strong players like Kuznetova,Radwanska or Dinara Safina.I can say Peer is really a good player .Kleybanova played so far only 2 games on clay,losing with Roberta Vinci and won with Amanmuradova.Certainly Peer is the better player here and I expect she to win relatively easy this match,in 2 sets.Lay on Kleybanova.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

At first glance Bellucci looks a good bet at 1.8 to win in straight sets, against a player who has done well at challenger level but not much on the main tour. Anyone got any views on Pere Riba and the pro's/con's of this bet?

I'll be checking out the handicap for this one. Riba kept Berdych close in the first set of their meeting last week but the Czech hit the gas in the second. Bellucci's got plenty of talent, his only weakness is that mentally, he can go walkabout. Quicker clay court should suit him as he's got a big serve and a beast of a forehand - he's actually got a good indoor record so a quicker court won't faze him. I'd be surprised if Riba can hurt him but I'll need to look at it more tomorrow.

[marron]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May 7pts Thomasz Bellucci to beat Pere Riba 2-0 at 4/5 with Paddy Power 4/5 was available in a few places but has quickly disappeared and only one bookie still has it left. In his last 3 tournaments, Riba has been knocked out by Llodra, Greul and Berdych and beat a few players in the early/qualifying rounds outside the top 100 to get to those matches. Looking at his challenger and future tournament stats there is no doubt he is comfortable on clay but the only player he has beat recently of a decent standard is Lukas Lacko and that was in 3 sets in Munich. Bellucci is a big step up for the Spaniard from what he is used to playing, just like Berdych was, and i can see him struggling to cope with the Brazillian who has only really been beaten by quality clay courters over the last couple of months. Bellucci losing to the likes of Djokovic, Almagro and Ferrer during that time doesn't put me off as those are all top players on this surface and his career record on clay is good. Bellucci is used to playing with the top seeds here in Madrid and i think he will want to move into the next round with minimum court time to set up a match with Juan Monaco - a player he beat to win a clay court title in Chile earlier this year. If this match was against most other players around the same ranking and all round game of Riba the stakes would be closer to the maximum level but Riba's challenger/future clay record has held me back just a small amount. Nevertheless, a good wager on this one.

[marron]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

I'll be checking out the handicap for this one. Riba kept Berdych close in the first set of their meeting last week but the Czech hit the gas in the second. Bellucci's got plenty of talent' date=' his only weakness is that mentally, he can go walkabout. Quicker clay court should suit him as he's got a big serve and a beast of a forehand - he's actually got a good indoor record so a quicker court won't faze him. I'd be surprised if Riba can hurt him but I'll need to look at it more tomorrow.[/quote'] His big serve was a factor and i have took it as the price has gone in a couple of places. Hopefully he will be in a clinical mood and get the job done quick.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

His big serve was a factor and i have took it as the price has gone in a couple of places. Hopefully he will be in a clinical mood and get the job done quick.

Just checked out Riba's record at Tour, Challenger and Future level against lefties - he's got a record of W7 L11. Bellucci should be more than able to take care of Riba. I've decided to follow you on this one, 6/10 confidence. Fingers crossed. You can get 1.80 with Boyles.

[marron]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Boyles must be the only one odds-comparison arent showing.....ah well, at least it's on. Fingers crossed!

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Gulbis 2-0 is reasonable because courts of Madrid is fast claycourts and Gulbis has momentum and one weeks rest while Montanes just won a title. I take notice that both players have beaten Federer recently on clay but Gulbis are rested and these claycourts suits him.

[marron]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Gulbis odds look tempting but he is very inconsistent, one of a couple of players i tend to stay away from in alot of matches.

[ShanAce]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May 4/5 is the same as 1.8

[mniXo]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Moya - Becker: Becker win - 5 pts - 2.39 Pinnacle H2H is 1-0 for Becker (on indoor hard). Moya didn't play since March. Becker isn't very good on clay, BUT Moya is now without match practice. Becker lost in Munich to Hajek and won against Robert. I think he can win this match and odds are too good to not play.

Moya - Becker 0-6, 2-6 +6.95 pts :nana:nana

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May I don't see why they keep making Chela favourite because he won a title in Houston. Pablo Cuevas could easily win. Cuevas 2.20 is wrong but I wont touch the match. A very interesting matchup is between Hanescu and Andreev. Defenitely an equally contested classic claycourt battle of who keeps mentally clear and that usually is not Andreevs strong side but this will most likely go to 3 sets or a very tight match. Looking h2h Hanescu leads 2-1 on clay and two of the matches where close and featured many games and Hanescu won his both matches in straight sets. GG-Lopez should make quick work of his qualifier opponent Gimeno-Traver so 2-0 GG-Lopez 2.20 feels ok. Why is Petzschner going down like a meteor and the odds on Fognini raising like a rocket? 3.00 @ Fognini? What? I don't get it. Fognini is still a very capable claycourter and I don't trust the german. But this match is nothing I feel like touching but I think I'll try Foggis in a fourfold with Baghdatis 2-0, GG-Lopez 2-0, Bellucci 2-0 and see where it goes. Fourfold pays 17.48 @ bet365 low stakes and a high stake on treble without Foggis.