Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010

[muppet77]

For all 64 matches, Spin have priced up the fastest goal to be 90-100 seconds. ("tournament specials" in "International football"). The stop loss for this market (for me at least) is 300. Say you sell at 90 seconds, this equates to there being at least one goal in 90s x 64 matches = 1h 34 minutes of football. Checking the previous fastest goals form WCs looks good too: 37 second average for WCs with 64 matches and 70 seconds for all of these - with 8/9 under 90 seconds.

	fastest
WC	seconds	matches	profit/loss
2006	70	64	£20
2002	11	64	£79
1998	30	64	£60
1994	90	52	£0
1990	250	52	-£160
1986	30	52	£60
1982	30	52	£60
1978	30	38	£60
1974	90	38	£0

average profit for the 64 match WCs is £53 and for all WCs it is £20. I couldn't find the exact second of scoring for the oldies, so if it was recorded as "1st minute" I used "30 seconds" as a midpoint etc etc. I believe that the goal times are heavily linked to the total goals expected, and their estimate is 159-161.5 which is a goals per game average of 2.50 - so nothing far from average. I have not wagered myself but surely this is a nail on "SELL". What does everyone think?

[clarky101]

Re: Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010 Done this in 2002,not sure what the spread was, but Haken Suker bought the bacon home in the 3rd place match if my dodgy memory serves me right....

[muppet77]

Re: Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010 @ 11 seconds.

[salford_student]

Re: Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010

For all 64 matches, Spin have priced up the fastest goal to be 90-100 seconds. ("tournament specials" in "International football"). The stop loss for this market (for me at least) is 300. Say you sell at 90 seconds, this equates to there being at least one goal in 90s x 64 matches = 1h 34 minutes of football.

Muppet your assuming, that the rate goals are scored are constnat throughtout a match. This is not the case,first of all the rate goals are scored increases througout the match. this is why 44% of goals are scored in the first half. Secondly,your first forgetting about first minute effects. Have a look at this data 01mins - 0.50% 02mins - 0.85% 10mins - 0.95% 20mins - 0.95% 30mins - 1.05% 40mins - 1.05% 45mins - 3.25% 46mins - 0.60% 50mins - 1.15% 60mins - 1.20% 70mins - 1.10% 80mins - 1.20% 85mins - 1.25% 89mins - 1.35% 90mins - 5.40% These are the goal rates for the premiership. notice how a) the rate increases through out the match b) there is noticable deviation in the trend at min 1 and min 46.

[muppet77]

Re: Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010 that's all good stuff salford, thanks. Even so 8 out of 9 wcs were under the spread. are you able to break your premiership data into batches of 64 games and say how many batches had a goal under 90 seconds and also was the average goals per game around 2.5? That would be pretty cool if so.

[muppet77]

Re: Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010 Actually salford your stats support the bet....... If the scoring rate in that premiership sample is equal to or more than 2.5 then you would expect there to be 0.92% of goals in the first minute and a half. They expect 160 goals so in total they expect 0.92% of 160 to be under 90 seconds, which is 1.47 goals. So we could expect there to be one or two goals under the spread if you base it on your data.

[muppet77]

Re: Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010 Actually I realise I don't understand your scoring rates. What do they mean and why are they in %s and don't add up to 100? Are they the % of goals scored in that minute and you have only published a sample of the 90? If so then the expectation of 1.47 stands.

[That Foreign Guy]

Re: Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010 They seem to have taken it down or I can't find it. Either way :(

[salford_student]

Re: Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010

Actually I realise I don't understand your scoring rates. What do they mean and why are they in %s and don't add up to 100? Are they the % of goals scored in that minute and you have only published a sample of the 90? If so then the expectation of 1.47 stands.

The score rates are the percentage of goals scored in that minute. They dont add upto a minute as I have only give the key minutes, e.g. each 10 min period and the start and end of each half as these are significantly different to the adjancent minutes as you would expect. To get the score rates of the minutes listed, you just need to interpolate between two values. If you work out the rates for each minute doing this, you will find they add upto approx 100%

[salford_student]

Re: Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010

Actually salford your stats support the bet....... If the scoring rate in that premiership sample is equal to or more than 2.5 then you would expect there to be 0.92% of goals in the first minute and a half. They expect 160 goals so in total they expect 0.92% of 160 to be under 90 seconds, which is 1.47 goals. So we could expect there to be one or two goals under the spread if you base it on your data.

yes thats the correct analysis. I thinks its a good bet, but not as good as it first appears due the scoring rates not being level throughout the match.

[muppet77]

Re: Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010 But its value isn't it and that's what counts. Expect kevin pullein to be copying my mathematical proof and reason.

[salford_student]

Re: Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010

But its value isn't it and that's what counts. .

Totally agree

[muppet77]

Re: Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010 Who's on this bet? Less than a week to go!

[clarky101]

Re: Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010 Yep i;m on for a tenspot p/sec.....heres hoping eh M..:ok

[byronb]

Re: Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010 What is the site that is carrying this market? I have a book that will give 1:1 on a goal scored before 1:40 in any wc game. Trying to figure if it has value.