KENTUCKY DERBY - Sat 1 May

[stewartd14]

Race goes off at 23.24 at Churchill Downs. The 2 favourites (Lookin at Lucky and Sidneys Candy) are both synthetic horses, and on the current sloppy track, I worry about those 2. Sidneys Candy actually beat the fav last time, which is interesting. Anyway, I have sided with 4 against the field in this unique race: SUPER SAVER - Borel rides this track like no other jockey, has an ideal draw, and will be the inside pace. He arguably ran one of his best races on a sloppy track, and makes a lot of sense tonight. AWESOME ACT - Been a fan of this horse for obvious reasons, and this race will set up much better for him than the Wood. He is classy, and Noseda reckons he will handle the slop. NOBLE'S PROMISE - A horse that deserves another chance IMO - I believe he is better than what we have seen of him prior. STATELY VICTOR - A strange Derby entrant, but there is no knocking (IMO) his recent Keeneland win to get him into this race. One of the better longshots IMO. Picks: AWESOME ACT @ 11.0 SUPER SAVER @ 12.0 NOBLE'S PROMISE @ 25.0 STATELY VICTOR @ 25.0 All betfair Good luck anyone punting.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY - Sat 1 May Good luck Stew - posted this in bbotd ...

11:24 Churchill Downs - Super Saver - 0.5pts e/w (1/4' date= 123) @ 14/1 (Bet365) I like the chances of Super Saver in tonight's Kentucky Derby at Bet365's stand-out offer of 14/1 - as short as 9/1 with VCBet. Super Saver comes into the race in good form and as one of only 2 Course winners in the 20-strong field. That Course win was in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, a Grade 2, last Autumn, and both of his runs so far in 2010 have not been without promise. Last time out he finished 1/4L 2nd to Line Of David in the Arkansas Derby, and reopposes that one today on 4lbs better terms. A further 1/4L back there was Dublin, but that one comes out of Gate 17 tonight - a negative being drawn that wide. Super Saver has been drawn in Gate 4, and could hardly have wished for a better draft looking at Gate positions of Kentucky Derby winners since 1900: 1 – 12 2 – 9 3 – 8 4 – 10 5 – 12 6 – 6 7 – 8 8 – 10 9 – 4 10 – 10 11 – 3 12 – 3 13 – 4 14 – 2 15 – 3 16 – 3 17 – 0 18 – 1 19 – 0 20 - 2 My biggest concern is Super Saver getting drawn into a battle for the lead with others who like to set the pace like Line Of David in 5 and American Lion in 7. There's a couple of others drawn wider who like to lead, and I am hoping Calvin Borel has learned from last night's fading 3rd having led in the Oaks.