Me, The Bookmaker

[Evertonboy]

I would like to introduce you all to my new venture. Playing the role of the bookmaker. First, a little bit about myself. I currently work for One of the big four bookies as a shop manager. I have been in the industry for 3 years. In this 3 years I have picked up some valuable knowledge that I aim to capitilise on in the future. I have also read Nick Pulliens guide to betting on football as well as his articles in the racing post. Now that yu know a little about me, I'll explain my new experimental venture... I aim to capitalise on 2 things. The bookmakers and the fact that they have to lay a price for virtually everything sports related, where as me, the punter come bookmaker can pick and choose what I lay a price on through betfair. And second, the punters stupidity to accept unfair prices on certain events. At the moment, I will solely be concentrating on football matches. Like I was saying, I have read nick pulliens book. This inspired me to use his formulas and create a spreadsheet to work out 'true odds' on things such as total goals, corners and bookings. Once I have input the data and created the fair odds. I will look at the lay prices on betfair to see if any outcome on that particular Market is being laid at unfair odds, then I too, will lay that price. Eg under 2.5 goals: calculated value odds of 2.2, actual lay odds on betfair 1.8 then it becomes a lay. At the minute I'm going to paper trail it (to see if the fomulas are accurate and Which are most profitable etc). I would also like to add a loss recovery mechanism such as laying 2 outcomes to gaurentee a little income regardless. Obviously depends on how many possible outcomes there are. Any suggestions?

[muppet77]

Re: Me, The Bookmaker That sounds like a great investigation. You may have to be quick to knock up the spreadsheet as the matches are running out. I am sure that it will be pretty simple to create and could read the data from a couple of results columns from football-data.co.uk. A few seasons worth is all that you would need as I think most of the formulae operate within the last 32 games or so and you may have to discount promoted teams from august until they build up a history. Be sure to post your findings and picks on here. This is something that I have always wanted to try if I had bit more time. Give us a shout if you need excel help at all.