Dutching score system

[leftism]

Hi guys, just thought i'd share my first attempt at a betting system. I'm a long time lurker, first time poster. We'll call the system 'Dutching Score'. The system is simple but seems to work very consistently in multiple leagues! I have backtested the system, refining the odds range for entry bets etc, adding a loss recovery mechanism and have come up with a consistent strike rate in all european leagues i've tested it on... I've also papertrailed it for the last two seasons in Eng, Ita, Spa leagues and have had consistent profits (not massive profits but consistent). At the same time i'm not convinced of what i'm doing and thought some of you experienced guys could spot some pitfalls in my theory and give me some advice. Strike rates: English Prem (2010): 70.5% English Prem (2009): 76.4% English Prem (2008): 71.3% English Prem (2007): 78.3% English Prem (2006): 79.5% English Prem (2005): 72.9% Italy Seria A (2009): 80.9% Italy Seria A (2008): 82.7% Spain Primera (2009): 76.2% Spain Primera (2008): 76.2% German Bundesliga (2009): 74.6% Ok so the selection criteria are simple: 1)Any home teams with pre-game lay odds between 2 -1.4 2)Any away teams with pre-game lay odds between 1.8-1.3 I've run the numbers on Matlab and these odds seem to give the most consistent strike rates from season to season and league to league. Betting system: 1) Once a team meets your selection criteria, lay the team. 2) Dutch scorelines 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 in favour of the selected team. 3) Sit back and pray!!! hehe :tongue2 The average yield per game is approximately 40% but it can be as little as 20% or as high as 60%. I'll throw in an example for tomorrow 19/04/2010: League: English Premier Match: Liverpool v West Ham Lay Odds:1.42 (stake=23.) Score Odds: 1-0 @ 7.8 (stake=4.27) 2-0 @ 7.4 (stake=4.63) 2-1 @ 9.4 (stake=3.54) Total Liability: 21.9 Potential Profit: 11.02 Yield: 50.7%

[leftism]

Re: Dutching score system I'm gonna papertrail the remainder of this season just for giggles and see what comes up. As with all plans, Murphy's law usually has a way of screwing things up but we'll see anyways. If someone could help me download spreadsheets here i'll put up a nice weekly results sheet for the system but for the moment i'll just post up. You'll have to trust me on the profits i'm getting per game coz i'm not gonna put up all the score odds for each game, it'll just confuse things. I'm gonna start with a bankroll of 2000 euro and work off bets of 1% starting bankroll (around 20 euro per game). Loss recovery system is a basic martingale approach with a factor of 2 (divided up on next weeks games). Again it seemed to work well backtesting but maybe there is a better way??? Ok so todays matches that were selected last night were as follows: 1)Dortmund v Hoffenheim: Liability (18.9 euro), potential profit (9.17) 2)Catania v Siena: Liability (18.4), potential profit (6.6) 3)Bilbao v Zaragosa: Liability (17.8), potential profit (7.12) 4)Real Madrid v Valencia Liability (17.1), potential profit (15.6) 5)Portsmouth v Aston Villa: liability (19.7), potential profit (7.7) 6)Wigan v Arsenal: liability (18.45), potential profit (9.5)