hornet_18 Posted April 13, 2010 Share Posted April 13, 2010 For those of you who dont know, I love my golf. I've created a rating system that takes a few hours a week to create which includes the important stats, course form, current form and a players ability to win. I will try and start to include form on similar tracks. I used to use it to help with my bets but it started taking up too much time, however, I've started making it more automated and thus felt I could put the results and odds up here before the tournaments and see if anyone can see how we can utilise the results best after a few weeks of watching. With Golf I like to believe if you dig in to the stats deep enough you can almost always find the winner - thus over the coming weeks I will no doubt be tweaking the scoring system to see how it goes. If anyone would like to give any feedback or give any help, it would be appreciated and I look forward to hearing it! This weeks ratings for the Verizon Heritage are below. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerryPFC Posted April 13, 2010 Share Posted April 13, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings I was looking for that Marino fella who pipped Haas to top debutant at the masters? Any reason he's not in the above list? Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotlandspunter Posted April 13, 2010 Share Posted April 13, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Hello there, I have always been into my golf, but only recently have I started looking into picking winners from it. I was just wondering if you could explain how this rating system works? Thanks Scotlandspunter :ok:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted April 13, 2010 Author Share Posted April 13, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings I was looking for that Marino fella who pipped Haas to top debutant at the masters? Any reason he's not in the above list? Cheers He was on the original field list but he isnt anymore, and isnt on the bookies lists, so I assumed he'd pulled out of the tournament after his performance at the Masters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted April 14, 2010 Author Share Posted April 14, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Hello there, I have always been into my golf, but only recently have I started looking into picking winners from it. I was just wondering if you could explain how this rating system works? Thanks Scotlandspunter :ok:ok OK basically as I said above I take in to account important stats, recent form, course form and ability to win. It is relatively simplistic in the way that I create the individual rankings but quite in depth with the factors that are looked at. Obviously in the coming weeks I'm hoping it can be tweaked and perfected in to a powerful tool in picking winners with a bit of input from others! In this tournament I feel the important stats are driving accuracy, scrambling, putting, putting from 15ft or closer and proximity to hole. I take all the players stats in these categories for 2009 and 2010 and give them a ranking for this. Recent form I look at their last 3 tournaments, whether they had a top 10 in the last 3 (especially in their last tournament), their consistency and then rank them for their recent form based on this. Course form I looked at their course average, number of top 10s, last 3 years performances, how many times they played the course and whether they'd won here before and score them for each accordingly. Ability to win is basically whether they've won before and whether that has been in the past 3 years (e.g. Elkington has won 10 times on tour but last won in 1999 so that should be taken in to account as a negative compared to Kim who has won 3 times - many less than Elkington - but all in the last 3 years). I also look in to whether they've won on other tours (e.g. Karlsson is playing this week and has never won in America but has plenty of recent European Tour wins). Then a score is given for this. The score is then compiled for all these and that is shown in the first column. The ranking is obviously the second colum and then the best odds offered is in the third. Obviously looking at that you can see that someone like Camilo Villegas @ 28/1 offers pretty poor value according to the statistics - however, remember it is obviously all up to judgement. The guy is a class player and has solid course form, however, he is wild off the tee (134th accuracy), scrambling badly this year (138th) and his form has tailed off a bit since his win 4 weeks ago (just outside the recent form framework) so isn't considered a good pick within the statistics. If you want anymore info just let me know but hope this explains a bit about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted April 14, 2010 Share Posted April 14, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings As a regular follower of your very successful tips in the Other Sports Forum may i welcome you to the Systems and Strategy Forum. Will be interesting to see the results of where everyone finishes based on your list. Good Luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerryPFC Posted April 14, 2010 Share Posted April 14, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Mark Brooks looks value for a top 10 or at least top 20 finish based on him being a 750/1 outright shot and sitting 15th in your rankings? I confess to having no idea how your system works... I understand the principle, but not how you award the points for each factor to come up with the overall score... it must be very precise, going to 2 decimal places! To be honest, call it blind faith, I've seen and followed your success with your golf picks this year and whatever your doing, its working! So best of luck for the rest of the year and keep up the good work! I for one, appreciate the effort you put in to find me winners!!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotlandspunter Posted April 14, 2010 Share Posted April 14, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Thanks for explaining that mate, interesting idea and strategy, will definatly be following you with this and hoping it is successfull for you :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salparadise Posted April 14, 2010 Share Posted April 14, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Mark Brooks looks value for a top 10 or at least top 20 finish based on him being a 750/1 outright shot and sitting 15th in your rankings? Mark Brooks @ 65 for top 10 finish :eek Ill definately be following this thread I think its a great idea... Out of interest do you look more for winners or have you ever looked for value in top 10, top 20 finishes or even to make the cut? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted April 14, 2010 Author Share Posted April 14, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Mark Brooks @ 65 for top 10 finish :eek Ill definately be following this thread I think its a great idea... Out of interest do you look more for winners or have you ever looked for value in top 10, top 20 finishes or even to make the cut? I look for whatever I see as value I guess! In the case of Mark Brooks, he literally has the perfect game for the course. Very accurate off the tee, solid putter (not Tiger but still no worse than the average), fantastic scrambler and is this year top in proximity to hole in the 4 tournaments he has played. However, he just seems to miss cuts and since the beginning of 2003 he only has three top 10s, and they were a T9 and two T10s so 65s seems about right!! He has a fantastic game for the course but has missed the cut here in his last 7 efforts. It's a bit strange but definitely one to leave and feel gutted about later OR put a really tiny bet on it i.e. if you find 50p down the side of the sofa unexpectedly!! As for the system, I will be adjusting the scoring methods over the coming weeks so hopefully it will become more accurate as we go along (although obviously I hope that all top 5 will be near the top of the rankings!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted April 14, 2010 Author Share Posted April 14, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings As a regular follower of your very successful tips in the Other Sports Forum may i welcome you to the Systems and Strategy Forum. Will be interesting to see the results of where everyone finishes based on your list. Good Luck Barrhead, thanks for the support - hopefully will be able to find something profitable :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotlandspunter Posted April 14, 2010 Share Posted April 14, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings When will you be posting your bets for the competition that begins tomorrow mate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted April 14, 2010 Author Share Posted April 14, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings My bets are in the Other Sports forum on the standard golf betting. These use the system above, however, not exclusively. The system is more here to see whether it can be exclusively used and honed for the use of finding value. The bets I've taken for this week are: Brian Gay @ 36 ew Rank 2 Scott Verplank @ 51 ew Rank 5 Brandt Snedeker @ 67 ew Rank 7 JP Hayes @ 126 ew Top 10 @ 12 Rank 16 However, again I stress, for the moment, the above is really for observational/aiding process rather than to stick to religiously in finding value! Over the next few weeks I'll see how accurate it is and see how it can be used to profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LAMPS Posted April 14, 2010 Share Posted April 14, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotlandspunter Posted April 14, 2010 Share Posted April 14, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Thanks Hornett, Definatly going to be following these picks this week in the hope they come through for you.. Thanks for going to the effort of explaining it to me :ok All the best, Scotlandspunter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted April 14, 2010 Author Share Posted April 14, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Lamps, obviously it's up to you how you interpret the data just on the face of things, however, as I said, I havent used the data tables exactly as I dont feel they're quite they're yet and this is just effectively the original prototype. At the moment it is highly based on the statistics as this is the heaviest weighting (100), followed by recent form (63), course form (50) and winning ability (15). That is probably why Brooks is so high because he ranks fantastically on the stats but awfully on the recent and course form. I'm already working on a few changes to that for next few weeks so will look in to how to make it a fairer more round ranking - possibly 75 stats, 50 recent form, 50 course form and 20 winning ability so you get a player who is playing well, suits the course, knows the course and knows how to win more than just a player who seems like he suits the course but is playing poorly (Brooks). I will play around with a few formulas etc and see how things go I guess! As for your points at the bottom: Gay & Verplank ew - I've picked both of them (and Verplank was using the rankings so I clearly dont practice what I preach!!), so clearly you are seeing that the right way. Maggert I did look at closely but I left him out using JP Hayes as my real long shot in there (he is around the same ranking as the three you mentioned). Couch is a difficult one, he is playing well and high up on the all around ranking but I'm waiting for the right opportunity to back him - probably the Zurich Classic in a few weeks. Brooks I've made my thoughts clear on and I feel the ranking system slants the stats in his favour. I think this is a wait and see whether the weightings of the rankings are correct because I used a similar (but different) system earlier in the season - before my computer deleted itself (very frustrating) - and it came up with some very impressive results. Both Haas and Crane were picked out in the top 10 at odds of 80/1 and 70/1 so there is hope - you've just got to know how to use it! It'll probably flop this week now but we'll see! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LAMPS Posted April 14, 2010 Share Posted April 14, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Thank you pal and all the best to you :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted April 16, 2010 Share Posted April 16, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Hello there, this is my first post in here so be gentle. Firstly, I am not one for other peoples systems as such, I prefer to do the work myself. However, I've been trying (and failing) to cracK the world of golf betting. I'd be intrested to hear where you get your stats from (such as putting, driving, scrambling etc. as well as what course requires certain skills more than smothers etc) any help woul be greatly appreciated and good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLubet Posted April 16, 2010 Share Posted April 16, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Hi All, This interests me so im going to stick my oar in. From the top 30 on the very detailed ratings (good work by the way). The players listed below are within 5 strokes of the leader after round 1. From your previous experience would the winner come from that list? Or Can any imformation be gathered which may be of help? Hope i havent left anyone out. PlayerRd1RatingsPosK.J. Choi -741stMike Weir -5122ndWoody Austin -423T4thDavis Love III -429T4thBo Van Pelt -428T4thJerry Kelly -419T4thGlen Day -426T4thTim Clark -49T4thJim Furyk -41T4thBoo Weekley -318T17thLuke Donald -28T28thJ.P. Hayes -216T28th The Lubet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted April 16, 2010 Author Share Posted April 16, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings OK, will try to answer both questions in one post. Jamie, :welcome to the PL, good to have you here! As for where my stats are from - all from pgatour.com which is absolutely fantastic for the stats lovers such as myself. Totally agree with you on liking to find the stats/info myself (even if it's exactly the same as others!!); just like to do the work myself and just double check. Course wise I check the previous years and which players have thrived/what stats have been most prevalent in those at the top of the leaderboard. Then work from there. Seems to be going OK so far. If you check out the Other Sports forum and the golf topics there, I've put up a few (relatively detailed) explainations of past bets, as have a few others who are pretty useful so it's worth having a look at to see where we take our ideas from. Lubet, as with anything it's nice to be doing well after one round (or in other terms it's nice to be 1-0 in the first half or 1 set up in a grand slam match) however, as these ratings are only in their infancy at the moment it's difficult to tell how it can be related to in running so far and to be honest, it probably depends on the tournament. At the Masters for example, you dont get people coming from way back even after a round (9 of the top 10 were within two of the lead after round 1) but then other tournaments may be veru different; each has to be judged on merit. It's difficult to say at this point but hopefully we'll be looking in to and finding out in the next few weeks how the ratings above can be used most effectively to make some $$$ (whether it be through 72 hole match ups, outright betting, in running or first leader - I dont care too much as long as it pays out!!). :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted April 16, 2010 Share Posted April 16, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Thanks for the welcome and response, and believe it or not, as simple as the principles in tour methods seem (such as check the stats for previous winners) hadn't even crossed my mind! Thanks for pointers and I'll definatley be following them ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLubet Posted April 17, 2010 Share Posted April 17, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Rd2 Top 30 rating within 5 strokes of leader. PlayerRd1RatingsPosJim Furyk -711stBoo Weekley-618T4thLuke Donald -58T9thTim Clark-59T9thZach Johnson -514T9thJ.P. Hayes-516T9thHeath Slocum -522T9thWoody Austin -523T9thMatt Kuchar-43T22ndK.J. Choi -44T22ndJerry Kelly-419T22ndMike Weir-312T33rdStephen Ames -320T33rdBo Van Pelt -328TT33rdGlen Day-226T42ndD.J. Trahan -227T42ndPaul casey-230T42nd The Lubet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLubet Posted April 18, 2010 Share Posted April 18, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings PlayerRd3RatingsPosJim Furyk-1111stStephen Ames-920T3rdLuke Donald-98T3rdBoo Weekley-918T3rdHeath Slocum-922T3rdWoody Austin-923T3rdBo Van Pelt-828T10thZach Johnson-714T14th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LAMPS Posted April 19, 2010 Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Player Name Overall Score Ranking Odds Jim Furyk 123.52 1 17 Although I wasn't on i must applaud you here mate, the number one of your rankings went on to win. :clap p.s Is there a rankings sheet for the European tour events? well done mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted April 19, 2010 Author Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Below are the top 10 from this weeks tournament with their scores, rankings and pre-tourney odds. Jim Furyk 123.52 1 17 Brian Davis 60.43 53 176 Bo Van Pelt 73.76 28 81 Luke Donald 89.26 8 41 Kris Blanks 46.37 88 301 Camilo Villegas 54.33 70 29 Ricky Barnes 38.53 99 151 Stuart Appleby 27.49 119 151 Rickie Fowler 34.04 111 81 Nick O'Hern 68.45 39 151 Heath Slocum 76.14 22 71 Obviously we can see that the big statistical winner (and tournament) favourite actually won @ 17, however, the only other player from the top 10 of the rankings who did anything of note was Luke Donald @ 41 finishing in a tie for 3rd. Intersting read but obviously not perfect. One notable was Woody Austin who was 23rd in the rankings with odds of 126 - he finished with a bogey, quad bogey (5 over for the last two holes!!) so if you discounted them he would have finished in a tie for 3rd showing that there is something there. Need to do a bit more work and a few more adaptations before I start using it as a definitive tool! Will try and get the ratings for the Zurich Classic up tomorrow. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted April 19, 2010 Author Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Player Name Overall Score Ranking Odds Jim Furyk 123.52 1 17 Although I wasn't on i must applaud you here mate, the number one of your rankings went on to win. :clap p.s Is there a rankings sheet for the European tour events? well done mate Thanks Lamps. Sadly I wasn't on Jim either but he was a long way ahead of the rest and whichever way I mucked around with the scorings and the rankings he was always miles ahead which said something! Possibly at 16/1 it was value although I feel I ignored it a bit too quickly?! As for European Tour events, I havent done that for two reasons: 1) This one takes up quite a bit of time already and I wouldnt want to split the time until I have got this one closer to where I want it to be (both in results and automation). 2) The statistics and resources available online for the PGA Tour are so far superior to that of the E-Tour it is untrue. Obviously due to the popularity of the two tours copmared to one another, but considering the E-Tour has just revamped it's website, the statistical side of things is vastly superior on the pga website. Hopefully next week will pick out some good bets :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 20, 2010 Share Posted April 20, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Impressive start Hornet. Looking to get into golf betting so will be following this one with interest. Will be keen to see where Tim Petrovic ranks this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLubet Posted April 20, 2010 Share Posted April 20, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings PlayerRd3RatingsPosJim Furyk-1111stStephen Ames-920T3rdLuke Donald-98T3rdBoo Weekley-918T3rdHeath Slocum-922T3rdWoody Austin-923T3rdBo Van Pelt-828T10thZach Johnson-714T14th Hi, these players were your top 30 ranking who made it to within 5 strokes of the leader after round 3. The highlighted 5 were within 5 strokes each day. Only Boo Weekley failed to make to top 10. I am well impressed with your ratings and if we can narrow the field down after each round to provide the winner or top ten there is money to be made. Of course the best bet is the winner anti post. It could be possible to Filter a big price top 10 finish after round 1? The Lubet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted April 21, 2010 Author Share Posted April 21, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Looking at this I'd be opposing both Sergio and Mike Weir on some 72 hole match bets... I do like the look of Charles Howell III (see my write up on the other sports forum) as he is high up in all 4 categories. Tempted by Chris Couch but his win actually came at the other course which had been used previously so it should be taken with a pinch of salt but he has been playing well recently. The others I've taken are Stadler (top 7 for both) and DeLaet (top 19 for both with pretty awesome stats) - more for their stats and form rather than their course form as I feel these will be more prominent due to the lack of patterns shown by previous high performers in this tournament. Hopefully the stats will start to show more high finishes! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LAMPS Posted April 21, 2010 Share Posted April 21, 2010 Re: PGA Golf Ratings Hi pal, thanks for the latest "sheet" I've just been looking at this purely from a statistical p.o.v and decided to filter that table into players that rank in the top 50 of all 4 categories and we are left with: Steve Stricker K.J. Choi Stephen Ames Charles Howell III David Toms Jeff Maggert Joe Durant Justin Rose The top 4 are all ranked "1" in winning ability whilst the bottom 4 are all ranked "45" in winning ability. So would it be a smart idea to use the "best" bottom 4 guy as a top 10 finish bet and the "best" top for guy from the list above as a e/w pick to win it all? If that was the case to win .... Stricker is the best player but is short so maybe a chance on Ames or Howell at better odds could be the pick. And given the small difference overall between them two id go with Ames as he has higher odds. the top 10 pick ... how about Maggert/Durant both top 10 picks they are not much worse overall than Toms yet are miles bigger in the prices. Again sorry if this is a flawed way of looking at it, I wondered if you agreed or disagreed entirely with this logic of thinking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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